A worthy cause
Normally I like to think of the internet as a giant, free, ball of goodness. Then you think a little bit harder at your favorite sites and you quickly realise that certain people put in an amazing amount of work to maintain them and keep them awesome and up to date. This is the case is nearly everything which isn’t run for profit and purely for the joy of seeing others enjoy your work or the reward you get from writing, perhaps to escape real life which gets too hard sometimes.
Anyway, my favorite fantasy basketball site is GMTR and unlike last year, they aren’t putting a price on their fantasy advise, despite it being kick ass awesome. More fittingly (at least in my humble eyes), they are asking for donations. Nearly every punk on the internet has a paypal account, so it’s pretty easy, even if it’s only a couple of dollars. As an example of their work, this stuff on effective shooting is probably the one of the most useful and original spreadsheets I have come across this year.
Moving on from the gooey stuff, here are some other links;
Center rankings from Fantasy Hoopster. This stuff is awesome, Centers are the hardest spot to get right in drafts and Fantasy Hoopster has nailed it in this post.
FantasyBasketballDaily has all the updates on the latest bit players, including injuries, starting spots and other stuff.
fBasketballBlog has his take on the top 5 potential busts of the upcoming season. I agree with it all (except where is Rashard Lewis?)
Damn Lies and Statistics does the New Jersey Nets. It’s hard to make the Nets exciting, but there is some success here.
Finally, good luck to everyone drafting this weekend and in the week ahead. Remember, prepare… then throw it all out the window when you see some upside! It’s a philosophy where you might not win but you’ll have fun.
Fantasy Basketball and that time of the year
Are all your friends talking about fantasy football and how awesome it is because they just drafted Chris Johnson? Chumps. It’s that time of the year for fantasy basketball where all news is boring news (see: Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets and figuring out why so many people care about Rudy Fernandez despite him being a minimal role player at best).
Jason finished up our two man mock draft over at fbasketballblog. Here is round 13. I was going to do a full blown recap, but for a August mock draft, I thought it was a bit excessive. Instead, I’ll go with the best and worst picks in my eyes. First, Michael Beasley as a 6th rounder? Seriously, what was I thinking? While I was trying to slot him into a real ‘fantasy’ team (this sentence doesn’t make sense thus far), it was an epic fail. The T’Wolves actually have some talent as opposed to last year and Beasley hasn’t exactly shown much to date even as the second option on a shitty team. D- for this pick. Jason snagged Monta in the third round. It isn’t in the same ball park as the B-Easy variety, but I still think this is pretty high for a scorer who is going to be reduced to the third option on the Warriors team which has great uncertainty around the coach. But, I can live with it. Also, Dwight Howard should really make an appearance in the first round but each to their own. Good picks? D-Will at #8 even though I would have taken him above Granger and Gasol personally but still some people aren’t sold. The fact that he does nearly everything shouldn’t put you off people. Turkoglu in the 5th is a risky in the extreme but I LOVE it. Same with Ray Felton. Bogut in the 4th was probably my best as he is top shelf these days. It was good fun reading what another person thought about the direction of individual teams and how certain players matched up. So cheers Jason, until next year. Speaking of, see this post if you are interested in a mock draft next Thursday.
Since I have nothing original to say, I’m going to take the liberty to comment on other people’s work. I am trying to slog away at a beginners guide and player list, but it’s still awhile away yet.
Over at a relatively new blog (from what I can tell), Life is Just a Fantasy… Basketball Blog, there is a whole bunch of stuff about individual players and what the coming season holds for them. He likes Reggie Williams but has a distinct distaste for Greg Oden (Shame!). Perhaps some of you know my like of all things which came out of the 2007 draft and that’s why I shed tears when I see predictions ranging from the 10th to the 12th round in most people’s predictions. It’s his time to shine and it’s going to happen. That’s all I’ll say at this stage. Just be glad when your 8th round pick starts putting up 12-12-3 every night.
Give Me The Rock have their awesome, fantastically wonderful NBA schedule up already. This year it comes with improvements in the form of the entire NBA schedule, a weekly fantasy schedule, a daily schedule and a team comparison chart. I dunno what more you could ask for? Some pizza pie I suppose. Also, Nels breaks down the Denver Nuggets and Erik tackles the Milwaukee Bucks, nearly making up for the fact he wrote off Andrew Bogut last season… =) I agree with both these guys on most things except I never touch Chris Anderson (mostly because he scares the shit out of me) and I’m not loving Drew Gooden because Luc Mbah Morte is an athletic freak of nature who is going to dominate defensively in the near future and Scott Skiles loves defense. Also, Drew Gooden will have moved teams by Mid-November.
Fantasy Basketball Daily breaks down the SG position for this season. Unsurprisingly Kobe and Dwyane feature on the list. Somewhat more surprisingly, O.J Mayo comes in at #6. I love it, but I think most people will wait on him and go for the likes of Kev-Mart, Manu and Ray-Ray before they touch Mayo. He is also high on Mike Miller. If you are in need of three’s at any point, grab him and start smiling wildly. For Facebook fans, here is the new Fantasy Basketball Daily fan page.
And finally, Dr. A over at Rotoworld has a new Q&A column up which I’m sure most people have already seen if you read anything about fantasy basketball. Some of the questions are daunting indeed. On the Darren Collison question, I think he ranks ahead of Mo Williams, Aaron Brooks and John Wall. Of course, this depends on if you value assists more so than FG% or TOs.
Come next week, there will be some actual creative writing instead of rounding up other people’s hard earned keyboard strokes. Since there are other sites doing collective teams and in-depth positional looks, I will try and focus on a few things which get overlooked from my perspective. Like how an ageing Jason Kidd is still infinitely times better than anything Devin Harris will attempt on a basketball court in the 2010-11 season and a few strategy pieces which need rehashing (point guards and power forwards is so 2006).
Things are getting real: The (Fantasy) NBA Schedule Arrives
Well boys and girls, the NBA schedule was released today and what a day it is. This might not mean much to your average fan, but it fantasy guru’s all over the internet it means the first look at what will determine many things to come this season. When you set your weekly line ups, make sure you are checking these things out.
I’ll have something to put up as a tool just for ease of use, but it won’t be available for awhile. So while we wait for that, let’s take a peek at what two others have already achieved in a very short time frame.
First up, Doneycat over at Tales Of 9 Cats has dumped his early analysis on us. Manual counting? For The Win. As he poignantly observes in his dot points there are 3 teams this season with a 5 game week as opposed to last season when it was just the lonesome Bucks. His post comes accompanied with scheduling grids just for your pre pre-season analysis. A big tick from me.
A little bit more high tech, but not as many ghetto points, NBA Stuffer has some rest days analysis. While this doesn’t actually help you that much in regards to setting rosters, it does tell you a lot about those teams which might rest up players because they are about to play an epic amount of games in a row. For example, who has the most amount of 1 rest days? The Lakers (no surprises there) and Suns, each with 38. This is compensated for the fact that they both only have 15 2/3+ day rest breaks. Compare this to the Bucks who only have 22 single day breaks, but more than make up for this with 24 2/3+ day breaks. The major factor here is TV scheduling I feel. But this is pretty important stuff if you are into your hardcore fantasy. You can also break it down by opponent team breaks for charting out how strong the opposition will be.
I’m sure a lot more (free) schedulers will pop up over time. When I stumble across them, I’ll try and remember to link to them so you can choose the one you want to use.
Also, please note. Many websites will offer you their best attempt at a ‘scheduler’ help tool for some small price. But there will be a heap of free stuff, just as good (if not better) available from fantasy hoops sites around so don’t fret and have a little patience while people put them all together. As some examples, GMTR did an amazing google docs of the 2009-10 schedule last year which was nice and simple to bookmark and check while Basketball Free for All had a top shelf downloadable excel spreadsheet which blew my mind and was a bit more detailed (but not as easy to quickly check).
Overrated In a Napoleon Dynamite kind of way: Fantasy Basketball at it’s most awkward
Whats the most overrated film you have ever seen? It might have actually been a decent film, but despite the best efforts of your friends to convince you otherwise, you just don’t think it’s the next To Kill A Mockingbird (the actual greatest film of all time). For me, it has to be Napoleon Dynamite. Funny? Yes. Hilarious? No. And what’s with all the stupid red indie t-shirts? Get bent Napoleon Dynamite. Anyway, to try and draw a comparison, these are just a few players who I think will be overrated in the upcoming season.
Let me make it clear before I begin. They don’t suck. Some will even get drafted pretty early. Just I think, personally, many of them will go way before their time because of their name, past achievements or the inevitable hype machine which surrounds certain players.
Stephen Jackson: I hear your cries. He’s so awesome. No-one else at the Bobcats knows how to shoot. Ray Felton has left which will boost his assist totals. I understand all this. But here are the underlying foundations of the S-Jax bandwagon. The Bobcats are the most offensively challenged NBA team. Even though they might score more points than other teams at times, this is purely by fluke. With this new found offensive responsbility will come a drop in FG% (from 42.3%, if that’s even possible), an increase in turnovers (hello 4+ per game to lead the league) and more worries about moodiness than any manager can handle. There is a real possibility he will put up 20/5/5, but for that chance, you will have to snap him up in the third round. The risk? He ends up averaging 17/4/4 with two category killers. Yuck. Overrated factor: The Matrix Reloaded.
Darko Milicic: There has been a lot of talk about Milicic recently thanks to his new contract. TrueHoop has a bet and HP wrote one of my favorite articles of the off-season about him. All of this equals predictions verging on the range of stupid. I’ll lay this one on you. My housemate (let’s call him LITTOGA – love in the time of Gilbert Arenas) is a pretty big fantasy fan. He freely admits he hasn’t been following the off-season that strongly but laid down the claim that Darko could average 4+ assists per game this season. 4!!!! This was later revised to 3 after a little thought. Let’s check out the facts. The T’Wolves offense is as much of a triangle as David Khan’s forehead. Milicic has never averaged more than 1.8 assists per game (this was last season in 24 games with Minny). Darko has played for 5 teams in 5 seasons. I’ll accept that he could perhaps have his best season ever, say 10 points, 8 boards, 1.5 blocks, 2 assists but this still isn’t good enough to crack the majority of fantasy leagues before the 12th round. Lesson: Trust the past. Overrated factor: John Mayer’s Fourth Studio album (no-one actually rates it at all, just your weirdo housemate. True story.)
John Wall: There will be disagreement here. However wait until you start playing on the shiny Yahoo mock draft toy and see Wall’s name start coming off in the mid-fourth round in September and watch it creep up to the third by late October. It’s going to happen. And sure, you can go ahead and pick him there if you like watching your money disappear late at nights in dark casino’s, but the fact is, he is an untested point guard in a strange back court situation. It’ll be like having the good jesus and bad jesus sitting on your shoulders with Hinrich and Arenas. Hinrich looks smart, says the right things, plays the right part and tries to teach while Arenas seems to be having all the fun, pulling all the ladies and getting all the laughs. If I was an impressionable 19 year old kid, I know what I’d be doing and it doesn’t involve listening to classical music post-game with the big K-dog. Wall will be a talented PG this season, but if you even think of taking him before 2nd tier picks like Earl Baron Davis, Derrick Rose or even my boy Ray Felton, your dreaming sunshine. Overrated factor: Sarah Palin, circa July 2008.
Hedo Turkoglu: The big Turk has escaped the rotten land of Canada for the more yellow pastures of Arizona and everyone thinks it’s a great move! More minutes, more smiling, more Steve Nash. It’s all good. But it’s only a certain amount of good if you get my drift. Remember, this is the same Hedo who liked to dance up a storm the night before games in Toronto and once so utterly confused people with his ‘ball’ speech for no apparent reason. Anyway, more factual evidence is required I feel. Forget 2008-09 (16/5/5, 1.7 treys) and start thinking about 2010-11 (14/6/4 with 1.2 treys). Sure, the difference isn’t amazing but it’s enough to not start thinking about the big bad Turk until a bit later than the jerk who just took him in the 4th round. Overrated factor: Heineken beer.
Manu Ginobili: Yeah, I’m look at you Jason. Don’t shake your head silently at your computer screen. Manu is a freak. The things he does on the Spurs when no-one else wants to do it is incredible. The problem is, sometimes Timmy D and Tony P do show up, and then he sort of cruises through games in 2nd gear. Last season was actually very productive for Manu. 16/4/5 with nearly 2 treys, wicked FT% and 1.4 steals. That’s delicious in 28 minutes a night. However it’s not third round delicious especially when you consider he still missed 7 games but that was somehow his lowest since 2003-04. Injuries, upcoming talent (George Hill, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair) all mean less touches for old dudes and the slow but inevitable transformation of the San Antonio Spurs. I would still be a Manu taker, but only in the mid-late 4th round and only if your team desperately needs assists/treys from a 2 guard spot. Overrated factor: The American Soccer Team (a draw with England isn’t anything to celebrate just quietly)
Monta Ellis: Here is where the fun begins. Monta is my prediction for one of the biggest drop offs in individual output this season. The Warriors are now firmly Stephen Curry’s team. Monta will see as much ball as Curry allows. Curry’s individual brilliance will be first option, closely followed by David Lee in the front court with a distant Monta number three on the pecking order. This isn’t necessarily a bad spot to be when your at the Warriors for fantasy production, but Mr Moped is going to seriously struggle to put up 25 points per game this season. 20 points? Sure. More than 5 assists? Never again. 3.8 turnovers? He will probably still manage even without the ball handling duties. You can bank the steals and an ever increasing three point production, but as a 2nd round pick? This scares the shit out of me. Overrated factor: Tony Romo, circa August every year.
I’ve got another 4 names sitting just below, but I might save them for a slow news day next week. If anyone can guess all 4 though, you can have a cookie. Hints: One brash young upstart, one overpaid 3 point camper, only one Atlanta Hawk (that’s a surprise) and one Team USA player who turns 86 at some point this season.
Other stuff….
GiveMeTheRock does the Charlotte Bobcats (also their latest player rankings)
Breaking down the Miami Heat, Guns N’ Roses Style over at FantasyBasketballDaily
The last round of Damn Lies and Statistics mock draft
This is a pretty interesting topic over at Matt Buser’s forum. First round H2H rankings. Some interesting speculation to say the least. Favorite quote to date? “Dwight Howard is the most overrated fantasy player of all time imo.”
Speaking of Mr Buser, an updated Yahoo Big Board
Some links amongst other things
I don’t have much else to say after that mock draft post below (keep scrolling…) but I have had a pretty ineffective day studying which has a very causative relationship to the amount of fantasy basketball stuff I read.
Anyway, it looks like Hardwoord Paroxysm has got itself a new fantasy analyst, if that is the right term, which it isn’t. Allen Law, aka Djturtleface from FreeDarko fame, has a new column which promises to be weekly, and more importantly, a bit of a different look at fantasy teams. Reading his dot points at the bottom, I’m pretty excited to follow this. Here is the first post.
TalesOf9Cats has a new interview up, this time with Jason from fBasketballBlog and the DIME magazine fantasy specialist. It’s engaging and has some pretty interesting stuff. I really like the Q&A format. It’s something original and gives good insight into how others think, together with a dose of personality, which can often be missing in fantasy basketball talk. Here is the interview.
This is the greatest fantasy trophy in the world. Pity about the price but if you are super serious, check it out.
There are many ‘untruths’ about fantasy basketball. This is one of them, talking about there being no bad draft position in fantasy basketball. Seriously, if you argument is that you will voluntarily take draft spot #12, you are a dick. Plain and simple. This up coming season for instance, I would LOVE a top 3 pick. After that, I would prefer a 10-12 pick, because stuff dealing with working out where to pick Dirk/Kobe/Wade/Granger etc. Plus, I know I can still get Amar’e or Curry at #10 and that’s all that matters.
Damn Lies and Statistics have moved onto the 9th round of their 4 man mock draft. There are some interesting decisions (remembering it’s roto). I like Oden, Hibbert and Thomas, but I am very wary of Calderon and JaVale McGee. I mean, c’mon man, McGee?? I saw that kid in the flesh last season and he looked like he would struggle in a game of pick up. Hopefully he is improved and the starting spot at the Wizards gives him fantasy value but I like my 9th round centers with a bit more meat on them. Note: they still haven’t picked Vince Carter. A sign of the future I feel.
Finally, for those of you into podcasts. I know most people know of The Disciples of Clyde and don’t they need to help getting more listens, but it’s seriously one of the best out there for casual and hardcore NBA fans. It’s fun, easy to comprehend and the ability to connect with ‘regular fans’ is amazing. I really enjoy it. Plus, the music is wicked good. Here is the latest episode (#101).
Where rankings are made
While most fantasy basketball enthusiasts are busy watching their baseball team or having a real life in the summertime, other, more evil hearted people, are conspiring against your team already. 3 months before the season has even nearly begun. Who are these people? Well, if something is wrong with sports, together with the blogosphere having disregard for it, it is only one of two things… Rugby League or ESPN. And since Rugby League should never be mentioned again, we’ll stick with ESPN.
Often those at the top are victim of tall poppy syndrome. See Rudd, Kevin. And often those emotions are completely unwarrented. However I feel safe in saying after ESPN’s last couple of big basketball stories (The Decision, the production of the NBA Finals), that in this case they completely deserve it. But why are they trying to destroy your fantasy team in mid-summer? I don’t know. The proof is here though. The ESPN Fantasy Basketball top 150 rankings. But Brian McKitsh is so cute? But ESPN is the only thing I use when I do my draft prep? Be damned people.
Here are but three issues with the above list (the July 19 Version).
1) There is no preface whatsoever about what type of rankings these area. Roto? H2H? 9 cats? No trade? Lots of trades? Incompetent owners? By having a quick glance, I can nearly deduct that it’s a Head to Head league because Dwight Howard is at number 7 and there is no asterisk near his name. You might casually say, this isn’t a big deal. But this is a MASSIVE deal. ESPN and Yahoo are the two biggest fantasy sites on the net. Nearly all beginners would be getting 95% of their advice from these sites and lists just like this. For Fantasy Basketball to ever grow into a real rival to the MLB or NFL, this sort of stuff has to be sorted out. If, into week three, you see that Dwight Howard is actually going to bust your balls in your newly minted Roto league and he was your first pick, how are you going to feel? Ask Tom Brady owners from two seasons ago. Some people will just have fun regardless, but some will not. They will not come back. They will not play again. It’s pretty simple in my books. A nice two sentence preface about what the list actually represents would go a long way in fantasy basketball circles.
2) Rajon Rondo (#22) and Chris Bosh (#23) have swapped spots since the last update (date unknown but after the Decision). Why did this occur? None of the 21 players above the list swapped places. No-one fell. No-one rose. However Rondo was deemed to have inched ahead of Bosh. Because of… His rad shoes? Well, maybe. But we can’t be sure as there is no explanation for this. I understand the need to get stuff out quickly, meet deadlines and keep things concise so people will read them, but what I don’t understand is how this list works and why people move up and down, because there is no commentary alongside it. And ESPN fantasy basketball analysis can be VERY good, when it takes the time and get’s it right.
3) Risk Aversion in the highest form. The two standouts for me here are Troy Murphy (#43) and Greg Oden (#150). Murphy might not be an amazing player. He is slow, doesn’t really contribute to winning actual basketball games and finds defending is sometimes just too hard. However, he is money in fantasy basketball. M-O-N-E-Y. I know people drop off after awhile, but this a dude who finished top 15 ranked (Yahoo Average Rankings) over the past two seasons and is in a CONTRACT year. C’mon people. 43? Wedged in between Joakim Noah and Baron Davis? B-Diddy??? It makes my blood boil. If you want the best big man to hit open three pointers and grab 10+ boards per game, look no further. The best small ball center in the league. Bar none.
This is where people might start losing me. Greg Oden has killed owners in the past. In fact, anyone who has ever drafted him, has been hurt eventually by his inability to stay on the court. But hear me out. Despite averaging 4.0 fouls per 22 minutes last season, listen to these November numbers. 12.9 points, 64% FG, 7.8 boards, 2.1 blocks AND he doesn’t kill your FT% (66.6% on a low 3.5 attempts for career). OK, so he is no Pau Gasol. True. But this kid (and he is still a kid) is on schedule for 5v5 practice in september and full ability by training camp. Yes, he has been injured. But you know what? So was Andrew Bogut for 4 seasons and now he is ranked #29. Greg Oden has disappointed in the past. But this is a guy who is built to play NBA basketball. He is deft on his feet, swift for a 7 footer and can just be beastly on the defensive end. Don’t reach for him in the 5th round, but the 10th round isn’t out of the question.
This is not meant to sound too harsh on ESPN. They have standards, editors and all sorts of crap I don’t understand. They also have a brand. However I think, despite the fact it’s only a game, as the gorilla in the room, there should be some more explanation around this type of stuff. These lists set the tone for everyone else. Bloggers read them and slowly turn conservative. Beginners read them and might never come back. From here, other lists are dreamed up and populated.
That’s enough ranting. I was planning on something much more positive, but that’ll have to wait until next time (no more stumbling across ESPN in the future).
In the meantime, links!
FantasyHoopster is back at it, as he couldn’t resist the urge to blog in the summertime. Nice. But please note, I do not condone any talk of Anthony Lin after last summer’s Anthony Randolph debacle.
GMTR are working their way through the NBA teams already. And with zingers like this, “At this point, if you’re interested in getting Ford for your pick-up team, Larry Bird wants to speak with you.”, how could you resist? I don’t wanna sound like a LeBron groupie, but Nels and Patrick really set the standard, even in mid-july.
I’ve only just been introduced to Daniel Eade on Twitter, and I don’t agree with much he has to say about LBJ, but it’s an interesting perspective regardless.
A super piece from FBasketballBlog on some myths and truths about fantasy basketball. He’s on the money with the majority of the strategies as well.
Until next time.
Fantasy Basketball Awards 2009-10
I suppose these are not the best player, best 6th man etc etc, but more like awards of how I feel during the fantasy season. Everyone has different opinions in most things fantasy related, this is just my take.
The Fantasy Machine Award – David Lee
Can you think of a more consistent player this season? Sure, for a starting Center he never learnt how to block (0.5 per game) but it seemed every single time I glanced at a Knicks scoreboard, there was a 20 and a 10 staring right back at me alongside Lee’s name. When you throw in his league high 3.6 assists per game, the fact he never misses games and his ridiculous shooting percentages, it all comes into place. And just for kicks, his Yahoo average draft position? 45.6. That’s just nasty.
The What The *&! Award – Al Jefferson
You would be forgiven for thinking that Jefferson was injured for sinigficant amounts of time this season. However, you’d be wrong. He has missed just 6 games this year but more than anything, he has missed the ball in his hands. This season in Minny, he attempted under 15 shots per game. If you want something to compare that against, he had 19 last year and 17 the year before that. Throw a four year low in rebounding (9.2), a three year low in scoring (17.1) and a pretty large regression blocks (1.3, down from 1.7) and you see why owners who took Big Al early in the second round are disappointed. The biggest let down though, is that the potential was there however owners could never tell which Al Jefferson would show up. In March, AJ was 19/11/2 but even that included a 5 game stretch without 10+ boards. Who knows what’s in store next year.
The I Didn’t Know He Could Do That Award – Zach Randolph
While everyone knew he could put up 20/10, no-one really expected it. Nor did anyone think he would fit into Memphis or play every game. Z-Bo proved the doubters wrong and had one of the most productive power forward seasons. He easily compares to players like Carlos Boozer and even Tim Duncan. While he still likes to jack the more than occasional three bomb (29% on 0.7 attempts per game) and struggles on the block (0.4 per game), he kept his turnovers low (2.2) while contributing 20.8 points and 11.7 boards per game. It’s impressive in anyone’s language. You can expect to see him go around the third or fourth round next season.
The I Wish I Had Of Taken Him Award – Marc Gasol
While he has missed a few games at the end of the season, this year’s Yahoo average draft pick number 119 has been a pleasant surprise for owners. I thought his numbers would dip considerably with Da Beet and Z-Bo onboard in Memphis but the more manly of the Gasol brothers stepped up and proved himself. He shot 58.6% from the field on 14.6 points per game, which when paired up with his 9.3 boards and 1.6 blocks per, put him in the conversation with significant 2nd tier fantasy centers.
The I’m Glad I Didn’t Touch Him Award – Greg Oden/Anthony Randolph
The worst thing about Oden is he after owners picked him up on the cheap at the back ends of the draft, he actually played like a demon. 11/8/2 while shooting 60% from the field and under 2 turnovers… all in 24 minutes! He was the bargain of the season. Then just when you everything was going to plan, he does his knee (and takes naughty photos). Just like that, it was over nearly before it even started. Poor Portland? Poor fantasy owners more like it.
At least Oden gave you something. Do you remember the sheer excitement surrounding Ant-Rand back in October? Well. If. You. Dont. Go. Back. And. Look. Phew. Everyone did it. He was a standard 6 round pick. It’s not your fault… blame Don Nelson. Just remember, sometimes the risk isn’t worth the reward and despite all the hype and skills in the world, events can conspire against even the best fantasy prospect.
The I Told You So Award – Andrew Bogut
Now, no-one likes the cocky bloke in the corner, but Andrew Bogut was always going to have a productive fantasy year. It’s such a pity the big fella went down with an awful elbow injury but at least his fantasy doubters are gone for next season. His other worldly 2.5 blocks per game is second only to Dwight in the league, while his 16 and 10 was like gravy all season long. His turnovers? Down (1.9 per game). FT%? Up to a career high (62.9%). Delicious.
The Rookie Award – Steph Curry
I was going to go with ‘Reke because 20/5/5 is damn impressive, but you know what? That’s basically a 2nd rate Joe Johnson and I’m not about that. Curry, the little devil, can do many other things. Like drop 2.1 three bombs per game while still shooting 46% from the field. Throw in 1.9 steals and 87% freebies and you have a winner. Sure, the kid can’t play defense, but that just makes him a better fantasy player in my eyes. Also, anyone sharing a backcourt with Monta Ellis deserves some respect because that dude is a dead set loser. Curry – 2nd rounder next year. Lock it in.
The Old Guy Who Keeps Surprising Everyone Award – Marcus Camby
The three players sitting BEHIND Camby in average stats this season according to Yahoo? Kobe, Boozer and D-Will. Yes, you probably aren’t going to draft him over those guys, but this 86 year old knows how to get it done still. He has never been much of a scorer (7.5 points per game) but boy can he do big man stats with gusto. 2 blocks, nearly 12 boards, 1.3 steals and only 1.2 turnovers per game. In fantasy terms, that’s like bank interest and it just keeps compounding. I dare say he won’t go too early next year, but don’t be surprised when you see him name pop up on the rankings lists once again.
The That Guy Who Didn’t Surprise Anyone Award – Trevor Ariza
I really wanted it all to work out for Ariza. He was the one likeable guy on the Lakers championship squad and they basically screwed him. But what happens when he has to be a star? Epic fail. 39% shooting on nearly 14 shots per game (ouch), 65% from the free throw line and only marginal increases in blocks, steals and boards despite playing 50% more game time (36 minutes per game). Anyone who took Ariza, and most took him after the 8th round according to Yahoo, probably didn’t trust his transformation into a big game player. Well folks, in this case, everyone was right. Perhaps he can turn things around next season with the return of Yao but if you are going to jack up 6 three’s per game, you should try and hit more than 33% of them. Something to work on in the off season.
The Never Again Award – Jose Calderon
In my leagues, no-one liked Calderon. He fell all the way to #44 the league I invest my heart and soul into and even at that spot, he failed to live up to the hype. From my reckoning, there is always something fishy going on if the best thing you do (in this case, free throws), is only happening a tick over twice per game. I don’t care if you shoot 100%, it’s not going to make up for the fact I have Josh Smith playing at the PF. This season, Calderon found… the bench. I’m sure owners were sick of him after 4 weeks, let alone the whole season. Which is a tad ironic, because it was right at the end of the season where he kind of turned it around with some quality games. Next season, you can expect his mock draft spot to be in relative free fall compared to this season.
Some good end of season stuff from around the interwebs:
GiveMeTheRock ask just how good the King and the Durantula really are this season.
NBAMate’s resident fantasy guru has a wrap of the season
Tom Carpenter from ESPN has his fantasy awards while Rotoworld chip in with theirs as well.
C4 fantasy sports with his awards for the season.
Iggy, Crawford and T-Will highlight a solid session of NBA
Headlines
1) Andre Iguodala. The Sixers might not be winning many games recently, but Iggy has stepped it up. Today’s 33 points, 11 assists and 8 boards (4 triples, 5 steals) is just a continuation of his awesome form. In his past 5 games, he is shooting 64%, hitting 2 treys and grabbing 2.5 steals. His Yahoo O-Rank of 22 looks set to rise next season if he keeps it up. If he could shot free throws, he would be a first rounder.
2) Jamal ‘Mad Dog’ Crawford. Sometimes you might think about benching Crawford because ATL has a 3 game week with walk over opponents. Don’t do it. Ever. With J.J out, he led the Hawks with 29 points, 6 treys and 6 assists. Holy Easter Bunny. While he doesn’t do much except shoot and score, the fact that he does it better than anyone else in the league counts for something. Has to be the 6th man of the year. He is another who is set to climb the draft rankings next season.
3) Terrence Williams. I was on the T-Will bandwagon a long time ago… before I fell off it due to lackluster effort. That corner has officially been turned. Williams is showing in the late season that he can do just about anything. Today he has 14 assists (and only 2 turnovers) to go with 14 points. If given the opportunity, this man is going to make a major impact next year. He is a walking small forward double-double. When he increases his field goal percentage (when, not if), he will be the 2008 version of Richard Jefferson.
In Depth – Taj Gibson
All the fancy talk about Rookie of the Year is about Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry, which is more than understandable. What isn’t, is that there is very little talk about Gibson. While he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, he has done a few things others haven’t. He took a starting job off an established position player (Tyrus Thomas). He is still a chance to play in the playoffs. And most importantly, he has shown up to play when most required. In March, with Joakim Noah down and Thomas and Salmons shipped out, Gibson had his best month of his short career. He averaged 10+ points, 8+ boards, 1.3 blocks while shooting 51% from the field and a respectable 76% from the stripe (65% on the year). While the Bulls lost their first 9 games of March, Gibson showed he could play with the best going 9 from 14 against the Cavs and 6 of 10 against the Magic. These little signs are good for the future. In his last game, an 8 point victory over the Bobcats, he grabbed 15 boards even with Noah sitting in the paint to grab 16 of his own. The fact these two can play and gel together is good news for the Bulls and really great news for fantasy production next year. With a summer spent building on already solid fundamentals, this guy will be one to watch next year.
Stockwatch
Buy: Jose Calderon. If you look closely, you will see his struggles are over. 16 and 10, 2 triples and only one turnover. While he still can’t play defense (the above mentioned T-Will walked all over him), at least it should bring a smile to anyone who held onto him all season.
Sell: Andrew Bogut. In what I think is probably one of the saddest on-court stories on the year, Bogut suffered a probable season-ending elbow injury against the Suns today. With the Bucks cruising towards 5th place in the East against all expectations, this throws them into chaos heading into the playoffs.
Hold: Boris Diaw. You never know what you’ll get from the big frenchman (apart from the unexpected). He had 18 points to go with 7 boards and 6 assists against Chi-Town today but he one of the most frustrating players to own for fantasy due to his inconsistency, ability to turn the ball over and inability to hit the deep shots (despite always having a solid go)
Forecast
Basketball Monster says the Warriors have the 4th best schedule over the next week, which includes 4 games. When you mention that those four teams are the Raptors, T’wolves, Clippers and Wizards, it becomes downright juicy. One player in particular has become almost indispensable which is slightly amusing given Yahoo didn’t even have his photo until about 3 weeks ago. Anthony Tolliver, the former D-Leaguer and 6”9 Center is playing for big money next year. This week should cement it. Apart from perhaps the Raptors with Bosh and Bargnani, he will draw the bigger guys out of the paint, run and shoot all day. While this may or may not help the Warriors (who really knows what will happen on any given day), it will certainly be amazing for his fantasy production in the next week. As a starter he is averaging 13 points, 6 boards and 1.5 triples (nearly Bargnani numbers, expect he didn’t come with a 5th round draft pick). This week, you can expect bucket loads more of everything. In his two games against the Clippers so far, he averaged 24 points with 3 triples. Delicious. If there is one thing you can bank on in regard to the Warriors, whatever happens, it’ll be a ride.
Around the League
I may not agree with anything posted here, but it’s an interesting read. Stephen Jackson, your MVP.
And in related news, Jackson or Troy Murphy for keeper league next year? Weigh in here.
A closer look at Iggy’s numbers from today.
And a fantasy round up from GMTR.
What Thunder fans have been waiting for. And a recap of their win from a Mav’s perspective.
This sort of sums up my feelings of the Celtics. Although Bogut being out and them having a 4 seed may change that.
D-Wade is just disgustingly good.
And finally. If you are after a schedule grid, this is the best one I’ve found. While for instant results with a bit of extra, the previously mentioned Basketball Monster is the place to be.
Kevin Durant, John Salmons and Zaza show the world how it’s done
Headlines
1. The only question surrounding Kevin Durant and the Thunder at the moment are how far they will go in the playoffs. KD dropped 37, 8 boards, a perfect 15 from the line with 2 treys, a steal and only 2 turnovers. While the Celtics aren’t exactly what they used to be (sidenote: Kevin Garnett should be more like John Salmons when it comes to talking about the refs as well), Durant had a nearly common place performance which in itself is jaw-dropping. The campaign for a #1 pick in fantasy 2010-11 grows with everyday.
2. John Salmons. Apparently that whole period in Chi-Town was just a super long slump. Against the best team in the league, Salmons had 28 points, 7 assists, 5 boards, 3 triples and was a perfect 7 from the stripe. This man was obviously meant to play for Scott Skiles.
3. You know your in trouble when Zaza Pachulia has a double-double (his first in a season +). The Lakers it seems have dropped off the planet lately. In some aspects, they are downright hurting fantasy teams. Over the last five games, Kobe is 16-23 from the free throw line and averaging 4.4 turnovers, Lamar is shooting 41.5% and Ron-ron is an abysmal 4-22 from downtown. They have lost 3 of these games and look extremely shaky heading into April.
In Depth – O.J Mayo
Mayo’s volume stats have hardly moved an inch from rookie year to sophomore year. Normally, this would be cause for concern for NBA teams but Mayo is doing all the right things at the moment and in the recent past has been putting up some solid numbers for owners. With Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol performing well above average, the fact that Mayo has maintained his excellent rookie start has been impressive.
On the season, he has increased his field goal percentage by .022, a not insignificant increase. He has decreased his turnover rate by 0.6 per game. This are extremely good signs heading into the future as in fantasy he will make his name as a volume shooter and the two things which kill value there are low FG% and any notion of an above-average turnover rate.
In his past five games, he is averaging more than 20 points per game, 2 triples, over 5 rebounds and 3 assists. This is especially handy if you dump assists, as he is PG eligible but still fills it up. Next season, depending on what happens with Rudy Gay, could be a very significant one for Mayo.
Stockwatch
Obviously it’s playoff time and many leagues have stopped trading etc, but this would be in an ideal world.
Buy: Tyreke Evans. The kid is on an absolute tear. He has turned into a consistent triple-double threat, averaging 8.2 boards and 8.7 assists in his last 7 games. Scary good. He has already placed himself in serious early round chatter for drafting next year.
Sell: Jason Maxiell. Despite blowing away opponents for the last month and playing big minutes, his shine is now gone. Ben Wallace has returned to the lineup. Against Miami today, he had 4 minutes and 0 everything.
Hold: Jason Terry. While he exploded today for 29 points in 40 minutes, JET has been up and down recently and cannot be trusted. He is 8 from 23 from deep and depending on what Coach Carlisle thinks, he might get anywhere from 20 to 40 minutes per night.
Forecast
The Hawks play a maximum 6 games over the final playoff game for fantasy and that means Josh Smith, as his put back dunks and recent all round magic have demonstrated already, is in for a monster last effort. ATL is chasing that 3rd seed to avoid the Cavs early so shouldn’t go easy unlike some teams to end the season. Basketball Monster has him as the projected 6th most productive fantasy player next week but I think he’ll top that with some big performances in some massive games for playoff implications including Milwaukee, Cleveland, Charlotte and Toronto. Washington and Detroit will be plain ugly to watch though. All those doubting Tom’s at the season’s start have surely been proven wrong. If you want Smoove on your team next year, you will have to be extremely early to lock him up.
Around the league
A Stern Warning interviews the dudes who made SonicGate
Some quality tweets from NBA players
Breaking down Celtic Shoes
This is Hilarious. Ray Allen, green fog and a collection of awesome songs. What more could you want? (For the best song, scroll through to the 2 minute mark)
GiveMeTheRock with their take on Wednesday’s game
Hardwood on some Celtics talk and KG swearing
