Fantasy Basketball 2010: The First Round Dilemma Pt. 3
In this final part of our series, I’m going to glance at something many people shy away from because it looks too ghastly and unworkable. He’s heavy and he ain’t my brother… Dwight Howard ladies and gentlemen! In the Yellow corner, we have Pau Gasol, who despite being beaten over the head by my big stick when I was angry last week, has kindly agreed to show up again (for more beating). After reading all those Roto biased lists around the mainstream fantasy sites, you might already be blinking. How can we compare these two? Well, let me tell you. A well constructed team built around Howard will wipe the floor with most of the crud other people try and compete with. This is Head to Head ONLY. Remember that before you start ranting.
(Please note that this post is being written to this song on loop, so excuse me for the bad language)
Let me put it out right out there. I’ve never drafted Dwight Howard and might never do so. However, this isn’t about that. This is about if someone held a gun to your head and said “Howard or Gasol?”, what your answer would be (after clarifying that it wasn’t Marc Gasol because that is sensible). H2H fantasy basketball allows you do dump categories. Categories. Plural. My advice with Howard? Give yourself a competitive advantage and dump TOs along with FT%. This means instead of worrying about people cramping your style with their 3.5 turnovers per game (hello Monta Ellis), you can pick people well before other people even start considering them. Let me explain. You want to pick Stephen Jackson but you know people will laugh at you if you do it before the 4th round. However if you take out his FT% and his TOs, Jackson was ranked #34 last season. So go ahead and take him with your late 3rd round pick. No-one else is willing because he doesn’t conform to their standards of what ’3rd round value’ is, but he suits you perfectly with Dwight.
I know Dwight, I can't even believe we are debating this...
So, now we’ve established the way forward after we pick Howard, why should we pick Howard? Because quite simply, he has been a top 3 Fantasy H2H player in the last two seasons if you remove his FT% and TOs. That’s a pretty good reason right there. With league leading numbers in both boards and blocks, together with a pretty wicked FG%, you can literally bank those categories as long as you don’t pick like David Khan for the remainder of the draft. In some unsolicited advice, here are a list of players who go great with Howard – Rajon Rondo, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Stephen Jackson, Tyrus Thomas (god love him), Tim Duncan, Andrew Bogut, Rudy Gay, Trevor Ariza, Antwan Jamison, Lamar Odom, Blake Griffin and my personal favourite, Andris Biedrins. Sure, most of them are big guys who have trouble with their FT% but you can also trade target guards who are apparently having trouble with their stroke and steal them with lower value players than would otherwise be necessary. Drafting Howard is a great option. But that’s only Part A. Part B is where it all succeeds or collapses in a massive pile of horse crud. On Howard personally, can I just say I also think you will see an uptick in his FT% this season, per offsetting his absolute negative status as a FT% killer. Further, his offensive game gets better every off season and eventually he is going to pull it all together. Remember: He is 25 years old and hasn’t even entered the prime of his career.
I’ve actually tried very hard to like Pau Gasol. He played for years on a pretty average franchise. He did it with esteem and pride. He was not a dick when it came to winning. But despite this, I just don’t like the guy. Call me a hater, but that’s just the way I am. Recognising these facts, I’ll try to stick to the objective truth.
My favourite Pau Gasol picture ever.
Essentially, my argument boils down to this (in the post below about Pau Gasol):
Over the past three seasons with the Lakers, his FG% has steadily dropped from a high of 59% to 53% last season.
You know what I don’t like? A PF/C whose FG% drops consistently over 150 games with the same club. It’s just not very nice. What can we expect this year? Slightly less of everything. Gasol has a career average rebound per game of 9.0. Last season, he averaged 11.3. Yes he did play very well, but can we expect this again from a man who turned 30 in the offseason? Perhaps. But perhaps not. Can we expect his points to be maintained at such a high rate while the Lakers try and develop Andrew Bynum, who only just turned 23? Perhaps. Perhaps not. Will he play more than 75 games after missing 35 over the past three seasons? You know the rest by now. This is what is clear: Gasol is a first round draft pick in the vast majority of leagues. He is a very good fantasy player. He scores, boards, blocks and passes better than any other big man plus he is efficient. But with Gasol, at least in my eyes, you are unsure about his ability to turn it on, week after week, in a fashion that I want my big man to.
The end result? If you are not willing to punt categories, then Gasol is your man by a country mile. However Dwight Howard can be a very successful fantasy pick, even more so if you surround him by other players whose value increases by ignoring their faults. Relatively, it’s riskier – but hot damn, it’s exciting.
Endnote: I realise by putting in a photo with Pau Gasol and a Llama, I am probably not doing him justice. Sue me. If you want a Pau Gasol love blog, you can read all about it here.
C’mon man!
Real quick. ESPN and Yahoo have updated their draft lists and I want to make some mocking observations from my high horse.
I don’t know what Greg Oden did to the ESPN fantasy basketball guys, but he is languishing at #148. Sure, they might not have appreciated his special pictures in their editorial meeting, but this is craziness. If Oden isn’t off your board by #110, your league is adverse to being good. I’ve said it. There you go. Everyone knows he is a risk of breaking a leg again, but if last season with Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry taught us anything at all, it’s that risks are worth taking, especially in the 12th round. I do like T-Will and Anthony Morrow moving up, kudos and Darren Collison at #36 seems a tad high but a gamble, and I love that. We still don’t know if this is for Roto or H2H, or the categories. Please ESPN overlord, grace us with your knowledge.
Yahoo have gone with the old, chuck 4 people’s opinions in together and hope it makes a sensible list. I don’t know if this works particularly well. Example: When Mr Behrens (who I always pronounce in my head Biedrins) picks Derrick Rose at number 18 (I love Rose but 18?!) and everyone else leaves him out of their top 40. Who do I trust here? Anyway, their list is based on 9 cat Roto leagues which explains Howard’s position at #34. Other oddities. Biedrins has Amar’e at #22, Matt Buser has a man crush on Jason Kidd (#16) and Brandon Furston believes Brook Lopez is first round material. Overall, I think it’s a good representation of views and an interesting read. The best bit is that they dig into the top 30 of each position.
Fantasy Basketball 2010: The First Round Dilemma Pt. 2
Last week we checked out the argument for D Wade or Steph Curry in the first round. Given that I then went ahead and trashed my own advice in my first mock draft of the season (taking Curry at 9 and watching Wade go at 10), I don’t know how much stock you should put into the whatever ends up on the lines below. This time round, I think we’ll go with Danny Granger and Kobe Bryant.
Imma put it right out there and say on past form, it’s pretty hard to split these two. Kobe gives you better points, assists and FG%, while Granger has better threes, FT%, blocks and turnovers. The difference it split nearly down the line on boards and steals. Kobe has shown a capacity to play more games per season and that’s why he has tended to be a higher draft pick in the past. But here at weaksidehelp we are all about the future. Kobe was 32 last week. Granger is a relative punk, at just 27. Both first round picks? Yeah OK. But who do you want on your team this season?
Kobe Bryant has never been the fantasy darling of the NBA world. If it wasn’t KG hogging the limelight, it was LeBron James. Now it’s Kevin Durant. Bryant might be the toughest SOB on the court every night but his fantasy production is more akin to a reliable old clock, rather than knockout boxer who lands the massive blows. After playing every game of the 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons, his broken finger gave him grief last year and he missed 9 games. However the most worrying sign for mine is that despite playing 4.6% more time per game last season than the season before, his stats flatlined. I know Kobe ain’t no standard Shooting Guard, but my senses start sensing when a shooters FG% dips, their 3FG% dips together with a significant increase in turnovers (0.6 more per game). Given the increase in playing time, there should have been a bigger jump in points (0.2), boards (0.2), assists (0.1) and steals (0.1) per game. With his usage up but production stagnant, it’s a nasty sign that the efficiency meter has been switched and the dreaded curse of 1000+ games has set in. I’m not going to write him off and I would still prefer 25/5/5 than a kick in the face, but at the same time, I’m actually worried that his form will continue to slide for fantasy purposes. Steve Blake will be running the point with flair. Matt Barnes will relieve pressure on the other end. In my eyes, it all points to Kobe still being Kobe, but just at a slightly reduced rate and a slightly reduced efficiency. There should be minimum 5 other players ahead of him on draft boards and then there are a whole bunch of 50/50 calls which will swing depending on the individual.
Danny Granger needs to learn how to stay on the court. This wouldn’t even be a discussion if Granger had managed to play 75+ games in the last two seasons. But the fact is, he has missed 35 games over that span of time. That’s a bunch of games to miss as many a fantasy owner will tell you (lesson: if you hear the words “When I took Granger at #4 ahead of Durant last season…”, switch off because the idiot doesn’t know what they are talking about). His reputation is soft as butter. That said, he has a new point guard who actually knows what to do (see you later Earl Watson), Troy Murphy has departed for greener pastures and the young turks of Hibbert, Hansborough and Rush have developed a little more. All of these things point to the Pacers being more competitive this year which I think means good things for his production. No more 4th quarter benchings. Granger becomes the man when it’s tight, which should be more often. His FG% rockets up because he isn’t playing with crud and doesn’t resort to bombing7.1 threes per game (!), basically giving up. I think Granger will be 26/6 this season, with 2.5+ threes, and a real threat for 2.5+ steals/blocks. If his turnovers stay where they are (2.5) and his percentages nudge up, it’s all gravy. Obviously by now you realise I am picking Granger over Kobe for my drafts but let me finish with this.
The answer to this question really sums up what sort of person you are when you play fantasy basketball. You have two choices with pretty similar outcomes statistically based. One has more upside but comes packaged with the greater risk (Granger) while the other has been producing the same high standard for a long time and even factoring in a slight decrease, is still great value at the right spot. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone taking Kobe over Granger but it probably does mean you are slightly conservative with your drafting and don’t like to have any fun (that’s a joke people, chill out). If you take Granger, you are basically a sucker for punishment. You know he misses a bucketload of games but you crave that challenge. Good luck to you my friend.
Not as good as the one in four months time – NBA Draft Day 2010
In the past month, I must have read about 3000 mock drafts. In the past week? At least 15 draft recaps (none better than ShamSports). However, all of this stuff is only on the periphery for me. Sure, real teams are being heavily impacted by the events of the draft, but what does it really mean for me and my fantasy team? There are normally only 3-5 rookies who will be relevant for most fantasy leagues over the stretch of the season, but many more who will make appearences on rosters for brief stints of time (see Toney Douglas, Omri Casspi, Taj Gibson, not Hasheem Thabeet…). So, so random thoughts from watching the draft via twitter and the ridiculous number of live chats which were loaded on my screen.
TOP PICKS
John Wall (PG): Will be no good for your fantasy team this year. Normally I really like go to rookies who you can grab pretty deep but not point guards. Think turnovers. Think field goal percentage. This isn’t Stephen Curry rocking up at the Warriors or even a polished Tyreke Evans. Wall will be time sharing with Gilbert and Hinrich which is bad news. Brandon Jennings lite, with a bigger drop off before Christmas. Yeah. I went there.
Good for: Assists, Steals, Attention
Suits: A fantasy team willing to gamble, take early and pray.
Evan Turner (SG): The Philly offense is terrible. But apparently this guy can make magic happen in the half court set unlike anyone else on the ‘Sixers (not hard) so expect something. How much though? With Iggy getting his looks, Spencer Hawes bricking up shots and Jrue Holiday about to ‘break out’, Turner might find it hard to initially settle in. However, unlike most rookies, he should only get better with time. NBAdraft say he compares to Brandon Roy. Boring, injured and overrated? Nahhh. If you think he can muster up 18 points per game, he is worth a latter round gamble as he should be in the top two performing rookies this season, stat-wise.
Good for: Points, Boards, Blocks, Destroying Iggy’s fantasy value
Suits: A fantasy team which is built around all the standard things
Derrick Favors (PF): Nickname, sexual. Zing. I have never heard so many people call a 6’10, 245lb dude ‘cat like’, ‘speed demon’ or ‘cheetah’. It must mean something. That said, he is going to be going up and down for the team that managed 12 wins last year. That has Devin Harris running the show. Plus, I saw Bro-Lo in the flesh last season and that dude gets angry when the ball doesn’t come his way. Maybe that’ll change if the Nets start winning, but I’d watch out if I were Favors. Lastly, ‘potential’, a word used to describe Favors incessantly for the past two months, does nothing for your fantasy team.
Good for: Boards, Blocks, drafting in 2013-14
Suits: Taking in the late rounds if you draft Brook Lopez early
Wesley Johnson (SF): All that clap-trap about being 23 years old is mute for our purposes. Can Johnson do something that will make him worth the gamble at the rear end of a draft? Yes. He knows how to shoot from deep. In Kurt Rambis’ “triangle offense”, he should be able to spot up shoot. Kevin Love knows how to set a screen and Jonny Flynn hates shooting the ball. Viola! He is not going to light it up, but would you rather an unknown prospect with your late pick or Tayshaun Prince, who will only disappoint you with his extra-large forehead and inability to resemble anything like his 2004-05 form despite your Piston’s mad friend swearing he is about to have his second coming. Will probably go undrafted in most leagues but keep an eye on very early before someone else snaps up.
Good for: Three’s, steals, not being a point guard for the Wolves (automatic success)
Suits: Not well (check out his draft kit) but seriously, a worthy bench addition to a small ball team.
DeMarcus Cousins (C): NBA Comparison – Eddy Curry. Umm. OK. Not going to happen. But neither are the stats being thrown around by some people. 15 and 10? If this happens, Cousins becomes 5th round draft pick but no-one is going to take him there. Then there are the other issues, work rate, temper tantrums, which might pop up from time to time. When you throw in the fact his back court buddies include Carl Landry, Sam Dalembert and Jason Thompson, it’s tempting to write him off completely. He is a legitimate “Anything is Possible” fantasy player and a lot of guys love to draft that way. I don’t think I will, but I’m not going to stop you.
Good for: Points, Boards, Blocks
Suits: A fantasy team built for power
Greg Monroe (PF): I know I just skipped a dude from the draft, but Ekpe Udoh is about to enter the same space which Ant-Rand has occupied for the past two seasons, so I think it’s safe to miss him. Monroe on the other hand is a monster and probably landed on a roster which will make his fantasy impact significant. The Pistons need more than the Happy Swede to succeed and the now Georgetown alum will do nicely. He can pass the ball very well but doesn’t attack the ring very much. A limited offensive impact can be expected this season. I watched Georgetown twice last season in the flesh and he was the definition of a graceful bigman. Whatever that means.
Good for: Boards, blocks, assists (relative for a big guy)
Suits: Anyone who loves drafting Tim Duncan, albeit with about 30% of the production this season
WAIVER WIRE FODDER
Larry Sanders (PF): When Andrew Bogut goes down this season, Sanders is the rookie you run for on the free agent list. 2.6 blocks last season in College and with other Bucks hardly the stuff on metal on the inside, he will at some stage be a gold mine of rebounds and blocks. Yahoo states “very raw offensively” which translates comes from the Ben Wallace (2009-10) school.
Kevin Seraphin (PF): Andray Blatche just injured himself and is out for 3 months. Couple this with his unexplored history as a smack talking fool who doesn’t know when to shut up, and Seraphin will get his chances on the court this season. Similar to Sanders, blocks and boards are the key here as he can’t score. Even if he could, I’m sure John Wall and Gilbert will make sure he doesn’t get the chance.
Eric Bledsoe (PG): Heading to the Clippers to back up Baron Davis, who is past his prime and seems to decline with every season. Hard to believe he still has 3 years to go on his contract. Davis takes games off, gets grumpy with team mates and is slow. Bledsoe will not impact at all during the first months of the season, but I bet he sees game time by February.
There will of course be many others. Anyone backing up Kevin Martin, Kevin Garnett, Danny Granger, Brandon Roy, Devin Harris or Caron Bulter is worth keeping an eye on.
For a bunch of links to other draft related stuff, GMTR has a comprehensive roundup.
To come: A look at which already rostered players were most seriously affected by draft picks and trades which have already occurred this off-season.
Joakim Noah and Nene, where to from here?
Two men with a shared past are having an impact on the post season in one way or another. Joakim Noah has a big mouth but can ball to back it up. Nene just let’s his basketball do the talking and is an important piece if the Nuggets want to progress past the Jazz. Both were lottery picks which at some stage belonged to the Knicks before being on traded. Today both played and have put up some decent numbers in their respective two playoff games to date. From a fantasy perspective, I think it will be very interesting as to who will be drafted first in season 2010-11. Let’s break it down.
While Noah couldn’t find a way past LeBron and the Cavs today, he did manage to do his thing. This includes 25 points, 13 boards, a steal, a block and solid percentages. That’s basically the big guy in a nutshell. He is the heart and soul of the Chicago team, and while not it’s best player, deserves some serious fantasy love next season. HIs per36 numbers this year are impressive. Nearly 13 points, over 13 boards and almost 2 blocks per game. However Noah also drinks from the cup of fantasy hemlock. Plantar Facilitis. He missed 18 games this season and only started in 54 total. This is the reason his Yahoo average rank is only 62. Sift through his game log and there are some pretty sad rows which really impact on his per game figures.
There are two good trends though when looking at Noah. If he can play this well against a Cavs team which is loaded with talent across the floor, he can get it done next season against the Detriot Pistons 4 times a year. His minutes, despite missing large parts of the season, are still equal to 2008-09. You can expect, when healthy, Noah to average 36-38 minutes per game. 13/13/2 with +50% from the field and a new found knack for the free throw (74% on the season)? Not bad for a big man.
You won’t hear Nene talking about his game (or Cleveland) like Noah does but if you have had the pleasure of being an owner in recent seasons, you will appreciate his game. The big man is Mr. Efficient when it comes to field goal percentage. In the playoffs so far, he has shot 7-10 in both games. You will see lots 5-8, 6-8, type games from Nene who also chips in with important steals and blocks. This season past, Nene started every game at Center. That’s a major reason he ended up with an overall ranking of 19, pretty impressive for a guy who only shoots 70% from the line.
Nene is a lock for a quality second tier Center. He does everything right, doesn’t hurt you anywhere and has turned into a very consistent player.
The question is therefore who would you take? A this stage, with Noah out there putting up great numbers against the best in the business, with all that upside and better per36 number, you would seriously be looking at him in the early 4th round. Most people might be surprised at this, but the figures don’t lie. Nene, while putting up great numbers this year, probably won’t have the same impact next season. You can be sure that someone will over pay for him early, limiting your chance to pick him up at a reasonable stage in the draft (mid-late 4th round).
2009-10
Joakim Noah (Yahoo Rank: 99 total, 62 ave): 50.4%, 74.4%, 10.7 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks, 1.8 turnovers
Per 36: 12.8 points, 13.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, .6 steals, 1.9 blocks, 2.2 turnovers
Nene (Yahoo Rank: 18 total, 29 ave): 58.7%, 70.4%, 13.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks, 1.5 turnovers
Per 36: 14.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.1 blocks, 1.6 turnovers
