Two Man Draft – Round Two

Now that Jason over at fBasketballBlog has kicked off our two man draft, I’ll be tagging in and jumping to the second round. The idea here is not to make a simple list of players from 1 through to 156 (12 teams, 13 picks) but to try to think like owners and create teams which would be viable in the cut throat world of fantasy hoops. Some teams will be ‘all rounders’, while others will end up specializing in certain categories.

Shawn Kemp. No, he doesn't make an appearance in this draft, but I wish he did.

Before we begin, let it be known I have a bias against point guards and this is purely H2H stuff.

13. Steve Nash: While I dislike point guards, when you take David Lee and his lack of blocks, you don’t have much of a choice. Nash is the best left on the board. He is a perfect fit in the Suns system, and even without Amar’e on the pick ‘n roll, he will get his numbers. Mostly this is for assists but I see Nash taking a total leadership role this year which includes a higher scoring load, helping out points and threes. The Lee/Nash one-two hit puts this team in a great place to compete across all categories except blocks. With such a solid foundation, specialist players can be picked up later on to fill gaps.

14. Dwight Howard: You’ll be lucky to pick Howard up here in most leagues, but if you have the chance, you should take it. D12 rocks the entire package at the Center spot. Last year, he led the league with 13.2 boards and 2.8 blocks per game. Everyone knows about his deficiencies but with Gerald Wallace as the other pick, it’s time to start forgetting about free throws. Remember, there are still 8 other categories. Blocks are the hardest numbers to find in fantasy ball, but this team has already chalked up a significant advantage there. The underrated fact about Howard? He has only missed 3 games in the last 3 seasons. That’s fantasy gold.

15. Amar’e Stoudemire: New York basketball was built for Amar’e. In the form of Steve Nash, he has lost his Robin, but this Knicks team is begging for him. As I type, he is in Israel getting his Hebrew on. With Gallo playing the three man, AntRand sitting in the middle and Raymond Felton (a very misunderstood point guard) feeding him the ball, I’m excited for STAT this season. This fantasy team already has Dwyane Wade, and adding Amar’e creates that size advantage, building on Wade’s above average blocks for his position. For a big man who can give you 20/10 production, he doesn’t hurt you anywhere (2.6 turnovers, 77% FT in 09/10). He is definitely over his injury concerns after playing all 82 games last season.

16. Carmelo Anthony: Stephen Curry can do it all, so Melo is the perfect round two player who might not be much of an all round type of player, but knows how to make an impact in specific categories. Melo was a bonafide MVP candidate last season before Christmas. He is the purest scorer in the game, dropping a career high 28 points per game last season. His main strength is FT% (83% on 8.9 attempts). While some scorers struggle when their teams are slumping, Anthony is clutch when playing iso and lives for the big moments. Even if the Nuggets are up and down, like the end of last season, Anthony was still a staple for many fantasy champions. Curry and Anthony together allows this team to focus on big stats down the line.

17. Brook Lopez: The good things – Has never missed a game. Shoots 81% from the free throw line as a Center. Managed nearly 19 points per game despite the Nets only winning 12 games in 2009-10. The not so good – On a team full of nobodies, can only manage 13 shots per game. Blocked less shots in his second season despite playing 6 minutes more per game. Shot less than 50% from the field last season. This season is his for the taking, with a new coach and some good new teammates who will contribute to wins but won’t dominate the stats. In fantasy terms, that’s delicious. BroLo should be a 20/10 guy this season and because of his efficiency with the freebies, he is a rare type of player. Good centers are the hardest players to get. D-Will and Lopez are not going to take over the world this season, but you don’t win fantasy with your first two picks and this is a great start.

18. Rajon Rondo: When I first did this, Rondo was about 5 spots lower. But then I thought about it. What happens when you throw three old dudes together, with a sole focus on the playoffs, surround them by mid level talent and stop gaps (Hello Jermaine O’Neal) and try to keep it all together with an alien? The alien dominates. The only reason Rondo is not a top tier PG is his inability to hit free throws and he lack of three’s. However in the playoff’s last season, Rondo hit 37.5% from distance. I wouldn’t expect him to turn all Ray Allen on owners, but don’t be surprised when he has 2-3 per week. Who knows about his FT% though, that’s just rubbish. But as one of the highest rebounding point guards (4.4 per game) and near league leading thief (2.3 per game), he is a highly valued guard. Plus, he still has upside as the rest of his team will continue to fall off as they age. Perfect fit for Gasol if you follow the point guard/power forward strategy. Always remember, point guards who can’t shoot three’s is not the end of the world as so many experts think as three’s is one of the easiest categories to pick up in the latter rounds and on the waiver wire.

19. Josh Smith: A lot of players don’t like Josh Smith. But last season he turned a significant corner. Not only did he play 81 games, but he stopped taking three pointers. This was his biggest weakness and as a result, his FG% was over 50 last season. He does the dirty work (1.6 steals, 2.1 blocks) which many others don’t, but doesn’t suffer in the more voluminous categories (15.7 points, 8.7 boards). He is consistently bad at free throws, but with Danny Granger on board, there should be no issues here. Smith is the perfect second round option at this stage as he helps out nearly everywhere for a SF/PF. As a bonus, he had a career high 4.2 assists per game last season.

20. Al Jefferson: This is probably the first real reach. Jefferson is an unknown quantity at this point in time. He disappointed oh so many owners last season and I would be surprised to see him at this position in most drafts. But that unknown factor is also a bucket load of potential upside. In his first two seasons at the T’Wolves, he averaged 20+/10+ with blocks, steals and a healthy FT% to boot. The Jazz places him with one of the best point guards in the league which he has never experienced before, and while he will still be undersized, he is the best Center left on the board. Building on Bryant’s foundation for this team, Jefferson is a legitimate first tier center when healthy, which is hopefully all season.

21. Jason Kidd: I’m a bit wary of drafting two team-mates 1st and 2nd, but Kidd doesn’t really know how to stop. While there are reporters out of Dallas that he will be utilised less this season than those past, I’ll have to see it to believe it. He actually slightly increased his playing time and points per game last season. At 37, that’s impressive. He won’t score a ton, but that’s why Dirk is there. What he will do, hit the deep ball, dish out dimes, board and steal, are perfect for this spot. The more I think about it, the more these two tick every box when combined.

22. Chris Bosh: I’ve already written about Bosh and his potential here. You should be looking at 21/8 with a bunch of efficiency which I believe justifies this spot. He is a solid PF/C, missing only blocks as a facet of his game. Chris Paul and Chris Bosh is text book point guard/power forward strategy. Easy to consolidate around in future rounds and very hard to match up against. While quite conservative (and some would say boring), it is virtually risk free if injuries do not present.

23. Brandon Roy: This is first round talent stuck in a fragile body which scares off most owners. While I took him at 13 last year, probably a tad too soon, this year he is in free fall. But ask yourself what has changed? No new team-mates. No change in coach. This season’s Portland team is very similar to last years and that means Roy is a fantasy sneak if you can stomach the risk involved with the injury factor. With LBJ doing everything known to man on a basketball court, Roy will complement and extend this across nearly all categories. He is Kobe-light, but without the guarantee of 82 games.

24. Tyreke Evans: Durant is a hard pick to match up with, but if you go first, you get the benefit of double dipping at the 24/25 spot. So I’ve done the easy thing and picked the best available player. I’ll leave it up to Jason to really complement these two players with a third awesome option. I’ve seen predictions for Evans as high as 12 (!) but I still think he has a long way to go fantasy-wise. He might even fall back a step or two this season. DeMarcus Counsins will take some offense, as will the development of other young players on the roster, such as Omri Casspi. I don’t doubt Evan’s talent, just that with a roster which is getting pretty crowded, it looks like he will have to share the ball move this season. That said, great value at #24 and will fit like a glove with KD to cover all the bases.

So, to finish up. Durant/Evans, LBJ/Roy, CP3/CB4, Dirk/Kidd, Kobe/Jefferson, Granger/J Smoove, Gasol/Rondo, D-Will/Lopez, S Curry/Melo, Wade/Amar’e, Wallace/Howard and Nash/David Lee.

Over to you Jason…

The Way It Had To End

Today I lost my fantasy final due to three factors. Below I rank them. But first, a quick recap. I had the number four pick in the draft and took Kevin Durant. Yeah, I know. I’m just that good. But more seriously, I lost by 18 points and 5 three pointers. Pretty devastating.

1) Stephen Curry.

How was I to know this little punk ass kid would destroy everything that was good in the world? For those of you who believe rookies are not worthy of fantasy basketball drafts (and looking ahead to Evan Turner and John Wall), here are Curry’s April stats (last 8 games). 26.4 points, 6.4 boards, 8.1 assists, 2.6 steals, 3.1 triples, 46.9% from the field, 89.5% from the stripe. OK, he only blocks 0.4 shots per game and turns the ball over 3.1 times per. But. BUT. Those stats rank him as the number one player in the game over that period. Yeah, I said it. Number one.

I was involved in an interesting argument this afternoon in my fantasy league chatter as to where he would fall in next year’s draft (because, you know, 5 minutes before the last games end, it’s time to start thinking about that stuff). I nearly fell out of my chair when people seriously thought he would be available at the end of the second round. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? This guy is a stud and unless Don Nelson gets fired or hit by a bus, 2010-11 is the Stephen Curry coming out party. When you can hit 26 foot pull up transition three pointers with finesse similar to the way Eddie House wears his jewerly on the bench, then things are heading in the right direction.

Needless to say, in my final, Curry dropped 167 points, 19 threes, 39 boards, 43 assists, had 17 steals, hit every second shot and nailed 93.8% of his free throws. Thanks for nothing Stephen. I’ll be seeing you in the FIRST round next year.

2) Lamar Odom is a liability.

Yeah, that’s right. I said it. Here is my prediction for the NBA Finals. The Cavs vs. some team not the Lakers. That’s about as technical as I get. Fun facts about LO this season. He attempted 182 three pointers, good for over 2 per game. Success rate? 31.9%. Yuck. Since he replaced Andrew Bynum in the starting line up on March 21, the Lakers are 6-7 with losses to teams including the Clippers and the Hornets. Admitedly, today’s loss against the Clippers saw some starters sitting. But here is a question, shouldn’t your bench and some starters be able to beat the Clippers if you want to go anywhere in the playoffs? Answer: No.

No-one should fall for the Lakers trap next year in fantasy drafts. This is where my rant really gets going. I have a formula which I just thought up. Stick with me. Kobe Bryant is a twat. But he is also surpremely talented. This year, he put up second round numbers because… well… he has played for 14 seasons now. Every season he keeps playing, he is going to drop a draft round. Facts to back this up? None. YET. But watch his FG% slip. Watch his FT attempts slide. Watch his assist:turnover ratio climb. I don’t care how many buzzer beaters you make. I’m not taking him before 19 next year and by then he’ll be long gone.

3) Brandon Roy is a poor man’s… Monta freakin’ Ellis??

Let’s compare:

Roy: 65 games, 21.5 points, 4.4 boards, 4.7 assists, .473, .780, 1.1 triples, 0.9 steals, 2 turnovers
Ellis: 64 games, 25.5 points, 4.0 boards, 5.3 assists, .449, .753, 1.2 triples, 2.2 steals, 3.8 turnovers

OK. There are a few differences (TOs, steals, percentages are little off) but it’s close enough. Close enough to say that Roy wasn’t even close to Ellis this season.

Roy finished up the season ranked 49 in averages and 66 in total. Umm, yuck? I know he was injured throughout the season. I know he had not one, but two Centers, go down. I know he had a new teammate who apparently can still play a bit. But when I drafted him at number 13 (big deep breath), I really expected some sort of return on my investment. This is what I got. I got Monta Ellis, but worse. How does this even make sense? Why am I still thinking about Stephen Curry?

Fantasy is over for another year. And now the fun begins. Thinking about next season…

Congrats to Mexican Landslides in my league who pipped me at the post. Was a pretty stellar rookie season. Don’t expect the free pass next year =)

Thanks to GMTR who organised my other league where, despite a strong finish, I ended up 10th thanks to a combination of Marc Gasol getting the gimps and a general sense of apathy after I missed the top-6 playoffs.

And to everyone else. Here is my top 12 baring obvious big changes which will cause mock draft lists to change 1652 times between now and late October when the next season starts.

Durant, LeBron, CP3, Wade, Curry, Dirk, Granger, Howard, Lopez, D-Will, Bosh, Wallace

Awards Watch. Fantasy Hoopster makes some noise. As always, vote in his polls (Tyrus Thomas and Kevin Durant in case you didn’t know by now). I read his stuff whenever it comes out, solid analysis all season long. Hope it continues in 2010-11!

I looked for other links but came up empty. I’m sure there will be some more tomorrow. Or maybe that’s it for the year.