Here we go again….
Looks like everyone else (GMTR, FBasketballBlog, Buser, FantasyBasketball Daily) is getting back into the fantasy writing after a short (long for some, me included) break. So I’ll be joining in. The season does actually roll around pretty quick from here, it’s probably about three months until your draft day!
I don’t have anything specific planned over this period. I’m sure there will be rankings, profiles and theories amongst other things. I’ve changed the theme because the last one wouldn’t let me post more than 4 lines on the front page. This is simple, but blue is awesome and that’s all that matters.
I have also formally begun to support the New York Knicks. After a winter adventure to Madison Square Garden, I couldn’t resist. Also, god love Amar’e (and I do). So please forgive the bias which will undoubtly occur (seriously… probably for the best to skip any posts on Gallo, AntRand or STAT).
I know sometimes reading fantasy sites can be like watching grass grow after the initial analysis, but I’ll try and create some original content. I’m already sick of reading rankings which have a severe roto slant to them (D12 is a sick first round option with the uncertainty of Wade/LeBron).
That’s enough for now. Happy reading.
Unsung Player Day
I stumbled across two things this afternoon which really made my day.
The Golden State Warriors Bench was looking a little bit sad. And when I say a little bit, I mean a whole lot. Poor buggers, at least the season is over.
However more fun is this idea from With Malice. Unsung Player Day. I really don’t want enough basketball to see these sort of dudes but reading the various players who are listed made me think about my recent trip overseas and some of the basketball games I saw in in the depths of winter. While JaVale McGee has bumped his average playing time up to about 16 minutes per game this season, when I saw him in early December he was struggling to stay on the court long enough to even foul effectively. On December 2nd, he didn’t get any time at all. On December 4th, the big guy finally got his chance, playing in 5 minutes and 23 seconds of pure madness against the Raptors.
But it was more about his role in the team which impressed me. The Wizards were a pretty happy team at the time. It seemed like there were lots of jokes happening, laughing on the benches and a general sense of good times before the games started. At the center of this was JaVale McGee. Big. Tall. Pretty hopeless looking. Sam Cassell worked on his post game for five minutes in practice before seeing Brandon Haywood and moving on.
When he did get on the court, it was like the game had transformed. While the Raptors liked to run, Brandon Haywood does not. McGee on the other hand had no problems. Up and down about 20 times in his 5 minutes of fame. He even deflected a ball for a credited steal, made a basket and pumped up the crowd behind Gilbert Arenas in the 4th quarter as the Wizards were starting to fail.
Now with Haywood out of town, McGee is seeing big minutes. But judging from his numbers, he might be better suited as an unsung player, at least until his game is developed a little bit more. All the best to him (and his brother who works in Georgetown flipping burgers).
Iggy, Crawford and T-Will highlight a solid session of NBA
Headlines
1) Andre Iguodala. The Sixers might not be winning many games recently, but Iggy has stepped it up. Today’s 33 points, 11 assists and 8 boards (4 triples, 5 steals) is just a continuation of his awesome form. In his past 5 games, he is shooting 64%, hitting 2 treys and grabbing 2.5 steals. His Yahoo O-Rank of 22 looks set to rise next season if he keeps it up. If he could shot free throws, he would be a first rounder.
2) Jamal ‘Mad Dog’ Crawford. Sometimes you might think about benching Crawford because ATL has a 3 game week with walk over opponents. Don’t do it. Ever. With J.J out, he led the Hawks with 29 points, 6 treys and 6 assists. Holy Easter Bunny. While he doesn’t do much except shoot and score, the fact that he does it better than anyone else in the league counts for something. Has to be the 6th man of the year. He is another who is set to climb the draft rankings next season.
3) Terrence Williams. I was on the T-Will bandwagon a long time ago… before I fell off it due to lackluster effort. That corner has officially been turned. Williams is showing in the late season that he can do just about anything. Today he has 14 assists (and only 2 turnovers) to go with 14 points. If given the opportunity, this man is going to make a major impact next year. He is a walking small forward double-double. When he increases his field goal percentage (when, not if), he will be the 2008 version of Richard Jefferson.
In Depth – Taj Gibson
All the fancy talk about Rookie of the Year is about Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry, which is more than understandable. What isn’t, is that there is very little talk about Gibson. While he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, he has done a few things others haven’t. He took a starting job off an established position player (Tyrus Thomas). He is still a chance to play in the playoffs. And most importantly, he has shown up to play when most required. In March, with Joakim Noah down and Thomas and Salmons shipped out, Gibson had his best month of his short career. He averaged 10+ points, 8+ boards, 1.3 blocks while shooting 51% from the field and a respectable 76% from the stripe (65% on the year). While the Bulls lost their first 9 games of March, Gibson showed he could play with the best going 9 from 14 against the Cavs and 6 of 10 against the Magic. These little signs are good for the future. In his last game, an 8 point victory over the Bobcats, he grabbed 15 boards even with Noah sitting in the paint to grab 16 of his own. The fact these two can play and gel together is good news for the Bulls and really great news for fantasy production next year. With a summer spent building on already solid fundamentals, this guy will be one to watch next year.
Stockwatch
Buy: Jose Calderon. If you look closely, you will see his struggles are over. 16 and 10, 2 triples and only one turnover. While he still can’t play defense (the above mentioned T-Will walked all over him), at least it should bring a smile to anyone who held onto him all season.
Sell: Andrew Bogut. In what I think is probably one of the saddest on-court stories on the year, Bogut suffered a probable season-ending elbow injury against the Suns today. With the Bucks cruising towards 5th place in the East against all expectations, this throws them into chaos heading into the playoffs.
Hold: Boris Diaw. You never know what you’ll get from the big frenchman (apart from the unexpected). He had 18 points to go with 7 boards and 6 assists against Chi-Town today but he one of the most frustrating players to own for fantasy due to his inconsistency, ability to turn the ball over and inability to hit the deep shots (despite always having a solid go)
Forecast
Basketball Monster says the Warriors have the 4th best schedule over the next week, which includes 4 games. When you mention that those four teams are the Raptors, T’wolves, Clippers and Wizards, it becomes downright juicy. One player in particular has become almost indispensable which is slightly amusing given Yahoo didn’t even have his photo until about 3 weeks ago. Anthony Tolliver, the former D-Leaguer and 6”9 Center is playing for big money next year. This week should cement it. Apart from perhaps the Raptors with Bosh and Bargnani, he will draw the bigger guys out of the paint, run and shoot all day. While this may or may not help the Warriors (who really knows what will happen on any given day), it will certainly be amazing for his fantasy production in the next week. As a starter he is averaging 13 points, 6 boards and 1.5 triples (nearly Bargnani numbers, expect he didn’t come with a 5th round draft pick). This week, you can expect bucket loads more of everything. In his two games against the Clippers so far, he averaged 24 points with 3 triples. Delicious. If there is one thing you can bank on in regard to the Warriors, whatever happens, it’ll be a ride.
Around the League
I may not agree with anything posted here, but it’s an interesting read. Stephen Jackson, your MVP.
And in related news, Jackson or Troy Murphy for keeper league next year? Weigh in here.
A closer look at Iggy’s numbers from today.
And a fantasy round up from GMTR.
What Thunder fans have been waiting for. And a recap of their win from a Mav’s perspective.
This sort of sums up my feelings of the Celtics. Although Bogut being out and them having a 4 seed may change that.
D-Wade is just disgustingly good.
And finally. If you are after a schedule grid, this is the best one I’ve found. While for instant results with a bit of extra, the previously mentioned Basketball Monster is the place to be.
Can the Milwaukee Bucks actually make an impact in the playoffs?
All season this squad have been bucking–sorry, couldn’t resist–traditional wisdom (just take a quick peek at pre-season predictions). So let’s take a look at a couple of reasons why the Bucks can, and will, make some significant noise this season.
- Defense. It’s the biggest cliché in NBA playoff dialogue but defense becomes even more important in the playoffs. The Bucks know how to play defense. Their 6th in the league according to John Hollinger’s defensive efficiency rankings. With three athletic wing men in Delfino, Mbah a Moute and Ilyasova, they have the size and speed to cover a combination of many different types of scorers, think specifically Celtics, Magic and Hawk teams, and they have one of the best centers in the game to patrol the paint. It’s good news when you hold teams to 45% from the field but even more important? The really good defensive teams keep opponents 3P% down and the Bucks rank 7th in NBA there. You can very easily imagine Paul Pierce, Rashard Lewis or Joe Johnson going 6-19 against this Bucks team.
- The Bench. Did I hear laughter? Ridnour, Stackhouse, Ilyasova and even Kurt Thomas are having a much bigger impact that you would think. Ridnour is a solid backup point guard who provides excellent insurance for the erratic Brandon Jennings. He has seen significant minutes in the past month and has not disappointed. He is shooting a career high 47.9% from the field this season, including 39.2% from downtown, and more importantly, only commits 1.3 turnovers in his 21 minutes per game. While he struggles on defense, this is negated by his surrounding environment. Jerry Stackhouse was a bit of a joke until he turned up in Milwaukee but he brings some serious playoff experience to a team which will need it in a 7 game series. Ilyasova is one of those valuable commodities, a big with an outside shot. Watching him patrol the paint with Bogut is ghastly for opposition coaches while his ability to hang around the 3 point line then dart anywhere on the court will cause headaches.
- Away Games. While the Bucks are 15-21 away from home this season so far, things have been on the serious improve in the second half of the season. Since the start of 2010, they are 12-10 and against playoff bound teams in the East, it’s 2-2. Something clicked and the massive win on the road in Denver last week demonstrated how even against really good teams, the Bucks can get it done.
- Teamwork. Notice those impressive wins against the Nuggets and Hawks? Well what if you chuck in the fact that Andrew Bogut only had 11 points combined while Brandon Jennings played 46 of a possible 96 minutes. The bench players mentioned above make a big impact here, but more so is the ability of other players to step up. John Salmons is the man who stands out, averaging 20.5 points per game since coming across. Carlos Delfino has the ability to seriously light it up (as most fantasy owners will know all about since last December). This is a team which ranks 7th in the NBA for turnovers committed per game (13.5). It is also a team which only has a total of three players with above-average PER numbers (Bogut 20.8, Ilyasova 15.97, and Ridnour 17.86). This ranks last against other elite East teams — Boston (6), Atlanta (5), Orlando (4), and Cleveland (6). Finally, they will not be out coached in the playoffs. There is more talent in Scott Skiles’ little finger than the entire collection of teams coaches just mentioned. This will be a difference maker in at least one close game in the first round.
- Andrew Bogut. Finally shaking the label of draft bust, Bogut came to play in 2010. He is averaging career highs in points, boards, blocks, free throw percentage and committing the least amount of turnovers since his rookie year. In Skiles, he has a coach that isn’t afraid to run plays through him and in Jennings, he has a point guard who can get him the ball. While he has some issues against quality teams (he has only managed 13.7 points at 46% from the field against the East’s top four teams this season), the mere fact there is a massive, 7’0 monster in the middle at both ends makes the Bucks that much more dangerous. With his slick ability to pass (see this from the other night against the Hawks), it is difficult to double team him in the post. You give him time to find his groove in a 7 game playoff series and it will be awesome to watch.
Money. Contracts. Winning. Eeeek
All I ever hear when I watch SportsCenter and troll through numerous match reports and awe-struck journalists is how much players, especially the elite ones, want to “win a championship”. Dwyane Wade is leaving Miami because he ain’t got no help. LeBron is fleeing town because he is playing with a bunch of drop kicks. Chris Bosh can’t wait to get out of Toronto because his team gives up on him too easily. These guys want to win. And they want to win now apparently. We’ll see what actually happens, but my bet is that it’ll be more of the same. Same players, same teams. More money.
Apparently the salary cap will be about $53m next season. This means if you are a max contract sort of dude, you could be up for about $16m-$18m. Effectively, you will be taking up to (and perhaps over) a full 30% of your teams salary cap, regardless of where you play. You know how much money Dwyane Wade was on when he won he sole title? A tick over $3m.
Here is a suggestion which isn’t exactly original, but doesn’t get said enough. Greedy NBA players on max contracts isn’t a recipe for success, regardless of how good the player is. Sure, if your team is the Lakers (or the Celtics, you can crash over that salary threshold), you can buy yourself a title with some maxed out guys. But more and more teams look to be avoiding the luxury tax. We might have passed through the high point of cashed up franchises trying to buy their ‘ship home. Instead you see teams like Utah trading away pieces to save money (Ronnie Brewer). New Orleans didn’t even wait for the season to start before they offloaded Rasual Bulter. Cleveland might be throwing everything they have at it, but the majority of teams won’t, and can’t, do that.
This is why a maxed out player, while being able to pull you out of the gutter, might also do your team some damage if the actual goal is winning the most amount of games possible. Check out the Heat. They have been stashing cash away and getting rid of anything that moves funny just to try and keep Wade. But what happens if Wade does sign? It’s basically the same team as this year, plus another solid player. Sure, you will lose Jermaine O’Neal and a bunch of scrubs but where exactly is the serious improvement coming from to challenge the Magic and presumably the Cavs if they hold onto LBJ.
Cashed up stars should take a long, serious look to the future if they actually want to win. If that is truly the case, then perhaps the max contract isn’t the best thing to be signing this summer.
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