Efficient Improvement FTW

Field Goal % is the most underrated category from my little understanding of fantasy basketball. Last night when I was up doing mock drafts I noticed this most in the middle of the 7th round when Channing Frye, Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza all went in a row. I was gobsmacked. C’mon people, pay some attention. You will often hear about the 10 from 13 effort by random player X but what you never hear are the constant 6 from 14 efforts which slowly destroy your team week after week (*cough* Caron Bulter)

This season there have been some changes to players who normally would be a FG% black hole. I’ve got my take below, including some players who might be regressing this season as well.

Winners

Aaron Brooks: AB already had a massive jump in field goal percentage last season (up 2.8%) to 43.2%. But that is still super low and with 16.2 attempts per game, downright nasty for your teams efficiency. This season, Yao Ming is back in the middle. Kevin Martin is around for a full season. Brooks doesn’t have to be THE guy anymore or carry a team for long stretches. He can get it done when required, have more open looks from deep and won’t have to force shots up that aren’t there. His attempts per game might take a hit, but it is sure to do wonders for his efficiency. Another big jump (45%+) is a real possibility.

Hedo Turkoglu: The Turkish Jordan is renowned for shooting brick after brick, which he can do every night. In Toronto last season, he was a terrible 41% on 9.1 attempts per game. Basically, he was not really feeling it in Canada and should be very happy to return to south of the border. With Nash running the team still, Hedo will have a role. Unlike Brooks, he doesn’t have the talent surrounding him to make his life easier yet in my eyes, you just can’t be that bad again. He is never going to turn into Nene yet you can expect an improvement to about 43-4% on 12-13 attempts per night.

Brandon Jennings: Ugh. That is the one word to describe his season in terms of efficiency last season. The kid can score (55 points never went astray). But 37% on nearly 15 shots per game is an absolute category killer in it’s own right. You would need Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard just to balance it out to something respectable. This one falls into the Turkoglu category in that this will never happen again. The Bucks have got new talent (Maggette, Gooden) who can score when given the opportunity. Last season it was just Jennings and Bogut. This season there is the added experience factor plus others to help out. He’s still going to shoot poorly relative to other point guards however it will be a lot less worse than last go around. 42% on 16 attempts.

Eric Gordon: Gordon already has a +45% career field goal percentage over 140 games. Impressive for a shooting guard playing with the Clippers. He has never been a go to option but has always been there to gather points at a pretty decent clip (about 16 per game). Due to his injury last year, we never saw that sophomore jump which is so common in the league. He was in and out of the team and playing hurt. The best indicator is that his confidence was way down (a 6% drop in FT% demonstrates this easily). His experience on Team USA and his more prominent role on the team will see his scoring increase alongside a better rate. I am thinking a typical Ray Allen season of about 18 points, 46-47% shooting and 2+ threes made. You could do a lot worse at the shooting guard spot.

O.J Mayo: Here are some facts about O.J Mayo. He has not missed a game in the NBA. Despite playing a reduced role on his team in his second season, his stats did not decrease. His FG% jumped 2 points last season to 45.8% despite not attempting any additional threes. This things all point to a marque season for the guard out of USC. As a young player, his additional experience will start to gather, he has shown he can co-exist with Rudy Gay on the floor. I’m betting Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol don’t prove to have the same combined season they did last year. 45.8 is already a pretty high figure but I think Mayo can touch 47% this season on a similar number of shots as last year, making him one of the most efficient shooting guards around. It’s such a pity he doesn’t have PG eligibility this season for all those people out there who love to punt assists (try Jamal Crawford instead)

Losers (just quickly)

Everyone here loses because of a teammate and the subsequent change in team environment.

Mo Williams will be asked to perform heavy minutes this season with an extremely heavy workload. No LeBron means more defensive pressure and less open looks, camping out in the corner for three. It’s just going to be nasty efficiency wise but he should make up for it with other increases. I also think the same thing will happen to Deron Williams. Sure, he is still a first round pick, but you can’t under-estimate the bond him and Carlos Boozer had on the pick n’ roll. Al Jefferson is a completely different player who will take a lot of getting used to and one area this will affect is his FG%. Channing Frye plays a position which demands a low FG%. The Suns motley collection of forwards (Hedo, Hakim Warrick, Josh Childress) aren’t going to get the job done like Amar’e could. Nash needs people to give the ball to but Frye is going to see so much pressure rushing at him whenever he jacks a long ball, it will take it’s toll. Finally, Andrea Bargnani is in the same position. Except 1000 times worse. Chris Bosh might be underrated this season in fantasy but he was the heart and soul of that offense. A lot of people are talking up Bargnani this year but please factor in the inevitable drop off in FG% which results in the added pressue to be the number one option, with a total lack on inside game and inability to draw fouls. It’s going to be long ball after long ball and it’s not going to be pretty most nights.

Two Man Draft – Round 6

I’m loving this. Even if I stuff everything up, it’s only half my fault. Two men mock drafts, the way of the future. In Round 5, Jason really started to lay some solid direction with a couple of teams. I’ll see what I can do to erase that and make him earn his hard earned blogosphere dollars. If you have just popped in, here is Round 1 and you can follow the links for the rest. Also, if you have been waiting, sorry about the delay. Holidays called.

Further, let me have some pre-emptive defense. Round 6 is where it actually gets hard. It’s like trying to score 100 points when you run the entire offensive through Ron Artest. Let’s kick it off.

61. Brandon Jennings (D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green): A point guard was  a necessity here as you can’t build a big man team on the back of David Lee and Carlos Boozer. Despite the inevitable rookie slide into oblivion last season, Jennings still averaged over 15 points per and nearly 6 assists. More help has arrived at the Bucks this year but that just means good things for his passing game. It is a pure passing game as well, so that transition to facilitator shouldn’t be an issue. In fact, Jennings could be a massive steal at this spot. Talking of steals, he could threaten 2+ per game as he defense gets better against better teams. There were two occasions when he had a streak of at least 1 steal over 8 games. Then again, he could implode. 37.1% from the field is nothing to rave about. But this just means more three’s in my book. He will be underrated as people reach for other, unproven guards such as John Wall and Evan Turner. I just don’t understand how you can walk past a guy who calls himself Young Money.

This could be all yours (High TOs inclusive). What fantasy owner could refuse?

62. John Wall (G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche): I know I just managed to pre-slag myself about two sentences ago when I said people will reach for unproven rookies. Sue me. This team is built upon the very solid PG/PF strategy, but kind of upgraded because of the addition of Howard. Sure, you are throwing away ft% with this pick (could’ve tried to save it when a Yao Ming crapshot) but Wall is a good fit here. His guaranteed terrible FG% will be offset by the gluttony of bigs. The three’s will help out as it was lacking to date. The street-cred has just jumped through the roof (you know Gerald Wallace ain’t getting it done after the last dunk contest). Plus, if the owner is taking Blatche and Manu, they like to live on the edge a little already. I’m big on the Wizards letting Wall play 35+ minutes a night for at least 30-40 games. He will hit a wall (oh fun times) but by then you will have traded him to some chump who thinks they are onto a bargain. Wait for that 35+ point, 13+ assist game and remember, his value will never be higher. Rookies are the easiest players to do this with as they attract serious attention on the web and owners go crazy for headlines. Still a good fit for this team regardless.

63. LaMarcus Aldridge (D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph): A lot of people would question this pick. But something stood out to me as I was pouring over his stats. He has hit 7.4 field goals per season for the past 3 seasons. I don’t know why this is important, but I feel it is. Furthermore, we’re set for three’s so LaMarcus and his lack thereof doesn’t hurt. He is a lock for 18/8 every night at about 50% from the field. This team is really starting to evolve into a beast but still with room to play going a bit smaller with some late picks. I also think that is Aldridge is ever going to make a fantasy leap, this is his year. If you look closely, his TO’s have been falling every season while his assists rise (2.1:1.3 last year). These things might not matter to your average lay fantasy man, but when you are building an elite team which can mix it with the big boys, it all counts. Wade and Davis will rack up 14+ assists a night between them, but if Amar’e/Bargs/AntRand and LaMarcus can add another 10, it will make a difference (and yes, I did just pencil Randolph in for 3+ per night thank you for asking).  Sure it needs some work, but the gambler not so deep within me loves this team.

64. Kevin Garnett (S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris): Looking at this team, I really felt that insurance was a must with Duncan and Bogut waiting to brake some bone I’ve never heard of. And do you know why this pick reflects the worst of the NBA? Because the other options were Andrew Bynum or Yao Ming. This KG is not the KG of old to be sure. But who do you want in your corner when the going gets tough? This bad mofo. Still good for 14/7/2.5 with 2+ combo steal/block, Garnett is the angriest, bad mouthed asshole in the game. I like him in team because of his every improving FG% and ability to add boards without further eroding FT%. The only reason he is still alive is to play defense (and hate on Baby Davis) and with Curry and Melo, this team needs anything but scoring. I’m not as pumped as he is for this team (he would be pumped even if he was traded to the LA Sparks) but I don’t think they’ll be the worst bunch of players ever assembled as long as David Kahn is still managing a team come October.

65. Blake Griffin (D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu): I don’t understand how a rookie can go backwards in fantasy ranking when he hasn’t even played a game and the team he plays for has not moved forward. But that is the case with Griffin. From a very quick scan it seems he is predicted to be a 80-ish pick. Well, screw you Mr Well Informed. Am I concerned about drafting potential? No. Is this owner in a solid position at about the half way mark? Heck yes. Jason gave this group of players an A- before my pick. I’ll go out on a limb and say it I just improved it. Griffin is going to be a STUD. He will be the most athletic rookie in the league this season despite his knee. He will give John Wall a thumping in the ROY (early prediction). He will eat other Clippers for breakfast if they don’t do what he says and he should be saying “give me the ball”. This squad might be lite on guards, but the more I think about it, the more I see Turk inserting himself into the middle of the Suns offense (sorry Steve Nash and that #13 pick). The more I see a thunderstorm or points, boards and extras. Hot damn. Blake Griffin. I’m excited and it’s 10.18pm on a Tuesday night in the first week of August. 16/9 with 1.5 blocks and minimum 2 breathtaking ESPN ‘plays of the week’ highlights where you can turn to your friend and say “that’s why I drafted him at 65″.

66. O.J. Mayo (P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin): Some people will get all up in your face when you take Mayo and point out little ‘facts’ like his scoring went down while his minutes went up in his second season, or that his playing time decreased despite the fact Mike Conley is a chump. Here are some words for that person. Sit down son. Mayo is in a delicately poised position. He is stuck in a shitty rotation. Can work effectively when given the chance, but somehow Z-Bo managed not to stuff it up and eats up a lot of possession. But there is hidden benefit in this as well. He is going to become super efficient. While some people don’t get excited for that, I get giddy. 2+ three’s per game on 47% FG? You won’t find that many places, especially when you put it next to 3+ assists, <2 TOs and nearly 4+ boards. This is what dreams are made of from the shooting guard spot. Forget Ray Allen (well don’t, because he is visiting the station shortly), Mayo is the best available option here. One can only hope Mike Conley disappears before training camp and this becomes a legit 5th round pick.

67. Jamal Crawford (D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson): I always got J-Rich and Crawford mixed up, so it is fitting that they are bundled next to each other. Did I mention how this team just became nigh unbeatable? Oh. Focus. This is no traditional team. Granger/Smith/Nene are all multi-cat specials which nearly rules out any type of small ball. But Rose brings it back from the edge, while J-Rich consolidates. The reason I like Crawford and not some like Eric Gordon is that Crawford plays a lot of PG and that’s worth something. He is not going to average 5+ assists per game but unlike most 2 guards, he will give you something to build on (a lot like O.J Mayo). Undoubtedly the best thing about his move to the ATL has been his uptick in FG% while no negative effect on distance shooting. He is not going to set the world on fire this season, but he doesn’t have to either. He adds nice points to the mix. While steals might be tough to win every week with this group, there is a real shot at each of the other categories.

68. Luis Scola (K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton): I didn’t want to pick Scola. I always thought he was like Carlos Boozer but without the fun. However you can’t argue with 16/8 at this spot with excellent FG%. In fact, it isn’t available in anyone else except some serious accompanying risk. Jefferson and Gasol give this team it’s grunt while Kobe holds everything else together (LOVE the Felton pick btw). Scola doesn’t really put anything over the top, instead trying to extend what good is already there. There is the risk of Yao’s return but considering I haven’t even thought about Mr Ming yet means this owner doesn’t think he is going to be much of an impact. In fact, even if he does stay, it only attracts the double team which opens it up for Scola to work his magic. Nothing terribly exciting going on here except a mix of quality fantasy players who should produce consistently.

69. Michael Beasley (D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks): This is where you come for excitement. Be-Easy didn’t make many friends for himself down on South Beach. Luckily the Wolves will take anyone they can put their filthy little hands on these days, so the former #2 pick takes his talents to the cold of Minnesota. And I for one am excited. It’s hardly he was given much of a chance at the Heat. He played only 29 minutes per game last season despite being the clear 2nd best option. Dwyane Wade considered him a ‘too hard’ case and Beasley had to do everything to fit into Wade’s plans. Sorry for going against the grain, but you don’t draft a number two pick and say “go do your thing”. The Heat never once tried to structure any type of play around Beasley. I’ve only ever seen 7 NBA games live, but on Christmas Day 2009, Beasley performed the best basketball move I’ve ever seen (a fake from the baseline, drive and dunk which had the Knicks crowd gasping). The kid has talent. Oodles of it and in Minny, he is going to shine. I give him 16/7, 2+ blocks/steals and a brand new attitude on life. Oh and he fits in fine here. Wave goodbye to blocks, but everything else is looking tasty.

70. Chris Kaman (C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams): Instead of team 3, this team shall now be known as just ‘Chris’. Kaman would’ve gone earlier if Griffin wasn’t around, but he is. So don’t expect 18 and 9 every night. Maybe he slips back into a more defensive, Marcus Camby-type role (see 2007-08). Not sure. To tell you the truth, this team needed a big man and I didn’t want to pick Roy Hibbert. Pretty simple. He was the best left on the board and while he doesn’t excite me in the slightest, I think it’ll work out fine. Mo Williams will do enough exciting for the two of them.

71. Luol Deng (L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love) This is where things get juicy. If you somehow end up with a collection of vastly superior players to everyone else -exactly what I am classifying this team as- you go and grab the best available player on the board. Not according to position, but overall. Luol Deng might not be a superstar, he might have taken a hit in value thanks to C-Booz but he can still ball. Last season I predicted he would be a 20 and 8 player. He disappointed me with rather pedestrian 17.6 points and 7.3 boards per game and still missed 12 games. This season, he probably won’t even manage that. Yet he will go near to being a 1-1-1 player and doesn’t kill you with his TOs or percentages. As Biggie Smalls says, it’s all good baby baby.

72. Jason Terry (K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby): I feel that I could have picked Aaron Gray here and this team would still manage to win the majority of it’s games. It’s almost unfair on paper. Horford/Camby are the perfect big men to surround Durant/Evans while Pierce mops up. Terry has taken a bit of a hit in recent seasons, but he is still one of the best threats from deep around and he gives plenty of dimes to shore up a potential weakness here. Steals? Tick. FT%? Tick. And while his FG% is in free fall, the rest of the team should more than make up for that.

Well, that wraps up Round 6. Make sure you hit up fBasketballBlog soon to continue this epic, now August journey. To quickly re-cap (and I leave Jason for the grades as I would just be giving out a whole bunch of A’s)

Team 1: K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry
Team 2: L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng
Team 3: C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams, C. Kaman
Team 4: D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley
Team 5: K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola
Team 6: D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford
Team 7: P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J Mayo
Team 8: D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin
Team 9: S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett
Team 10: D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge
Team 11: G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall
Team 12: D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B Jennings

Until Round 8…

Playoffs 2010, Fantasy 2011?

What the NBA playoffs are telling us about future fantasy options.

Brandon Jennings is the real deal.

While some people might have their doubters about a young PG who shoots so much and lacks a proper haridresser, the reality is that the kid can get it done when required. In the Bucks first playoff game against a far superior Hawks team, Jennings had a game high 34 points, while shooting 4 three pointers and 56% from the field. During the last season his field goal shooting was a serious liability but nearly all second year guards make a leap in this regard (see Westbrook, Russell and Mayo, O.J as this years prime examples). He also struggled to provided a consistent source of assists. There were only three against the Bucks, but with Salmons creating his own shot and Kurt Thomas starting at Center, this was always going to be the case. Next season should see more minutes, more effective choices and a lower assist:turnover ratio. There will be a house full of quality point guards next season in Fantasy but if you are after a solid middle round pick, Jennings is your guy. This type of game should become more commonplace as his career lengthens.

Kevin Garnett still has stock as a fantasy option.

It’s not high after the past two seasons being marred by injury, but he has said himself numerous times, he has the will to keep playing at that high level and expects to fully recover this off-season from the various ailments and bone spurs which have been bothering him. Now, if you’re a risk adverse fantasy player, you won’t be touching KG. On the other hand, 16 points, 9 boards, 60% from the field with a few steals and blocks thrown in is nothing to laugh up. I don’t want to be advocating the next 2011 version of Elton Brand, but when I’m looking for value in the early-middle rounds on draft day, I won’t be ignoring this former number one pick. As Doctor DRE would say, “don’t forget about me (KG)”.

Jermaine O’Neal will not shoot +50% from the field again. Ever.

If you haven’t had a chance to catch game one, have a sneak peak at the poor shooting and down right terrible decision making by JON. Unless he ends up in New York or Golden State, his days as a fantasy relevant Center are fading quickly. I’ll acknowledge he was playing against top tier defense, but Kendrick Perkins wasn’t even playing that well. O’Neal missed several 18 footers, missed opportunities around the rim and even air balled a put back offensive rebound. Yuck. It’s not a good sign when that kind of stuff has been your bread and butter for the majority of your career.

Paul Millsap is going to be a quality 2nd tier PF/C.

As Money Memo went down (and in my opinion, taking the Jazz with him) for the rest of the season, Millsap stepped in for 37 minutes. In that time, he had 15 points, 10 boards, 3 blocks and shot 7 from 13 from the field. He might not have the finesse under the hoop of Boozer, but he can block, which adds a whole other dimension. Fantasy watchers have been waiting for 2 solid seasons for the Jazz and Boozer to set Millsap free and if you want him in your team next year, you will have to act very quickly on draft day.

Chauncey Billups will never get old.

Well, that’s a lie. But it doesn’t seem like it at the moment. And for me, that’s a little bit of a concern. I know next season he will keep dropping three’s, dishing out assists and having a free throw percentage to die for, but I don’t know if he is early second round material anymore. He was sloppy with the ball against the Jazz (3 turnovers in 29 minutes). He will have Ty Lawson sitting behind him, willing his coach to play him more minutes. This is not to say Billups isn’t going to be a great player next season. He will be. BUt more in the getting pretty old, good dude to keep around the clubhouse, type role. HIs minutes will dip because they can. Even in this game, Lawson clocked in for 21 minutes. Not an insignificant amount. I hate even writing this about him because he seems like one of the best players to have on a team, but I am steering clear until the third round. The next group of uber PG’s (Rose, Curry) are already passed him.

Andrew Bynum is worth the risk.

Now, this one might be a non-starter with many people. I know many owners will have been burned by Bynum is the past two years and is probably near the top of many ‘do not draft’ lists, along with GIlbert Arenas and Elton Brand amongst others. However, Bynum is young. He is a stud. To top it off, he plays alongside another 7 footer. I know this first playoff performance was against an OKC team which lacks any kind of depth in the middle, but Bynum will see this a lot in the future. He had 13 points, 12 boards and 4 blocks. I see him putting up big numbers next year with Kobe demanding less of his teammates. The Lakers don’t have that much offensive fire power apart from Bryant and Gasol, so this will mean great things for the big fella. If you can stomach the injury risk, he is a handy middle round Center who could explode and mark his name on the map in fantasy 2010-11!

Some further reading:

Speaking of Point Guards

I share some (defintely not all) all these thoughts