The Triple Double Threat
There are many things in fantasy basketball which light a fire in my belly. Brook Lopez, Greg Oden’s blocks per36, Kevin Martin at the free throw line. All delicious, all the time. But there is something even greater than all of those put together and that is the player who earns the right to be called a Triple-Double Threat (TDT). The TDT is a mysterious individual. Sometimes short, sometimes slow. Sometimes he will appear from nowhere, dazzle with his talents and then disappear for weeks on end. Now they are not the be all and end all of Fantasy ball, but 10+ in three different categories is something to behold and has the ability to totally swing a game week for the better.
For the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season, there are some old timers, some new players and some surprises who could become the next TDT. They include;
Jason Kidd: Old Man River used to be the ultimate Triple Double machine. But last season, he topped out only twice. Reason? He couldn’t score enough baskets to reach 10 points. Kidd reached double digits 4 times in Boards and Assists without making it to 10 points. Poor effort on his behalf, but it shows he still has the fire within him to be a true TDT. Personally, I prefer my threats to be a bit bigger, a bit scarier and a more angry. Kidd fits none of these categories at all. Plus, he plays with Dirk. I bet that locker room is a barrel of laughs.
Rajon Rondo: The little green alien is the man these days when it comes to potential TDT. He had two triple-doubles in the playoffs alone last season, to go with his 2 from the regular season. However there were another four times last season when he was less than 3 combined boards/assists away from a triple-double. Did you hear that the Celtics aged even more during the off-season, except for their point guard? All this means more stats, more speed and more everything from the little guy. The TDT title is his to lose at this point, which is admittedly 8 weeks before the season even starts.
Andre ‘Don’t call me Iggy’ Iguodala: If you have to tell people to stop calling you something, you are a bit of a joke. AI9 as he prefers to be called (seriously?!) might not have actually accrued a trip-doub last season but was a constant threat, an important part of the TDT make up. Despite averaging 5.8 assists per game, Iggy only managed to break the 10+ assists four times in 2009-10. That means that, a) he is very consistent with his assists, and b) he is angry at me for calling him Iggy. With Evan Turner on board, together with the evolution of Jrue Holiday, I think his prospects for more stat stuffing triple-doubles might have diminished, however he can be the token guy who always makes a list like this.
Dwight Howard: D12 is the first player to make the list for something other than the stock standard points/boards/assists combo. The big fella doesn’t quite have the touch to rack up the assists, so instead uses two hands every night to count his blocks. Like Iggy before him, Howard didn’t actually manage a triple-double last season, but he did block 7+ shots four times, giving himself every chance. I’d love to see the big man do it as his smile would be wide enough to cover Stan Van Gundy’s belly.
Stephen Curry: As mad dog Nelson continues to bark orders which his players ignore, Stephen Curry continues to amass gigantic totals of everything. Lots of people used to get on board Chris Paul to get a quad-doub (4 categories with double digits for you mathematically challenged ball junkies), but my money is on Curry. The man steals a ball quicker than Iguodala falls over, which is very quickly. That said, Curry only actually achieved one trip-doub last season, so he is still a fair way from going to even greater heights.
Terrence Williams: T-Will is the next big thing in New Jersey, which is to say, he is relatively small fry to the rest of us. But man can the kid ball. When given the opportunity at the end of last season, he averaged 14 points, 7 boards and 6 assists over 7 games in April. The dude is a smooth operator who will surprise many this season with his ability to create stats from nowhere. A true sophomore TDT.
Boris Diaw: It pains me to put him alongside these other players but according to Hoopedia, he is “He is lauded for his unselfish, but assertive play, and his versatility also makes him a triple-double threat”. I have never seen anyone laud him for his assertive play, but whatever. They go on for a whole paragraph about his previous triple-doubles. There is another reason he makes this list. In 2008-09, he had a pretty nice stat line of 14/7/7/7… until you realise that one of those 7′s was his turnovers. Perhaps the only player in the league who is able to threaten a negative trip-doub, that being 10+ turnovers.
Some of these players are highly regarded first round picks in fantasy ball, others are just drifting along hoping you will pick them up so they can reach for that elusive goal of becoming a TDT.
(For the record, I know LBJ is probably going to average a triple-double this season. He is also a dick, thus gets no love)
The Case For, The Case Against: Free Throw Dumping In Round Two
Dumping FT% in the 2nd round
Over at Damn Lies and Statistics, they are having a 4 man expert mock draft (warning: roto style, may induce sleep). In their look at Round Two, a real trend sticks out. People are willing to draft FT% killers. In that specific post, they include Dwight, J Smoove, Rondo and Iguodala. Tyreke Evans might pop up as well. Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m all for drafting these players in the 2nd round (actually, this is a lie but I like to at least try and start out even handed), but this is just a look at some of the underlying reasons why people will make these decisions. Of course, try and keep in mind that in H2H leagues, it is widely assumed that it’s OK to dump a category (or two if your brave) because of the strictly mono e mono aspect relative to roto leagues.
What are some of the factors towards this trend? Well, we can start with the fact that once you get past round 1 in nba drafts, every player is going to have some deficiencies. Jason Kidd doesn’t score, Steve Nash doesn’t defend, Brandon Roy doesn’t play 82 games (this one is worse). So it’s OK that they are no good at FT%? Not quite.
The percentage categories in fantasy basketball are pretty special. While the others (points, boards, threes, blocks, steals, assists, turnovers) are all purely based on empirical totals, it is impossible go to backwards once you have accrued stats in these categories (apart from turnovers, where going forwards is going backwards, but that is a discussion for another day). With percentages, one bad day from your star can literally ruin the entire week. Think about when Kevin Durant shoots 6 from 25, instead of an average 9 from 19 performance. Those 19 missed shots in theoretical game one have created such a gulf that unless the rest of your team is made up of Gasol brothers, you can nearly kiss goodbye to the category for the week. While his FG% will average out over the course of a season, H2H is week to week, which doesn’t help you.
With FT%, this is even more important due to the disparity between players who take a large volume of free throws. While a good fantasy players who shoot 55% from the field might make 8-10 baskets a game, good players who shoot 48% will generally take a higher number. With free throws, this doesn’t occur. Let’s look at the top 5 field goal attempts vs. the top 5 free throw attempts from 2009-10.
Field Goal Attempts: Durant (794), James (768), Nowitzki (720), Wade (719), Bryant (716). Highest: James .503 – Lowest: Bryant .456
Free Throw Attempts: Durant (840), Howard (816), James (773), Wade (702), Stoudemire (632). Highest: Durant .900 – Lowest: Howard .592
Of qualified players, there are only 38 players between James and Bryant for field goal shooting while there are 129 players between Durant and Howard (and 73 between Durant and Amar’e).
So what you may ask? It’s extremely hard to overcome a bad free throw shooter relative to other categories. Other players can make up gaps from your best players in other categories, but free throws is different. Basically, the rule is that the player must have other mind blowing stats to overcome this big hole in their game.
That’s where the other side of the debate comes into it’s own. Some of these players can dominate so thoroughly in other categories that it doesn’t make one iota of difference if you lose free throws by 30% every week. Dwight Howard is one of those players. League leading in blocks and boards, plus a pretty handy FG% to boot. Yes please. Rajon Rondo is another. He is only going to get more fantasy relevance in that extremely old Boston team as the season progresses. Pick away I say. I’m not sure if Josh Smith or Andre Iguodala qualify in the same way, but they only took 5.2 attempts each game last season so who knows.
In the end, this trend seems to just be the done thing because that’s how the majority of the experts rate FT% and it’s impact on your team. I am more sceptical and probably won’t be taking any of the above players (apart from Smith if he falls far enough) in any of my drafts. Maybe this is showing my ignorance, but it is what it is.
Here are some other things which might make more sense than what you just read:
A look ahead at the possibilities for Blake Griffin this season.
Fantasy Point Guard Rankings from FantasyBasketballDaily.
Damn Lies and Statistics are into the 6th round of their 4 man mock draft, which includes Doc A from Rotoworld.
Furthermore, GMTR should have some more team previews up soon, while Jason at fBasketballBlog will have Round 7 of our Two Man Mock Draft soon.
Iggy, Crawford and T-Will highlight a solid session of NBA
Headlines
1) Andre Iguodala. The Sixers might not be winning many games recently, but Iggy has stepped it up. Today’s 33 points, 11 assists and 8 boards (4 triples, 5 steals) is just a continuation of his awesome form. In his past 5 games, he is shooting 64%, hitting 2 treys and grabbing 2.5 steals. His Yahoo O-Rank of 22 looks set to rise next season if he keeps it up. If he could shot free throws, he would be a first rounder.
2) Jamal ‘Mad Dog’ Crawford. Sometimes you might think about benching Crawford because ATL has a 3 game week with walk over opponents. Don’t do it. Ever. With J.J out, he led the Hawks with 29 points, 6 treys and 6 assists. Holy Easter Bunny. While he doesn’t do much except shoot and score, the fact that he does it better than anyone else in the league counts for something. Has to be the 6th man of the year. He is another who is set to climb the draft rankings next season.
3) Terrence Williams. I was on the T-Will bandwagon a long time ago… before I fell off it due to lackluster effort. That corner has officially been turned. Williams is showing in the late season that he can do just about anything. Today he has 14 assists (and only 2 turnovers) to go with 14 points. If given the opportunity, this man is going to make a major impact next year. He is a walking small forward double-double. When he increases his field goal percentage (when, not if), he will be the 2008 version of Richard Jefferson.
In Depth – Taj Gibson
All the fancy talk about Rookie of the Year is about Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry, which is more than understandable. What isn’t, is that there is very little talk about Gibson. While he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, he has done a few things others haven’t. He took a starting job off an established position player (Tyrus Thomas). He is still a chance to play in the playoffs. And most importantly, he has shown up to play when most required. In March, with Joakim Noah down and Thomas and Salmons shipped out, Gibson had his best month of his short career. He averaged 10+ points, 8+ boards, 1.3 blocks while shooting 51% from the field and a respectable 76% from the stripe (65% on the year). While the Bulls lost their first 9 games of March, Gibson showed he could play with the best going 9 from 14 against the Cavs and 6 of 10 against the Magic. These little signs are good for the future. In his last game, an 8 point victory over the Bobcats, he grabbed 15 boards even with Noah sitting in the paint to grab 16 of his own. The fact these two can play and gel together is good news for the Bulls and really great news for fantasy production next year. With a summer spent building on already solid fundamentals, this guy will be one to watch next year.
Stockwatch
Buy: Jose Calderon. If you look closely, you will see his struggles are over. 16 and 10, 2 triples and only one turnover. While he still can’t play defense (the above mentioned T-Will walked all over him), at least it should bring a smile to anyone who held onto him all season.
Sell: Andrew Bogut. In what I think is probably one of the saddest on-court stories on the year, Bogut suffered a probable season-ending elbow injury against the Suns today. With the Bucks cruising towards 5th place in the East against all expectations, this throws them into chaos heading into the playoffs.
Hold: Boris Diaw. You never know what you’ll get from the big frenchman (apart from the unexpected). He had 18 points to go with 7 boards and 6 assists against Chi-Town today but he one of the most frustrating players to own for fantasy due to his inconsistency, ability to turn the ball over and inability to hit the deep shots (despite always having a solid go)
Forecast
Basketball Monster says the Warriors have the 4th best schedule over the next week, which includes 4 games. When you mention that those four teams are the Raptors, T’wolves, Clippers and Wizards, it becomes downright juicy. One player in particular has become almost indispensable which is slightly amusing given Yahoo didn’t even have his photo until about 3 weeks ago. Anthony Tolliver, the former D-Leaguer and 6”9 Center is playing for big money next year. This week should cement it. Apart from perhaps the Raptors with Bosh and Bargnani, he will draw the bigger guys out of the paint, run and shoot all day. While this may or may not help the Warriors (who really knows what will happen on any given day), it will certainly be amazing for his fantasy production in the next week. As a starter he is averaging 13 points, 6 boards and 1.5 triples (nearly Bargnani numbers, expect he didn’t come with a 5th round draft pick). This week, you can expect bucket loads more of everything. In his two games against the Clippers so far, he averaged 24 points with 3 triples. Delicious. If there is one thing you can bank on in regard to the Warriors, whatever happens, it’ll be a ride.
Around the League
I may not agree with anything posted here, but it’s an interesting read. Stephen Jackson, your MVP.
And in related news, Jackson or Troy Murphy for keeper league next year? Weigh in here.
A closer look at Iggy’s numbers from today.
And a fantasy round up from GMTR.
What Thunder fans have been waiting for. And a recap of their win from a Mav’s perspective.
This sort of sums up my feelings of the Celtics. Although Bogut being out and them having a 4 seed may change that.
D-Wade is just disgustingly good.
And finally. If you are after a schedule grid, this is the best one I’ve found. While for instant results with a bit of extra, the previously mentioned Basketball Monster is the place to be.
