13 Predictions
I see lots of lists everywhere I look on basketball blogs at the moment. The internet + fantasy + basketball = lists. Why aren’t I getting in on that action I asked myself? Probably because I don’t do anything the easy way was the response. BUt times, they are a changing. So here is a proper list, with an arbitrary number of points on a specific subject.
13) Kevin Martin will play more games than Gilbert Arenas and also have more fantasy value. Boom. Take that email argument from two days ago. This came out of a discussion with my Gilbert Arenas loving house-mate who thinks that Arenas is about to turn into the next incarnation of Pistol Pete Maravich. Apparently when John Wall is the savior, miraculous things happen to players who have lost their way. I call absolute balony on the grandest of scales. I do think Arenas will provide fantasy value but a top 5 SG? Nope. Lead the league in 3PTM? Nope. He will continue to shoot a terrible clip for FT% and manage a way above average TO rate for a SG. Kevin Martin on the other hand is about to light it up, Rockets style. He is playing for a smart coach and embedded in the highest basketball IQ team in the league. He has zero pressure on his shoulders with Yao and Brooks running the show. I can easily see 20+ points per night, with multiple threes, a wicked FT% and best of all, a career high FG%. He will miss time but 70+ games is to be expected.
12) DeMarcus ‘Boogie’ Cousins will win fantasy rookie of the year. This is mainly because of what he won’t do, as opposed to what he will do. John Wall will also put up big numbers, but like every rookie point guard to ever have played, his FG% will be somewhere in the dirt and his turnover numbers will be through the roof. Cousins has the advantage of being a big man who comes in as the most NBA ready rookie of those selected in the lottery. For fantasy, this means relatively low turnovers, higher FG% while still doing things like score, board and block. There are no negatives here people unless he has a brain explosion. The more I see of Cousins, the more I get this feeling that Sac-Town are going to fall in love with him and Evans running the place ragged. While he might initially battle for minutes, by Week 6 he will be playing 30+ night in, night out. You can’t keep a good thing down.
11) Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James will all average within 4 points of each other. Every time the Heat get mentioned, all I see are camera flashes and smirks on faces accompanied by a loud groan from the NBA masses. It has already reached that point. However this is not just a story about one player. Or two. It’s going to be about all three. People will look back and Chris Bosh could well be the reason why this all worked out fine, or why it all crashed in flames. He has to want it at least a thousand times more than his play in Toronto suggests. He will get his points in all kinds of manners which we can’t even understand yet. Left unguarded under the basket, dropping 18 foot jump shots with no-one chasing him down, alley-oops from distance. This season will have it all for Chris Bosh and that means points, points and more points. I’ll put it officially at 22.9 per game, which would be more than enough to stay within the margin of Wade and James. It also makes him a very attractive fantasy option, one of a handful of 20/10 guys out there. He still probably can’t block, but those points will be some of the most efficient in the league.
Baby Davis didn't make the cut for 2010-11 predictions
10) Jameer Nelson will storm back into some form and be one of those pesky point guards that seems to have a blinding week for your opponent but against no-one else. Two seasons ago, despite playing only 42 games, Nelson was the bee’s knees as a second tier point guard. He has never been one for a cache of assists but he has the ability to turn it on when required. In that 2008-09 season, he averaged 2 3ptm, 1+ steal and amazing efficiency. His drop off has been pretty substantial since then, as he struggled with injury and the arrival of Vince Carter. But Nelson is the glue guy for Orlando this season. Carter hasn’t proved anything and may get moved before the deadline. Rashard Lewis is stuck in major funk from which I don’t think there is an escape. The thing is, this Magic team is only good enough when it really counts when Jameer is in top gear. Chris Duhon and Jason Williams are capable but small spells will be the order of the day. If the rumors about Dwight Howard’s offensive game (I think I’ve heard this one before though) are true, it’s only going to contribute. I’m not advocating you take Nelson anywhere in particular for your squads just that he’ll bounce back and cause some pain for opponents at some point during this season. He is too good not too.
9) The proliferation of the 1-1-1 guy. Last season we only saw two players actually record more than 1 three, 1 steal and 1 block every game over the course of the season and they are called Durant and James. Many others were close, but close sorta don’t cut it in my books. This season, there will be a rash of 1-1-1 players crowing their talents from the treetops. A certainty you can add to the list is Dwyane Wade. But let us focus on some more low key guys. Whatever you think about Channing Frye, as he seems to be a pretty polarising player in fantasy circles, he should average more than 27 minutes a game and in turn, nudge up his steals (0.8) and blocks (0.9) from last season to walk on hallowed turf. Andrea Bargnani should easily make this list but can’t steal a ball worth a damn. Last season he only managed 0.3 per game. Lazy? Perhaps but if he is going to be ‘da man’ in Toronto, this will have to change. There are a pair of Knicks (Gallo and Azubuike) who will be there about. If you are a Rudy Gay believer (and I’m not) then his 0.8 3ptm and 0.8 blocks totals are disappointing for a player of his ability but I don’t see him busting many balls on the court given his massive pay day. The most promising candidates though are those who were short, but only managed to play limited minutes. Nic Batum and Michael Beasley fit the bill here. And a flier? Troy Murphy only averages 0.4 blocks per game but playing alongside Brook Lopez and coming across with help defense could, in some far off fairy land, bump this total up.
8) Serge Ibaka will start for the Thunder and become the Chris Anderson for the next decade. The playoff series against the Lakers was Ibaka’s coming out party. Despite losing that series, Air Congo as he is affectionately known to OKC supporters was a monster. Against the best big combination in the league and the eventual NBA champions, Ibaka held his own defensively for long periods of time (25 minutes per game) over the 6 games. He isn’t exactly an offensive mega star in waiting but with Durant and Westbrook as teammates it’s not exactly an issue. But he can block. And block and block. So, instead of picking Chris Anderson with that 11th round pick, aim for Ibaka in the 10th instead just to make sure you nab him.
7) Old guys will continue to make fools of the haters out there. I’m talking mostly about three guys. Marcus Camby, Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. For the past two years I have been railing against anyone who brings their names up, deriding them for believing in players who cannot keep doing what they do. Yet they keep on keeping on regardless of what anybody says. Perhaps this is my personal mea culpa, an apology to what I believe have been overrated old fantasy stars but in reality they are just plain fantasy stars like everyone else. Steve Nash led the league in assists last year. Marcus Camby finished the season with a top 25 overall fantasy rank regardless of what system you use. Jason Kidd has missed 3 games in the past 2 seasons while throwing down three pointers with alarming regularity (+2 per game) and amazing accuracy (+40%), not to mention the 9+ assists and 5+ boards. Each of these guys have slid down draft boards over the past month because of concerns about age but what makes this year so much different? Nothing.
Steve Nash as he was originally intended
6) Twitter will make you more competitive in your league. If you are reading this blog, you probably know what twitter is. That said, unless you are a junkie, this isn’t going to apply to you. You know those people, scanning their phones every 15 seconds not because they got a text message from an actual friend but because they racked up another 3 @ replies. Those people. Well, they have an advantage over you and your reliance on Rotoworld to update you on the latest player movements, injuries and form. You are officially 1-2 hours behind the twitterati who if this were last season, have already picked up Darren Collison as Chris Paul is still sitting on courtside wondering what just happened. Twitter explodes at key moments because someone is always watching the news as it’s happening and this news spreads like wide fire, first on Twitter then to other parts of the internet and finally to the mainstream. If you think catching the scores on SportsCenter when you get home is going to cut it in 2010-11 for your fantasy news, you have another thing coming my friend.
5) Elton Brand will be the player who most outperforms his Average Draft Position. I know this is a big call considering it’s normally some rookie or super back up who was not even drafted in the vast majority of leagues, but I think Brand is just going to kill it this season. This comes from someone who dislikes watching 76er games so much, if it happens to be one of the two televised games that week in Australia, it doesn’t get tivo’d. Doug Collins is on the record as a big Brand supporter. He is fully recovered from his injury. All signs point to a massive boast. One the other side, his name is often mentioned as a 4th or 5th option at PF and nowhere I read is even the least bit excited in him. Perhaps wisely, but I don’t understand how a player with as much talent as he obviously does can continue to suck for so long. 34+ minutes, 19/9 with 2+ blocks.
4) As opposed to the above, Paul Pierce will be the most disappointing player related to his ADP. On the latest yahoo big board he is late 4th round. Pierce was a great player. He led his team when it was going through the worst era of the franchise. He led the league in scoring. He adapted his game when necessary over the past three seasons. But he looks OLD. With KG fit and better than ever (compared to the last two seasons anyway), Rondo taking on more and more responsibility and the combination of Ray Allen and Nate Rob in the backcourt and Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal in the front spells the least reliance on Pierce since he was a rookie. He will still get minutes, still do that annoying head fake, draw the contact crap that has been his bread and butter for years but the excitement and the bang for your buck is way over. 14-15 points with filler (2-3 assists, 3-4 boards, 1.2 3ptm) is fine for the Celtics this season but the problem is, that’s not 4th round material.
A picture tells 1000 words
3) Kid Delicious (aka Kevin Durant) will be the most dominant fantasy player since Garnett’s 2003-04 season. The gap between KD and whoever ends up as the 2nd option is going to be spectacular (barring injury). Sure, he is a consensus number one pick everywhere you look, but his dominance is going to be unbelievable. Box scores are literally going to explode with goo half way through the 3rd quarter. I’m big on going over the top, so let’s not stop at the 2000 word count. Toss out the pencil, grab your permanent marker and write this down: 33 points, 9.5 boards, 50/40/90 with 1.8 threes, 3+ steals/blocks. Eat it Chris Paul. (post script: as I was finishing this post up, this was on twitter about KD and partying. EXACTLY why he is number 1)
2) Tyreke Evans will play beautiful, exquisite basketball for the Kings but this will not translate into first round talent. I just saw this tweet from Steve Alexander (head of Rotoworld NBA) saying that he is going late first round/early second round in all of his drafts. Which makes me sick. There is no doubt he is an ungodly talent on the basketball court but one quarter of pre-season hoops against the Clippers does not mean he can shoot threes or make free-throws all season long. Sorry, just the truth.
1) Luol Deng will continue his domination of Rashard Lewis. This one is for my boy Jason over at fbasketballblog who is forever doubting the talents of Britain’s greatest export. If you are still reading, I’m sorry to end on such a middle of the road kind of thing but this is going to become my singular achievement for the season after the inevitable collapse of my fantasy teams by about week 15. Deng has been biding his time but now it has arrived. He has always flirted with being a major piece of the puzzle and now that Derrick Rose has matured a little, Joakim Noah is a beast in the middle and Kyle Korver is running around jacking threes, Deng is left to hit his stride and carry his load on offense. While Rashard Lewis might be making $19.5 MILLION US DOLLARS this season (this point needs to be emphasised over and over again with every bricked three point attempt), he cannot compete!
The Triple Double Threat
There are many things in fantasy basketball which light a fire in my belly. Brook Lopez, Greg Oden’s blocks per36, Kevin Martin at the free throw line. All delicious, all the time. But there is something even greater than all of those put together and that is the player who earns the right to be called a Triple-Double Threat (TDT). The TDT is a mysterious individual. Sometimes short, sometimes slow. Sometimes he will appear from nowhere, dazzle with his talents and then disappear for weeks on end. Now they are not the be all and end all of Fantasy ball, but 10+ in three different categories is something to behold and has the ability to totally swing a game week for the better.
For the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season, there are some old timers, some new players and some surprises who could become the next TDT. They include;
Jason Kidd: Old Man River used to be the ultimate Triple Double machine. But last season, he topped out only twice. Reason? He couldn’t score enough baskets to reach 10 points. Kidd reached double digits 4 times in Boards and Assists without making it to 10 points. Poor effort on his behalf, but it shows he still has the fire within him to be a true TDT. Personally, I prefer my threats to be a bit bigger, a bit scarier and a more angry. Kidd fits none of these categories at all. Plus, he plays with Dirk. I bet that locker room is a barrel of laughs.
Rajon Rondo: The little green alien is the man these days when it comes to potential TDT. He had two triple-doubles in the playoffs alone last season, to go with his 2 from the regular season. However there were another four times last season when he was less than 3 combined boards/assists away from a triple-double. Did you hear that the Celtics aged even more during the off-season, except for their point guard? All this means more stats, more speed and more everything from the little guy. The TDT title is his to lose at this point, which is admittedly 8 weeks before the season even starts.
Andre ‘Don’t call me Iggy’ Iguodala: If you have to tell people to stop calling you something, you are a bit of a joke. AI9 as he prefers to be called (seriously?!) might not have actually accrued a trip-doub last season but was a constant threat, an important part of the TDT make up. Despite averaging 5.8 assists per game, Iggy only managed to break the 10+ assists four times in 2009-10. That means that, a) he is very consistent with his assists, and b) he is angry at me for calling him Iggy. With Evan Turner on board, together with the evolution of Jrue Holiday, I think his prospects for more stat stuffing triple-doubles might have diminished, however he can be the token guy who always makes a list like this.
Dwight Howard: D12 is the first player to make the list for something other than the stock standard points/boards/assists combo. The big fella doesn’t quite have the touch to rack up the assists, so instead uses two hands every night to count his blocks. Like Iggy before him, Howard didn’t actually manage a triple-double last season, but he did block 7+ shots four times, giving himself every chance. I’d love to see the big man do it as his smile would be wide enough to cover Stan Van Gundy’s belly.
Stephen Curry: As mad dog Nelson continues to bark orders which his players ignore, Stephen Curry continues to amass gigantic totals of everything. Lots of people used to get on board Chris Paul to get a quad-doub (4 categories with double digits for you mathematically challenged ball junkies), but my money is on Curry. The man steals a ball quicker than Iguodala falls over, which is very quickly. That said, Curry only actually achieved one trip-doub last season, so he is still a fair way from going to even greater heights.
Terrence Williams: T-Will is the next big thing in New Jersey, which is to say, he is relatively small fry to the rest of us. But man can the kid ball. When given the opportunity at the end of last season, he averaged 14 points, 7 boards and 6 assists over 7 games in April. The dude is a smooth operator who will surprise many this season with his ability to create stats from nowhere. A true sophomore TDT.
Boris Diaw: It pains me to put him alongside these other players but according to Hoopedia, he is “He is lauded for his unselfish, but assertive play, and his versatility also makes him a triple-double threat”. I have never seen anyone laud him for his assertive play, but whatever. They go on for a whole paragraph about his previous triple-doubles. There is another reason he makes this list. In 2008-09, he had a pretty nice stat line of 14/7/7/7… until you realise that one of those 7′s was his turnovers. Perhaps the only player in the league who is able to threaten a negative trip-doub, that being 10+ turnovers.
Some of these players are highly regarded first round picks in fantasy ball, others are just drifting along hoping you will pick them up so they can reach for that elusive goal of becoming a TDT.
(For the record, I know LBJ is probably going to average a triple-double this season. He is also a dick, thus gets no love)
Some (of the many) myths about the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season
“Surely nobody saw the sorry collection of talent I overpaid to assemble proceed to underachieve spectacularly. At least, I hope nobody saw that.”
According to Doc Funk, this is what Bryan Colangelo is saying when he talks about the ‘failings’ of Chris Bosh. More power to you Mr Funk. But to totally take this quote out of perspective, it applies to so many other things in life apart from bad Toronto Raptor player contracts. Like fantasy picks. Over-priced, half-baked players (not just Michael Beasley) who get by on past achievements and their good looks (and not just Joakim Noah). The rankings have started to appear but the mainstream, like everything else mainstream, often gets the easiest things wrong because popularity trumps smarts these days in almost every arena. So let’s break down some of the myths about certain fantasy players for the upcoming season.
Tyreke Evans > Rondo/Kidd: This just doesn’t add up for me. The Kings have all of a sudden become a pretty impressive list. They have added a legit power forward beast in DeMarcus Cousins who is going to be demanding the ball. Carl Landry is slotting in off the bench. Sam Dalembert is going have a ridiculous TRB%. At the start of last year it was the Jason Thompson sleeper contest. This year he is hardly talked about, indicating their depth. Francesco Garcia is back from his bouncy ball injury and Omri Casspi has grown up another year and is ready to showcase in cities apart from just New York. Evans isn’t going to get the opportunity to go improve on his 20/5/5 which by the way, was ONLY achieved because the whole organisation from the GM and coach down were spoon feeding him minutes to get to those stats. In March, he averaged a minute and a half more than his season average, despite playing for a team without a chance at making the playoffs. Everyone marks down Derrick Rose not being able to hit three’s, but Evans only managed .5 per game. Plus at the guard, like Rondo, he is destroying your FT% (75% on 6.5 per). The difference? Rondo is a legitimate triple double threat every single night whereas Evans is still learning the game on a beefed up team. Let it be clear. I’m not Evans hater. I just don’t see him above Kidd or Rondo on the PG pecking order this season. Point guards are meant to steal and get assists. Extra scoring and boards never hurt anyone, but if you can’t do the fundamentals of your position to an extremely high standard, you lose marks and fantasy value in my books.
Gilbert Arenas anywhere near Mo Williams (as seen on the Buser big board): This scares me. If there is only one player who could symbolize a Do Not Draft list, it would be Arenas. Two seasons destroyed by knee injuries. One season destroyed by gun charges. At least when Yao goes down he does it with style. Mo Williams has never been the man. He only lasted one season at the Jazz and with the Bucks there was always someone in front of him (Michael Redd of all people). Of course, at the Cavs all he has had to do is occasionally bring the ball up, knock down a couple of free throws per game and camp outside the three point line. This all changes. Mo Williams is THE MAN in Cleveland. Antwan Jamison is too old, J.J Hickson is too young. He is going to have a major season. And everyone is going to wait for him to fall for them. Be brave, take him early. And if you are even thinking about Arenas before the late 5th round, go watch some John Wall mix tapes and get back to me.
Paul Millsap not being awesome: If the last one scared me, this CBS ranking page is like a all consuming black hole. Now I know CBS uses some whacky points based system which is impossible to understand, but here are a few of the names of the ‘forwards’ before Millsap (who comes in at #56… not total… excluding all guards and centers). Corey Brewer; Thad Young; Shawn Marion; Grant Hill; and my personal favorite, the afore mentioned Jason Thompson at #47. Now Millsap isn’t going to light it up this season even with Boozer having exited stage right. Okur and Al Jefferson will soak up minutes, but this is the same Millsap who played in every game last season and managed 11.6 points/6.8 boards/1.2 blocks with 53% from the field in less than 28 minutes. With more opportunity (and that’s what he will get this season), these numbers will spike. But even if they didn’t, that list of hacks still shouldn’t be appearing on any rankings list come October.
Cheer up Perk, you don't have to sit with Mr. Glum anymore (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
Bill Walker playing more minutes than Kelenna Azubuike: You remember Bill Walker right? Sure you do. Celtics bench warmer. Good at looking glum. Has crazy eyes. Well, he arrived in NYC last season and found out that he was actually allowed on the court long enough to score some points. However, this Yahoo depth chart (dated 29 July) must be some sort of sycophant because it has him as the starting two guard! Sheesh. I guess all that time backing up Ray Allen must have taught him to shoot right? Well he did manage to knock down some three’s in the 27 games he did play but this was because Chris Duhon was the next best shooter after Gallo. But now this Knicks team doesn’t need Walker and his ability to mop up minutes while others are injured or should not be playing. Azubuike though, he can straight up ball. Injured for the majority of last season with the Warriors, the year before he was an actual effective player. 32 minutes per game, 14 and 5, with near 1-1-1 extras. Nothing to jump up and down about, but a lot more than anything you will see from Bill Walker this season.
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In some non-fantasy stuff. I just want to say, there are some very funny people on the internet. I know this stuff has probably been seen before, but it makes me laugh and on the off chance others haven’t seen it, check it out.
Followed closely by;
http://jeskeets.tumblr.com/post/866956695/kids-have-no-idea-how-much-money-nba-players-make
The real reason CP3 is staying with the Hornets.
Other basketball related stuff;
Best contracts under $40m by Hardwood P.
Fantasy outlook for the Rockets by GMTR.
And best of all, three fantasy experts (no, really) in the form of Jeff Andriesse, Tom Lorenzo and Greg Fox are having a live blog in about 3 hours by my count (Noon, American Eastern Standard Time). Check it out at Damn Lies and Statistics.
Two Man Draft – Round Two
Now that Jason over at fBasketballBlog has kicked off our two man draft, I’ll be tagging in and jumping to the second round. The idea here is not to make a simple list of players from 1 through to 156 (12 teams, 13 picks) but to try to think like owners and create teams which would be viable in the cut throat world of fantasy hoops. Some teams will be ‘all rounders’, while others will end up specializing in certain categories.
Shawn Kemp. No, he doesn't make an appearance in this draft, but I wish he did.
Before we begin, let it be known I have a bias against point guards and this is purely H2H stuff.
13. Steve Nash: While I dislike point guards, when you take David Lee and his lack of blocks, you don’t have much of a choice. Nash is the best left on the board. He is a perfect fit in the Suns system, and even without Amar’e on the pick ‘n roll, he will get his numbers. Mostly this is for assists but I see Nash taking a total leadership role this year which includes a higher scoring load, helping out points and threes. The Lee/Nash one-two hit puts this team in a great place to compete across all categories except blocks. With such a solid foundation, specialist players can be picked up later on to fill gaps.
14. Dwight Howard: You’ll be lucky to pick Howard up here in most leagues, but if you have the chance, you should take it. D12 rocks the entire package at the Center spot. Last year, he led the league with 13.2 boards and 2.8 blocks per game. Everyone knows about his deficiencies but with Gerald Wallace as the other pick, it’s time to start forgetting about free throws. Remember, there are still 8 other categories. Blocks are the hardest numbers to find in fantasy ball, but this team has already chalked up a significant advantage there. The underrated fact about Howard? He has only missed 3 games in the last 3 seasons. That’s fantasy gold.
15. Amar’e Stoudemire: New York basketball was built for Amar’e. In the form of Steve Nash, he has lost his Robin, but this Knicks team is begging for him. As I type, he is in Israel getting his Hebrew on. With Gallo playing the three man, AntRand sitting in the middle and Raymond Felton (a very misunderstood point guard) feeding him the ball, I’m excited for STAT this season. This fantasy team already has Dwyane Wade, and adding Amar’e creates that size advantage, building on Wade’s above average blocks for his position. For a big man who can give you 20/10 production, he doesn’t hurt you anywhere (2.6 turnovers, 77% FT in 09/10). He is definitely over his injury concerns after playing all 82 games last season.
16. Carmelo Anthony: Stephen Curry can do it all, so Melo is the perfect round two player who might not be much of an all round type of player, but knows how to make an impact in specific categories. Melo was a bonafide MVP candidate last season before Christmas. He is the purest scorer in the game, dropping a career high 28 points per game last season. His main strength is FT% (83% on 8.9 attempts). While some scorers struggle when their teams are slumping, Anthony is clutch when playing iso and lives for the big moments. Even if the Nuggets are up and down, like the end of last season, Anthony was still a staple for many fantasy champions. Curry and Anthony together allows this team to focus on big stats down the line.
17. Brook Lopez: The good things – Has never missed a game. Shoots 81% from the free throw line as a Center. Managed nearly 19 points per game despite the Nets only winning 12 games in 2009-10. The not so good – On a team full of nobodies, can only manage 13 shots per game. Blocked less shots in his second season despite playing 6 minutes more per game. Shot less than 50% from the field last season. This season is his for the taking, with a new coach and some good new teammates who will contribute to wins but won’t dominate the stats. In fantasy terms, that’s delicious. BroLo should be a 20/10 guy this season and because of his efficiency with the freebies, he is a rare type of player. Good centers are the hardest players to get. D-Will and Lopez are not going to take over the world this season, but you don’t win fantasy with your first two picks and this is a great start.
18. Rajon Rondo: When I first did this, Rondo was about 5 spots lower. But then I thought about it. What happens when you throw three old dudes together, with a sole focus on the playoffs, surround them by mid level talent and stop gaps (Hello Jermaine O’Neal) and try to keep it all together with an alien? The alien dominates. The only reason Rondo is not a top tier PG is his inability to hit free throws and he lack of three’s. However in the playoff’s last season, Rondo hit 37.5% from distance. I wouldn’t expect him to turn all Ray Allen on owners, but don’t be surprised when he has 2-3 per week. Who knows about his FT% though, that’s just rubbish. But as one of the highest rebounding point guards (4.4 per game) and near league leading thief (2.3 per game), he is a highly valued guard. Plus, he still has upside as the rest of his team will continue to fall off as they age. Perfect fit for Gasol if you follow the point guard/power forward strategy. Always remember, point guards who can’t shoot three’s is not the end of the world as so many experts think as three’s is one of the easiest categories to pick up in the latter rounds and on the waiver wire.
19. Josh Smith: A lot of players don’t like Josh Smith. But last season he turned a significant corner. Not only did he play 81 games, but he stopped taking three pointers. This was his biggest weakness and as a result, his FG% was over 50 last season. He does the dirty work (1.6 steals, 2.1 blocks) which many others don’t, but doesn’t suffer in the more voluminous categories (15.7 points, 8.7 boards). He is consistently bad at free throws, but with Danny Granger on board, there should be no issues here. Smith is the perfect second round option at this stage as he helps out nearly everywhere for a SF/PF. As a bonus, he had a career high 4.2 assists per game last season.
20. Al Jefferson: This is probably the first real reach. Jefferson is an unknown quantity at this point in time. He disappointed oh so many owners last season and I would be surprised to see him at this position in most drafts. But that unknown factor is also a bucket load of potential upside. In his first two seasons at the T’Wolves, he averaged 20+/10+ with blocks, steals and a healthy FT% to boot. The Jazz places him with one of the best point guards in the league which he has never experienced before, and while he will still be undersized, he is the best Center left on the board. Building on Bryant’s foundation for this team, Jefferson is a legitimate first tier center when healthy, which is hopefully all season.
21. Jason Kidd: I’m a bit wary of drafting two team-mates 1st and 2nd, but Kidd doesn’t really know how to stop. While there are reporters out of Dallas that he will be utilised less this season than those past, I’ll have to see it to believe it. He actually slightly increased his playing time and points per game last season. At 37, that’s impressive. He won’t score a ton, but that’s why Dirk is there. What he will do, hit the deep ball, dish out dimes, board and steal, are perfect for this spot. The more I think about it, the more these two tick every box when combined.
22. Chris Bosh: I’ve already written about Bosh and his potential here. You should be looking at 21/8 with a bunch of efficiency which I believe justifies this spot. He is a solid PF/C, missing only blocks as a facet of his game. Chris Paul and Chris Bosh is text book point guard/power forward strategy. Easy to consolidate around in future rounds and very hard to match up against. While quite conservative (and some would say boring), it is virtually risk free if injuries do not present.
23. Brandon Roy: This is first round talent stuck in a fragile body which scares off most owners. While I took him at 13 last year, probably a tad too soon, this year he is in free fall. But ask yourself what has changed? No new team-mates. No change in coach. This season’s Portland team is very similar to last years and that means Roy is a fantasy sneak if you can stomach the risk involved with the injury factor. With LBJ doing everything known to man on a basketball court, Roy will complement and extend this across nearly all categories. He is Kobe-light, but without the guarantee of 82 games.
24. Tyreke Evans: Durant is a hard pick to match up with, but if you go first, you get the benefit of double dipping at the 24/25 spot. So I’ve done the easy thing and picked the best available player. I’ll leave it up to Jason to really complement these two players with a third awesome option. I’ve seen predictions for Evans as high as 12 (!) but I still think he has a long way to go fantasy-wise. He might even fall back a step or two this season. DeMarcus Counsins will take some offense, as will the development of other young players on the roster, such as Omri Casspi. I don’t doubt Evan’s talent, just that with a roster which is getting pretty crowded, it looks like he will have to share the ball move this season. That said, great value at #24 and will fit like a glove with KD to cover all the bases.
So, to finish up. Durant/Evans, LBJ/Roy, CP3/CB4, Dirk/Kidd, Kobe/Jefferson, Granger/J Smoove, Gasol/Rondo, D-Will/Lopez, S Curry/Melo, Wade/Amar’e, Wallace/Howard and Nash/David Lee.
Over to you Jason…
The Real Trifecta
In recent times, a lot of been made of the three amigos in Miami. Now, call me crazy, but I think the situation smells a little too much like a 7Eleven pie. It might look good, but you know there is something not quite right about it. If it were a Caltex on the other hand…
So if Miami Thrice aren’t the fantasy trio I am hot about, what it? We’re not going to delve into player discussion just yet because we have three months to start doing that. Instead, the issue at hand is categories you should be thinking about when trying to work out players. I’ll state up front that these are purely thoughts related to H2H leagues with 9 categories. Over the past two years I have developed a deep seated hatred for all categories starting with ‘A’. Namely, assists. Instead of focusing on something, I actively focus against something, and assists are that thing. Despite losing the Self Esteem League final two seasons running against teams stacked with point guards, I feel my strategy is primed for a spectacular third year.
Let’s get one thing straight. You load up on assists, you load up on turnovers. You win one category, you automatically lose the other. It’s as simple as that in my books. Exploring this proposition with a quick glance at the assist:turnover ration leaders from last season:
| Chris Paul | 4.29 |
| Carlos Arroyo | 4.17 |
| Jose Calderon | 4.08 |
| Jason Kidd | 3.71 |
| Mike Bibby | 3.44 |
| Chris Duhon | 3.44 |
| Jason Williams | 3.42 |
| Rajon Rondo | 3.23 |
| Deron Williams | 3.17 |
| Eric Maynor | 3.13 |
Stella names… oh wait, it was Carlos Arroyo who led me to that championship, it was Carlos Boozer. You might check that list out and say “wait, what’s he complaining about? CP3, Jason Kidd, Rajon Rondo, the immortal Deron Williams… I don’t see an issue”. And that’s a fair comment, until you realise that no other league leader list looks like this. How many Mike Bibby’s do you see on the points top 10? Or Eric Maynor’s on the blocks top 10? I’m not picking on these guys because they are bad (which they are regardless), but because they have no place alongside league leaders and category building. This list means that while you can draft excellent point guards who will rack up the assists, they will also rack up the turnovers. And even worse? To get those ’2nd tier’ guys which ever category needs, it will cost you even more in turnovers. Derrick Rose averages 1 turnover for ever 2.16 assists. Mo Williams? 2.13.
I understand the counter argument could be that other players who dominate in one category might hurt in others (such as blocks and free throw %). The counter-counter argument to this, is that there are enough options in the league to build a team of high blocking, high rebounding dudes who don’t destroy your FT%. This isn’t the case for assists. Sure, you could grab CP3 in the first round and Steve Nash in the second, but you are still going to need some back up and they are already costings you a combined 5+ turnovers / game. FT% can be won by 2-3 dudes who dominate (Kevin Martin, Durant, Maggette) and then stashing your team with low volume guys who won’t do any damage.
Obviously there is more than any team than focusing on one category as in the above discussion. However I’m just trying to point out that if you lose assists in the right way, you are going to win turnovers in 9 out of 10 weeks and after that, it’s only 4 more categories to victory. This is just a small part of thinking about building a fantasy basketball team, and it’s only one option amongst many. In fact, I’m pretty sure that the majority of people who LOVE fantasy basketball, think the point guard is the best position in the game because of the potential to be so great. Just remember, for every Chris Paul and Deron Williams out there, there are 5 Mike Bibby’s and 10 Carlos Arroyo’s.
Why is this a trifecta you ask? I’m not sure. But I think it has got to do with the fact that point guards are small, fast and annoying. So when you are reading the mindless crap about point guards and power forwards, just remember, half of that mix is toxic.
