Potential WOW possibilities for fantasy 2010-11
There are always surprises in any given NBA season. Who would’ve thought last season Gerald Wallace would actually play that many games? How about rookies who actually make an impact which wasn’t happening in the past? It’s a surprise because it wasn’t expected (duh) but there are some possibilities which you can dream about and try to visualize. The following are ranked from most probable to least probable in my eyes and should be taken with the appropriate grain(s) of salt. The levels are my attempt to categorize and anyone on this list will provide a little to a lot of risk but the reward if it comes off is delicious.
“Brett Favre deciding to keep playing”: You really won’t be that surprised in this happens because it probably will, only with a shit load of ESPN coverage attached to it. LeBron James could average a triple-double. It’ll be amazing if he does, but will anyone think after the fact that he didn’t have it in him? Lots to be angry about, a renewed motivation to succeed and national coverage up the wazoo. John Wall has shown it all summer and now well into the pre-season but people still have him pegged as a 5-6th rounder most places I look (did see him in the 20s for one draft). Is it impossible to imagine him finishing in the top 20 this season with averaged close to 17 and 9 along with all the gravy? Not really. After the likes of Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry last season, you know rookies have the ability to put up the big numbers, it’s just a matter of time. That doesn’t make it any less impressive.
“Michael Jordan keeping his mouth shut until Christmas”: This is a bit less likely to happen however as the owner of a franchise, you never know. Every time I see the name Derrick Rose in the off-season, it’s always accompanied by the words “improved jump shot”. Despite this happening about every September, there is nary a shred of evidence. But surely it’s going to arrive one day? You can’t shoot 1000 shots a day and regress. Well, maybe you can, but not if you have Rose’s ability. I’m not believing this until I see it, but if you wanna go out on a limb, this is the last facet of his game which will transform him into a fantasy monster. Anthony Randolph must be happy for a new home but he has some stiff competition for minutes in NYC which is a rarity. With Amar’e manning the power forward role and Turiaf/Mozgov chewing up minutes at Center, it’s going to be interesting to see where he fits in. He has a history of not living up to the hype but on sheer athleticism he will get his shot. You’ll need to grab him before #60 I reckon in most leagues despite him being a complete 50/50 at this stage. Elton Brand is not having the same about of hype. People got burned bad last year by punting on him and it seems like no-one is ready to trust him. With an average draft rank at the moment of 88.7 (yahoo leagues), it’s not like you have to reach for him. But with Coach Collins looking to beef up his role and re-establish him as a go to man, it’s not like it’s a totally crazy pick. He has history of performing and while he is over 30, I can see a lot of upside relative to that average pick.
“The 0-5 49ers clinch their division by New Years Eve”: It’s amazing to think that this is an actual possibility but that’s just how bad the NFC West is this year (sorry for non-NFL fans). This isn’t even the worst category! Well, you might cringe at some of the names coming up but I really think there is a 20-30% chance of them hitting the big time (again) and dominating for long stretches of time. Vince Carter is not the guy he used to be. He is wasting shots, turning the ball over and doesn’t know how to be the crunch time scorer Orlando really lacks. But that said, he can still put the ball in the hoop when he tries, can pass a ball and chip in all around the court. If his motivation is high, if Orlando have it’s groove on from the start of the season AND if they are as pissed off about the Heat as they tell everyone, then Carter is going to be a nice addition. People are really ripping on him (and deservedly so) and he is in free fall in most draft lists. But you don’t just lose talent, it just rests dormant until the right time. I’m not expecting this to work out well but if it does, Carter will be a prominent piece on many fantasy rosters which end up winning their respective comps. Some people don’t care about contract years. Silly fools. Andrei Kirilenko is coming into his contract year and needs to perform if he is going to get another payday. The dude can’t rely on his body anymore and he is never going to average those past insane 5+ combined STL/BLKs yet he still holds value. Obviously a lot depends on his body. I can see him slotting onto this Jazz team though like a glove. He doesn’t have the pressure to score a bunch of points (D-Will, Jefferson will be the main options) while still being surrounded by fairly weak defensive players (or below average rebounders). I say AK has that small window to make a big splash at some stage during the season, stringing together some pretty impressive weekly totals. Andrew Bynum is probably a top 3 player on ‘Do Not Draft’ lists at the moment. It’s painful to own him. Week after week, his potential is there in flashes but the amount of games he missed or plays very limited minutes kills owners every matchup. Yet there is this inescapable feeling I get in my bones about him. He is so young, so talented and so freakin’ tall. He is still the future of the Lakers if they want him to be. I don’t have a very high opinion of his body being able to stay connected in all the right places….. but. It’s always the but. The potential is basically limitless. Plus, you can grab him in Round 9-10 in most leagues these days because of his history. I’m not advocating, just dreaming.
“Landing on the Hudson River…. when it’s frozen”: This will not happen unless divine intervention occurs on the basketball court. Still, if it does happen, just sit back and admire because you won’t be able to do anything else. I have always had this crazy fantasy which sits at the back of my head whenever I see Dwight Howard mentioned. Secretly, he knows how to hit free throws. He is just waiting to unleash it because he is such a stand up bloke and doesn’t want to destroy morale in the league by being so utterly dominant. Now I know this is outlandish and, to be frank with myself, pretty stupid on many levels. But if I can teach my under 12 kids to shoot free throws, then one day, Howard is going to wake up and be able to hit free throws. He just has to. It’s like gravity or some shit. It doesn’t have to make sense but there are a whole bunch of laws which only really smart people understand. Getting a bit off topic, but the one thing which gives me the shits more than anything about professional basketball players is not being able to hit their free throws! There is no-one stopping you, no-one abusing you. Just you and the basket. If you have to take 5000 per day over the off-season, then you do it. One person who can hit free throws and is over 7 foot is Yao Ming. Now it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Yao didn’t play a game last year and has walking disaster written all over him this year (limiting minutes, no back to backs, lots of support around him). How much is too much to ask for.. 55 games? 65? 70+? I’m not sure but if I see him anywhere near a draft spot around round 9, I know I’ll be there is a hurry because if everything does go right (and I realise I’m living in a fantasy here), he is going to provide first round value. %’s, points, boards, blocks. There is not much better than that. Perhaps my optimism is blinding me as I walk down towards th sunset yet I care not for at the moment, as I am blissfully unaware of the dangers ahead. All I see is a 1.37% chance of an 82 game season which draws me in, closer and closer.
Swish! Fantasy NBA Shooting Guards and why they rock
What a decent Shooting Guard brings to your team
If you didn’t know, Ray Allen dropped 25 points, grabbed 5 boards and had 3 assists against a Heat team which was overrawed by the powah of the C’s. Ray Allen is a shooting guard. Some people don’t like shooting guards for fantasy purposes. Some people don’t like Ray Allen. Shame!
More seriously. If you hang out on fantasy forums, if you chat to your friends in your league and if you read strategies on ESPN, you are more than likely to know the ‘Point Guards and Power Forwards’ theory. Goes something like, pick a point guard, pick a power forward. Snooze. Repeat. You finish your draft and you have Devin Harris and Anthony Randolph. You can tick all the boxes, but if you ignore a whole class of players simply because of some common misconceptions, you are not doing yourself any favours.
If you want an example of a solid player to add your roster, look no further than Ray Allen. While some Shooting Guards age poorly (see Peja Stojakovic), Allen is the opposite. While he may not drop 20+ points anymore, he has improved his field goal percentages significantly over the last three seasons with Boston. This season, despite a form slump smack bang in the middle of winter, he averaged 16.3 points at 47.7% from the field. He also chips in with 3 free throw attempts per game at 90%+. You throw in his 1.8 triples, 3.2 boards, 2.6 assists and 0.8 steals per game and there is no area which hurts your team. The best part? All of this comes with low turnovers (1.6 this season, the lowest of his career).
While Ray Allen might be the exception, there are other extremely efficient shooting guards who will get the job done as well. This season, Eric Gordon, despite the injuries, managed to shoot 44.9% from the field and 1.9 triples. George Hill is another for next season who should hold down the starting shooting guard spot. He played 78 games this season and averaged 12.4 points at 47.8% from the field. Ditto John Salmons.
Of course there are players you need to watch out for. The high volume shooting types, Kevin Martin, Jason Terry or J.R Smith come to mind, can and will destroy your field goal percentage for weeks on end when they hit a form slump. But if they are playing well, it’s a source of great points, three’s, percentages and low turnovers. A fantastic example who I think will thrive next season is O.J Mayo. Mayo has jacked his FG% up this season while lowering his assist:turnover ratio and maintaining his other volume stats despite the rise of other teammates around him. This bodes well for the future. He is a shooting guard who chips in everywhere.
I’m not advocating creating a team of shooting guards because clearly it is hard to base your team around that type of player. But what I am saying is don’t ignore quality fantasy prospects because someone once told you SG’s are worthless. This season just passed, the top 25 SG eligible players ranked in the top 68 players according to Yahoo. While I’m not going to chase Trevor Ariza (number 68) at the first available opportunity, I am going to take him over a Michael Beasley type player who hardly shows up most days despite the potential.
Fantasy Basketball Awards 2009-10
I suppose these are not the best player, best 6th man etc etc, but more like awards of how I feel during the fantasy season. Everyone has different opinions in most things fantasy related, this is just my take.
The Fantasy Machine Award – David Lee
Can you think of a more consistent player this season? Sure, for a starting Center he never learnt how to block (0.5 per game) but it seemed every single time I glanced at a Knicks scoreboard, there was a 20 and a 10 staring right back at me alongside Lee’s name. When you throw in his league high 3.6 assists per game, the fact he never misses games and his ridiculous shooting percentages, it all comes into place. And just for kicks, his Yahoo average draft position? 45.6. That’s just nasty.
The What The *&! Award – Al Jefferson
You would be forgiven for thinking that Jefferson was injured for sinigficant amounts of time this season. However, you’d be wrong. He has missed just 6 games this year but more than anything, he has missed the ball in his hands. This season in Minny, he attempted under 15 shots per game. If you want something to compare that against, he had 19 last year and 17 the year before that. Throw a four year low in rebounding (9.2), a three year low in scoring (17.1) and a pretty large regression blocks (1.3, down from 1.7) and you see why owners who took Big Al early in the second round are disappointed. The biggest let down though, is that the potential was there however owners could never tell which Al Jefferson would show up. In March, AJ was 19/11/2 but even that included a 5 game stretch without 10+ boards. Who knows what’s in store next year.
The I Didn’t Know He Could Do That Award – Zach Randolph
While everyone knew he could put up 20/10, no-one really expected it. Nor did anyone think he would fit into Memphis or play every game. Z-Bo proved the doubters wrong and had one of the most productive power forward seasons. He easily compares to players like Carlos Boozer and even Tim Duncan. While he still likes to jack the more than occasional three bomb (29% on 0.7 attempts per game) and struggles on the block (0.4 per game), he kept his turnovers low (2.2) while contributing 20.8 points and 11.7 boards per game. It’s impressive in anyone’s language. You can expect to see him go around the third or fourth round next season.
The I Wish I Had Of Taken Him Award – Marc Gasol
While he has missed a few games at the end of the season, this year’s Yahoo average draft pick number 119 has been a pleasant surprise for owners. I thought his numbers would dip considerably with Da Beet and Z-Bo onboard in Memphis but the more manly of the Gasol brothers stepped up and proved himself. He shot 58.6% from the field on 14.6 points per game, which when paired up with his 9.3 boards and 1.6 blocks per, put him in the conversation with significant 2nd tier fantasy centers.
The I’m Glad I Didn’t Touch Him Award – Greg Oden/Anthony Randolph
The worst thing about Oden is he after owners picked him up on the cheap at the back ends of the draft, he actually played like a demon. 11/8/2 while shooting 60% from the field and under 2 turnovers… all in 24 minutes! He was the bargain of the season. Then just when you everything was going to plan, he does his knee (and takes naughty photos). Just like that, it was over nearly before it even started. Poor Portland? Poor fantasy owners more like it.
At least Oden gave you something. Do you remember the sheer excitement surrounding Ant-Rand back in October? Well. If. You. Dont. Go. Back. And. Look. Phew. Everyone did it. He was a standard 6 round pick. It’s not your fault… blame Don Nelson. Just remember, sometimes the risk isn’t worth the reward and despite all the hype and skills in the world, events can conspire against even the best fantasy prospect.
The I Told You So Award – Andrew Bogut
Now, no-one likes the cocky bloke in the corner, but Andrew Bogut was always going to have a productive fantasy year. It’s such a pity the big fella went down with an awful elbow injury but at least his fantasy doubters are gone for next season. His other worldly 2.5 blocks per game is second only to Dwight in the league, while his 16 and 10 was like gravy all season long. His turnovers? Down (1.9 per game). FT%? Up to a career high (62.9%). Delicious.
The Rookie Award – Steph Curry
I was going to go with ‘Reke because 20/5/5 is damn impressive, but you know what? That’s basically a 2nd rate Joe Johnson and I’m not about that. Curry, the little devil, can do many other things. Like drop 2.1 three bombs per game while still shooting 46% from the field. Throw in 1.9 steals and 87% freebies and you have a winner. Sure, the kid can’t play defense, but that just makes him a better fantasy player in my eyes. Also, anyone sharing a backcourt with Monta Ellis deserves some respect because that dude is a dead set loser. Curry – 2nd rounder next year. Lock it in.
The Old Guy Who Keeps Surprising Everyone Award – Marcus Camby
The three players sitting BEHIND Camby in average stats this season according to Yahoo? Kobe, Boozer and D-Will. Yes, you probably aren’t going to draft him over those guys, but this 86 year old knows how to get it done still. He has never been much of a scorer (7.5 points per game) but boy can he do big man stats with gusto. 2 blocks, nearly 12 boards, 1.3 steals and only 1.2 turnovers per game. In fantasy terms, that’s like bank interest and it just keeps compounding. I dare say he won’t go too early next year, but don’t be surprised when you see him name pop up on the rankings lists once again.
The That Guy Who Didn’t Surprise Anyone Award – Trevor Ariza
I really wanted it all to work out for Ariza. He was the one likeable guy on the Lakers championship squad and they basically screwed him. But what happens when he has to be a star? Epic fail. 39% shooting on nearly 14 shots per game (ouch), 65% from the free throw line and only marginal increases in blocks, steals and boards despite playing 50% more game time (36 minutes per game). Anyone who took Ariza, and most took him after the 8th round according to Yahoo, probably didn’t trust his transformation into a big game player. Well folks, in this case, everyone was right. Perhaps he can turn things around next season with the return of Yao but if you are going to jack up 6 three’s per game, you should try and hit more than 33% of them. Something to work on in the off season.
The Never Again Award – Jose Calderon
In my leagues, no-one liked Calderon. He fell all the way to #44 the league I invest my heart and soul into and even at that spot, he failed to live up to the hype. From my reckoning, there is always something fishy going on if the best thing you do (in this case, free throws), is only happening a tick over twice per game. I don’t care if you shoot 100%, it’s not going to make up for the fact I have Josh Smith playing at the PF. This season, Calderon found… the bench. I’m sure owners were sick of him after 4 weeks, let alone the whole season. Which is a tad ironic, because it was right at the end of the season where he kind of turned it around with some quality games. Next season, you can expect his mock draft spot to be in relative free fall compared to this season.
Some good end of season stuff from around the interwebs:
GiveMeTheRock ask just how good the King and the Durantula really are this season.
NBAMate’s resident fantasy guru has a wrap of the season
Tom Carpenter from ESPN has his fantasy awards while Rotoworld chip in with theirs as well.
C4 fantasy sports with his awards for the season.
