Posted by Henry on October 18, 2010 · 1 Comment
Field Goal % is the most underrated category from my little understanding of fantasy basketball. Last night when I was up doing mock drafts I noticed this most in the middle of the 7th round when Channing Frye, Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza all went in a row. I was gobsmacked. C’mon people, pay some attention. You will often hear about the 10 from 13 effort by random player X but what you never hear are the constant 6 from 14 efforts which slowly destroy your team week after week (*cough* Caron Bulter)
This season there have been some changes to players who normally would be a FG% black hole. I’ve got my take below, including some players who might be regressing this season as well.
Winners
Aaron Brooks: AB already had a massive jump in field goal percentage last season (up 2.8%) to 43.2%. But that is still super low and with 16.2 attempts per game, downright nasty for your teams efficiency. This season, Yao Ming is back in the middle. Kevin Martin is around for a full season. Brooks doesn’t have to be THE guy anymore or carry a team for long stretches. He can get it done when required, have more open looks from deep and won’t have to force shots up that aren’t there. His attempts per game might take a hit, but it is sure to do wonders for his efficiency. Another big jump (45%+) is a real possibility.
Hedo Turkoglu: The Turkish Jordan is renowned for shooting brick after brick, which he can do every night. In Toronto last season, he was a terrible 41% on 9.1 attempts per game. Basically, he was not really feeling it in Canada and should be very happy to return to south of the border. With Nash running the team still, Hedo will have a role. Unlike Brooks, he doesn’t have the talent surrounding him to make his life easier yet in my eyes, you just can’t be that bad again. He is never going to turn into Nene yet you can expect an improvement to about 43-4% on 12-13 attempts per night.
Brandon Jennings: Ugh. That is the one word to describe his season in terms of efficiency last season. The kid can score (55 points never went astray). But 37% on nearly 15 shots per game is an absolute category killer in it’s own right. You would need Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard just to balance it out to something respectable. This one falls into the Turkoglu category in that this will never happen again. The Bucks have got new talent (Maggette, Gooden) who can score when given the opportunity. Last season it was just Jennings and Bogut. This season there is the added experience factor plus others to help out. He’s still going to shoot poorly relative to other point guards however it will be a lot less worse than last go around. 42% on 16 attempts.
Eric Gordon: Gordon already has a +45% career field goal percentage over 140 games. Impressive for a shooting guard playing with the Clippers. He has never been a go to option but has always been there to gather points at a pretty decent clip (about 16 per game). Due to his injury last year, we never saw that sophomore jump which is so common in the league. He was in and out of the team and playing hurt. The best indicator is that his confidence was way down (a 6% drop in FT% demonstrates this easily). His experience on Team USA and his more prominent role on the team will see his scoring increase alongside a better rate. I am thinking a typical Ray Allen season of about 18 points, 46-47% shooting and 2+ threes made. You could do a lot worse at the shooting guard spot.
O.J Mayo: Here are some facts about O.J Mayo. He has not missed a game in the NBA. Despite playing a reduced role on his team in his second season, his stats did not decrease. His FG% jumped 2 points last season to 45.8% despite not attempting any additional threes. This things all point to a marque season for the guard out of USC. As a young player, his additional experience will start to gather, he has shown he can co-exist with Rudy Gay on the floor. I’m betting Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol don’t prove to have the same combined season they did last year. 45.8 is already a pretty high figure but I think Mayo can touch 47% this season on a similar number of shots as last year, making him one of the most efficient shooting guards around. It’s such a pity he doesn’t have PG eligibility this season for all those people out there who love to punt assists (try Jamal Crawford instead)
Losers (just quickly)
Everyone here loses because of a teammate and the subsequent change in team environment.
Mo Williams will be asked to perform heavy minutes this season with an extremely heavy workload. No LeBron means more defensive pressure and less open looks, camping out in the corner for three. It’s just going to be nasty efficiency wise but he should make up for it with other increases. I also think the same thing will happen to Deron Williams. Sure, he is still a first round pick, but you can’t under-estimate the bond him and Carlos Boozer had on the pick n’ roll. Al Jefferson is a completely different player who will take a lot of getting used to and one area this will affect is his FG%. Channing Frye plays a position which demands a low FG%. The Suns motley collection of forwards (Hedo, Hakim Warrick, Josh Childress) aren’t going to get the job done like Amar’e could. Nash needs people to give the ball to but Frye is going to see so much pressure rushing at him whenever he jacks a long ball, it will take it’s toll. Finally, Andrea Bargnani is in the same position. Except 1000 times worse. Chris Bosh might be underrated this season in fantasy but he was the heart and soul of that offense. A lot of people are talking up Bargnani this year but please factor in the inevitable drop off in FG% which results in the added pressue to be the number one option, with a total lack on inside game and inability to draw fouls. It’s going to be long ball after long ball and it’s not going to be pretty most nights.
Filed under Draft, Off-Season 2010, Player Comparison · Tagged with Aaron Brooks, Andrea Bargnani, brandon jennings, Channing Frye, deron williams, Eric Gordon, Hedo Turkoglu, Mo Williams, O.J Mayo
Posted by Henry on October 8, 2010 · 7 Comments
I see lots of lists everywhere I look on basketball blogs at the moment. The internet + fantasy + basketball = lists. Why aren’t I getting in on that action I asked myself? Probably because I don’t do anything the easy way was the response. BUt times, they are a changing. So here is a proper list, with an arbitrary number of points on a specific subject.
13) Kevin Martin will play more games than Gilbert Arenas and also have more fantasy value. Boom. Take that email argument from two days ago. This came out of a discussion with my Gilbert Arenas loving house-mate who thinks that Arenas is about to turn into the next incarnation of Pistol Pete Maravich. Apparently when John Wall is the savior, miraculous things happen to players who have lost their way. I call absolute balony on the grandest of scales. I do think Arenas will provide fantasy value but a top 5 SG? Nope. Lead the league in 3PTM? Nope. He will continue to shoot a terrible clip for FT% and manage a way above average TO rate for a SG. Kevin Martin on the other hand is about to light it up, Rockets style. He is playing for a smart coach and embedded in the highest basketball IQ team in the league. He has zero pressure on his shoulders with Yao and Brooks running the show. I can easily see 20+ points per night, with multiple threes, a wicked FT% and best of all, a career high FG%. He will miss time but 70+ games is to be expected.
12) DeMarcus ‘Boogie’ Cousins will win fantasy rookie of the year. This is mainly because of what he won’t do, as opposed to what he will do. John Wall will also put up big numbers, but like every rookie point guard to ever have played, his FG% will be somewhere in the dirt and his turnover numbers will be through the roof. Cousins has the advantage of being a big man who comes in as the most NBA ready rookie of those selected in the lottery. For fantasy, this means relatively low turnovers, higher FG% while still doing things like score, board and block. There are no negatives here people unless he has a brain explosion. The more I see of Cousins, the more I get this feeling that Sac-Town are going to fall in love with him and Evans running the place ragged. While he might initially battle for minutes, by Week 6 he will be playing 30+ night in, night out. You can’t keep a good thing down.
11) Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James will all average within 4 points of each other. Every time the Heat get mentioned, all I see are camera flashes and smirks on faces accompanied by a loud groan from the NBA masses. It has already reached that point. However this is not just a story about one player. Or two. It’s going to be about all three. People will look back and Chris Bosh could well be the reason why this all worked out fine, or why it all crashed in flames. He has to want it at least a thousand times more than his play in Toronto suggests. He will get his points in all kinds of manners which we can’t even understand yet. Left unguarded under the basket, dropping 18 foot jump shots with no-one chasing him down, alley-oops from distance. This season will have it all for Chris Bosh and that means points, points and more points. I’ll put it officially at 22.9 per game, which would be more than enough to stay within the margin of Wade and James. It also makes him a very attractive fantasy option, one of a handful of 20/10 guys out there. He still probably can’t block, but those points will be some of the most efficient in the league.
Baby Davis didn't make the cut for 2010-11 predictions
10) Jameer Nelson will storm back into some form and be one of those pesky point guards that seems to have a blinding week for your opponent but against no-one else. Two seasons ago, despite playing only 42 games, Nelson was the bee’s knees as a second tier point guard. He has never been one for a cache of assists but he has the ability to turn it on when required. In that 2008-09 season, he averaged 2 3ptm, 1+ steal and amazing efficiency. His drop off has been pretty substantial since then, as he struggled with injury and the arrival of Vince Carter. But Nelson is the glue guy for Orlando this season. Carter hasn’t proved anything and may get moved before the deadline. Rashard Lewis is stuck in major funk from which I don’t think there is an escape. The thing is, this Magic team is only good enough when it really counts when Jameer is in top gear. Chris Duhon and Jason Williams are capable but small spells will be the order of the day. If the rumors about Dwight Howard’s offensive game (I think I’ve heard this one before though) are true, it’s only going to contribute. I’m not advocating you take Nelson anywhere in particular for your squads just that he’ll bounce back and cause some pain for opponents at some point during this season. He is too good not too.
9) The proliferation of the 1-1-1 guy. Last season we only saw two players actually record more than 1 three, 1 steal and 1 block every game over the course of the season and they are called Durant and James. Many others were close, but close sorta don’t cut it in my books. This season, there will be a rash of 1-1-1 players crowing their talents from the treetops. A certainty you can add to the list is Dwyane Wade. But let us focus on some more low key guys. Whatever you think about Channing Frye, as he seems to be a pretty polarising player in fantasy circles, he should average more than 27 minutes a game and in turn, nudge up his steals (0.8) and blocks (0.9) from last season to walk on hallowed turf. Andrea Bargnani should easily make this list but can’t steal a ball worth a damn. Last season he only managed 0.3 per game. Lazy? Perhaps but if he is going to be ‘da man’ in Toronto, this will have to change. There are a pair of Knicks (Gallo and Azubuike) who will be there about. If you are a Rudy Gay believer (and I’m not) then his 0.8 3ptm and 0.8 blocks totals are disappointing for a player of his ability but I don’t see him busting many balls on the court given his massive pay day. The most promising candidates though are those who were short, but only managed to play limited minutes. Nic Batum and Michael Beasley fit the bill here. And a flier? Troy Murphy only averages 0.4 blocks per game but playing alongside Brook Lopez and coming across with help defense could, in some far off fairy land, bump this total up.
8) Serge Ibaka will start for the Thunder and become the Chris Anderson for the next decade. The playoff series against the Lakers was Ibaka’s coming out party. Despite losing that series, Air Congo as he is affectionately known to OKC supporters was a monster. Against the best big combination in the league and the eventual NBA champions, Ibaka held his own defensively for long periods of time (25 minutes per game) over the 6 games. He isn’t exactly an offensive mega star in waiting but with Durant and Westbrook as teammates it’s not exactly an issue. But he can block. And block and block. So, instead of picking Chris Anderson with that 11th round pick, aim for Ibaka in the 10th instead just to make sure you nab him.
7) Old guys will continue to make fools of the haters out there. I’m talking mostly about three guys. Marcus Camby, Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. For the past two years I have been railing against anyone who brings their names up, deriding them for believing in players who cannot keep doing what they do. Yet they keep on keeping on regardless of what anybody says. Perhaps this is my personal mea culpa, an apology to what I believe have been overrated old fantasy stars but in reality they are just plain fantasy stars like everyone else. Steve Nash led the league in assists last year. Marcus Camby finished the season with a top 25 overall fantasy rank regardless of what system you use. Jason Kidd has missed 3 games in the past 2 seasons while throwing down three pointers with alarming regularity (+2 per game) and amazing accuracy (+40%), not to mention the 9+ assists and 5+ boards. Each of these guys have slid down draft boards over the past month because of concerns about age but what makes this year so much different? Nothing.
Steve Nash as he was originally intended
6) Twitter will make you more competitive in your league. If you are reading this blog, you probably know what twitter is. That said, unless you are a junkie, this isn’t going to apply to you. You know those people, scanning their phones every 15 seconds not because they got a text message from an actual friend but because they racked up another 3 @ replies. Those people. Well, they have an advantage over you and your reliance on Rotoworld to update you on the latest player movements, injuries and form. You are officially 1-2 hours behind the twitterati who if this were last season, have already picked up Darren Collison as Chris Paul is still sitting on courtside wondering what just happened. Twitter explodes at key moments because someone is always watching the news as it’s happening and this news spreads like wide fire, first on Twitter then to other parts of the internet and finally to the mainstream. If you think catching the scores on SportsCenter when you get home is going to cut it in 2010-11 for your fantasy news, you have another thing coming my friend.
5) Elton Brand will be the player who most outperforms his Average Draft Position. I know this is a big call considering it’s normally some rookie or super back up who was not even drafted in the vast majority of leagues, but I think Brand is just going to kill it this season. This comes from someone who dislikes watching 76er games so much, if it happens to be one of the two televised games that week in Australia, it doesn’t get tivo’d. Doug Collins is on the record as a big Brand supporter. He is fully recovered from his injury. All signs point to a massive boast. One the other side, his name is often mentioned as a 4th or 5th option at PF and nowhere I read is even the least bit excited in him. Perhaps wisely, but I don’t understand how a player with as much talent as he obviously does can continue to suck for so long. 34+ minutes, 19/9 with 2+ blocks.
4) As opposed to the above, Paul Pierce will be the most disappointing player related to his ADP. On the latest yahoo big board he is late 4th round. Pierce was a great player. He led his team when it was going through the worst era of the franchise. He led the league in scoring. He adapted his game when necessary over the past three seasons. But he looks OLD. With KG fit and better than ever (compared to the last two seasons anyway), Rondo taking on more and more responsibility and the combination of Ray Allen and Nate Rob in the backcourt and Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal in the front spells the least reliance on Pierce since he was a rookie. He will still get minutes, still do that annoying head fake, draw the contact crap that has been his bread and butter for years but the excitement and the bang for your buck is way over. 14-15 points with filler (2-3 assists, 3-4 boards, 1.2 3ptm) is fine for the Celtics this season but the problem is, that’s not 4th round material.
A picture tells 1000 words
3) Kid Delicious (aka Kevin Durant) will be the most dominant fantasy player since Garnett’s 2003-04 season. The gap between KD and whoever ends up as the 2nd option is going to be spectacular (barring injury). Sure, he is a consensus number one pick everywhere you look, but his dominance is going to be unbelievable. Box scores are literally going to explode with goo half way through the 3rd quarter. I’m big on going over the top, so let’s not stop at the 2000 word count. Toss out the pencil, grab your permanent marker and write this down: 33 points, 9.5 boards, 50/40/90 with 1.8 threes, 3+ steals/blocks. Eat it Chris Paul. (post script: as I was finishing this post up, this was on twitter about KD and partying. EXACTLY why he is number 1)
2) Tyreke Evans will play beautiful, exquisite basketball for the Kings but this will not translate into first round talent. I just saw this tweet from Steve Alexander (head of Rotoworld NBA) saying that he is going late first round/early second round in all of his drafts. Which makes me sick. There is no doubt he is an ungodly talent on the basketball court but one quarter of pre-season hoops against the Clippers does not mean he can shoot threes or make free-throws all season long. Sorry, just the truth.
1) Luol Deng will continue his domination of Rashard Lewis. This one is for my boy Jason over at fbasketballblog who is forever doubting the talents of Britain’s greatest export. If you are still reading, I’m sorry to end on such a middle of the road kind of thing but this is going to become my singular achievement for the season after the inevitable collapse of my fantasy teams by about week 15. Deng has been biding his time but now it has arrived. He has always flirted with being a major piece of the puzzle and now that Derrick Rose has matured a little, Joakim Noah is a beast in the middle and Kyle Korver is running around jacking threes, Deng is left to hit his stride and carry his load on offense. While Rashard Lewis might be making $19.5 MILLION US DOLLARS this season (this point needs to be emphasised over and over again with every bricked three point attempt), he cannot compete!
Filed under Musings, Off-Season 2010 · Tagged with Andrea Bargnani, Brook Lopez, Channing Frye, Chris Bosh, DeMarcus Cousins, Dwyane Wade, Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, Jameer Nelson, jason kidd, John Wall, Kevin Durant, Kevin Martin, LeBron James, Luol Deng, Marcus Camby, Michael Beasley, Nic Batum, Paul Pierce, Rashard Lewis, Rudy Gay, Serge Ibaka, Steve Nash, Troy Murphy, Twitter, Tyreke Evans
Posted by Henry on August 27, 2010 · 2 Comments
I just finished up the first mock draft for the season (thanks to Jason @ fbasketballblog for hosting) and let me tell you, do I need some more practice!
First, here are the results and rosters. It was quite a lively field for a Thursday night in late August. Tippy from Fantasy Basketball Daily, Patrick from GMTR, Jason from fBasketballBlog, Doneycat from Talesof9cats and Justin from LIJAFBB (life is just a fantasy basketball blog) all showed up, as did some other guys who made for good conversation. It was 14 rounds, 10 team, H2H with 9 categories. Pretty simple stuff.
My immediate reactions when I look at my roster are that while I believe in the players I think are going to have major improvements this season, that doesn’t mean they should all be on the one team together. I had no hesitation taking Steph Curry at #9 despite the ridicule which followed. I would have really liked to partner him up with D Wade or Granger but Jason nabbed them back to back, leaving me with David Lee. This was my first mistake. It’s way too risky to have both your first picks on one team, let alone one team with a mad coach, new owners and an inability to win games. If I was after a big man who can shot FT% (which I was), it should have been Amar’e because he is going to tear it up in NYC. Strike 1. I can’t believe Patrick took Gasol at #4 however I have a feeling it was just to spite me. Mission completed. The winner after two picks, especially picking last, was Jason with Wade/Granger. It’s a bit insane that this could be common in ten man leagues because they both have such high ceilings. The rest of the second round was pretty standard (Lopez, Wallace, Anthony, Nash). Moving on.
Rounds 3 and 4 are normally where things get interesting in my eyes. Different opinions really come to the fore as specific teams start to take shape. With Curry and Lee on board, I decided it was time to jump on Bargnani (3rd) and Stephen Jackson (4th) to try and attempt some blocks, threes and steals. I was also picking players who tend to shoot great FT% but my turnovers are already leaking with Jackson and Curry. I still like Bargnani over the similar Troy Murphy this season but Jackon doesn’t really fit this team I think. Someone like David West (if I wanted to go big, he went #39) or Derrick Rose (small, went #36) would’ve been better. The big movers this year shined through in the 3rd and 4th round. Westbrook went at #26, Al Horford was #30 and Andrew Bogut was #35 despite his injury (which I still like, but many others don’t). I love Patrick’s Al Jefferson pick at #37 to go with Chaucey, Amar’e and Pau. Really gives that team some much needed grunt. All three of those big guys score a bunch and Jefferson’s FT dilemmas are offset by the other guys.
Who would you pick with the 5th if you already had Curry, Lee, Bargs and S.Jax?Ray Felton and O.J Mayo? Cool, come join the club. I had Nene and Joakim Noah on my ‘to pick’ list, but both went before I came round again. If Felton is a little bit of a reach at #49, I don’t know what that makes Mayo at #52. As I said before, I like both their upsides this year. Felton will be running the pick and roll and day long with Amar’e and the Knicks have such a good pace factor that even if he only manages 30-32 minutes a night with Toney Douglas getting some time share, that is still good for 6-7 assists, some threes and steals at a minimum. Obviously I am expecting more. Plus, he is exciting to own and it will be a bit of a rollercoaster ride. Here is a good rule for drafting as well. Don’t read other people’s stuff about specific players right before the draft. I knew Tippy liked Mayo but that doesn’t excuse him at #52. I also knew he wouldn’t fall to #69 which was my next pick but sometimes players just aren’t in the right position for you to draft them. This should have been a pass. Kevin Martin, Manu and J-Rich all went in the next 5 picks and any of them would have been the better options despite their health concerns. So, let’s call that Strike 2. Doneycat took KG at #53 which might not be a popular pick, is still a very good one. KG was third round value last year according to Basketball Monster and even with more of a drop off factored into his performance this season, I’d be happy to take him there. In case you’d like to know, John Wall was an auto pick at #60. Lastly, I think I will rename Round 6, “He who misses many games per season”. KG, Kev-Mart, Manu and Camby.
Do you like Andray Blatche at #62? I did about 2 months ago, but I’m not too sure about him now. Wall, Hinrich, McGee, Arenas are all going to need their touches. He was a bonafide superstar when there was no one else around but now there are and his stats will suffer because of it. This coming from the guy who just drafted Mayo at #52.
I feel my Round 7/8 combo pick either made my team or destroyed it. Blake Griffin and Yao Ming didn’t manage to play a game of NBA basketball between them last year, but have so much potential to dominate (well, as much as you can dominate in the 7th and 8th rounds) that it was easily justifiable to make both picks. All I can imagine right now is Griffin coming out of nowhere for the put back dunks and Yao standing in the post demanding the ball off Courtney Lee and Chase Buddinger who gladly give it up. Sweetness. Of course, I recognise the massive risk here but Andrew Bynum, Paul Millsap and Luis Scola don’t do it for me and they were the suggested picks for bigs at that stage. Marcus Thornton at pick #79 for mine is the best pick this draft. He has no competition for minutes, has already shown what he can do with Darren Collison and now gets to play with Chris Paul. You can bank the ridiculous numbers of threes and points coming your way. Other points of interest these rounds; Gilbert Arenas (#74) and Rashard Lewis/Luol Deng (#66/#67, this is only just the beginning Jason – I’ll be collecting the kudos by Christmas)
A bunch of talent left the board in Round 9. Hibbert, Jameer Nelson, Chris Kaman, Vince Carter and Tony Parker all made their way onto rosters. I went with Robin Lopez. I am excited for the big guy this year in Phoenix. Admittedly, after I picked I actually had a look at my team and saw Yao, Griffin, Bargs and David Lee. Probably didn’t need another Center candidate at this stage especially as I had my eye on Greg Oden as a sneaky late pick up. I figure though, if you draft a very good player, it’s not all lost as he should be easy to trade and improve your squad in the early days of the season. I’m giving myself a pass here. The Brazilian Blur was up next as I took Leandro Barbosa with my Rd 10 pick (#92). I said of him just the other day that his range was 62-90 so to get him here I was very happy. He beefs up my somewhat depleted guard stocks and is the perfect foil for prospective trades later on in the season if he really outperforms. Also in round 10 some big boys came to play. DeMarcus Cousins (#93), Elton Brand (#94) and JaVale McGee (#98). Who would’ve thought that at this time last season?
Before we press on, a very quick update on my team to date; Curry, Lee, Bargs, SJax, Felton, Mayo, Yao, Blake Griffin, Robin Lopez and Barbosa. Missing: A quality Small Forward. You get one guess at the next pick.
You know it, Tyrus ‘In Yo Face’ Thomas. He might not fit the bill as quality small forward, but he will finally have the chance to play serious minutes in Charlotte and make an impact. He is a steal/block machine of the highest order and I think he is a steal at #109. George Hill was my next pick at #112. It’s not that I think he will be amazing or even a good player at San Antonio this season with Tony Parker but more a gamble that TP won’t play that many minutes. I feel Hill is exactly the type of player you want at this stage of your draft. Reliable but could be explosive depending on other things. I feel slightly less ill about my guard situation with him aboard for season 2010-11. Tippy was pretty happy to land Andris Biedrins for some reason. I really don’t like him this season. Ben Gordon is value at #105, as is T-Will at #103. Michael Beasley slipped all the way to #119, one spot after Anderson Varejao. I’d be happy with either of these guys as my 12th round pick.
To finish up, I punted on Serge Ibaka and Kelenna Azubuike (whose name I have typed so often in the past three weeks I now finally now how to spell it). I don’t even know if Ibaka will play many minutes with Cole Aldrich in town but I like him for 2+ blocks even with only 15 minutes per night. Azubuike is a different story. He might start for the Knicks and was once a 14 points per game dude in the Bay. I’m not expecting that here, but he can shoot the three and steal the ball as well. I’m banking on him being better than Wilson Chandler. However, after looking at some of the players still on the boards as we finish up who could have bigger impacts (Hansborough, Shane Battier, Drew Gooden, Thad Young etc), we will call this Strike 3. Batter Up.
Final Rosters:
West (Auto pick): Durant, Rondo, Bosh, Gay, Jamison, Wall, B Diddy, Jason Terry, Jeff Green, Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Maggette, J.R Earl Smith, Spencer Hawes
LIJAFBB: LBJ, Evans, Kidd, West, M Gasol, Camby, Blatche, Thornton, Scola, Andre Miller, Reggie Williams, Michael Beasley, D.J Augustin, Greg Monroe
Boogerboys: (Auto pick till 8th Round): CP3, Roy, J.Smith, Pierce, Nene, Manu, Caron Bulter, Ariza, Hibbert, McGee, T-Will, Varejao, Splitter, Lou Williams
GMTR(Patrick): Pau Gasol (…), Amar”’e, Billups, Al Jefferson, Mo Williams (insert Baby Crying, Auto Draft from here), J-Rich, Jamal Crawford, Paul Millsap, J.Nelson, C Frye, Calderon, Diaw, Thompson, Queensbridge Artest
Drafting Hungover: Dirk, Nash, Joe JOhnson, Rose, Z Randolph, Harris, Jennings, Bynum, Kaman, Ray Allen, Ben Gordon, Favors, Greg Oden, Casspi
ec236: Kobe, Lopez, Westbrook, Bogut, Love, Kev-Martin, R. Lewis, E. Gordon, Vince Carter, Harrington, Okur, Odom, Haywood, Roddy Buckets
FantasyGod(Tippy): D-Will, Melo, Monta, Duncan, Noah, Aldridge, Luol Deng, Arenas, Tony Parker, Brand, Biedrins, Okafor, S. Marion, Wilson Chandler (Rd 8 through 13 and he was drafting like it was 2007)
DoneyCat: Dwight, Wallace, Iggy, T Murphy, Collison, KG, Salmons, Morrow, Landry, DeMarcus, Childress, Chandler, Kleiza, Batum,
Me: Curry, Lee, Bargnani, S Jackson, Felton, Mayo, Yao, Griffin, R Lopez, Barbosa, Tyrus Thomas, George Hill, iBlocka, Azubuike
fBasketballBlog(Jason): Wade, Granger, Horford, Boozer, Gallo, Turkoglu, Brooks, A Randolph, Hickson, Stuckey, Dalembert, AK47, Mike Miller, Beno Udrih.
Best teams; split between LIJAFBB and Drafting Hungover (could’ve been Patrick if he didn’t abandon us for his child). Best pick; Thornton #79 and Tiago Splitter #123. Thanks to Jason for organising, I’m sure we’ll see more of this in the near future.
Biggest lesson here; lots of mock drafts required before the season actually starts. Cheers for everyone who turned it, was a solid hour of entertaining chatter.
Filed under Fantasy Basketball, Mock Draft, Off-Season 2010 · Tagged with Andrea Bargnani, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Fantasy Basketball, George Hill, Kelenna Azubuike, Leandro Barbosa, Mock Draft, O.J Mayo, Ray Felton, Robin Lopez, Serge Ibaka, steph curry, Stephen Jackson, Tyrus Thomas, Yao Ming
Posted by Henry on July 23, 2010 · 2 Comments
From what I’ve read recently, most people will still be happy to take LeBron James as a number two pick, while Dwyane Wade is no slouch either, coming in at between six and eight. However, Chris Bosh has gone from first round lock to barely scrapping into the second round. Is this a fair assumption? Let’s check it out.
In Toronto, Bosh earned his fantasy meal ticket primarily because of three things. In 2009-10, he dropped 24 points a game, added 10.8 boards and had excellent percentages (.516FG on 16.6 attempts and .797FT on 8.4 attempts). The other categories (blocks, three’s, assists, steals, TO) were all pretty stock standard for a PF/C, so let’s leave them alone for the moment.
Not the first option anymore, but still a solid fantasy player (Image from SLAM 8/25/08)
How will these numbers move in Miami? Two levels here, easy to predict and hard to predict. Easy first. The percentages are safe. Unless he forgets how to hit 18 foot jumpers and free throws, and if he did, Dwyane Wade would not be a happy camper, then these numbers are if anything going to rise. When you have Wade and James giving you the ball, hogging all the attention from the defense, it’s a safe bet to think that FG% will nudge up by 2-3%. Locked it. Furthermore, opposing teams are going to be in all sorts of foul trouble from the 2nd quarter onwards vs. the Heat, especially big men who get tangled up when the driving to the hoop party really begins. That means, that while the opportunity to create freebies on shots will decrease personally for Bosh presuming he gets a reduced number of looks, it will be easier to score and opportunities will come in non-shooting situations. Thus, those 8.4 attempts might fall a tad, but nothing to be worried about (in the 7-8 range).
To the problems. Rebounds. 10.8 is a lot of boards. The Raptors played a pretty up tempo basketball style, with lots of opportunities to score. The Heat were slowly last season in possessions per game, but should get faster this year. That said, Wade and James are both high rebounding players and the addition of Big Z is not going to help matters either. In Toronto, Bosh only had Andrea Bargnani to grab a pathetic 6 boards a game. Despite only starting in 6 of his 63 games last season, Z still managed 5.4 boards per game. So when we take into account these factors, it is more than reasonable to think that Bosh might only average between 7.5 and 8.5 boards a game, which is a pretty substantial hit and puts him on a level with a whole bunch of pretty average big men such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden (who only needed 23 mins/g to achieve it). If your chasing quality boards in the second round, I would look past Bosh and perhaps at David Lee or Gerald Wallace.
For me, scoring is much more a mystery. 16.6 field goal attempts per game seems like a lot. But given the context of the Raptors, it really isn’t. There wasn’t another player chucking up that many and for a dominant offensive big man, it’s a little disappointing. At Miami, Bosh will be the only inside presence, much like at the Raptors, but he prefers those dinky jump shots which he is very good at. It really depends how teams decide to play the Heat. With double teams, Bosh will get more looks. However he is going to be the third option on this team, no if’s or butt’s about it. 13 attempts per game, at a slightly higher percentage should still create 20+ per night and I think this will happen. The Heat will be lucky to get 30 points from players apart from their Big Three (Chalmers, Miller, Z, Jones, Haslem, Arroyo etc), so even if Wade and James drop 25 each, Bosh still needs to play his role, which will be substantial.
Finally, I think that Bosh will be the one to stay on the floor a little bit longer than others when games are over or in junk time. There is nothing scientific behind this, just a feeling. Bosh is clearly a good enough player to carry teams for stretches, as we saw in Toronto, so this will happen in Miami. Why not make that time to rest Wade and James? It makes sense and even if it’s just for 2-3 minutes per night averaged out over the season, that’s good for a bump in stats.
In the end, I think we are looking at approximately this: 21 points, 52.5% and 80.5%, 7.9 boards, with the other standards thrown in (2.9 assists, 1+ block and less than 2.5 turnovers). If you like your big men efficient, lean and mean, that’s good enough for the second round in my books. If you prefer players who dominate multiple categories but give up in others (Howard for example), then you will probably not be a fan this season.
And Toronto fans? You still have the former number one pick, the Italian Stallion himself, Andrea “Man On Campus” Bargnani.
Things are looking up for the Raptors
Posted by Henry on June 30, 2010 · Leave a Comment
For every action, there is a reaction. And the same goes in fantasy hoops. It’s great that so many rookies these days can have a significant impact for their teams, right off the bat so to speak. But on the flip side of that coin is the impact on already established players. The following is a bit of a list of players who have been affected, for better or worse, by recent events. I’ve got a very rough projection which obviously doesn’t account for further changes post July 1. We’ll post something similar on the wash up from the free agent bonanza which is approaching so very quickly.
Andre Iguodala:
AI as he prefers to be known has been a pretty consistent fantasy producer. While last season wasn’t his best, he still started all 82 games and dropped 17/6.5/5.8 with 1 trey and 1.7 steals along the way. Hopefully you didn’t draft him for his percentages. But with the arrival of Evan Turner, perhaps the most NBA ready player from the draft, are these precious numbers in danger? New coach Doug Collins is a personal favorite of AI who was in favor of his hiring. This is a good sign. Turner can also apparently play without the need to have the ball in his hands at all times. Another positive. When you throw in the fact that better players around you generally increase individual players efficiency, this looks like a winner. Buuuuut… there is a real chance Turner showcases everything he has from the get go. Rookie predictions are difficult but 16 points and 3.5 assists isn’t out of the question and I think these numbers directly impact on AI. Watch for his assists to drop but his ‘big man’ stats (boards, FG%) to rise as he moves to a permanent three man. Late 2nd Round.
Danny Granger:
Let me start by saying I love Granger. I have never owned him but have always lusted after him. Does everything a good small forward should do. But the question has to be asked, why did the Pacers draft Granger v2.0 (or v0.2?) in the form of Paul George? Not exactly the best college player (George was named to the 2nd all WAC team, not the first – And I don’t even know what WAC is) but he still was drafted at #10 due to excellent workouts. Granger is not in any danger of losing his spot, but who knows what will happen to a roster which has a budding young player sitting on the bench and the Pacers start the season 15-30, which I would say is a more than reasonable suggestion. Granger is still an automatic first rounder (albeit with an asterisk due to past injuries) but I don’t like what the Pacers are playing at with moves like this. Late 1st Round.
Andrea Bargnani:
Bargnani could be the big winner in Toronto this summer in relation to fantasy production. Everyone knows he is perfect for your small ball team, but things could have just improved even more so. Ed Davis might not be the massive monster inside presense which the Raptors require, but he when he does play offense (which isn’t that often), he hates anything outside of 5 feet. Last season Davis took 0.4 jump shots per game, which means Bargs will be hanging out of the perimeter, taking lots of threes, plus doing basically whatever he wants. While he might cop the best big defender each night with Bosh leaving (presumed at this point in time), it should lead to an uptick in all things small ball (points, three’s). 4th Round.
Sacramento Front Court:
How things change. This time last year it was the Thompson and Hawes show with people waiting in anticipation to draft them. This season, hopefully nothing like that occurs. Hawes has been shipped to Philly while Thompson will be plying his trade alongside Carl Landry, Dalembert (traded for Hawes) and the number five draft pick, self proclaimed best player in the draft, DeMarcus Cousins. So let’s begin quickly by dismissing Thompson. He is going to struggle for minutes on this loaded team and while he will chip in here and there, he is probably only a serious prospect if someone goes down. Cousins really is the wildcard here. He has been labeled many things, many not very nice, but he is confident in his abilities, as are the Kings (and the Pistons who wanted to drafted him as well). I think he will be OK on the offensive end but end up like most rookies and be extremely inconsistent. Nothing seems to impact on Carl Landry too much, whether it be traded, being a 6th man or playing starter. He is the smallest of the front court and can play small forward. 18 points per game (what he averaged for Sac-Town last season) is too much of an ask, but a solid 15-5 with wicked cruel percentages is nothing to sneeze at. Dalembert is the final piece. He only played 25 minutes per game for the Sixers last year for 8 points, 9.5 boards and 1.8 blocks. Similar stats I see for this season but I would start him at Center and he is known for offensive busts and if he teams up well with Evans who loves to drive into the lane, opportunities could quickly open up. Thompson (undrafted), Landry (8th Round), Dalembert (12th Round).
Brook Lopez:
Get on board this train because it leaves the station early. Apart from Kevin Durant, Lopez is my favorite fantasy player. In H2H leagues, he is clearly the 3rd best Center in the league (after Howard and Gasol), and if you are a punk and love roto leagues, he moves up a spot. And all of this after only two seasons! The trend will continue this year thanks to two extreme improvements to the Nets roster (note: all of this changes if the Net’s pick up an elite big man in free agency). The first occurred when Derrick Favors got drafted, providing some serious help on the inside defensively for Lopez. Then second happened when Yi Jianlian was traded to the Wizards, which provides Lopez with even more opportunity on the offensive end. Yi might not have been very good at actual basketball, but he ate up his fair share of offensive opportunities. BroLo is heading to a borderline first round pick after this season. New coach, new teammates. It all equals good times, like his draft night. Early 2nd round (20/10 with two blocks).
Washington Backcourt:
John Wall givith, John Wall taketh away. While the #1 pick has done wonders for the Wizards, the organisation has decided to go a bit cuckoo in the process. Gilbert Arenas, whatever value he once had, has been halved again. ESPN has Wall (#44, seriously overvalued) a full 42 spots above Arenas (#86, a touch low) in their current fantasy rankings. Be it injuries, guns or just plain crazy, Arenas has it all. Obviously slotting in at shooting guard, he is going to lose a lot of his assists (7.2 last season), however in the process will drop his turnovers. Add to the mix the addition of Kirk Hinrich, apparently to become some kind of mentor to Wall (and maybe for his defense), and Gilbert just lost his 37 minutes per game as well. Oh well. Say goodbye to his 22 points, 4.2 boards and 1.3 steals. I think his three pointers made (2.0 in 09-10) will be the one aspect which doesn’t adjust too much. For Hinrich, I can’t see him finding 33 minutes per game this season. He is a defense first guy, who will chip in with threes and steals, similar to his role in Chicago. Probably not worth it in standard leagues. Arenas (8th Round), Hinrich (undrafted).
Other things around the place worth reading:
FantasyBasketballDaily with their take on the Draft
Remembering the disappointment of last season
Filed under Off-Season 2010 · Tagged with Andre Iguodala, Andrea Bargnani, Brook Lopez, Carl Landry, Danny Granger, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Thompson, Kirk Hinrich, Samuel Dalembert, Spencer Hawes, Yi Jianlian
