Some (of the many) myths about the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season
“Surely nobody saw the sorry collection of talent I overpaid to assemble proceed to underachieve spectacularly. At least, I hope nobody saw that.”
According to Doc Funk, this is what Bryan Colangelo is saying when he talks about the ‘failings’ of Chris Bosh. More power to you Mr Funk. But to totally take this quote out of perspective, it applies to so many other things in life apart from bad Toronto Raptor player contracts. Like fantasy picks. Over-priced, half-baked players (not just Michael Beasley) who get by on past achievements and their good looks (and not just Joakim Noah). The rankings have started to appear but the mainstream, like everything else mainstream, often gets the easiest things wrong because popularity trumps smarts these days in almost every arena. So let’s break down some of the myths about certain fantasy players for the upcoming season.
Tyreke Evans > Rondo/Kidd: This just doesn’t add up for me. The Kings have all of a sudden become a pretty impressive list. They have added a legit power forward beast in DeMarcus Cousins who is going to be demanding the ball. Carl Landry is slotting in off the bench. Sam Dalembert is going have a ridiculous TRB%. At the start of last year it was the Jason Thompson sleeper contest. This year he is hardly talked about, indicating their depth. Francesco Garcia is back from his bouncy ball injury and Omri Casspi has grown up another year and is ready to showcase in cities apart from just New York. Evans isn’t going to get the opportunity to go improve on his 20/5/5 which by the way, was ONLY achieved because the whole organisation from the GM and coach down were spoon feeding him minutes to get to those stats. In March, he averaged a minute and a half more than his season average, despite playing for a team without a chance at making the playoffs. Everyone marks down Derrick Rose not being able to hit three’s, but Evans only managed .5 per game. Plus at the guard, like Rondo, he is destroying your FT% (75% on 6.5 per). The difference? Rondo is a legitimate triple double threat every single night whereas Evans is still learning the game on a beefed up team. Let it be clear. I’m not Evans hater. I just don’t see him above Kidd or Rondo on the PG pecking order this season. Point guards are meant to steal and get assists. Extra scoring and boards never hurt anyone, but if you can’t do the fundamentals of your position to an extremely high standard, you lose marks and fantasy value in my books.
Gilbert Arenas anywhere near Mo Williams (as seen on the Buser big board): This scares me. If there is only one player who could symbolize a Do Not Draft list, it would be Arenas. Two seasons destroyed by knee injuries. One season destroyed by gun charges. At least when Yao goes down he does it with style. Mo Williams has never been the man. He only lasted one season at the Jazz and with the Bucks there was always someone in front of him (Michael Redd of all people). Of course, at the Cavs all he has had to do is occasionally bring the ball up, knock down a couple of free throws per game and camp outside the three point line. This all changes. Mo Williams is THE MAN in Cleveland. Antwan Jamison is too old, J.J Hickson is too young. He is going to have a major season. And everyone is going to wait for him to fall for them. Be brave, take him early. And if you are even thinking about Arenas before the late 5th round, go watch some John Wall mix tapes and get back to me.
Paul Millsap not being awesome: If the last one scared me, this CBS ranking page is like a all consuming black hole. Now I know CBS uses some whacky points based system which is impossible to understand, but here are a few of the names of the ‘forwards’ before Millsap (who comes in at #56… not total… excluding all guards and centers). Corey Brewer; Thad Young; Shawn Marion; Grant Hill; and my personal favorite, the afore mentioned Jason Thompson at #47. Now Millsap isn’t going to light it up this season even with Boozer having exited stage right. Okur and Al Jefferson will soak up minutes, but this is the same Millsap who played in every game last season and managed 11.6 points/6.8 boards/1.2 blocks with 53% from the field in less than 28 minutes. With more opportunity (and that’s what he will get this season), these numbers will spike. But even if they didn’t, that list of hacks still shouldn’t be appearing on any rankings list come October.
Cheer up Perk, you don't have to sit with Mr. Glum anymore (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
Bill Walker playing more minutes than Kelenna Azubuike: You remember Bill Walker right? Sure you do. Celtics bench warmer. Good at looking glum. Has crazy eyes. Well, he arrived in NYC last season and found out that he was actually allowed on the court long enough to score some points. However, this Yahoo depth chart (dated 29 July) must be some sort of sycophant because it has him as the starting two guard! Sheesh. I guess all that time backing up Ray Allen must have taught him to shoot right? Well he did manage to knock down some three’s in the 27 games he did play but this was because Chris Duhon was the next best shooter after Gallo. But now this Knicks team doesn’t need Walker and his ability to mop up minutes while others are injured or should not be playing. Azubuike though, he can straight up ball. Injured for the majority of last season with the Warriors, the year before he was an actual effective player. 32 minutes per game, 14 and 5, with near 1-1-1 extras. Nothing to jump up and down about, but a lot more than anything you will see from Bill Walker this season.
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In some non-fantasy stuff. I just want to say, there are some very funny people on the internet. I know this stuff has probably been seen before, but it makes me laugh and on the off chance others haven’t seen it, check it out.
Followed closely by;
http://jeskeets.tumblr.com/post/866956695/kids-have-no-idea-how-much-money-nba-players-make
The real reason CP3 is staying with the Hornets.
Other basketball related stuff;
Best contracts under $40m by Hardwood P.
Fantasy outlook for the Rockets by GMTR.
And best of all, three fantasy experts (no, really) in the form of Jeff Andriesse, Tom Lorenzo and Greg Fox are having a live blog in about 3 hours by my count (Noon, American Eastern Standard Time). Check it out at Damn Lies and Statistics.
Playoffs 2010, Fantasy 2011?
What the NBA playoffs are telling us about future fantasy options.
Brandon Jennings is the real deal.
While some people might have their doubters about a young PG who shoots so much and lacks a proper haridresser, the reality is that the kid can get it done when required. In the Bucks first playoff game against a far superior Hawks team, Jennings had a game high 34 points, while shooting 4 three pointers and 56% from the field. During the last season his field goal shooting was a serious liability but nearly all second year guards make a leap in this regard (see Westbrook, Russell and Mayo, O.J as this years prime examples). He also struggled to provided a consistent source of assists. There were only three against the Bucks, but with Salmons creating his own shot and Kurt Thomas starting at Center, this was always going to be the case. Next season should see more minutes, more effective choices and a lower assist:turnover ratio. There will be a house full of quality point guards next season in Fantasy but if you are after a solid middle round pick, Jennings is your guy. This type of game should become more commonplace as his career lengthens.
Kevin Garnett still has stock as a fantasy option.
It’s not high after the past two seasons being marred by injury, but he has said himself numerous times, he has the will to keep playing at that high level and expects to fully recover this off-season from the various ailments and bone spurs which have been bothering him. Now, if you’re a risk adverse fantasy player, you won’t be touching KG. On the other hand, 16 points, 9 boards, 60% from the field with a few steals and blocks thrown in is nothing to laugh up. I don’t want to be advocating the next 2011 version of Elton Brand, but when I’m looking for value in the early-middle rounds on draft day, I won’t be ignoring this former number one pick. As Doctor DRE would say, “don’t forget about me (KG)”.
Jermaine O’Neal will not shoot +50% from the field again. Ever.
If you haven’t had a chance to catch game one, have a sneak peak at the poor shooting and down right terrible decision making by JON. Unless he ends up in New York or Golden State, his days as a fantasy relevant Center are fading quickly. I’ll acknowledge he was playing against top tier defense, but Kendrick Perkins wasn’t even playing that well. O’Neal missed several 18 footers, missed opportunities around the rim and even air balled a put back offensive rebound. Yuck. It’s not a good sign when that kind of stuff has been your bread and butter for the majority of your career.
Paul Millsap is going to be a quality 2nd tier PF/C.
As Money Memo went down (and in my opinion, taking the Jazz with him) for the rest of the season, Millsap stepped in for 37 minutes. In that time, he had 15 points, 10 boards, 3 blocks and shot 7 from 13 from the field. He might not have the finesse under the hoop of Boozer, but he can block, which adds a whole other dimension. Fantasy watchers have been waiting for 2 solid seasons for the Jazz and Boozer to set Millsap free and if you want him in your team next year, you will have to act very quickly on draft day.
Chauncey Billups will never get old.
Well, that’s a lie. But it doesn’t seem like it at the moment. And for me, that’s a little bit of a concern. I know next season he will keep dropping three’s, dishing out assists and having a free throw percentage to die for, but I don’t know if he is early second round material anymore. He was sloppy with the ball against the Jazz (3 turnovers in 29 minutes). He will have Ty Lawson sitting behind him, willing his coach to play him more minutes. This is not to say Billups isn’t going to be a great player next season. He will be. BUt more in the getting pretty old, good dude to keep around the clubhouse, type role. HIs minutes will dip because they can. Even in this game, Lawson clocked in for 21 minutes. Not an insignificant amount. I hate even writing this about him because he seems like one of the best players to have on a team, but I am steering clear until the third round. The next group of uber PG’s (Rose, Curry) are already passed him.
Andrew Bynum is worth the risk.
Now, this one might be a non-starter with many people. I know many owners will have been burned by Bynum is the past two years and is probably near the top of many ‘do not draft’ lists, along with GIlbert Arenas and Elton Brand amongst others. However, Bynum is young. He is a stud. To top it off, he plays alongside another 7 footer. I know this first playoff performance was against an OKC team which lacks any kind of depth in the middle, but Bynum will see this a lot in the future. He had 13 points, 12 boards and 4 blocks. I see him putting up big numbers next year with Kobe demanding less of his teammates. The Lakers don’t have that much offensive fire power apart from Bryant and Gasol, so this will mean great things for the big fella. If you can stomach the injury risk, he is a handy middle round Center who could explode and mark his name on the map in fantasy 2010-11!
Some further reading:
