Boring, Boring, Boring: Predictable Fantasy Players 2010-11

Posted by Henry on October 19, 2010 · 3 Comments 

It’s round 12. You are sweating from your shitty computer overheating. You have run out of water/beer/vodka (circle as appropriate) but don’t want to get up because it’s pitch black apart from the dim lights of your screen. You just recently drafted a combination of DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Oden, Yao Ming, Wilson Chandler and Terrence Williams. You don’t know how it happened. You didn’t exactly aim for the most inconsistent bunch of flaky chumps this side of the 2009-10 Minnesota Timberwolves but it’s time to put your team back on track with some proven, although slightly boring, older hands. Deep breathes people, it will be OK;

Probably won’t be available in Round 12 but I liked the back story;

The statistical production of Ray Allen has been falling ever so slowly but so, so surely. Expect no less this season. On the plus side, he will not miss games, he will get his looks, he will be efficient. There is a reason this is titled boring, boring, boring and Ray Allen epitomizes this more than any other player in the league. He’s not flashy or in your face, he just does what he does, quietly yet predictively. I like O.J Mayo better this season but when it gets to that stage of the draft where Allen is on the board and you need a lock, there isn’t a better option at shooting guard.

Jason Terry is apparently overrated and has a ridiculously high ADP for his value according to these guys. Terry gets his minutes. Even with those role players last season he managed 33+ per game. He looks dropped off (-3 points) as did his long shots (-0.5). You just know though when you draft him, 1+ steal, 1.5+ steals, a delicious FT% on a pretty good number of attempts (3-4 per game) and super low turnovers. I must admit #65 is probably too high for my liking.

The Thunder can easily justify giving up max money to KD but the 2nd biggest story down in OKC this off-season is the lack of extension offered to Jeff Green. Maybe he isn’t getting it done on the court. As a fantasy owner though, you should know that he is playing for cash and that’s always a bonus. The problem with Green is his regression in his third season. Less points, boards and assists. Terrible drop off in 3FG%. It’s time to re-invent his game and it’s going to be pretty. You can bank the 15/6 and be confident he will be the 1/1/1 talent everyone recognises. And that’s about it. Lots of people avoid him for H2H (thinking he is a pure Roto stud) yet I don’t see it. Someone who chips in everywhere and is super consistent. The only reason people be hating is due to higher expectations and unfair comparisons.

The Truth, Paul Pierce, is another old dude who is going to drop off this season but the type of drop off is pretty predicable. Last season: 18/4/3, 1.5 3PM and 1.2 steals, 47%-85%. This season, same but reduced. 16 points, 3.5 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.2 3PM and 1.0 steals. Same percentages. You get the idea. It’s pretty simple. In Excel form it would look something like this: Production=(Previous Stats)/(Previous Age+365 days). Don’t input that bad boy into your spreads unless you want a nice #value? cell. In fact, you should probably forget about the Truth right now because some chump is going to take him waaay too early based on past reputation.

More typical 12th round suggestions;

Mike Conley is a dud, sorry Memphis fans. The number four pick from 2007 just cannot produce on the big stage. Conley is fine for 12/5 with about 45%. He’ll hit his three and grab a steal but nothing extra. He is lucky that the O.J Mayo @ PG was epic fail or his career would be spent on the bench. For fantasy 12th round purposes though, he is perfect. He can be your third back up PG who sits there all year, looking pretty. Don’t think of it as a wasted pick. There is even a little dash of upside if Rudy Gay, Mayo, Randolph and Gasol all go down with ‘flu-like symptoms’ for months of end.

For some unbeknown reason, whenever I see Beno Udrih’s name in print, I automatically pronounce it ‘Udrick’. Dunno why, just always have. Moving on. A lot of people will automatically assume because Tyreke Evans is a stud, anyone playing in the back court with him would be worthless. Wrong. Uridh averaged a career high in points and threes and tired his career highs in steals and assists last season. He played a solid 31 minutes a game. He is still the starting point guard on an up and coming team. Not exactly the first option but there will be a stackload of opportunity to manufacture some production. You can bank some pretty similar stats from last season (13/5 with steal/three). Not special, but worthy at the right (deep) spot.

Brendan Haywood is not exactly in a good place right now. After he moved to the Mavs last year he only averaged 26 minutes per game. Now he will be splitting time with Tyson Chandler. Yet in those 26 minutes, he still managed to construct 8 points, 7.5 boards and 2 blocks per game. Not bad at all. Keep an eye on him if you are going big and it starts to get a bit risky. He is nice insurance in case anything else goes wrong.

Like Haywood, Jarrett Jack is not loving his career right now. Sure he is the starting PG but it’s at possibly the worst team in the NBA and he has one of the best European point guards sitting right behind him. Despite all of this crap, Jack has obviously taken ‘Point Guard 101′. In 27 minutes per game last season he averaged 11.4 points and 5.0 assists. He has a wicked three point shot (+40% on 2.4 attempts) and shoots solid percentages (48/84 last season). All in all, he is like everyone else on this list. Wouldn’t cause a ripple in most places but plods along and gets the job done. When you are throwing up your late round flier of ‘random rookie pg x’, just pause one second and think if you have perhaps taken too many risks already? You probably haven’t but what the hell…

My housemate, myself and some bloke looking decidedly fed up by our shitty camera man

Filed under Draft, Fantasy Basketball, Musings, Pre-season 2010 · Tagged with , , , , , , ,

What type of fantasy basketball player are you?

Posted by Henry on July 22, 2010 · 16 Comments 

There are all kinds of fantasy basketball players around. If you play in more than two or three leagues, you will know what I mean. The straight guy, the attention hog, the trade demon, the inattentive jackass… it goes on. Below are a few examples that I have had the pleasure of playing with over the last couple of seasons.

Mr Average (Or I’d Pick LeBron #1 everytime): Likes to do a bit of everything. Has no problem picking first or picking last. Will offer trades, build a competitive team but in the end, fall apart at the finish line because the perfect plan didn’t quite come off. This will result in blaming others (injuries most likely) and sulking off in to the future forever thinking about what could have been. Regrets trades that never happened despite never willing to trade with players at the top of their game. Thinks it’s fair enough that his opponent only has 14 total player games in All Star week while he lucked out and ended up with 23 but hates it when his 11th round draft pick gets a 4 week hamstring injury.

The Dan Gilbert: Demands things. Like the way certain rules should be interpreted after already trampling on others in previous seasons to get ahead. Tries to hit a home-run with their first pick then fills out the roster with way past their prime people who starred in a different era (think about that person who took Shawn Marion last year and expected to ride him all the way… oh wait. That might have been me). Over inflates players stats just to look good in arguments or tricks people into trades (Why please Mr Jamison, join our team for nothing). Will not win the league this season but will remind people about the past. (note: please imagine this who paragraph in comic sans for complete effect)

The (Insert Player Name) Lover: Loves individual stars despite their zero sum effect on any team which this person is trying to build. Paul Pierce in the early 3rd round? It’s PAUL PIERCE DUDE! Whatdaya mean Monta Ellis isn’t awesome? I have his ME Rocket shoes from 2008! All of a sudden, the roster has 3 small forwards and 4 point guards, together with names like Boris Diaw, Caron Bulter and Gilbert Arenas. No, this dude never wins, but he has an eclectic set of jerseys spanning his previous fantasy basketball seasons which is more than you can say about your crappy collection of Yahoo .JPG trophies.

Mr ODSR (Old Dudes Still Representing): Aka Mr Conservative. Aka Mr Boring. Tim Duncan? Yes please. Jason Kidd? Delicious. Chauncey Billups? All-Star. You get the drift. No-one will manage to play 82 games, but when someone does eventually produce 25-12-3 once every 8 weeks against the Nets, you won’t hear the end of it (“I told you he would be back”). The worst thing about this person? Their constant ability to amaze you with outstandingly stupid picks and trades which shatter any balance in the league.

Ms Bo Peep: You won’t hear a sound from this owner. Trade email? Silence. Responding to general forum chatter? Nada. After languishing mid table for the entire season with their original roster still in tact, holding onto Anthony Randolph despite all evidence pointing to the contrary, you might wonder if they have just given up completely? But the roster will still be set every week and the groans just loud enough to be heard as Jose Calderon posts another 24 minute, 3 assist game, absolutely failing to justify his 2nd round selection. Not a threat to the title, but definitely a strong possibility to sap all the fun out of the league.

The Kevin Garnett (trash talker): Probably the most hated of all fantasy players, but could still manage to make the league entertaining even if you took away box scores. Just because Baron Davis topped 20 points for the first time since he was a Hornet doesn’t mean you have to hear about as you lose 5-4 on Sunday evening. Last Sunday evening. And you’re still hearing about it. This guy finished 5th last season, and while his 40-38 record this season doesn’t sit any better, you wouldn’t know it after he just pronounced himself the champion in week 8 after trading for Jeff Green and Corey Maggette. While you secretly want to play this dude every week just for a chance to open some whoop-ass on him, you still try to stay above the fray by politely pointing to the scoreboard, only to have that email smashed back in your face with a group cc saying your team are the worst chokers since the ’06 Mavs. Even your computer giggles. Only 4 more months until the NBA finishes up. Sigh.

Did I miss anyone?

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Great stuff from Tales of 9 Cats in the form of an interview with Dr A from Rotoworld.

The Golden State Warriors by GMTR.

Rookies for now and the future, by CBS.

Some sleepers to consider.

Filed under Musings, Off-Season 2010 · Tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,