Potential WOW possibilities for fantasy 2010-11
There are always surprises in any given NBA season. Who would’ve thought last season Gerald Wallace would actually play that many games? How about rookies who actually make an impact which wasn’t happening in the past? It’s a surprise because it wasn’t expected (duh) but there are some possibilities which you can dream about and try to visualize. The following are ranked from most probable to least probable in my eyes and should be taken with the appropriate grain(s) of salt. The levels are my attempt to categorize and anyone on this list will provide a little to a lot of risk but the reward if it comes off is delicious.
“Brett Favre deciding to keep playing”: You really won’t be that surprised in this happens because it probably will, only with a shit load of ESPN coverage attached to it. LeBron James could average a triple-double. It’ll be amazing if he does, but will anyone think after the fact that he didn’t have it in him? Lots to be angry about, a renewed motivation to succeed and national coverage up the wazoo. John Wall has shown it all summer and now well into the pre-season but people still have him pegged as a 5-6th rounder most places I look (did see him in the 20s for one draft). Is it impossible to imagine him finishing in the top 20 this season with averaged close to 17 and 9 along with all the gravy? Not really. After the likes of Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry last season, you know rookies have the ability to put up the big numbers, it’s just a matter of time. That doesn’t make it any less impressive.
“Michael Jordan keeping his mouth shut until Christmas”: This is a bit less likely to happen however as the owner of a franchise, you never know. Every time I see the name Derrick Rose in the off-season, it’s always accompanied by the words “improved jump shot”. Despite this happening about every September, there is nary a shred of evidence. But surely it’s going to arrive one day? You can’t shoot 1000 shots a day and regress. Well, maybe you can, but not if you have Rose’s ability. I’m not believing this until I see it, but if you wanna go out on a limb, this is the last facet of his game which will transform him into a fantasy monster. Anthony Randolph must be happy for a new home but he has some stiff competition for minutes in NYC which is a rarity. With Amar’e manning the power forward role and Turiaf/Mozgov chewing up minutes at Center, it’s going to be interesting to see where he fits in. He has a history of not living up to the hype but on sheer athleticism he will get his shot. You’ll need to grab him before #60 I reckon in most leagues despite him being a complete 50/50 at this stage. Elton Brand is not having the same about of hype. People got burned bad last year by punting on him and it seems like no-one is ready to trust him. With an average draft rank at the moment of 88.7 (yahoo leagues), it’s not like you have to reach for him. But with Coach Collins looking to beef up his role and re-establish him as a go to man, it’s not like it’s a totally crazy pick. He has history of performing and while he is over 30, I can see a lot of upside relative to that average pick.
“The 0-5 49ers clinch their division by New Years Eve”: It’s amazing to think that this is an actual possibility but that’s just how bad the NFC West is this year (sorry for non-NFL fans). This isn’t even the worst category! Well, you might cringe at some of the names coming up but I really think there is a 20-30% chance of them hitting the big time (again) and dominating for long stretches of time. Vince Carter is not the guy he used to be. He is wasting shots, turning the ball over and doesn’t know how to be the crunch time scorer Orlando really lacks. But that said, he can still put the ball in the hoop when he tries, can pass a ball and chip in all around the court. If his motivation is high, if Orlando have it’s groove on from the start of the season AND if they are as pissed off about the Heat as they tell everyone, then Carter is going to be a nice addition. People are really ripping on him (and deservedly so) and he is in free fall in most draft lists. But you don’t just lose talent, it just rests dormant until the right time. I’m not expecting this to work out well but if it does, Carter will be a prominent piece on many fantasy rosters which end up winning their respective comps. Some people don’t care about contract years. Silly fools. Andrei Kirilenko is coming into his contract year and needs to perform if he is going to get another payday. The dude can’t rely on his body anymore and he is never going to average those past insane 5+ combined STL/BLKs yet he still holds value. Obviously a lot depends on his body. I can see him slotting onto this Jazz team though like a glove. He doesn’t have the pressure to score a bunch of points (D-Will, Jefferson will be the main options) while still being surrounded by fairly weak defensive players (or below average rebounders). I say AK has that small window to make a big splash at some stage during the season, stringing together some pretty impressive weekly totals. Andrew Bynum is probably a top 3 player on ‘Do Not Draft’ lists at the moment. It’s painful to own him. Week after week, his potential is there in flashes but the amount of games he missed or plays very limited minutes kills owners every matchup. Yet there is this inescapable feeling I get in my bones about him. He is so young, so talented and so freakin’ tall. He is still the future of the Lakers if they want him to be. I don’t have a very high opinion of his body being able to stay connected in all the right places….. but. It’s always the but. The potential is basically limitless. Plus, you can grab him in Round 9-10 in most leagues these days because of his history. I’m not advocating, just dreaming.
“Landing on the Hudson River…. when it’s frozen”: This will not happen unless divine intervention occurs on the basketball court. Still, if it does happen, just sit back and admire because you won’t be able to do anything else. I have always had this crazy fantasy which sits at the back of my head whenever I see Dwight Howard mentioned. Secretly, he knows how to hit free throws. He is just waiting to unleash it because he is such a stand up bloke and doesn’t want to destroy morale in the league by being so utterly dominant. Now I know this is outlandish and, to be frank with myself, pretty stupid on many levels. But if I can teach my under 12 kids to shoot free throws, then one day, Howard is going to wake up and be able to hit free throws. He just has to. It’s like gravity or some shit. It doesn’t have to make sense but there are a whole bunch of laws which only really smart people understand. Getting a bit off topic, but the one thing which gives me the shits more than anything about professional basketball players is not being able to hit their free throws! There is no-one stopping you, no-one abusing you. Just you and the basket. If you have to take 5000 per day over the off-season, then you do it. One person who can hit free throws and is over 7 foot is Yao Ming. Now it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Yao didn’t play a game last year and has walking disaster written all over him this year (limiting minutes, no back to backs, lots of support around him). How much is too much to ask for.. 55 games? 65? 70+? I’m not sure but if I see him anywhere near a draft spot around round 9, I know I’ll be there is a hurry because if everything does go right (and I realise I’m living in a fantasy here), he is going to provide first round value. %’s, points, boards, blocks. There is not much better than that. Perhaps my optimism is blinding me as I walk down towards th sunset yet I care not for at the moment, as I am blissfully unaware of the dangers ahead. All I see is a 1.37% chance of an 82 game season which draws me in, closer and closer.
Fantasy Round Table #1
Some of you might have seen the Fantasy Round Table doing the rounds last season at various blogs. Lester’s Legends sought out participants for this year and I’m glad to come along for the ride.
The first question is how will LeBron’s taking his talents to South Beach affect his fantasy production?
My take is just below but more importantly, this is the link for all the other responses (and there are a whole bunch of people involved this season)
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James is a natural passer and he has fun doing it. Whether it’s those behind the back flicks or the no-look, cross court bullet, it’s like a production for him. It is here that he is the polar opposite of Dwyane Wade, who will be the beneficiary of someone finally being able to find him. Naturally then, a bump in his assists is to be expected, especially when we consider that Chris Bosh is going to be knocking down open 15 footers with regularity. I think this will result in a small change with regard to his pure statistical production. I don’t know if it’ll be high enough to threaten 10 per game, but his career average is 7.0 and I would expect something similar or slightly higher than last season’s 8.6.
LeBron also obviously knows how to score. Averaging just a tick under 30 points last year, he can do it almost any way except efficiently from beyond the arc or at the free throw line. The Heat are going to need to score points to win games (duh) but he has enough talent around him to ensure that it doesn’t have to be 30 a night. Instead of doing everything himself like at Cleveland, the load will be well and truly shared. I wouldn’t be surprised in Bosh ends up averaging nearly as many points as Wade or James when all is said and done (and by nearly, I mean within 4 points). This is probably the one area which could see a substantial (3-4 points) drop off.
Apart from that, I think most things will same. He hasn’t forgotten how to steal, block or rebound the ball. Just like in Cleveland, there is no true Center. However unlike in Cleveland, I expect the Heat are going to be able to win a bunch of games without James needing to be on the court for 40+ minutes night in, night out.
13 Predictions
I see lots of lists everywhere I look on basketball blogs at the moment. The internet + fantasy + basketball = lists. Why aren’t I getting in on that action I asked myself? Probably because I don’t do anything the easy way was the response. BUt times, they are a changing. So here is a proper list, with an arbitrary number of points on a specific subject.
13) Kevin Martin will play more games than Gilbert Arenas and also have more fantasy value. Boom. Take that email argument from two days ago. This came out of a discussion with my Gilbert Arenas loving house-mate who thinks that Arenas is about to turn into the next incarnation of Pistol Pete Maravich. Apparently when John Wall is the savior, miraculous things happen to players who have lost their way. I call absolute balony on the grandest of scales. I do think Arenas will provide fantasy value but a top 5 SG? Nope. Lead the league in 3PTM? Nope. He will continue to shoot a terrible clip for FT% and manage a way above average TO rate for a SG. Kevin Martin on the other hand is about to light it up, Rockets style. He is playing for a smart coach and embedded in the highest basketball IQ team in the league. He has zero pressure on his shoulders with Yao and Brooks running the show. I can easily see 20+ points per night, with multiple threes, a wicked FT% and best of all, a career high FG%. He will miss time but 70+ games is to be expected.
12) DeMarcus ‘Boogie’ Cousins will win fantasy rookie of the year. This is mainly because of what he won’t do, as opposed to what he will do. John Wall will also put up big numbers, but like every rookie point guard to ever have played, his FG% will be somewhere in the dirt and his turnover numbers will be through the roof. Cousins has the advantage of being a big man who comes in as the most NBA ready rookie of those selected in the lottery. For fantasy, this means relatively low turnovers, higher FG% while still doing things like score, board and block. There are no negatives here people unless he has a brain explosion. The more I see of Cousins, the more I get this feeling that Sac-Town are going to fall in love with him and Evans running the place ragged. While he might initially battle for minutes, by Week 6 he will be playing 30+ night in, night out. You can’t keep a good thing down.
11) Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James will all average within 4 points of each other. Every time the Heat get mentioned, all I see are camera flashes and smirks on faces accompanied by a loud groan from the NBA masses. It has already reached that point. However this is not just a story about one player. Or two. It’s going to be about all three. People will look back and Chris Bosh could well be the reason why this all worked out fine, or why it all crashed in flames. He has to want it at least a thousand times more than his play in Toronto suggests. He will get his points in all kinds of manners which we can’t even understand yet. Left unguarded under the basket, dropping 18 foot jump shots with no-one chasing him down, alley-oops from distance. This season will have it all for Chris Bosh and that means points, points and more points. I’ll put it officially at 22.9 per game, which would be more than enough to stay within the margin of Wade and James. It also makes him a very attractive fantasy option, one of a handful of 20/10 guys out there. He still probably can’t block, but those points will be some of the most efficient in the league.
Baby Davis didn't make the cut for 2010-11 predictions
10) Jameer Nelson will storm back into some form and be one of those pesky point guards that seems to have a blinding week for your opponent but against no-one else. Two seasons ago, despite playing only 42 games, Nelson was the bee’s knees as a second tier point guard. He has never been one for a cache of assists but he has the ability to turn it on when required. In that 2008-09 season, he averaged 2 3ptm, 1+ steal and amazing efficiency. His drop off has been pretty substantial since then, as he struggled with injury and the arrival of Vince Carter. But Nelson is the glue guy for Orlando this season. Carter hasn’t proved anything and may get moved before the deadline. Rashard Lewis is stuck in major funk from which I don’t think there is an escape. The thing is, this Magic team is only good enough when it really counts when Jameer is in top gear. Chris Duhon and Jason Williams are capable but small spells will be the order of the day. If the rumors about Dwight Howard’s offensive game (I think I’ve heard this one before though) are true, it’s only going to contribute. I’m not advocating you take Nelson anywhere in particular for your squads just that he’ll bounce back and cause some pain for opponents at some point during this season. He is too good not too.
9) The proliferation of the 1-1-1 guy. Last season we only saw two players actually record more than 1 three, 1 steal and 1 block every game over the course of the season and they are called Durant and James. Many others were close, but close sorta don’t cut it in my books. This season, there will be a rash of 1-1-1 players crowing their talents from the treetops. A certainty you can add to the list is Dwyane Wade. But let us focus on some more low key guys. Whatever you think about Channing Frye, as he seems to be a pretty polarising player in fantasy circles, he should average more than 27 minutes a game and in turn, nudge up his steals (0.8) and blocks (0.9) from last season to walk on hallowed turf. Andrea Bargnani should easily make this list but can’t steal a ball worth a damn. Last season he only managed 0.3 per game. Lazy? Perhaps but if he is going to be ‘da man’ in Toronto, this will have to change. There are a pair of Knicks (Gallo and Azubuike) who will be there about. If you are a Rudy Gay believer (and I’m not) then his 0.8 3ptm and 0.8 blocks totals are disappointing for a player of his ability but I don’t see him busting many balls on the court given his massive pay day. The most promising candidates though are those who were short, but only managed to play limited minutes. Nic Batum and Michael Beasley fit the bill here. And a flier? Troy Murphy only averages 0.4 blocks per game but playing alongside Brook Lopez and coming across with help defense could, in some far off fairy land, bump this total up.
8) Serge Ibaka will start for the Thunder and become the Chris Anderson for the next decade. The playoff series against the Lakers was Ibaka’s coming out party. Despite losing that series, Air Congo as he is affectionately known to OKC supporters was a monster. Against the best big combination in the league and the eventual NBA champions, Ibaka held his own defensively for long periods of time (25 minutes per game) over the 6 games. He isn’t exactly an offensive mega star in waiting but with Durant and Westbrook as teammates it’s not exactly an issue. But he can block. And block and block. So, instead of picking Chris Anderson with that 11th round pick, aim for Ibaka in the 10th instead just to make sure you nab him.
7) Old guys will continue to make fools of the haters out there. I’m talking mostly about three guys. Marcus Camby, Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. For the past two years I have been railing against anyone who brings their names up, deriding them for believing in players who cannot keep doing what they do. Yet they keep on keeping on regardless of what anybody says. Perhaps this is my personal mea culpa, an apology to what I believe have been overrated old fantasy stars but in reality they are just plain fantasy stars like everyone else. Steve Nash led the league in assists last year. Marcus Camby finished the season with a top 25 overall fantasy rank regardless of what system you use. Jason Kidd has missed 3 games in the past 2 seasons while throwing down three pointers with alarming regularity (+2 per game) and amazing accuracy (+40%), not to mention the 9+ assists and 5+ boards. Each of these guys have slid down draft boards over the past month because of concerns about age but what makes this year so much different? Nothing.
Steve Nash as he was originally intended
6) Twitter will make you more competitive in your league. If you are reading this blog, you probably know what twitter is. That said, unless you are a junkie, this isn’t going to apply to you. You know those people, scanning their phones every 15 seconds not because they got a text message from an actual friend but because they racked up another 3 @ replies. Those people. Well, they have an advantage over you and your reliance on Rotoworld to update you on the latest player movements, injuries and form. You are officially 1-2 hours behind the twitterati who if this were last season, have already picked up Darren Collison as Chris Paul is still sitting on courtside wondering what just happened. Twitter explodes at key moments because someone is always watching the news as it’s happening and this news spreads like wide fire, first on Twitter then to other parts of the internet and finally to the mainstream. If you think catching the scores on SportsCenter when you get home is going to cut it in 2010-11 for your fantasy news, you have another thing coming my friend.
5) Elton Brand will be the player who most outperforms his Average Draft Position. I know this is a big call considering it’s normally some rookie or super back up who was not even drafted in the vast majority of leagues, but I think Brand is just going to kill it this season. This comes from someone who dislikes watching 76er games so much, if it happens to be one of the two televised games that week in Australia, it doesn’t get tivo’d. Doug Collins is on the record as a big Brand supporter. He is fully recovered from his injury. All signs point to a massive boast. One the other side, his name is often mentioned as a 4th or 5th option at PF and nowhere I read is even the least bit excited in him. Perhaps wisely, but I don’t understand how a player with as much talent as he obviously does can continue to suck for so long. 34+ minutes, 19/9 with 2+ blocks.
4) As opposed to the above, Paul Pierce will be the most disappointing player related to his ADP. On the latest yahoo big board he is late 4th round. Pierce was a great player. He led his team when it was going through the worst era of the franchise. He led the league in scoring. He adapted his game when necessary over the past three seasons. But he looks OLD. With KG fit and better than ever (compared to the last two seasons anyway), Rondo taking on more and more responsibility and the combination of Ray Allen and Nate Rob in the backcourt and Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal in the front spells the least reliance on Pierce since he was a rookie. He will still get minutes, still do that annoying head fake, draw the contact crap that has been his bread and butter for years but the excitement and the bang for your buck is way over. 14-15 points with filler (2-3 assists, 3-4 boards, 1.2 3ptm) is fine for the Celtics this season but the problem is, that’s not 4th round material.
A picture tells 1000 words
3) Kid Delicious (aka Kevin Durant) will be the most dominant fantasy player since Garnett’s 2003-04 season. The gap between KD and whoever ends up as the 2nd option is going to be spectacular (barring injury). Sure, he is a consensus number one pick everywhere you look, but his dominance is going to be unbelievable. Box scores are literally going to explode with goo half way through the 3rd quarter. I’m big on going over the top, so let’s not stop at the 2000 word count. Toss out the pencil, grab your permanent marker and write this down: 33 points, 9.5 boards, 50/40/90 with 1.8 threes, 3+ steals/blocks. Eat it Chris Paul. (post script: as I was finishing this post up, this was on twitter about KD and partying. EXACTLY why he is number 1)
2) Tyreke Evans will play beautiful, exquisite basketball for the Kings but this will not translate into first round talent. I just saw this tweet from Steve Alexander (head of Rotoworld NBA) saying that he is going late first round/early second round in all of his drafts. Which makes me sick. There is no doubt he is an ungodly talent on the basketball court but one quarter of pre-season hoops against the Clippers does not mean he can shoot threes or make free-throws all season long. Sorry, just the truth.
1) Luol Deng will continue his domination of Rashard Lewis. This one is for my boy Jason over at fbasketballblog who is forever doubting the talents of Britain’s greatest export. If you are still reading, I’m sorry to end on such a middle of the road kind of thing but this is going to become my singular achievement for the season after the inevitable collapse of my fantasy teams by about week 15. Deng has been biding his time but now it has arrived. He has always flirted with being a major piece of the puzzle and now that Derrick Rose has matured a little, Joakim Noah is a beast in the middle and Kyle Korver is running around jacking threes, Deng is left to hit his stride and carry his load on offense. While Rashard Lewis might be making $19.5 MILLION US DOLLARS this season (this point needs to be emphasised over and over again with every bricked three point attempt), he cannot compete!
The Case For, The Case Against: Free Throw Dumping In Round Two
Dumping FT% in the 2nd round
Over at Damn Lies and Statistics, they are having a 4 man expert mock draft (warning: roto style, may induce sleep). In their look at Round Two, a real trend sticks out. People are willing to draft FT% killers. In that specific post, they include Dwight, J Smoove, Rondo and Iguodala. Tyreke Evans might pop up as well. Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m all for drafting these players in the 2nd round (actually, this is a lie but I like to at least try and start out even handed), but this is just a look at some of the underlying reasons why people will make these decisions. Of course, try and keep in mind that in H2H leagues, it is widely assumed that it’s OK to dump a category (or two if your brave) because of the strictly mono e mono aspect relative to roto leagues.
What are some of the factors towards this trend? Well, we can start with the fact that once you get past round 1 in nba drafts, every player is going to have some deficiencies. Jason Kidd doesn’t score, Steve Nash doesn’t defend, Brandon Roy doesn’t play 82 games (this one is worse). So it’s OK that they are no good at FT%? Not quite.
The percentage categories in fantasy basketball are pretty special. While the others (points, boards, threes, blocks, steals, assists, turnovers) are all purely based on empirical totals, it is impossible go to backwards once you have accrued stats in these categories (apart from turnovers, where going forwards is going backwards, but that is a discussion for another day). With percentages, one bad day from your star can literally ruin the entire week. Think about when Kevin Durant shoots 6 from 25, instead of an average 9 from 19 performance. Those 19 missed shots in theoretical game one have created such a gulf that unless the rest of your team is made up of Gasol brothers, you can nearly kiss goodbye to the category for the week. While his FG% will average out over the course of a season, H2H is week to week, which doesn’t help you.
With FT%, this is even more important due to the disparity between players who take a large volume of free throws. While a good fantasy players who shoot 55% from the field might make 8-10 baskets a game, good players who shoot 48% will generally take a higher number. With free throws, this doesn’t occur. Let’s look at the top 5 field goal attempts vs. the top 5 free throw attempts from 2009-10.
Field Goal Attempts: Durant (794), James (768), Nowitzki (720), Wade (719), Bryant (716). Highest: James .503 – Lowest: Bryant .456
Free Throw Attempts: Durant (840), Howard (816), James (773), Wade (702), Stoudemire (632). Highest: Durant .900 – Lowest: Howard .592
Of qualified players, there are only 38 players between James and Bryant for field goal shooting while there are 129 players between Durant and Howard (and 73 between Durant and Amar’e).
So what you may ask? It’s extremely hard to overcome a bad free throw shooter relative to other categories. Other players can make up gaps from your best players in other categories, but free throws is different. Basically, the rule is that the player must have other mind blowing stats to overcome this big hole in their game.
That’s where the other side of the debate comes into it’s own. Some of these players can dominate so thoroughly in other categories that it doesn’t make one iota of difference if you lose free throws by 30% every week. Dwight Howard is one of those players. League leading in blocks and boards, plus a pretty handy FG% to boot. Yes please. Rajon Rondo is another. He is only going to get more fantasy relevance in that extremely old Boston team as the season progresses. Pick away I say. I’m not sure if Josh Smith or Andre Iguodala qualify in the same way, but they only took 5.2 attempts each game last season so who knows.
In the end, this trend seems to just be the done thing because that’s how the majority of the experts rate FT% and it’s impact on your team. I am more sceptical and probably won’t be taking any of the above players (apart from Smith if he falls far enough) in any of my drafts. Maybe this is showing my ignorance, but it is what it is.
Here are some other things which might make more sense than what you just read:
A look ahead at the possibilities for Blake Griffin this season.
Fantasy Point Guard Rankings from FantasyBasketballDaily.
Damn Lies and Statistics are into the 6th round of their 4 man mock draft, which includes Doc A from Rotoworld.
Furthermore, GMTR should have some more team previews up soon, while Jason at fBasketballBlog will have Round 7 of our Two Man Mock Draft soon.
How much does it hurt? Chris Bosh moves on
From what I’ve read recently, most people will still be happy to take LeBron James as a number two pick, while Dwyane Wade is no slouch either, coming in at between six and eight. However, Chris Bosh has gone from first round lock to barely scrapping into the second round. Is this a fair assumption? Let’s check it out.
In Toronto, Bosh earned his fantasy meal ticket primarily because of three things. In 2009-10, he dropped 24 points a game, added 10.8 boards and had excellent percentages (.516FG on 16.6 attempts and .797FT on 8.4 attempts). The other categories (blocks, three’s, assists, steals, TO) were all pretty stock standard for a PF/C, so let’s leave them alone for the moment.
Not the first option anymore, but still a solid fantasy player (Image from SLAM 8/25/08)
How will these numbers move in Miami? Two levels here, easy to predict and hard to predict. Easy first. The percentages are safe. Unless he forgets how to hit 18 foot jumpers and free throws, and if he did, Dwyane Wade would not be a happy camper, then these numbers are if anything going to rise. When you have Wade and James giving you the ball, hogging all the attention from the defense, it’s a safe bet to think that FG% will nudge up by 2-3%. Locked it. Furthermore, opposing teams are going to be in all sorts of foul trouble from the 2nd quarter onwards vs. the Heat, especially big men who get tangled up when the driving to the hoop party really begins. That means, that while the opportunity to create freebies on shots will decrease personally for Bosh presuming he gets a reduced number of looks, it will be easier to score and opportunities will come in non-shooting situations. Thus, those 8.4 attempts might fall a tad, but nothing to be worried about (in the 7-8 range).
To the problems. Rebounds. 10.8 is a lot of boards. The Raptors played a pretty up tempo basketball style, with lots of opportunities to score. The Heat were slowly last season in possessions per game, but should get faster this year. That said, Wade and James are both high rebounding players and the addition of Big Z is not going to help matters either. In Toronto, Bosh only had Andrea Bargnani to grab a pathetic 6 boards a game. Despite only starting in 6 of his 63 games last season, Z still managed 5.4 boards per game. So when we take into account these factors, it is more than reasonable to think that Bosh might only average between 7.5 and 8.5 boards a game, which is a pretty substantial hit and puts him on a level with a whole bunch of pretty average big men such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden (who only needed 23 mins/g to achieve it). If your chasing quality boards in the second round, I would look past Bosh and perhaps at David Lee or Gerald Wallace.
For me, scoring is much more a mystery. 16.6 field goal attempts per game seems like a lot. But given the context of the Raptors, it really isn’t. There wasn’t another player chucking up that many and for a dominant offensive big man, it’s a little disappointing. At Miami, Bosh will be the only inside presence, much like at the Raptors, but he prefers those dinky jump shots which he is very good at. It really depends how teams decide to play the Heat. With double teams, Bosh will get more looks. However he is going to be the third option on this team, no if’s or butt’s about it. 13 attempts per game, at a slightly higher percentage should still create 20+ per night and I think this will happen. The Heat will be lucky to get 30 points from players apart from their Big Three (Chalmers, Miller, Z, Jones, Haslem, Arroyo etc), so even if Wade and James drop 25 each, Bosh still needs to play his role, which will be substantial.
Finally, I think that Bosh will be the one to stay on the floor a little bit longer than others when games are over or in junk time. There is nothing scientific behind this, just a feeling. Bosh is clearly a good enough player to carry teams for stretches, as we saw in Toronto, so this will happen in Miami. Why not make that time to rest Wade and James? It makes sense and even if it’s just for 2-3 minutes per night averaged out over the season, that’s good for a bump in stats.
In the end, I think we are looking at approximately this: 21 points, 52.5% and 80.5%, 7.9 boards, with the other standards thrown in (2.9 assists, 1+ block and less than 2.5 turnovers). If you like your big men efficient, lean and mean, that’s good enough for the second round in my books. If you prefer players who dominate multiple categories but give up in others (Howard for example), then you will probably not be a fan this season.
And Toronto fans? You still have the former number one pick, the Italian Stallion himself, Andrea “Man On Campus” Bargnani.
Things are looking up for the Raptors
