Potential WOW possibilities for fantasy 2010-11
There are always surprises in any given NBA season. Who would’ve thought last season Gerald Wallace would actually play that many games? How about rookies who actually make an impact which wasn’t happening in the past? It’s a surprise because it wasn’t expected (duh) but there are some possibilities which you can dream about and try to visualize. The following are ranked from most probable to least probable in my eyes and should be taken with the appropriate grain(s) of salt. The levels are my attempt to categorize and anyone on this list will provide a little to a lot of risk but the reward if it comes off is delicious.
“Brett Favre deciding to keep playing”: You really won’t be that surprised in this happens because it probably will, only with a shit load of ESPN coverage attached to it. LeBron James could average a triple-double. It’ll be amazing if he does, but will anyone think after the fact that he didn’t have it in him? Lots to be angry about, a renewed motivation to succeed and national coverage up the wazoo. John Wall has shown it all summer and now well into the pre-season but people still have him pegged as a 5-6th rounder most places I look (did see him in the 20s for one draft). Is it impossible to imagine him finishing in the top 20 this season with averaged close to 17 and 9 along with all the gravy? Not really. After the likes of Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry last season, you know rookies have the ability to put up the big numbers, it’s just a matter of time. That doesn’t make it any less impressive.
“Michael Jordan keeping his mouth shut until Christmas”: This is a bit less likely to happen however as the owner of a franchise, you never know. Every time I see the name Derrick Rose in the off-season, it’s always accompanied by the words “improved jump shot”. Despite this happening about every September, there is nary a shred of evidence. But surely it’s going to arrive one day? You can’t shoot 1000 shots a day and regress. Well, maybe you can, but not if you have Rose’s ability. I’m not believing this until I see it, but if you wanna go out on a limb, this is the last facet of his game which will transform him into a fantasy monster. Anthony Randolph must be happy for a new home but he has some stiff competition for minutes in NYC which is a rarity. With Amar’e manning the power forward role and Turiaf/Mozgov chewing up minutes at Center, it’s going to be interesting to see where he fits in. He has a history of not living up to the hype but on sheer athleticism he will get his shot. You’ll need to grab him before #60 I reckon in most leagues despite him being a complete 50/50 at this stage. Elton Brand is not having the same about of hype. People got burned bad last year by punting on him and it seems like no-one is ready to trust him. With an average draft rank at the moment of 88.7 (yahoo leagues), it’s not like you have to reach for him. But with Coach Collins looking to beef up his role and re-establish him as a go to man, it’s not like it’s a totally crazy pick. He has history of performing and while he is over 30, I can see a lot of upside relative to that average pick.
“The 0-5 49ers clinch their division by New Years Eve”: It’s amazing to think that this is an actual possibility but that’s just how bad the NFC West is this year (sorry for non-NFL fans). This isn’t even the worst category! Well, you might cringe at some of the names coming up but I really think there is a 20-30% chance of them hitting the big time (again) and dominating for long stretches of time. Vince Carter is not the guy he used to be. He is wasting shots, turning the ball over and doesn’t know how to be the crunch time scorer Orlando really lacks. But that said, he can still put the ball in the hoop when he tries, can pass a ball and chip in all around the court. If his motivation is high, if Orlando have it’s groove on from the start of the season AND if they are as pissed off about the Heat as they tell everyone, then Carter is going to be a nice addition. People are really ripping on him (and deservedly so) and he is in free fall in most draft lists. But you don’t just lose talent, it just rests dormant until the right time. I’m not expecting this to work out well but if it does, Carter will be a prominent piece on many fantasy rosters which end up winning their respective comps. Some people don’t care about contract years. Silly fools. Andrei Kirilenko is coming into his contract year and needs to perform if he is going to get another payday. The dude can’t rely on his body anymore and he is never going to average those past insane 5+ combined STL/BLKs yet he still holds value. Obviously a lot depends on his body. I can see him slotting onto this Jazz team though like a glove. He doesn’t have the pressure to score a bunch of points (D-Will, Jefferson will be the main options) while still being surrounded by fairly weak defensive players (or below average rebounders). I say AK has that small window to make a big splash at some stage during the season, stringing together some pretty impressive weekly totals. Andrew Bynum is probably a top 3 player on ‘Do Not Draft’ lists at the moment. It’s painful to own him. Week after week, his potential is there in flashes but the amount of games he missed or plays very limited minutes kills owners every matchup. Yet there is this inescapable feeling I get in my bones about him. He is so young, so talented and so freakin’ tall. He is still the future of the Lakers if they want him to be. I don’t have a very high opinion of his body being able to stay connected in all the right places….. but. It’s always the but. The potential is basically limitless. Plus, you can grab him in Round 9-10 in most leagues these days because of his history. I’m not advocating, just dreaming.
“Landing on the Hudson River…. when it’s frozen”: This will not happen unless divine intervention occurs on the basketball court. Still, if it does happen, just sit back and admire because you won’t be able to do anything else. I have always had this crazy fantasy which sits at the back of my head whenever I see Dwight Howard mentioned. Secretly, he knows how to hit free throws. He is just waiting to unleash it because he is such a stand up bloke and doesn’t want to destroy morale in the league by being so utterly dominant. Now I know this is outlandish and, to be frank with myself, pretty stupid on many levels. But if I can teach my under 12 kids to shoot free throws, then one day, Howard is going to wake up and be able to hit free throws. He just has to. It’s like gravity or some shit. It doesn’t have to make sense but there are a whole bunch of laws which only really smart people understand. Getting a bit off topic, but the one thing which gives me the shits more than anything about professional basketball players is not being able to hit their free throws! There is no-one stopping you, no-one abusing you. Just you and the basket. If you have to take 5000 per day over the off-season, then you do it. One person who can hit free throws and is over 7 foot is Yao Ming. Now it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Yao didn’t play a game last year and has walking disaster written all over him this year (limiting minutes, no back to backs, lots of support around him). How much is too much to ask for.. 55 games? 65? 70+? I’m not sure but if I see him anywhere near a draft spot around round 9, I know I’ll be there is a hurry because if everything does go right (and I realise I’m living in a fantasy here), he is going to provide first round value. %’s, points, boards, blocks. There is not much better than that. Perhaps my optimism is blinding me as I walk down towards th sunset yet I care not for at the moment, as I am blissfully unaware of the dangers ahead. All I see is a 1.37% chance of an 82 game season which draws me in, closer and closer.
New Fantasy Pastures: Leandro Barbosa and the Toronto Raptors
I was trying to produce something super fancy just now to amaze people but the last hour of my life was lost in a simple coding mistake. It’ll have to wait. Instead, let’s look keep looking at a few individual players. While Pau Gasol didn’t far too well in our attempt at character assassination, we are going to become a bit more positive and check out Leandro Barbosa who in the summer has shifted from the fantasy friendly beaches of Phoenix to the chilly shores of Toronto.
He may not be as fast as he once was, but things are definitely going to improve for LB and the Raptors.
Barbosa has always been able to score the ball, especially as his whole NBA career has been with the Suns. At his peak, Barbosa was a FreeDarko favorite who transcended the game. In 2006-07 he averaged 20 points, 4 assists and 2.6 threes. This was his high point (and the Suns) and since then, there has been a lot left to be desired. So much so, that last season he was pretty invisible, playing in 44 games but only managing 18 minutes and 9 points per game. This had much to do with the build up of young talent at the Suns such as Dragic and Dudley as his injuries which wouldn’t seem to leave him alone. Should fantasy minds be thinking he is a super injury risk after missing 38 games last season and 12 the season before that? Well he is playing in the FIBA World Champs next month and just yesterday put in a pretty solid effort against the Australian team (29 minutes, 14 points /2 threes). The campaign for the national team should actually put owners at ease as it puts some playing time into his game and ensures he should be ready for the NBA come October. It worked for Dwyane Wade in 2008 and there is no reason why it can’t work for Leandro in 2010.
But will the move to Toronto actually be any good for his fantasy game? We hear a lot about the Raptors and their inability to do much at all. Apart from Chris Bosh and sometimes Andrea Bargnani, not much happens north of the border. Jose Calderon is hot then so very cold. Hedo couldn’t make it work. Lots of bit players split stats (Jack, DeRozen, Johnson) but never are able to make a solid contribution which is worth anything other than a waiver wire pick up. They did have the 5th most points in the league last season, but that is very deceptive as their pace factor was a mid range 13th. They rank last in defense which is a serious disgrace when teams like the Wizards and Nets are around. From this, we can pretty conclusively draw that there is no real ‘Toronto’ factor at work unless it is a detrimental one.
However, the optimist within me really likes Barbosa this season. He should be the starting two guard but can always be the 6th man like he was at the Suns. The Raptors do get the ball up and down the floor as witnesses with their scoring. Calderon and Jack aren’t exactly leading the way, so there should also be times where Barbosa becomes the general on the floor. He has shown in the past he can pass, but it’s questionable if he wants to play that role. I can see more than a few highlight reels appearing involving him and either Weems or DeRozen as those kids have some serious hops and with the Brazilian Blur flying down the wings, at least the Toronto crowd might get a little excited at times. LB is not going to set the world on fire but he is going to make an impact. I’d pencil him in for 14-15 points, 3.5 assists and a solid source of threes. He will also chip in with steals and has a pretty decent FT% but only gets to the line max 3 times per game. It’s not going to blow your mind but there is also the chance he thrives in Toronto and becomes a serious player. God knows the Raps are in need of some help and icons. And if nothing else, when you draft him in the appropriate round, you can share with your friends this link, one of the funniest things I think I have ever seen.
Others aren’t so keen on him. GMTR says “Expect Barbosa to average in the neighborhood of 25-27 minutes a game with about 15 points with 1.5 threes a game”. FantasyBasketballDaily, “He was traded to Toronto, but finds himself in a crowded guard rotation with Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Linas Kleiza and DeMar DeRozan”. I think he will play 30+ minutes and really settle into life alongside some pretty average players. He is quick and can do his own thing.
Draft range: 62 (earliest) – 90 (latest, only if you play in a league which thinks missing 10 games is akin to playing for the Clippers)
Darren Collison Just Became Liquid Gold
There have already been many fantasy reactions to the Pacers/Hornets/Rockets/Nets deal which went down last night. Fantasy Hoopster thinks Roy Hibbert is a big winner, Fantasy Knuckleheads believes it pushes Grangers value even higher, while there is green, yellow and red all over the page at fBasketballBlog (even Josh McRoberts gets a mention!). But while everyone seems to like the move for Mr Collison, I don’t get the impression this is going to really rocket him up many ranking boards to the level of Russell Westbrook or even Devin Harris. This might be a bit harsh as I haven’t seen any numbers attached to him draft wise, yet the excitement that was around for the David Lee trade doesn’t seem to be replicating in this case. Is this fair?
Collison was quite a sensation last season. The 21st pick in the draft out of UCLA, he ended up on the Hornets as an afterthought for backing up Chris Paul. When Paul went down, Collison stepped up. Despite averaging 4.1 turnovers per game as a starter, this was offset by the gaudy numbers elsewhere. 18.8 points, 9.1 assists, 3.5 boards, 1 three, 1.4 steals and seriously impressive shooting percentages – 48.5% and 85.2%. Remember, this wasn’t just for 5 or 10 games. This was a data set of 37, playing over 40 minutes a night. Sorry if you think otherwise, but those are late second round numbers in my book for a point guard.
Do I think those numbers will be put in Indiana? Don’t be stupid. On the New Orleans team minus CP3, he quickly became the first option on offense, with Marcus Thornton providing help on the perimetre and David West helping out inside. With the Pacers, he will be lucky to be the primary number two option, behind Danny Granger. Granger has been doing it all nearly on his own and last season resorted to just bombing away from distance. He doesn’t need to do that anymore, but he will see just as much of the ball. Probably just in better looks. Collison will also have to involve Roy Hibbert as much as possible as the Pacers look to develop the big guy now that Troy Murphy has disappeared. Plus, the Pacers have Hansbrough, Dunleavy, Stevenson, Rush and George who will be in the rotation at various points and need their touches. Despite all this, Collison should be the second option.
With that established, what type of production do we expect in Indiana and is it worth getting a little but more excited about? If we account for a substantial increase in output from Roy Hibbert (11.7 points last season) and even a touch more scoring from Granger as he comes into the season hopefully fully healthy (24.1 ppg in 2009-10), we still have a lot of room to move. Murphy dropped 14.6 points per game last season. Some of this will go to Hibbert, but they play a very different style of game (outside softy vs. inside hard man). I’ll say Hibbert peaks at 15 points per game this season. Granger should return to his best, which was 26.8 ppg in 2008-09. So that leaves about 9 Troy Murphy points (as the second scoring option on a team). We’ll throw in Earl Watson’s 8.0 points as a starter as well. That’s 17 points. Now, using my very non-mathematical logic, let’s add another 5 points because Collison has shown he is a pimping player and much better than Troy Murphy or Earl Watson. 22 points. To be fair, we need to take away points for those others mentioned before. So minus 5 points for those guys to split between them in addition to their averages last season. That leaves 17 points. Not a bad start.
Assists. At the Hornets, who play at the 15th quickest pace factor in the league, Collison averaged 9+ game with fellow starters Thornton, Peja, West and Okafor. At the Pacers, who last season played at the 2nd quickest pace factor in the league, our boy will line up with Dahntay Jones, Granger, Hansbrough (possibly) and Hibbert. The pace factor is near 5 possessions higher per game and I will subjectively assert that the starting line up’s are about even (Granger is far superior to West, while the other Hornets probably outrank the other Pacers by a small margin). I don’t think he will play 40 minutes+ per game at the Pacers, so that is a negative in the assist column. After summing all that together, the assists should come out at about 8-9 per game depending largely on how Collison and Granger connect with each other.
Therefore we are looking at potentially a 17/8 type of guy, who can also knock down the three and with the higher pace factor, should push his steals up towards 2+ per game. Not bad numbers at all. In fact, they are damn impressive.
Of course, it’s easy to speculate on stuff like this and then see it all come crashing down in flames when the actual season starts thanks to poor chemistry or an inability to carry that kind of form throughout an entire 82 game season. But if you like a point guard who scores, dishes, provides other tasty extras and you like to gamble a little bit, Collison in the late 3rd to early 4th round sounds about right to me. People inevitably sleep a little bit on players when they are in new situations but all the signs point to a very productive season for the newest Pacer.
PS: I recognise the nature of my analysis might not be ‘scientific’ enough for some people. However remember that this is not a science. No-one predicted that Steph Curry would be first round talent last season and some people were even sceptical on Durant in the top 5. This is my personal best guess on the situation.
Stephen ‘Fair Dinkum’ Curry
In a thread over the ‘the RX forum’, there is a post from a guy who took part in a recent RotoWorld Mock Draft for their magazine. It’s very good reading and I would recommend reading it in full for anyone interested in how drafting works for the ‘experts’. However just towards the end, the question is raised. Should Stephen Curry be ranked in the first round, and then, should he be ranked above Kobe Bryant? As Curry single handedly defeated my fantasy team on the last day of the season in 09-10, this question intrigues me. I have said before that I would be willing to take him in the top 5, but this position changes every time I re-think it.
The biggest thing about Curry for me is not his ability to put up stats, but the total unpredictability of what will occur this season. For young, up and coming players in their sophomore year, the gold standard has become Kevin Durant. Here are his rookie year stats followed by his second season.
1st season: 20.3 points (43% on 17.1 attempts, 87.3%FT on 5.6 attempts), 0.7 threes, 4.4 boards, 2.4 assists, 1 steal, .9 blocks, 2.9 turnovers
2nd season: 25.3 points (47.6% on 18.8 attempts, 86.3%FT on 7.1 attempts), 1.3 threes, 6.5 boards, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals, .7 blocks, 3.0 turnovers
That is some jump. However Durant was a player in a unique situation. He was a superstar in his own right and did not have teammates to defer to. I believe Curry is in very much the same boat. This Warriors team is already his. Monta Ellis is playing second fiddle (when not crashing his moped), while David Lee will slot right in and do as directed. The rest of the team is made up of D-Leagues and scrubs.
Curry started off as a timid player, unable to find his groove. In November 2009, he only played 29 minutes per game, succumbing to the Don Nelson game theory model of coaching. He shot 41% from the field, scored less than 10 points per game and had an assist to turnover ratio of nearly 2:1. Yet as the season wore on, even Nelson was forced to admit that this team would eventually end up as Curry’s. In the final eight games of the season, his limitless potential as a fantasy prospect bore fruit. While the Warriors did often play with only 6 or 7 players, Curry showed what could be glimpses of the future. 26 points, 8.1 assists, 4.3 threes (!), 6.4 boards and 2.6 steals per game. While this was a phenomenal stretch of play which will not be repeated at length this season, it does demonstrate that in the right situation, Curry has a place in the very top tier of fantasy players. Much like Durant was under valued in each of his first three seasons fantasy wise (he always out performed his average draft rank), Curry might well be the same, despite most people having him in the first round.
Google Image search result page two for Monta Ellis. Oddly fitting.
In relation to specific question posed about Kobe, there are some obvious key points of different. You know exactly what you are getting with Kobe (25/5/5 with extras kicked in). This isn’t the case with Curry and the Warriors system. The team has new owners, a coach who hasn’t done well since 2006 and a young core. If Nelson leaves or gets fired, Curry loses a lot of value very quickly. This won’t happen with Kobe. Conversely, Kobe is most probably going to sit/rest towards the end of the season. He has a history of being banged up but still playing on regardless. This has to stop eventually as he is entering his 15th season. He only played 25 games from February through to April in 2010.
At this point in time, I’m leaning more and more towards taking Curry above Bryant. His upside is too much to pass up, and the gambler within me says yes. He has a chance to be historic for a sophomore, especially if he starts the upcoming season as he finished the previous one.
How much does it hurt? Chris Bosh moves on
From what I’ve read recently, most people will still be happy to take LeBron James as a number two pick, while Dwyane Wade is no slouch either, coming in at between six and eight. However, Chris Bosh has gone from first round lock to barely scrapping into the second round. Is this a fair assumption? Let’s check it out.
In Toronto, Bosh earned his fantasy meal ticket primarily because of three things. In 2009-10, he dropped 24 points a game, added 10.8 boards and had excellent percentages (.516FG on 16.6 attempts and .797FT on 8.4 attempts). The other categories (blocks, three’s, assists, steals, TO) were all pretty stock standard for a PF/C, so let’s leave them alone for the moment.
Not the first option anymore, but still a solid fantasy player (Image from SLAM 8/25/08)
How will these numbers move in Miami? Two levels here, easy to predict and hard to predict. Easy first. The percentages are safe. Unless he forgets how to hit 18 foot jumpers and free throws, and if he did, Dwyane Wade would not be a happy camper, then these numbers are if anything going to rise. When you have Wade and James giving you the ball, hogging all the attention from the defense, it’s a safe bet to think that FG% will nudge up by 2-3%. Locked it. Furthermore, opposing teams are going to be in all sorts of foul trouble from the 2nd quarter onwards vs. the Heat, especially big men who get tangled up when the driving to the hoop party really begins. That means, that while the opportunity to create freebies on shots will decrease personally for Bosh presuming he gets a reduced number of looks, it will be easier to score and opportunities will come in non-shooting situations. Thus, those 8.4 attempts might fall a tad, but nothing to be worried about (in the 7-8 range).
To the problems. Rebounds. 10.8 is a lot of boards. The Raptors played a pretty up tempo basketball style, with lots of opportunities to score. The Heat were slowly last season in possessions per game, but should get faster this year. That said, Wade and James are both high rebounding players and the addition of Big Z is not going to help matters either. In Toronto, Bosh only had Andrea Bargnani to grab a pathetic 6 boards a game. Despite only starting in 6 of his 63 games last season, Z still managed 5.4 boards per game. So when we take into account these factors, it is more than reasonable to think that Bosh might only average between 7.5 and 8.5 boards a game, which is a pretty substantial hit and puts him on a level with a whole bunch of pretty average big men such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden (who only needed 23 mins/g to achieve it). If your chasing quality boards in the second round, I would look past Bosh and perhaps at David Lee or Gerald Wallace.
For me, scoring is much more a mystery. 16.6 field goal attempts per game seems like a lot. But given the context of the Raptors, it really isn’t. There wasn’t another player chucking up that many and for a dominant offensive big man, it’s a little disappointing. At Miami, Bosh will be the only inside presence, much like at the Raptors, but he prefers those dinky jump shots which he is very good at. It really depends how teams decide to play the Heat. With double teams, Bosh will get more looks. However he is going to be the third option on this team, no if’s or butt’s about it. 13 attempts per game, at a slightly higher percentage should still create 20+ per night and I think this will happen. The Heat will be lucky to get 30 points from players apart from their Big Three (Chalmers, Miller, Z, Jones, Haslem, Arroyo etc), so even if Wade and James drop 25 each, Bosh still needs to play his role, which will be substantial.
Finally, I think that Bosh will be the one to stay on the floor a little bit longer than others when games are over or in junk time. There is nothing scientific behind this, just a feeling. Bosh is clearly a good enough player to carry teams for stretches, as we saw in Toronto, so this will happen in Miami. Why not make that time to rest Wade and James? It makes sense and even if it’s just for 2-3 minutes per night averaged out over the season, that’s good for a bump in stats.
In the end, I think we are looking at approximately this: 21 points, 52.5% and 80.5%, 7.9 boards, with the other standards thrown in (2.9 assists, 1+ block and less than 2.5 turnovers). If you like your big men efficient, lean and mean, that’s good enough for the second round in my books. If you prefer players who dominate multiple categories but give up in others (Howard for example), then you will probably not be a fan this season.
And Toronto fans? You still have the former number one pick, the Italian Stallion himself, Andrea “Man On Campus” Bargnani.
Things are looking up for the Raptors
