Fantasy Basketball and that time of the year
Are all your friends talking about fantasy football and how awesome it is because they just drafted Chris Johnson? Chumps. It’s that time of the year for fantasy basketball where all news is boring news (see: Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets and figuring out why so many people care about Rudy Fernandez despite him being a minimal role player at best).
Jason finished up our two man mock draft over at fbasketballblog. Here is round 13. I was going to do a full blown recap, but for a August mock draft, I thought it was a bit excessive. Instead, I’ll go with the best and worst picks in my eyes. First, Michael Beasley as a 6th rounder? Seriously, what was I thinking? While I was trying to slot him into a real ‘fantasy’ team (this sentence doesn’t make sense thus far), it was an epic fail. The T’Wolves actually have some talent as opposed to last year and Beasley hasn’t exactly shown much to date even as the second option on a shitty team. D- for this pick. Jason snagged Monta in the third round. It isn’t in the same ball park as the B-Easy variety, but I still think this is pretty high for a scorer who is going to be reduced to the third option on the Warriors team which has great uncertainty around the coach. But, I can live with it. Also, Dwight Howard should really make an appearance in the first round but each to their own. Good picks? D-Will at #8 even though I would have taken him above Granger and Gasol personally but still some people aren’t sold. The fact that he does nearly everything shouldn’t put you off people. Turkoglu in the 5th is a risky in the extreme but I LOVE it. Same with Ray Felton. Bogut in the 4th was probably my best as he is top shelf these days. It was good fun reading what another person thought about the direction of individual teams and how certain players matched up. So cheers Jason, until next year. Speaking of, see this post if you are interested in a mock draft next Thursday.
Since I have nothing original to say, I’m going to take the liberty to comment on other people’s work. I am trying to slog away at a beginners guide and player list, but it’s still awhile away yet.
Over at a relatively new blog (from what I can tell), Life is Just a Fantasy… Basketball Blog, there is a whole bunch of stuff about individual players and what the coming season holds for them. He likes Reggie Williams but has a distinct distaste for Greg Oden (Shame!). Perhaps some of you know my like of all things which came out of the 2007 draft and that’s why I shed tears when I see predictions ranging from the 10th to the 12th round in most people’s predictions. It’s his time to shine and it’s going to happen. That’s all I’ll say at this stage. Just be glad when your 8th round pick starts putting up 12-12-3 every night.
Give Me The Rock have their awesome, fantastically wonderful NBA schedule up already. This year it comes with improvements in the form of the entire NBA schedule, a weekly fantasy schedule, a daily schedule and a team comparison chart. I dunno what more you could ask for? Some pizza pie I suppose. Also, Nels breaks down the Denver Nuggets and Erik tackles the Milwaukee Bucks, nearly making up for the fact he wrote off Andrew Bogut last season… =) I agree with both these guys on most things except I never touch Chris Anderson (mostly because he scares the shit out of me) and I’m not loving Drew Gooden because Luc Mbah Morte is an athletic freak of nature who is going to dominate defensively in the near future and Scott Skiles loves defense. Also, Drew Gooden will have moved teams by Mid-November.
Fantasy Basketball Daily breaks down the SG position for this season. Unsurprisingly Kobe and Dwyane feature on the list. Somewhat more surprisingly, O.J Mayo comes in at #6. I love it, but I think most people will wait on him and go for the likes of Kev-Mart, Manu and Ray-Ray before they touch Mayo. He is also high on Mike Miller. If you are in need of three’s at any point, grab him and start smiling wildly. For Facebook fans, here is the new Fantasy Basketball Daily fan page.
And finally, Dr. A over at Rotoworld has a new Q&A column up which I’m sure most people have already seen if you read anything about fantasy basketball. Some of the questions are daunting indeed. On the Darren Collison question, I think he ranks ahead of Mo Williams, Aaron Brooks and John Wall. Of course, this depends on if you value assists more so than FG% or TOs.
Come next week, there will be some actual creative writing instead of rounding up other people’s hard earned keyboard strokes. Since there are other sites doing collective teams and in-depth positional looks, I will try and focus on a few things which get overlooked from my perspective. Like how an ageing Jason Kidd is still infinitely times better than anything Devin Harris will attempt on a basketball court in the 2010-11 season and a few strategy pieces which need rehashing (point guards and power forwards is so 2006).
Overrated In a Napoleon Dynamite kind of way: Fantasy Basketball at it’s most awkward
Whats the most overrated film you have ever seen? It might have actually been a decent film, but despite the best efforts of your friends to convince you otherwise, you just don’t think it’s the next To Kill A Mockingbird (the actual greatest film of all time). For me, it has to be Napoleon Dynamite. Funny? Yes. Hilarious? No. And what’s with all the stupid red indie t-shirts? Get bent Napoleon Dynamite. Anyway, to try and draw a comparison, these are just a few players who I think will be overrated in the upcoming season.
Let me make it clear before I begin. They don’t suck. Some will even get drafted pretty early. Just I think, personally, many of them will go way before their time because of their name, past achievements or the inevitable hype machine which surrounds certain players.
Stephen Jackson: I hear your cries. He’s so awesome. No-one else at the Bobcats knows how to shoot. Ray Felton has left which will boost his assist totals. I understand all this. But here are the underlying foundations of the S-Jax bandwagon. The Bobcats are the most offensively challenged NBA team. Even though they might score more points than other teams at times, this is purely by fluke. With this new found offensive responsbility will come a drop in FG% (from 42.3%, if that’s even possible), an increase in turnovers (hello 4+ per game to lead the league) and more worries about moodiness than any manager can handle. There is a real possibility he will put up 20/5/5, but for that chance, you will have to snap him up in the third round. The risk? He ends up averaging 17/4/4 with two category killers. Yuck. Overrated factor: The Matrix Reloaded.
Darko Milicic: There has been a lot of talk about Milicic recently thanks to his new contract. TrueHoop has a bet and HP wrote one of my favorite articles of the off-season about him. All of this equals predictions verging on the range of stupid. I’ll lay this one on you. My housemate (let’s call him LITTOGA – love in the time of Gilbert Arenas) is a pretty big fantasy fan. He freely admits he hasn’t been following the off-season that strongly but laid down the claim that Darko could average 4+ assists per game this season. 4!!!! This was later revised to 3 after a little thought. Let’s check out the facts. The T’Wolves offense is as much of a triangle as David Khan’s forehead. Milicic has never averaged more than 1.8 assists per game (this was last season in 24 games with Minny). Darko has played for 5 teams in 5 seasons. I’ll accept that he could perhaps have his best season ever, say 10 points, 8 boards, 1.5 blocks, 2 assists but this still isn’t good enough to crack the majority of fantasy leagues before the 12th round. Lesson: Trust the past. Overrated factor: John Mayer’s Fourth Studio album (no-one actually rates it at all, just your weirdo housemate. True story.)
John Wall: There will be disagreement here. However wait until you start playing on the shiny Yahoo mock draft toy and see Wall’s name start coming off in the mid-fourth round in September and watch it creep up to the third by late October. It’s going to happen. And sure, you can go ahead and pick him there if you like watching your money disappear late at nights in dark casino’s, but the fact is, he is an untested point guard in a strange back court situation. It’ll be like having the good jesus and bad jesus sitting on your shoulders with Hinrich and Arenas. Hinrich looks smart, says the right things, plays the right part and tries to teach while Arenas seems to be having all the fun, pulling all the ladies and getting all the laughs. If I was an impressionable 19 year old kid, I know what I’d be doing and it doesn’t involve listening to classical music post-game with the big K-dog. Wall will be a talented PG this season, but if you even think of taking him before 2nd tier picks like Earl Baron Davis, Derrick Rose or even my boy Ray Felton, your dreaming sunshine. Overrated factor: Sarah Palin, circa July 2008.
Hedo Turkoglu: The big Turk has escaped the rotten land of Canada for the more yellow pastures of Arizona and everyone thinks it’s a great move! More minutes, more smiling, more Steve Nash. It’s all good. But it’s only a certain amount of good if you get my drift. Remember, this is the same Hedo who liked to dance up a storm the night before games in Toronto and once so utterly confused people with his ‘ball’ speech for no apparent reason. Anyway, more factual evidence is required I feel. Forget 2008-09 (16/5/5, 1.7 treys) and start thinking about 2010-11 (14/6/4 with 1.2 treys). Sure, the difference isn’t amazing but it’s enough to not start thinking about the big bad Turk until a bit later than the jerk who just took him in the 4th round. Overrated factor: Heineken beer.
Manu Ginobili: Yeah, I’m look at you Jason. Don’t shake your head silently at your computer screen. Manu is a freak. The things he does on the Spurs when no-one else wants to do it is incredible. The problem is, sometimes Timmy D and Tony P do show up, and then he sort of cruises through games in 2nd gear. Last season was actually very productive for Manu. 16/4/5 with nearly 2 treys, wicked FT% and 1.4 steals. That’s delicious in 28 minutes a night. However it’s not third round delicious especially when you consider he still missed 7 games but that was somehow his lowest since 2003-04. Injuries, upcoming talent (George Hill, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair) all mean less touches for old dudes and the slow but inevitable transformation of the San Antonio Spurs. I would still be a Manu taker, but only in the mid-late 4th round and only if your team desperately needs assists/treys from a 2 guard spot. Overrated factor: The American Soccer Team (a draw with England isn’t anything to celebrate just quietly)
Monta Ellis: Here is where the fun begins. Monta is my prediction for one of the biggest drop offs in individual output this season. The Warriors are now firmly Stephen Curry’s team. Monta will see as much ball as Curry allows. Curry’s individual brilliance will be first option, closely followed by David Lee in the front court with a distant Monta number three on the pecking order. This isn’t necessarily a bad spot to be when your at the Warriors for fantasy production, but Mr Moped is going to seriously struggle to put up 25 points per game this season. 20 points? Sure. More than 5 assists? Never again. 3.8 turnovers? He will probably still manage even without the ball handling duties. You can bank the steals and an ever increasing three point production, but as a 2nd round pick? This scares the shit out of me. Overrated factor: Tony Romo, circa August every year.
I’ve got another 4 names sitting just below, but I might save them for a slow news day next week. If anyone can guess all 4 though, you can have a cookie. Hints: One brash young upstart, one overpaid 3 point camper, only one Atlanta Hawk (that’s a surprise) and one Team USA player who turns 86 at some point this season.
Other stuff….
GiveMeTheRock does the Charlotte Bobcats (also their latest player rankings)
Breaking down the Miami Heat, Guns N’ Roses Style over at FantasyBasketballDaily
The last round of Damn Lies and Statistics mock draft
This is a pretty interesting topic over at Matt Buser’s forum. First round H2H rankings. Some interesting speculation to say the least. Favorite quote to date? “Dwight Howard is the most overrated fantasy player of all time imo.”
Speaking of Mr Buser, an updated Yahoo Big Board
The Way It Had To End
Today I lost my fantasy final due to three factors. Below I rank them. But first, a quick recap. I had the number four pick in the draft and took Kevin Durant. Yeah, I know. I’m just that good. But more seriously, I lost by 18 points and 5 three pointers. Pretty devastating.
1) Stephen Curry.
How was I to know this little punk ass kid would destroy everything that was good in the world? For those of you who believe rookies are not worthy of fantasy basketball drafts (and looking ahead to Evan Turner and John Wall), here are Curry’s April stats (last 8 games). 26.4 points, 6.4 boards, 8.1 assists, 2.6 steals, 3.1 triples, 46.9% from the field, 89.5% from the stripe. OK, he only blocks 0.4 shots per game and turns the ball over 3.1 times per. But. BUT. Those stats rank him as the number one player in the game over that period. Yeah, I said it. Number one.
I was involved in an interesting argument this afternoon in my fantasy league chatter as to where he would fall in next year’s draft (because, you know, 5 minutes before the last games end, it’s time to start thinking about that stuff). I nearly fell out of my chair when people seriously thought he would be available at the end of the second round. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? This guy is a stud and unless Don Nelson gets fired or hit by a bus, 2010-11 is the Stephen Curry coming out party. When you can hit 26 foot pull up transition three pointers with finesse similar to the way Eddie House wears his jewerly on the bench, then things are heading in the right direction.
Needless to say, in my final, Curry dropped 167 points, 19 threes, 39 boards, 43 assists, had 17 steals, hit every second shot and nailed 93.8% of his free throws. Thanks for nothing Stephen. I’ll be seeing you in the FIRST round next year.
2) Lamar Odom is a liability.
Yeah, that’s right. I said it. Here is my prediction for the NBA Finals. The Cavs vs. some team not the Lakers. That’s about as technical as I get. Fun facts about LO this season. He attempted 182 three pointers, good for over 2 per game. Success rate? 31.9%. Yuck. Since he replaced Andrew Bynum in the starting line up on March 21, the Lakers are 6-7 with losses to teams including the Clippers and the Hornets. Admitedly, today’s loss against the Clippers saw some starters sitting. But here is a question, shouldn’t your bench and some starters be able to beat the Clippers if you want to go anywhere in the playoffs? Answer: No.
No-one should fall for the Lakers trap next year in fantasy drafts. This is where my rant really gets going. I have a formula which I just thought up. Stick with me. Kobe Bryant is a twat. But he is also surpremely talented. This year, he put up second round numbers because… well… he has played for 14 seasons now. Every season he keeps playing, he is going to drop a draft round. Facts to back this up? None. YET. But watch his FG% slip. Watch his FT attempts slide. Watch his assist:turnover ratio climb. I don’t care how many buzzer beaters you make. I’m not taking him before 19 next year and by then he’ll be long gone.
3) Brandon Roy is a poor man’s… Monta freakin’ Ellis??
Let’s compare:
Roy: 65 games, 21.5 points, 4.4 boards, 4.7 assists, .473, .780, 1.1 triples, 0.9 steals, 2 turnovers
Ellis: 64 games, 25.5 points, 4.0 boards, 5.3 assists, .449, .753, 1.2 triples, 2.2 steals, 3.8 turnovers
OK. There are a few differences (TOs, steals, percentages are little off) but it’s close enough. Close enough to say that Roy wasn’t even close to Ellis this season.
Roy finished up the season ranked 49 in averages and 66 in total. Umm, yuck? I know he was injured throughout the season. I know he had not one, but two Centers, go down. I know he had a new teammate who apparently can still play a bit. But when I drafted him at number 13 (big deep breath), I really expected some sort of return on my investment. This is what I got. I got Monta Ellis, but worse. How does this even make sense? Why am I still thinking about Stephen Curry?
…
Fantasy is over for another year. And now the fun begins. Thinking about next season…
Congrats to Mexican Landslides in my league who pipped me at the post. Was a pretty stellar rookie season. Don’t expect the free pass next year =)
Thanks to GMTR who organised my other league where, despite a strong finish, I ended up 10th thanks to a combination of Marc Gasol getting the gimps and a general sense of apathy after I missed the top-6 playoffs.
And to everyone else. Here is my top 12 baring obvious big changes which will cause mock draft lists to change 1652 times between now and late October when the next season starts.
Durant, LeBron, CP3, Wade, Curry, Dirk, Granger, Howard, Lopez, D-Will, Bosh, Wallace
…
Awards Watch. Fantasy Hoopster makes some noise. As always, vote in his polls (Tyrus Thomas and Kevin Durant in case you didn’t know by now). I read his stuff whenever it comes out, solid analysis all season long. Hope it continues in 2010-11!
I looked for other links but came up empty. I’m sure there will be some more tomorrow. Or maybe that’s it for the year.
