Fantasy Round Table #1
Some of you might have seen the Fantasy Round Table doing the rounds last season at various blogs. Lester’s Legends sought out participants for this year and I’m glad to come along for the ride.
The first question is how will LeBron’s taking his talents to South Beach affect his fantasy production?
My take is just below but more importantly, this is the link for all the other responses (and there are a whole bunch of people involved this season)
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James is a natural passer and he has fun doing it. Whether it’s those behind the back flicks or the no-look, cross court bullet, it’s like a production for him. It is here that he is the polar opposite of Dwyane Wade, who will be the beneficiary of someone finally being able to find him. Naturally then, a bump in his assists is to be expected, especially when we consider that Chris Bosh is going to be knocking down open 15 footers with regularity. I think this will result in a small change with regard to his pure statistical production. I don’t know if it’ll be high enough to threaten 10 per game, but his career average is 7.0 and I would expect something similar or slightly higher than last season’s 8.6.
LeBron also obviously knows how to score. Averaging just a tick under 30 points last year, he can do it almost any way except efficiently from beyond the arc or at the free throw line. The Heat are going to need to score points to win games (duh) but he has enough talent around him to ensure that it doesn’t have to be 30 a night. Instead of doing everything himself like at Cleveland, the load will be well and truly shared. I wouldn’t be surprised in Bosh ends up averaging nearly as many points as Wade or James when all is said and done (and by nearly, I mean within 4 points). This is probably the one area which could see a substantial (3-4 points) drop off.
Apart from that, I think most things will same. He hasn’t forgotten how to steal, block or rebound the ball. Just like in Cleveland, there is no true Center. However unlike in Cleveland, I expect the Heat are going to be able to win a bunch of games without James needing to be on the court for 40+ minutes night in, night out.
13 Predictions
I see lots of lists everywhere I look on basketball blogs at the moment. The internet + fantasy + basketball = lists. Why aren’t I getting in on that action I asked myself? Probably because I don’t do anything the easy way was the response. BUt times, they are a changing. So here is a proper list, with an arbitrary number of points on a specific subject.
13) Kevin Martin will play more games than Gilbert Arenas and also have more fantasy value. Boom. Take that email argument from two days ago. This came out of a discussion with my Gilbert Arenas loving house-mate who thinks that Arenas is about to turn into the next incarnation of Pistol Pete Maravich. Apparently when John Wall is the savior, miraculous things happen to players who have lost their way. I call absolute balony on the grandest of scales. I do think Arenas will provide fantasy value but a top 5 SG? Nope. Lead the league in 3PTM? Nope. He will continue to shoot a terrible clip for FT% and manage a way above average TO rate for a SG. Kevin Martin on the other hand is about to light it up, Rockets style. He is playing for a smart coach and embedded in the highest basketball IQ team in the league. He has zero pressure on his shoulders with Yao and Brooks running the show. I can easily see 20+ points per night, with multiple threes, a wicked FT% and best of all, a career high FG%. He will miss time but 70+ games is to be expected.
12) DeMarcus ‘Boogie’ Cousins will win fantasy rookie of the year. This is mainly because of what he won’t do, as opposed to what he will do. John Wall will also put up big numbers, but like every rookie point guard to ever have played, his FG% will be somewhere in the dirt and his turnover numbers will be through the roof. Cousins has the advantage of being a big man who comes in as the most NBA ready rookie of those selected in the lottery. For fantasy, this means relatively low turnovers, higher FG% while still doing things like score, board and block. There are no negatives here people unless he has a brain explosion. The more I see of Cousins, the more I get this feeling that Sac-Town are going to fall in love with him and Evans running the place ragged. While he might initially battle for minutes, by Week 6 he will be playing 30+ night in, night out. You can’t keep a good thing down.
11) Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James will all average within 4 points of each other. Every time the Heat get mentioned, all I see are camera flashes and smirks on faces accompanied by a loud groan from the NBA masses. It has already reached that point. However this is not just a story about one player. Or two. It’s going to be about all three. People will look back and Chris Bosh could well be the reason why this all worked out fine, or why it all crashed in flames. He has to want it at least a thousand times more than his play in Toronto suggests. He will get his points in all kinds of manners which we can’t even understand yet. Left unguarded under the basket, dropping 18 foot jump shots with no-one chasing him down, alley-oops from distance. This season will have it all for Chris Bosh and that means points, points and more points. I’ll put it officially at 22.9 per game, which would be more than enough to stay within the margin of Wade and James. It also makes him a very attractive fantasy option, one of a handful of 20/10 guys out there. He still probably can’t block, but those points will be some of the most efficient in the league.
Baby Davis didn't make the cut for 2010-11 predictions
10) Jameer Nelson will storm back into some form and be one of those pesky point guards that seems to have a blinding week for your opponent but against no-one else. Two seasons ago, despite playing only 42 games, Nelson was the bee’s knees as a second tier point guard. He has never been one for a cache of assists but he has the ability to turn it on when required. In that 2008-09 season, he averaged 2 3ptm, 1+ steal and amazing efficiency. His drop off has been pretty substantial since then, as he struggled with injury and the arrival of Vince Carter. But Nelson is the glue guy for Orlando this season. Carter hasn’t proved anything and may get moved before the deadline. Rashard Lewis is stuck in major funk from which I don’t think there is an escape. The thing is, this Magic team is only good enough when it really counts when Jameer is in top gear. Chris Duhon and Jason Williams are capable but small spells will be the order of the day. If the rumors about Dwight Howard’s offensive game (I think I’ve heard this one before though) are true, it’s only going to contribute. I’m not advocating you take Nelson anywhere in particular for your squads just that he’ll bounce back and cause some pain for opponents at some point during this season. He is too good not too.
9) The proliferation of the 1-1-1 guy. Last season we only saw two players actually record more than 1 three, 1 steal and 1 block every game over the course of the season and they are called Durant and James. Many others were close, but close sorta don’t cut it in my books. This season, there will be a rash of 1-1-1 players crowing their talents from the treetops. A certainty you can add to the list is Dwyane Wade. But let us focus on some more low key guys. Whatever you think about Channing Frye, as he seems to be a pretty polarising player in fantasy circles, he should average more than 27 minutes a game and in turn, nudge up his steals (0.8) and blocks (0.9) from last season to walk on hallowed turf. Andrea Bargnani should easily make this list but can’t steal a ball worth a damn. Last season he only managed 0.3 per game. Lazy? Perhaps but if he is going to be ‘da man’ in Toronto, this will have to change. There are a pair of Knicks (Gallo and Azubuike) who will be there about. If you are a Rudy Gay believer (and I’m not) then his 0.8 3ptm and 0.8 blocks totals are disappointing for a player of his ability but I don’t see him busting many balls on the court given his massive pay day. The most promising candidates though are those who were short, but only managed to play limited minutes. Nic Batum and Michael Beasley fit the bill here. And a flier? Troy Murphy only averages 0.4 blocks per game but playing alongside Brook Lopez and coming across with help defense could, in some far off fairy land, bump this total up.
8) Serge Ibaka will start for the Thunder and become the Chris Anderson for the next decade. The playoff series against the Lakers was Ibaka’s coming out party. Despite losing that series, Air Congo as he is affectionately known to OKC supporters was a monster. Against the best big combination in the league and the eventual NBA champions, Ibaka held his own defensively for long periods of time (25 minutes per game) over the 6 games. He isn’t exactly an offensive mega star in waiting but with Durant and Westbrook as teammates it’s not exactly an issue. But he can block. And block and block. So, instead of picking Chris Anderson with that 11th round pick, aim for Ibaka in the 10th instead just to make sure you nab him.
7) Old guys will continue to make fools of the haters out there. I’m talking mostly about three guys. Marcus Camby, Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. For the past two years I have been railing against anyone who brings their names up, deriding them for believing in players who cannot keep doing what they do. Yet they keep on keeping on regardless of what anybody says. Perhaps this is my personal mea culpa, an apology to what I believe have been overrated old fantasy stars but in reality they are just plain fantasy stars like everyone else. Steve Nash led the league in assists last year. Marcus Camby finished the season with a top 25 overall fantasy rank regardless of what system you use. Jason Kidd has missed 3 games in the past 2 seasons while throwing down three pointers with alarming regularity (+2 per game) and amazing accuracy (+40%), not to mention the 9+ assists and 5+ boards. Each of these guys have slid down draft boards over the past month because of concerns about age but what makes this year so much different? Nothing.
Steve Nash as he was originally intended
6) Twitter will make you more competitive in your league. If you are reading this blog, you probably know what twitter is. That said, unless you are a junkie, this isn’t going to apply to you. You know those people, scanning their phones every 15 seconds not because they got a text message from an actual friend but because they racked up another 3 @ replies. Those people. Well, they have an advantage over you and your reliance on Rotoworld to update you on the latest player movements, injuries and form. You are officially 1-2 hours behind the twitterati who if this were last season, have already picked up Darren Collison as Chris Paul is still sitting on courtside wondering what just happened. Twitter explodes at key moments because someone is always watching the news as it’s happening and this news spreads like wide fire, first on Twitter then to other parts of the internet and finally to the mainstream. If you think catching the scores on SportsCenter when you get home is going to cut it in 2010-11 for your fantasy news, you have another thing coming my friend.
5) Elton Brand will be the player who most outperforms his Average Draft Position. I know this is a big call considering it’s normally some rookie or super back up who was not even drafted in the vast majority of leagues, but I think Brand is just going to kill it this season. This comes from someone who dislikes watching 76er games so much, if it happens to be one of the two televised games that week in Australia, it doesn’t get tivo’d. Doug Collins is on the record as a big Brand supporter. He is fully recovered from his injury. All signs point to a massive boast. One the other side, his name is often mentioned as a 4th or 5th option at PF and nowhere I read is even the least bit excited in him. Perhaps wisely, but I don’t understand how a player with as much talent as he obviously does can continue to suck for so long. 34+ minutes, 19/9 with 2+ blocks.
4) As opposed to the above, Paul Pierce will be the most disappointing player related to his ADP. On the latest yahoo big board he is late 4th round. Pierce was a great player. He led his team when it was going through the worst era of the franchise. He led the league in scoring. He adapted his game when necessary over the past three seasons. But he looks OLD. With KG fit and better than ever (compared to the last two seasons anyway), Rondo taking on more and more responsibility and the combination of Ray Allen and Nate Rob in the backcourt and Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal in the front spells the least reliance on Pierce since he was a rookie. He will still get minutes, still do that annoying head fake, draw the contact crap that has been his bread and butter for years but the excitement and the bang for your buck is way over. 14-15 points with filler (2-3 assists, 3-4 boards, 1.2 3ptm) is fine for the Celtics this season but the problem is, that’s not 4th round material.
A picture tells 1000 words
3) Kid Delicious (aka Kevin Durant) will be the most dominant fantasy player since Garnett’s 2003-04 season. The gap between KD and whoever ends up as the 2nd option is going to be spectacular (barring injury). Sure, he is a consensus number one pick everywhere you look, but his dominance is going to be unbelievable. Box scores are literally going to explode with goo half way through the 3rd quarter. I’m big on going over the top, so let’s not stop at the 2000 word count. Toss out the pencil, grab your permanent marker and write this down: 33 points, 9.5 boards, 50/40/90 with 1.8 threes, 3+ steals/blocks. Eat it Chris Paul. (post script: as I was finishing this post up, this was on twitter about KD and partying. EXACTLY why he is number 1)
2) Tyreke Evans will play beautiful, exquisite basketball for the Kings but this will not translate into first round talent. I just saw this tweet from Steve Alexander (head of Rotoworld NBA) saying that he is going late first round/early second round in all of his drafts. Which makes me sick. There is no doubt he is an ungodly talent on the basketball court but one quarter of pre-season hoops against the Clippers does not mean he can shoot threes or make free-throws all season long. Sorry, just the truth.
1) Luol Deng will continue his domination of Rashard Lewis. This one is for my boy Jason over at fbasketballblog who is forever doubting the talents of Britain’s greatest export. If you are still reading, I’m sorry to end on such a middle of the road kind of thing but this is going to become my singular achievement for the season after the inevitable collapse of my fantasy teams by about week 15. Deng has been biding his time but now it has arrived. He has always flirted with being a major piece of the puzzle and now that Derrick Rose has matured a little, Joakim Noah is a beast in the middle and Kyle Korver is running around jacking threes, Deng is left to hit his stride and carry his load on offense. While Rashard Lewis might be making $19.5 MILLION US DOLLARS this season (this point needs to be emphasised over and over again with every bricked three point attempt), he cannot compete!
Two Man Draft – Round Two
Now that Jason over at fBasketballBlog has kicked off our two man draft, I’ll be tagging in and jumping to the second round. The idea here is not to make a simple list of players from 1 through to 156 (12 teams, 13 picks) but to try to think like owners and create teams which would be viable in the cut throat world of fantasy hoops. Some teams will be ‘all rounders’, while others will end up specializing in certain categories.
Shawn Kemp. No, he doesn't make an appearance in this draft, but I wish he did.
Before we begin, let it be known I have a bias against point guards and this is purely H2H stuff.
13. Steve Nash: While I dislike point guards, when you take David Lee and his lack of blocks, you don’t have much of a choice. Nash is the best left on the board. He is a perfect fit in the Suns system, and even without Amar’e on the pick ‘n roll, he will get his numbers. Mostly this is for assists but I see Nash taking a total leadership role this year which includes a higher scoring load, helping out points and threes. The Lee/Nash one-two hit puts this team in a great place to compete across all categories except blocks. With such a solid foundation, specialist players can be picked up later on to fill gaps.
14. Dwight Howard: You’ll be lucky to pick Howard up here in most leagues, but if you have the chance, you should take it. D12 rocks the entire package at the Center spot. Last year, he led the league with 13.2 boards and 2.8 blocks per game. Everyone knows about his deficiencies but with Gerald Wallace as the other pick, it’s time to start forgetting about free throws. Remember, there are still 8 other categories. Blocks are the hardest numbers to find in fantasy ball, but this team has already chalked up a significant advantage there. The underrated fact about Howard? He has only missed 3 games in the last 3 seasons. That’s fantasy gold.
15. Amar’e Stoudemire: New York basketball was built for Amar’e. In the form of Steve Nash, he has lost his Robin, but this Knicks team is begging for him. As I type, he is in Israel getting his Hebrew on. With Gallo playing the three man, AntRand sitting in the middle and Raymond Felton (a very misunderstood point guard) feeding him the ball, I’m excited for STAT this season. This fantasy team already has Dwyane Wade, and adding Amar’e creates that size advantage, building on Wade’s above average blocks for his position. For a big man who can give you 20/10 production, he doesn’t hurt you anywhere (2.6 turnovers, 77% FT in 09/10). He is definitely over his injury concerns after playing all 82 games last season.
16. Carmelo Anthony: Stephen Curry can do it all, so Melo is the perfect round two player who might not be much of an all round type of player, but knows how to make an impact in specific categories. Melo was a bonafide MVP candidate last season before Christmas. He is the purest scorer in the game, dropping a career high 28 points per game last season. His main strength is FT% (83% on 8.9 attempts). While some scorers struggle when their teams are slumping, Anthony is clutch when playing iso and lives for the big moments. Even if the Nuggets are up and down, like the end of last season, Anthony was still a staple for many fantasy champions. Curry and Anthony together allows this team to focus on big stats down the line.
17. Brook Lopez: The good things – Has never missed a game. Shoots 81% from the free throw line as a Center. Managed nearly 19 points per game despite the Nets only winning 12 games in 2009-10. The not so good – On a team full of nobodies, can only manage 13 shots per game. Blocked less shots in his second season despite playing 6 minutes more per game. Shot less than 50% from the field last season. This season is his for the taking, with a new coach and some good new teammates who will contribute to wins but won’t dominate the stats. In fantasy terms, that’s delicious. BroLo should be a 20/10 guy this season and because of his efficiency with the freebies, he is a rare type of player. Good centers are the hardest players to get. D-Will and Lopez are not going to take over the world this season, but you don’t win fantasy with your first two picks and this is a great start.
18. Rajon Rondo: When I first did this, Rondo was about 5 spots lower. But then I thought about it. What happens when you throw three old dudes together, with a sole focus on the playoffs, surround them by mid level talent and stop gaps (Hello Jermaine O’Neal) and try to keep it all together with an alien? The alien dominates. The only reason Rondo is not a top tier PG is his inability to hit free throws and he lack of three’s. However in the playoff’s last season, Rondo hit 37.5% from distance. I wouldn’t expect him to turn all Ray Allen on owners, but don’t be surprised when he has 2-3 per week. Who knows about his FT% though, that’s just rubbish. But as one of the highest rebounding point guards (4.4 per game) and near league leading thief (2.3 per game), he is a highly valued guard. Plus, he still has upside as the rest of his team will continue to fall off as they age. Perfect fit for Gasol if you follow the point guard/power forward strategy. Always remember, point guards who can’t shoot three’s is not the end of the world as so many experts think as three’s is one of the easiest categories to pick up in the latter rounds and on the waiver wire.
19. Josh Smith: A lot of players don’t like Josh Smith. But last season he turned a significant corner. Not only did he play 81 games, but he stopped taking three pointers. This was his biggest weakness and as a result, his FG% was over 50 last season. He does the dirty work (1.6 steals, 2.1 blocks) which many others don’t, but doesn’t suffer in the more voluminous categories (15.7 points, 8.7 boards). He is consistently bad at free throws, but with Danny Granger on board, there should be no issues here. Smith is the perfect second round option at this stage as he helps out nearly everywhere for a SF/PF. As a bonus, he had a career high 4.2 assists per game last season.
20. Al Jefferson: This is probably the first real reach. Jefferson is an unknown quantity at this point in time. He disappointed oh so many owners last season and I would be surprised to see him at this position in most drafts. But that unknown factor is also a bucket load of potential upside. In his first two seasons at the T’Wolves, he averaged 20+/10+ with blocks, steals and a healthy FT% to boot. The Jazz places him with one of the best point guards in the league which he has never experienced before, and while he will still be undersized, he is the best Center left on the board. Building on Bryant’s foundation for this team, Jefferson is a legitimate first tier center when healthy, which is hopefully all season.
21. Jason Kidd: I’m a bit wary of drafting two team-mates 1st and 2nd, but Kidd doesn’t really know how to stop. While there are reporters out of Dallas that he will be utilised less this season than those past, I’ll have to see it to believe it. He actually slightly increased his playing time and points per game last season. At 37, that’s impressive. He won’t score a ton, but that’s why Dirk is there. What he will do, hit the deep ball, dish out dimes, board and steal, are perfect for this spot. The more I think about it, the more these two tick every box when combined.
22. Chris Bosh: I’ve already written about Bosh and his potential here. You should be looking at 21/8 with a bunch of efficiency which I believe justifies this spot. He is a solid PF/C, missing only blocks as a facet of his game. Chris Paul and Chris Bosh is text book point guard/power forward strategy. Easy to consolidate around in future rounds and very hard to match up against. While quite conservative (and some would say boring), it is virtually risk free if injuries do not present.
23. Brandon Roy: This is first round talent stuck in a fragile body which scares off most owners. While I took him at 13 last year, probably a tad too soon, this year he is in free fall. But ask yourself what has changed? No new team-mates. No change in coach. This season’s Portland team is very similar to last years and that means Roy is a fantasy sneak if you can stomach the risk involved with the injury factor. With LBJ doing everything known to man on a basketball court, Roy will complement and extend this across nearly all categories. He is Kobe-light, but without the guarantee of 82 games.
24. Tyreke Evans: Durant is a hard pick to match up with, but if you go first, you get the benefit of double dipping at the 24/25 spot. So I’ve done the easy thing and picked the best available player. I’ll leave it up to Jason to really complement these two players with a third awesome option. I’ve seen predictions for Evans as high as 12 (!) but I still think he has a long way to go fantasy-wise. He might even fall back a step or two this season. DeMarcus Counsins will take some offense, as will the development of other young players on the roster, such as Omri Casspi. I don’t doubt Evan’s talent, just that with a roster which is getting pretty crowded, it looks like he will have to share the ball move this season. That said, great value at #24 and will fit like a glove with KD to cover all the bases.
So, to finish up. Durant/Evans, LBJ/Roy, CP3/CB4, Dirk/Kidd, Kobe/Jefferson, Granger/J Smoove, Gasol/Rondo, D-Will/Lopez, S Curry/Melo, Wade/Amar’e, Wallace/Howard and Nash/David Lee.
Over to you Jason…
How much does it hurt? Chris Bosh moves on
From what I’ve read recently, most people will still be happy to take LeBron James as a number two pick, while Dwyane Wade is no slouch either, coming in at between six and eight. However, Chris Bosh has gone from first round lock to barely scrapping into the second round. Is this a fair assumption? Let’s check it out.
In Toronto, Bosh earned his fantasy meal ticket primarily because of three things. In 2009-10, he dropped 24 points a game, added 10.8 boards and had excellent percentages (.516FG on 16.6 attempts and .797FT on 8.4 attempts). The other categories (blocks, three’s, assists, steals, TO) were all pretty stock standard for a PF/C, so let’s leave them alone for the moment.
Not the first option anymore, but still a solid fantasy player (Image from SLAM 8/25/08)
How will these numbers move in Miami? Two levels here, easy to predict and hard to predict. Easy first. The percentages are safe. Unless he forgets how to hit 18 foot jumpers and free throws, and if he did, Dwyane Wade would not be a happy camper, then these numbers are if anything going to rise. When you have Wade and James giving you the ball, hogging all the attention from the defense, it’s a safe bet to think that FG% will nudge up by 2-3%. Locked it. Furthermore, opposing teams are going to be in all sorts of foul trouble from the 2nd quarter onwards vs. the Heat, especially big men who get tangled up when the driving to the hoop party really begins. That means, that while the opportunity to create freebies on shots will decrease personally for Bosh presuming he gets a reduced number of looks, it will be easier to score and opportunities will come in non-shooting situations. Thus, those 8.4 attempts might fall a tad, but nothing to be worried about (in the 7-8 range).
To the problems. Rebounds. 10.8 is a lot of boards. The Raptors played a pretty up tempo basketball style, with lots of opportunities to score. The Heat were slowly last season in possessions per game, but should get faster this year. That said, Wade and James are both high rebounding players and the addition of Big Z is not going to help matters either. In Toronto, Bosh only had Andrea Bargnani to grab a pathetic 6 boards a game. Despite only starting in 6 of his 63 games last season, Z still managed 5.4 boards per game. So when we take into account these factors, it is more than reasonable to think that Bosh might only average between 7.5 and 8.5 boards a game, which is a pretty substantial hit and puts him on a level with a whole bunch of pretty average big men such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden (who only needed 23 mins/g to achieve it). If your chasing quality boards in the second round, I would look past Bosh and perhaps at David Lee or Gerald Wallace.
For me, scoring is much more a mystery. 16.6 field goal attempts per game seems like a lot. But given the context of the Raptors, it really isn’t. There wasn’t another player chucking up that many and for a dominant offensive big man, it’s a little disappointing. At Miami, Bosh will be the only inside presence, much like at the Raptors, but he prefers those dinky jump shots which he is very good at. It really depends how teams decide to play the Heat. With double teams, Bosh will get more looks. However he is going to be the third option on this team, no if’s or butt’s about it. 13 attempts per game, at a slightly higher percentage should still create 20+ per night and I think this will happen. The Heat will be lucky to get 30 points from players apart from their Big Three (Chalmers, Miller, Z, Jones, Haslem, Arroyo etc), so even if Wade and James drop 25 each, Bosh still needs to play his role, which will be substantial.
Finally, I think that Bosh will be the one to stay on the floor a little bit longer than others when games are over or in junk time. There is nothing scientific behind this, just a feeling. Bosh is clearly a good enough player to carry teams for stretches, as we saw in Toronto, so this will happen in Miami. Why not make that time to rest Wade and James? It makes sense and even if it’s just for 2-3 minutes per night averaged out over the season, that’s good for a bump in stats.
In the end, I think we are looking at approximately this: 21 points, 52.5% and 80.5%, 7.9 boards, with the other standards thrown in (2.9 assists, 1+ block and less than 2.5 turnovers). If you like your big men efficient, lean and mean, that’s good enough for the second round in my books. If you prefer players who dominate multiple categories but give up in others (Howard for example), then you will probably not be a fan this season.
And Toronto fans? You still have the former number one pick, the Italian Stallion himself, Andrea “Man On Campus” Bargnani.
Things are looking up for the Raptors
Where rankings are made
While most fantasy basketball enthusiasts are busy watching their baseball team or having a real life in the summertime, other, more evil hearted people, are conspiring against your team already. 3 months before the season has even nearly begun. Who are these people? Well, if something is wrong with sports, together with the blogosphere having disregard for it, it is only one of two things… Rugby League or ESPN. And since Rugby League should never be mentioned again, we’ll stick with ESPN.
Often those at the top are victim of tall poppy syndrome. See Rudd, Kevin. And often those emotions are completely unwarrented. However I feel safe in saying after ESPN’s last couple of big basketball stories (The Decision, the production of the NBA Finals), that in this case they completely deserve it. But why are they trying to destroy your fantasy team in mid-summer? I don’t know. The proof is here though. The ESPN Fantasy Basketball top 150 rankings. But Brian McKitsh is so cute? But ESPN is the only thing I use when I do my draft prep? Be damned people.
Here are but three issues with the above list (the July 19 Version).
1) There is no preface whatsoever about what type of rankings these area. Roto? H2H? 9 cats? No trade? Lots of trades? Incompetent owners? By having a quick glance, I can nearly deduct that it’s a Head to Head league because Dwight Howard is at number 7 and there is no asterisk near his name. You might casually say, this isn’t a big deal. But this is a MASSIVE deal. ESPN and Yahoo are the two biggest fantasy sites on the net. Nearly all beginners would be getting 95% of their advice from these sites and lists just like this. For Fantasy Basketball to ever grow into a real rival to the MLB or NFL, this sort of stuff has to be sorted out. If, into week three, you see that Dwight Howard is actually going to bust your balls in your newly minted Roto league and he was your first pick, how are you going to feel? Ask Tom Brady owners from two seasons ago. Some people will just have fun regardless, but some will not. They will not come back. They will not play again. It’s pretty simple in my books. A nice two sentence preface about what the list actually represents would go a long way in fantasy basketball circles.
2) Rajon Rondo (#22) and Chris Bosh (#23) have swapped spots since the last update (date unknown but after the Decision). Why did this occur? None of the 21 players above the list swapped places. No-one fell. No-one rose. However Rondo was deemed to have inched ahead of Bosh. Because of… His rad shoes? Well, maybe. But we can’t be sure as there is no explanation for this. I understand the need to get stuff out quickly, meet deadlines and keep things concise so people will read them, but what I don’t understand is how this list works and why people move up and down, because there is no commentary alongside it. And ESPN fantasy basketball analysis can be VERY good, when it takes the time and get’s it right.
3) Risk Aversion in the highest form. The two standouts for me here are Troy Murphy (#43) and Greg Oden (#150). Murphy might not be an amazing player. He is slow, doesn’t really contribute to winning actual basketball games and finds defending is sometimes just too hard. However, he is money in fantasy basketball. M-O-N-E-Y. I know people drop off after awhile, but this a dude who finished top 15 ranked (Yahoo Average Rankings) over the past two seasons and is in a CONTRACT year. C’mon people. 43? Wedged in between Joakim Noah and Baron Davis? B-Diddy??? It makes my blood boil. If you want the best big man to hit open three pointers and grab 10+ boards per game, look no further. The best small ball center in the league. Bar none.
This is where people might start losing me. Greg Oden has killed owners in the past. In fact, anyone who has ever drafted him, has been hurt eventually by his inability to stay on the court. But hear me out. Despite averaging 4.0 fouls per 22 minutes last season, listen to these November numbers. 12.9 points, 64% FG, 7.8 boards, 2.1 blocks AND he doesn’t kill your FT% (66.6% on a low 3.5 attempts for career). OK, so he is no Pau Gasol. True. But this kid (and he is still a kid) is on schedule for 5v5 practice in september and full ability by training camp. Yes, he has been injured. But you know what? So was Andrew Bogut for 4 seasons and now he is ranked #29. Greg Oden has disappointed in the past. But this is a guy who is built to play NBA basketball. He is deft on his feet, swift for a 7 footer and can just be beastly on the defensive end. Don’t reach for him in the 5th round, but the 10th round isn’t out of the question.
This is not meant to sound too harsh on ESPN. They have standards, editors and all sorts of crap I don’t understand. They also have a brand. However I think, despite the fact it’s only a game, as the gorilla in the room, there should be some more explanation around this type of stuff. These lists set the tone for everyone else. Bloggers read them and slowly turn conservative. Beginners read them and might never come back. From here, other lists are dreamed up and populated.
That’s enough ranting. I was planning on something much more positive, but that’ll have to wait until next time (no more stumbling across ESPN in the future).
In the meantime, links!
FantasyHoopster is back at it, as he couldn’t resist the urge to blog in the summertime. Nice. But please note, I do not condone any talk of Anthony Lin after last summer’s Anthony Randolph debacle.
GMTR are working their way through the NBA teams already. And with zingers like this, “At this point, if you’re interested in getting Ford for your pick-up team, Larry Bird wants to speak with you.”, how could you resist? I don’t wanna sound like a LeBron groupie, but Nels and Patrick really set the standard, even in mid-july.
I’ve only just been introduced to Daniel Eade on Twitter, and I don’t agree with much he has to say about LBJ, but it’s an interesting perspective regardless.
A super piece from FBasketballBlog on some myths and truths about fantasy basketball. He’s on the money with the majority of the strategies as well.
Until next time.
