Potential WOW possibilities for fantasy 2010-11
There are always surprises in any given NBA season. Who would’ve thought last season Gerald Wallace would actually play that many games? How about rookies who actually make an impact which wasn’t happening in the past? It’s a surprise because it wasn’t expected (duh) but there are some possibilities which you can dream about and try to visualize. The following are ranked from most probable to least probable in my eyes and should be taken with the appropriate grain(s) of salt. The levels are my attempt to categorize and anyone on this list will provide a little to a lot of risk but the reward if it comes off is delicious.
“Brett Favre deciding to keep playing”: You really won’t be that surprised in this happens because it probably will, only with a shit load of ESPN coverage attached to it. LeBron James could average a triple-double. It’ll be amazing if he does, but will anyone think after the fact that he didn’t have it in him? Lots to be angry about, a renewed motivation to succeed and national coverage up the wazoo. John Wall has shown it all summer and now well into the pre-season but people still have him pegged as a 5-6th rounder most places I look (did see him in the 20s for one draft). Is it impossible to imagine him finishing in the top 20 this season with averaged close to 17 and 9 along with all the gravy? Not really. After the likes of Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry last season, you know rookies have the ability to put up the big numbers, it’s just a matter of time. That doesn’t make it any less impressive.
“Michael Jordan keeping his mouth shut until Christmas”: This is a bit less likely to happen however as the owner of a franchise, you never know. Every time I see the name Derrick Rose in the off-season, it’s always accompanied by the words “improved jump shot”. Despite this happening about every September, there is nary a shred of evidence. But surely it’s going to arrive one day? You can’t shoot 1000 shots a day and regress. Well, maybe you can, but not if you have Rose’s ability. I’m not believing this until I see it, but if you wanna go out on a limb, this is the last facet of his game which will transform him into a fantasy monster. Anthony Randolph must be happy for a new home but he has some stiff competition for minutes in NYC which is a rarity. With Amar’e manning the power forward role and Turiaf/Mozgov chewing up minutes at Center, it’s going to be interesting to see where he fits in. He has a history of not living up to the hype but on sheer athleticism he will get his shot. You’ll need to grab him before #60 I reckon in most leagues despite him being a complete 50/50 at this stage. Elton Brand is not having the same about of hype. People got burned bad last year by punting on him and it seems like no-one is ready to trust him. With an average draft rank at the moment of 88.7 (yahoo leagues), it’s not like you have to reach for him. But with Coach Collins looking to beef up his role and re-establish him as a go to man, it’s not like it’s a totally crazy pick. He has history of performing and while he is over 30, I can see a lot of upside relative to that average pick.
“The 0-5 49ers clinch their division by New Years Eve”: It’s amazing to think that this is an actual possibility but that’s just how bad the NFC West is this year (sorry for non-NFL fans). This isn’t even the worst category! Well, you might cringe at some of the names coming up but I really think there is a 20-30% chance of them hitting the big time (again) and dominating for long stretches of time. Vince Carter is not the guy he used to be. He is wasting shots, turning the ball over and doesn’t know how to be the crunch time scorer Orlando really lacks. But that said, he can still put the ball in the hoop when he tries, can pass a ball and chip in all around the court. If his motivation is high, if Orlando have it’s groove on from the start of the season AND if they are as pissed off about the Heat as they tell everyone, then Carter is going to be a nice addition. People are really ripping on him (and deservedly so) and he is in free fall in most draft lists. But you don’t just lose talent, it just rests dormant until the right time. I’m not expecting this to work out well but if it does, Carter will be a prominent piece on many fantasy rosters which end up winning their respective comps. Some people don’t care about contract years. Silly fools. Andrei Kirilenko is coming into his contract year and needs to perform if he is going to get another payday. The dude can’t rely on his body anymore and he is never going to average those past insane 5+ combined STL/BLKs yet he still holds value. Obviously a lot depends on his body. I can see him slotting onto this Jazz team though like a glove. He doesn’t have the pressure to score a bunch of points (D-Will, Jefferson will be the main options) while still being surrounded by fairly weak defensive players (or below average rebounders). I say AK has that small window to make a big splash at some stage during the season, stringing together some pretty impressive weekly totals. Andrew Bynum is probably a top 3 player on ‘Do Not Draft’ lists at the moment. It’s painful to own him. Week after week, his potential is there in flashes but the amount of games he missed or plays very limited minutes kills owners every matchup. Yet there is this inescapable feeling I get in my bones about him. He is so young, so talented and so freakin’ tall. He is still the future of the Lakers if they want him to be. I don’t have a very high opinion of his body being able to stay connected in all the right places….. but. It’s always the but. The potential is basically limitless. Plus, you can grab him in Round 9-10 in most leagues these days because of his history. I’m not advocating, just dreaming.
“Landing on the Hudson River…. when it’s frozen”: This will not happen unless divine intervention occurs on the basketball court. Still, if it does happen, just sit back and admire because you won’t be able to do anything else. I have always had this crazy fantasy which sits at the back of my head whenever I see Dwight Howard mentioned. Secretly, he knows how to hit free throws. He is just waiting to unleash it because he is such a stand up bloke and doesn’t want to destroy morale in the league by being so utterly dominant. Now I know this is outlandish and, to be frank with myself, pretty stupid on many levels. But if I can teach my under 12 kids to shoot free throws, then one day, Howard is going to wake up and be able to hit free throws. He just has to. It’s like gravity or some shit. It doesn’t have to make sense but there are a whole bunch of laws which only really smart people understand. Getting a bit off topic, but the one thing which gives me the shits more than anything about professional basketball players is not being able to hit their free throws! There is no-one stopping you, no-one abusing you. Just you and the basket. If you have to take 5000 per day over the off-season, then you do it. One person who can hit free throws and is over 7 foot is Yao Ming. Now it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Yao didn’t play a game last year and has walking disaster written all over him this year (limiting minutes, no back to backs, lots of support around him). How much is too much to ask for.. 55 games? 65? 70+? I’m not sure but if I see him anywhere near a draft spot around round 9, I know I’ll be there is a hurry because if everything does go right (and I realise I’m living in a fantasy here), he is going to provide first round value. %’s, points, boards, blocks. There is not much better than that. Perhaps my optimism is blinding me as I walk down towards th sunset yet I care not for at the moment, as I am blissfully unaware of the dangers ahead. All I see is a 1.37% chance of an 82 game season which draws me in, closer and closer.
The Triple Double Threat
There are many things in fantasy basketball which light a fire in my belly. Brook Lopez, Greg Oden’s blocks per36, Kevin Martin at the free throw line. All delicious, all the time. But there is something even greater than all of those put together and that is the player who earns the right to be called a Triple-Double Threat (TDT). The TDT is a mysterious individual. Sometimes short, sometimes slow. Sometimes he will appear from nowhere, dazzle with his talents and then disappear for weeks on end. Now they are not the be all and end all of Fantasy ball, but 10+ in three different categories is something to behold and has the ability to totally swing a game week for the better.
For the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season, there are some old timers, some new players and some surprises who could become the next TDT. They include;
Jason Kidd: Old Man River used to be the ultimate Triple Double machine. But last season, he topped out only twice. Reason? He couldn’t score enough baskets to reach 10 points. Kidd reached double digits 4 times in Boards and Assists without making it to 10 points. Poor effort on his behalf, but it shows he still has the fire within him to be a true TDT. Personally, I prefer my threats to be a bit bigger, a bit scarier and a more angry. Kidd fits none of these categories at all. Plus, he plays with Dirk. I bet that locker room is a barrel of laughs.
Rajon Rondo: The little green alien is the man these days when it comes to potential TDT. He had two triple-doubles in the playoffs alone last season, to go with his 2 from the regular season. However there were another four times last season when he was less than 3 combined boards/assists away from a triple-double. Did you hear that the Celtics aged even more during the off-season, except for their point guard? All this means more stats, more speed and more everything from the little guy. The TDT title is his to lose at this point, which is admittedly 8 weeks before the season even starts.
Andre ‘Don’t call me Iggy’ Iguodala: If you have to tell people to stop calling you something, you are a bit of a joke. AI9 as he prefers to be called (seriously?!) might not have actually accrued a trip-doub last season but was a constant threat, an important part of the TDT make up. Despite averaging 5.8 assists per game, Iggy only managed to break the 10+ assists four times in 2009-10. That means that, a) he is very consistent with his assists, and b) he is angry at me for calling him Iggy. With Evan Turner on board, together with the evolution of Jrue Holiday, I think his prospects for more stat stuffing triple-doubles might have diminished, however he can be the token guy who always makes a list like this.
Dwight Howard: D12 is the first player to make the list for something other than the stock standard points/boards/assists combo. The big fella doesn’t quite have the touch to rack up the assists, so instead uses two hands every night to count his blocks. Like Iggy before him, Howard didn’t actually manage a triple-double last season, but he did block 7+ shots four times, giving himself every chance. I’d love to see the big man do it as his smile would be wide enough to cover Stan Van Gundy’s belly.
Stephen Curry: As mad dog Nelson continues to bark orders which his players ignore, Stephen Curry continues to amass gigantic totals of everything. Lots of people used to get on board Chris Paul to get a quad-doub (4 categories with double digits for you mathematically challenged ball junkies), but my money is on Curry. The man steals a ball quicker than Iguodala falls over, which is very quickly. That said, Curry only actually achieved one trip-doub last season, so he is still a fair way from going to even greater heights.
Terrence Williams: T-Will is the next big thing in New Jersey, which is to say, he is relatively small fry to the rest of us. But man can the kid ball. When given the opportunity at the end of last season, he averaged 14 points, 7 boards and 6 assists over 7 games in April. The dude is a smooth operator who will surprise many this season with his ability to create stats from nowhere. A true sophomore TDT.
Boris Diaw: It pains me to put him alongside these other players but according to Hoopedia, he is “He is lauded for his unselfish, but assertive play, and his versatility also makes him a triple-double threat”. I have never seen anyone laud him for his assertive play, but whatever. They go on for a whole paragraph about his previous triple-doubles. There is another reason he makes this list. In 2008-09, he had a pretty nice stat line of 14/7/7/7… until you realise that one of those 7′s was his turnovers. Perhaps the only player in the league who is able to threaten a negative trip-doub, that being 10+ turnovers.
Some of these players are highly regarded first round picks in fantasy ball, others are just drifting along hoping you will pick them up so they can reach for that elusive goal of becoming a TDT.
(For the record, I know LBJ is probably going to average a triple-double this season. He is also a dick, thus gets no love)
Fantasy Basketball 2010: The First Round Dilemma Pt. 3
In this final part of our series, I’m going to glance at something many people shy away from because it looks too ghastly and unworkable. He’s heavy and he ain’t my brother… Dwight Howard ladies and gentlemen! In the Yellow corner, we have Pau Gasol, who despite being beaten over the head by my big stick when I was angry last week, has kindly agreed to show up again (for more beating). After reading all those Roto biased lists around the mainstream fantasy sites, you might already be blinking. How can we compare these two? Well, let me tell you. A well constructed team built around Howard will wipe the floor with most of the crud other people try and compete with. This is Head to Head ONLY. Remember that before you start ranting.
(Please note that this post is being written to this song on loop, so excuse me for the bad language)
Let me put it out right out there. I’ve never drafted Dwight Howard and might never do so. However, this isn’t about that. This is about if someone held a gun to your head and said “Howard or Gasol?”, what your answer would be (after clarifying that it wasn’t Marc Gasol because that is sensible). H2H fantasy basketball allows you do dump categories. Categories. Plural. My advice with Howard? Give yourself a competitive advantage and dump TOs along with FT%. This means instead of worrying about people cramping your style with their 3.5 turnovers per game (hello Monta Ellis), you can pick people well before other people even start considering them. Let me explain. You want to pick Stephen Jackson but you know people will laugh at you if you do it before the 4th round. However if you take out his FT% and his TOs, Jackson was ranked #34 last season. So go ahead and take him with your late 3rd round pick. No-one else is willing because he doesn’t conform to their standards of what ’3rd round value’ is, but he suits you perfectly with Dwight.
I know Dwight, I can't even believe we are debating this...
So, now we’ve established the way forward after we pick Howard, why should we pick Howard? Because quite simply, he has been a top 3 Fantasy H2H player in the last two seasons if you remove his FT% and TOs. That’s a pretty good reason right there. With league leading numbers in both boards and blocks, together with a pretty wicked FG%, you can literally bank those categories as long as you don’t pick like David Khan for the remainder of the draft. In some unsolicited advice, here are a list of players who go great with Howard – Rajon Rondo, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Stephen Jackson, Tyrus Thomas (god love him), Tim Duncan, Andrew Bogut, Rudy Gay, Trevor Ariza, Antwan Jamison, Lamar Odom, Blake Griffin and my personal favourite, Andris Biedrins. Sure, most of them are big guys who have trouble with their FT% but you can also trade target guards who are apparently having trouble with their stroke and steal them with lower value players than would otherwise be necessary. Drafting Howard is a great option. But that’s only Part A. Part B is where it all succeeds or collapses in a massive pile of horse crud. On Howard personally, can I just say I also think you will see an uptick in his FT% this season, per offsetting his absolute negative status as a FT% killer. Further, his offensive game gets better every off season and eventually he is going to pull it all together. Remember: He is 25 years old and hasn’t even entered the prime of his career.
I’ve actually tried very hard to like Pau Gasol. He played for years on a pretty average franchise. He did it with esteem and pride. He was not a dick when it came to winning. But despite this, I just don’t like the guy. Call me a hater, but that’s just the way I am. Recognising these facts, I’ll try to stick to the objective truth.
My favourite Pau Gasol picture ever.
Essentially, my argument boils down to this (in the post below about Pau Gasol):
Over the past three seasons with the Lakers, his FG% has steadily dropped from a high of 59% to 53% last season.
You know what I don’t like? A PF/C whose FG% drops consistently over 150 games with the same club. It’s just not very nice. What can we expect this year? Slightly less of everything. Gasol has a career average rebound per game of 9.0. Last season, he averaged 11.3. Yes he did play very well, but can we expect this again from a man who turned 30 in the offseason? Perhaps. But perhaps not. Can we expect his points to be maintained at such a high rate while the Lakers try and develop Andrew Bynum, who only just turned 23? Perhaps. Perhaps not. Will he play more than 75 games after missing 35 over the past three seasons? You know the rest by now. This is what is clear: Gasol is a first round draft pick in the vast majority of leagues. He is a very good fantasy player. He scores, boards, blocks and passes better than any other big man plus he is efficient. But with Gasol, at least in my eyes, you are unsure about his ability to turn it on, week after week, in a fashion that I want my big man to.
The end result? If you are not willing to punt categories, then Gasol is your man by a country mile. However Dwight Howard can be a very successful fantasy pick, even more so if you surround him by other players whose value increases by ignoring their faults. Relatively, it’s riskier – but hot damn, it’s exciting.
Endnote: I realise by putting in a photo with Pau Gasol and a Llama, I am probably not doing him justice. Sue me. If you want a Pau Gasol love blog, you can read all about it here.
The Case For, The Case Against: Free Throw Dumping In Round Two
Dumping FT% in the 2nd round
Over at Damn Lies and Statistics, they are having a 4 man expert mock draft (warning: roto style, may induce sleep). In their look at Round Two, a real trend sticks out. People are willing to draft FT% killers. In that specific post, they include Dwight, J Smoove, Rondo and Iguodala. Tyreke Evans might pop up as well. Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m all for drafting these players in the 2nd round (actually, this is a lie but I like to at least try and start out even handed), but this is just a look at some of the underlying reasons why people will make these decisions. Of course, try and keep in mind that in H2H leagues, it is widely assumed that it’s OK to dump a category (or two if your brave) because of the strictly mono e mono aspect relative to roto leagues.
What are some of the factors towards this trend? Well, we can start with the fact that once you get past round 1 in nba drafts, every player is going to have some deficiencies. Jason Kidd doesn’t score, Steve Nash doesn’t defend, Brandon Roy doesn’t play 82 games (this one is worse). So it’s OK that they are no good at FT%? Not quite.
The percentage categories in fantasy basketball are pretty special. While the others (points, boards, threes, blocks, steals, assists, turnovers) are all purely based on empirical totals, it is impossible go to backwards once you have accrued stats in these categories (apart from turnovers, where going forwards is going backwards, but that is a discussion for another day). With percentages, one bad day from your star can literally ruin the entire week. Think about when Kevin Durant shoots 6 from 25, instead of an average 9 from 19 performance. Those 19 missed shots in theoretical game one have created such a gulf that unless the rest of your team is made up of Gasol brothers, you can nearly kiss goodbye to the category for the week. While his FG% will average out over the course of a season, H2H is week to week, which doesn’t help you.
With FT%, this is even more important due to the disparity between players who take a large volume of free throws. While a good fantasy players who shoot 55% from the field might make 8-10 baskets a game, good players who shoot 48% will generally take a higher number. With free throws, this doesn’t occur. Let’s look at the top 5 field goal attempts vs. the top 5 free throw attempts from 2009-10.
Field Goal Attempts: Durant (794), James (768), Nowitzki (720), Wade (719), Bryant (716). Highest: James .503 – Lowest: Bryant .456
Free Throw Attempts: Durant (840), Howard (816), James (773), Wade (702), Stoudemire (632). Highest: Durant .900 – Lowest: Howard .592
Of qualified players, there are only 38 players between James and Bryant for field goal shooting while there are 129 players between Durant and Howard (and 73 between Durant and Amar’e).
So what you may ask? It’s extremely hard to overcome a bad free throw shooter relative to other categories. Other players can make up gaps from your best players in other categories, but free throws is different. Basically, the rule is that the player must have other mind blowing stats to overcome this big hole in their game.
That’s where the other side of the debate comes into it’s own. Some of these players can dominate so thoroughly in other categories that it doesn’t make one iota of difference if you lose free throws by 30% every week. Dwight Howard is one of those players. League leading in blocks and boards, plus a pretty handy FG% to boot. Yes please. Rajon Rondo is another. He is only going to get more fantasy relevance in that extremely old Boston team as the season progresses. Pick away I say. I’m not sure if Josh Smith or Andre Iguodala qualify in the same way, but they only took 5.2 attempts each game last season so who knows.
In the end, this trend seems to just be the done thing because that’s how the majority of the experts rate FT% and it’s impact on your team. I am more sceptical and probably won’t be taking any of the above players (apart from Smith if he falls far enough) in any of my drafts. Maybe this is showing my ignorance, but it is what it is.
Here are some other things which might make more sense than what you just read:
A look ahead at the possibilities for Blake Griffin this season.
Fantasy Point Guard Rankings from FantasyBasketballDaily.
Damn Lies and Statistics are into the 6th round of their 4 man mock draft, which includes Doc A from Rotoworld.
Furthermore, GMTR should have some more team previews up soon, while Jason at fBasketballBlog will have Round 7 of our Two Man Mock Draft soon.
Two Man Draft – Round Two
Now that Jason over at fBasketballBlog has kicked off our two man draft, I’ll be tagging in and jumping to the second round. The idea here is not to make a simple list of players from 1 through to 156 (12 teams, 13 picks) but to try to think like owners and create teams which would be viable in the cut throat world of fantasy hoops. Some teams will be ‘all rounders’, while others will end up specializing in certain categories.
Shawn Kemp. No, he doesn't make an appearance in this draft, but I wish he did.
Before we begin, let it be known I have a bias against point guards and this is purely H2H stuff.
13. Steve Nash: While I dislike point guards, when you take David Lee and his lack of blocks, you don’t have much of a choice. Nash is the best left on the board. He is a perfect fit in the Suns system, and even without Amar’e on the pick ‘n roll, he will get his numbers. Mostly this is for assists but I see Nash taking a total leadership role this year which includes a higher scoring load, helping out points and threes. The Lee/Nash one-two hit puts this team in a great place to compete across all categories except blocks. With such a solid foundation, specialist players can be picked up later on to fill gaps.
14. Dwight Howard: You’ll be lucky to pick Howard up here in most leagues, but if you have the chance, you should take it. D12 rocks the entire package at the Center spot. Last year, he led the league with 13.2 boards and 2.8 blocks per game. Everyone knows about his deficiencies but with Gerald Wallace as the other pick, it’s time to start forgetting about free throws. Remember, there are still 8 other categories. Blocks are the hardest numbers to find in fantasy ball, but this team has already chalked up a significant advantage there. The underrated fact about Howard? He has only missed 3 games in the last 3 seasons. That’s fantasy gold.
15. Amar’e Stoudemire: New York basketball was built for Amar’e. In the form of Steve Nash, he has lost his Robin, but this Knicks team is begging for him. As I type, he is in Israel getting his Hebrew on. With Gallo playing the three man, AntRand sitting in the middle and Raymond Felton (a very misunderstood point guard) feeding him the ball, I’m excited for STAT this season. This fantasy team already has Dwyane Wade, and adding Amar’e creates that size advantage, building on Wade’s above average blocks for his position. For a big man who can give you 20/10 production, he doesn’t hurt you anywhere (2.6 turnovers, 77% FT in 09/10). He is definitely over his injury concerns after playing all 82 games last season.
16. Carmelo Anthony: Stephen Curry can do it all, so Melo is the perfect round two player who might not be much of an all round type of player, but knows how to make an impact in specific categories. Melo was a bonafide MVP candidate last season before Christmas. He is the purest scorer in the game, dropping a career high 28 points per game last season. His main strength is FT% (83% on 8.9 attempts). While some scorers struggle when their teams are slumping, Anthony is clutch when playing iso and lives for the big moments. Even if the Nuggets are up and down, like the end of last season, Anthony was still a staple for many fantasy champions. Curry and Anthony together allows this team to focus on big stats down the line.
17. Brook Lopez: The good things – Has never missed a game. Shoots 81% from the free throw line as a Center. Managed nearly 19 points per game despite the Nets only winning 12 games in 2009-10. The not so good – On a team full of nobodies, can only manage 13 shots per game. Blocked less shots in his second season despite playing 6 minutes more per game. Shot less than 50% from the field last season. This season is his for the taking, with a new coach and some good new teammates who will contribute to wins but won’t dominate the stats. In fantasy terms, that’s delicious. BroLo should be a 20/10 guy this season and because of his efficiency with the freebies, he is a rare type of player. Good centers are the hardest players to get. D-Will and Lopez are not going to take over the world this season, but you don’t win fantasy with your first two picks and this is a great start.
18. Rajon Rondo: When I first did this, Rondo was about 5 spots lower. But then I thought about it. What happens when you throw three old dudes together, with a sole focus on the playoffs, surround them by mid level talent and stop gaps (Hello Jermaine O’Neal) and try to keep it all together with an alien? The alien dominates. The only reason Rondo is not a top tier PG is his inability to hit free throws and he lack of three’s. However in the playoff’s last season, Rondo hit 37.5% from distance. I wouldn’t expect him to turn all Ray Allen on owners, but don’t be surprised when he has 2-3 per week. Who knows about his FT% though, that’s just rubbish. But as one of the highest rebounding point guards (4.4 per game) and near league leading thief (2.3 per game), he is a highly valued guard. Plus, he still has upside as the rest of his team will continue to fall off as they age. Perfect fit for Gasol if you follow the point guard/power forward strategy. Always remember, point guards who can’t shoot three’s is not the end of the world as so many experts think as three’s is one of the easiest categories to pick up in the latter rounds and on the waiver wire.
19. Josh Smith: A lot of players don’t like Josh Smith. But last season he turned a significant corner. Not only did he play 81 games, but he stopped taking three pointers. This was his biggest weakness and as a result, his FG% was over 50 last season. He does the dirty work (1.6 steals, 2.1 blocks) which many others don’t, but doesn’t suffer in the more voluminous categories (15.7 points, 8.7 boards). He is consistently bad at free throws, but with Danny Granger on board, there should be no issues here. Smith is the perfect second round option at this stage as he helps out nearly everywhere for a SF/PF. As a bonus, he had a career high 4.2 assists per game last season.
20. Al Jefferson: This is probably the first real reach. Jefferson is an unknown quantity at this point in time. He disappointed oh so many owners last season and I would be surprised to see him at this position in most drafts. But that unknown factor is also a bucket load of potential upside. In his first two seasons at the T’Wolves, he averaged 20+/10+ with blocks, steals and a healthy FT% to boot. The Jazz places him with one of the best point guards in the league which he has never experienced before, and while he will still be undersized, he is the best Center left on the board. Building on Bryant’s foundation for this team, Jefferson is a legitimate first tier center when healthy, which is hopefully all season.
21. Jason Kidd: I’m a bit wary of drafting two team-mates 1st and 2nd, but Kidd doesn’t really know how to stop. While there are reporters out of Dallas that he will be utilised less this season than those past, I’ll have to see it to believe it. He actually slightly increased his playing time and points per game last season. At 37, that’s impressive. He won’t score a ton, but that’s why Dirk is there. What he will do, hit the deep ball, dish out dimes, board and steal, are perfect for this spot. The more I think about it, the more these two tick every box when combined.
22. Chris Bosh: I’ve already written about Bosh and his potential here. You should be looking at 21/8 with a bunch of efficiency which I believe justifies this spot. He is a solid PF/C, missing only blocks as a facet of his game. Chris Paul and Chris Bosh is text book point guard/power forward strategy. Easy to consolidate around in future rounds and very hard to match up against. While quite conservative (and some would say boring), it is virtually risk free if injuries do not present.
23. Brandon Roy: This is first round talent stuck in a fragile body which scares off most owners. While I took him at 13 last year, probably a tad too soon, this year he is in free fall. But ask yourself what has changed? No new team-mates. No change in coach. This season’s Portland team is very similar to last years and that means Roy is a fantasy sneak if you can stomach the risk involved with the injury factor. With LBJ doing everything known to man on a basketball court, Roy will complement and extend this across nearly all categories. He is Kobe-light, but without the guarantee of 82 games.
24. Tyreke Evans: Durant is a hard pick to match up with, but if you go first, you get the benefit of double dipping at the 24/25 spot. So I’ve done the easy thing and picked the best available player. I’ll leave it up to Jason to really complement these two players with a third awesome option. I’ve seen predictions for Evans as high as 12 (!) but I still think he has a long way to go fantasy-wise. He might even fall back a step or two this season. DeMarcus Counsins will take some offense, as will the development of other young players on the roster, such as Omri Casspi. I don’t doubt Evan’s talent, just that with a roster which is getting pretty crowded, it looks like he will have to share the ball move this season. That said, great value at #24 and will fit like a glove with KD to cover all the bases.
So, to finish up. Durant/Evans, LBJ/Roy, CP3/CB4, Dirk/Kidd, Kobe/Jefferson, Granger/J Smoove, Gasol/Rondo, D-Will/Lopez, S Curry/Melo, Wade/Amar’e, Wallace/Howard and Nash/David Lee.
Over to you Jason…
Where rankings are made
While most fantasy basketball enthusiasts are busy watching their baseball team or having a real life in the summertime, other, more evil hearted people, are conspiring against your team already. 3 months before the season has even nearly begun. Who are these people? Well, if something is wrong with sports, together with the blogosphere having disregard for it, it is only one of two things… Rugby League or ESPN. And since Rugby League should never be mentioned again, we’ll stick with ESPN.
Often those at the top are victim of tall poppy syndrome. See Rudd, Kevin. And often those emotions are completely unwarrented. However I feel safe in saying after ESPN’s last couple of big basketball stories (The Decision, the production of the NBA Finals), that in this case they completely deserve it. But why are they trying to destroy your fantasy team in mid-summer? I don’t know. The proof is here though. The ESPN Fantasy Basketball top 150 rankings. But Brian McKitsh is so cute? But ESPN is the only thing I use when I do my draft prep? Be damned people.
Here are but three issues with the above list (the July 19 Version).
1) There is no preface whatsoever about what type of rankings these area. Roto? H2H? 9 cats? No trade? Lots of trades? Incompetent owners? By having a quick glance, I can nearly deduct that it’s a Head to Head league because Dwight Howard is at number 7 and there is no asterisk near his name. You might casually say, this isn’t a big deal. But this is a MASSIVE deal. ESPN and Yahoo are the two biggest fantasy sites on the net. Nearly all beginners would be getting 95% of their advice from these sites and lists just like this. For Fantasy Basketball to ever grow into a real rival to the MLB or NFL, this sort of stuff has to be sorted out. If, into week three, you see that Dwight Howard is actually going to bust your balls in your newly minted Roto league and he was your first pick, how are you going to feel? Ask Tom Brady owners from two seasons ago. Some people will just have fun regardless, but some will not. They will not come back. They will not play again. It’s pretty simple in my books. A nice two sentence preface about what the list actually represents would go a long way in fantasy basketball circles.
2) Rajon Rondo (#22) and Chris Bosh (#23) have swapped spots since the last update (date unknown but after the Decision). Why did this occur? None of the 21 players above the list swapped places. No-one fell. No-one rose. However Rondo was deemed to have inched ahead of Bosh. Because of… His rad shoes? Well, maybe. But we can’t be sure as there is no explanation for this. I understand the need to get stuff out quickly, meet deadlines and keep things concise so people will read them, but what I don’t understand is how this list works and why people move up and down, because there is no commentary alongside it. And ESPN fantasy basketball analysis can be VERY good, when it takes the time and get’s it right.
3) Risk Aversion in the highest form. The two standouts for me here are Troy Murphy (#43) and Greg Oden (#150). Murphy might not be an amazing player. He is slow, doesn’t really contribute to winning actual basketball games and finds defending is sometimes just too hard. However, he is money in fantasy basketball. M-O-N-E-Y. I know people drop off after awhile, but this a dude who finished top 15 ranked (Yahoo Average Rankings) over the past two seasons and is in a CONTRACT year. C’mon people. 43? Wedged in between Joakim Noah and Baron Davis? B-Diddy??? It makes my blood boil. If you want the best big man to hit open three pointers and grab 10+ boards per game, look no further. The best small ball center in the league. Bar none.
This is where people might start losing me. Greg Oden has killed owners in the past. In fact, anyone who has ever drafted him, has been hurt eventually by his inability to stay on the court. But hear me out. Despite averaging 4.0 fouls per 22 minutes last season, listen to these November numbers. 12.9 points, 64% FG, 7.8 boards, 2.1 blocks AND he doesn’t kill your FT% (66.6% on a low 3.5 attempts for career). OK, so he is no Pau Gasol. True. But this kid (and he is still a kid) is on schedule for 5v5 practice in september and full ability by training camp. Yes, he has been injured. But you know what? So was Andrew Bogut for 4 seasons and now he is ranked #29. Greg Oden has disappointed in the past. But this is a guy who is built to play NBA basketball. He is deft on his feet, swift for a 7 footer and can just be beastly on the defensive end. Don’t reach for him in the 5th round, but the 10th round isn’t out of the question.
This is not meant to sound too harsh on ESPN. They have standards, editors and all sorts of crap I don’t understand. They also have a brand. However I think, despite the fact it’s only a game, as the gorilla in the room, there should be some more explanation around this type of stuff. These lists set the tone for everyone else. Bloggers read them and slowly turn conservative. Beginners read them and might never come back. From here, other lists are dreamed up and populated.
That’s enough ranting. I was planning on something much more positive, but that’ll have to wait until next time (no more stumbling across ESPN in the future).
In the meantime, links!
FantasyHoopster is back at it, as he couldn’t resist the urge to blog in the summertime. Nice. But please note, I do not condone any talk of Anthony Lin after last summer’s Anthony Randolph debacle.
GMTR are working their way through the NBA teams already. And with zingers like this, “At this point, if you’re interested in getting Ford for your pick-up team, Larry Bird wants to speak with you.”, how could you resist? I don’t wanna sound like a LeBron groupie, but Nels and Patrick really set the standard, even in mid-july.
I’ve only just been introduced to Daniel Eade on Twitter, and I don’t agree with much he has to say about LBJ, but it’s an interesting perspective regardless.
A super piece from FBasketballBlog on some myths and truths about fantasy basketball. He’s on the money with the majority of the strategies as well.
Until next time.
