Getting Deep
I was trying to explain fantasy basketball to people in the real world today at work. Despite the fact my lovely co-worker thinks my Kevin Durant poster is the portrayal of a soccer player, there were genuine signs of interest which I did not expect and questions which I have never really thought of seriously before. “Why do you pick players?”. “Why do so many people play?”. “American basketball and not Australian?”. I thought I’d tackle these at a more meta-level today than projecting about why unruly Spanish players deflate me.
Apart from the easy answer to the third question, we’ll cover the first two here and perhaps as the season approaches closer in the future, try and find some more existential fantasy basketball questions.
Why do you pick players?
Standard response: to make a team and verse other players in the league.
More appropriate answer: To compete, while also enjoying the NBA in a method which requires a different perspective on basketball. Your average Miami Heat fan might like to prance around in their D Wade jersey, talk about the glory days of early summer in 2006 and drop names like Voshon Lenard to prove their worthiness as fans after the arrival of Chris Bosh and LeBron. You know what I think? Stuff Voshon Lenard. I don’t give two hoots about your backwater, mediocre, should have been a bench player their whole career franchise love child. While I might read stuff like this about John Starks and think “Wow, that’s neat” (sidenote: that’s the best article I have read in a long time), I really don’t live for stories like that or players like that within a franchise environment which pines for success and fame. I want to compete. Most of all, I want to compete against people I know, over things we love talking about for hours on end. I’ll admit I do have an interest in Boston after the arrival of the big three (the bandwagon was fun, less so now) as well as the Knicks after visiting New York over last winter. But my favorite icon of the NBA at present?* Kevin Durant. This is no love affair with his work ethic or his commitment to a small town team (although it’s admirable). It’s his commitment to my fantasy basketball team over the past two seasons. This is perhaps blasphemous to a ‘basketball purist’ but you can take your Voshon and stuff it. I’ll still be shooting hoops with my Durant jersey simply because that’s how I can relate to him and let me tell you, it’s awesome, especially when he drops 15 points in a quarter and the emails start flowing. To get the most out of this game, you don’t just pick players, you pick persona’s and everything which comes with them.
* I say ‘at present’ because the single greatest thing about picking players is that there is always the next draft, the next season and the next team.
I was going to answer the next question as well but I think I have covered it already. I don’t know why I needed the write the above, but I think it is some personal justification for the amount of time I spend reading basketball blogs in August. So, to some links!
The amazing Dan Gilbert gives us the Cleveland Cavaliers
King of Hoops lays out the All ‘why cant you do that’ team
Josh Childress – You snooze, you lose
The best Small Forwards in the game from Fantasy Basketball Daily
Things are pretty slow around the NBA at the moment. Hopefully things pick up after the World Championships as we move into pre-season. More rankings and first round stuff coming up later this week.
Why Pau Gasol is no fantasy of mine…
(I would skip this post if you; a) like the Lakers, b) like Pau Gasol, or c) think that fantasy analysis should be based solely on statistics and not subjective, whiny opinion about dopey, annoying PF/C’s)
It’s time for some explaining. Below are Gasol’s numbers for last season:
18.3 points, 11.3 boards, 3.4 assists, 1.7 blocks, 0.6 steals, 53.6% FG on 13 attempts and 79% FT on 5.6 attempts. He also commits 2.2 turnovers per game because he is a sucker. Anyway, as any fantasy guru will tell you, these are some pretty impressive numbers. In fact, nearly everyone agrees that this year he is a automatic first round pick.
I am here to try and show to you in some round about, semi logical, almost irrational way why you should not waste your precious picks on Pau Gasol in the first round.
This picture is evidence for points one and three (copyright: Rolling Stone Magazine)
1) Pau Gasol is not interesting. Try and stay with this because it’s important. Gasol will very often, as witnessed by his averages, drop a pretty sizable double-double. However it will be the most drib drab 18 and 12 you have ever seen. Post move, tip in, 6 foot jumper, tip in… repeat. Running the triangle is not the most forceful way to enliven your audience. What do you really want from your first round pick apart from top draw stats? You want to be amazed at least once a week at a box score which goes BANG (scroll to Rondo) and leaves you bedazzled. You want to be able to say to yourself, after your 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks all shoot 43% and collect a combined 27 points between them, that it’s OK because your bomb diggy first round pick is still playing on the West Coast tonight and he is going to drop 40. Here are a list of players that can drop 40; LeBron, Wade, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dirk, Kobe, Amar’e, Steph Curry, Danny Granger and Melo. Pau Gasol does not make that list despite his stats and he never will. I know points aren’t everything, but when someone scores a bucket load of points, you can say hello to minimum three categories (points, FG%, FT%) and probably others because of the effort which will require those points (steals, threes).
2) Pau Gasol is soft. Yes he is and don’t try and think otherwise. He gets pushed around by bigger centers and power forwards. He falls to the ground. He misses games. Recount; 17 last season, 16 in 2007-08, 23 the year before that. In all, that’s 57 in 4 seasons. Yuck. That’s Dwyane Wade before the 2008 Olympics bad. That’s Danny Granger bad. Just think, you should now know that Andrew Bogut is probably going to miss about 4 weeks of the season (and it could be many more). Let’s say he does miss 4 weeks and about 15 games. Suddenly, he isn’t that third round pick everyone was talking about and it’s hello at pick 55. With Gasol, you don’t have the luxury of being able to plan around it because you don’t know when it’s going to come… and it will come. With Gasol, you know that Odom and Bynum will be there to ease back into it. With Gasol, you know that things will go slowly because he is on a contender and they don’t rush things like this. If you want some more evidence of why you don’t want this guy on your team because you will cop too much abuse from your friends when SportsCenter roles around, see here and flick to the 26 second mark.
3) Pau Gasol is a dick. He called out Kobe Bryant despite being infinitely inferior. He has a disgusting shaggy beard/haircut. I just needed to get this off my chest before we move on.
4) Pau Gasol cannot play as well as last season again. This one is the most important argument for fantasy in 2010-11. You might not agree here, but Andrew Bynum is going to pull it all together this season. The guy is a dead set beast and the Lakers will be feeding him the ball as much as possible this season. Gasol will see more rest as Theo Ratliff was signed for a reason. 37 minutes per game is too much and the Lakers reliance on him has been too great over the past two seasons. His struggles against the Celtics in the playoffs last season showcased the way to render his less effective and you can be sure that the rest of the Western Conference were watching. Over the past three seasons with the Lakers, his FG% has steadily dropped from a high of 59% to 53% last season. All of this points to the fact you can expect a drop off from Gasol this season. Not a massive one, but enough to suggest he is being slightly over-valued by the majority of fantasy speculators out there. Last year he was a late first rounder/early second round pick. Nothing has changed this year.
Let someone else worry about Pau Gasol and you enjoy some actual excitement with your first round pick.
Fantasy Basketball 2010: The First Round Dilemma Pt. 1
In 2009-10, there was pretty clear consensus that the top 3 picks (Chris Paul, LeBron and Wade) would all provide great value. In 2010-11, it’s a similar thing, except Wade has been bumped by Kevin Durant. What’s so different about 2010 though, is that I have seen a lot of comments from people willing to forego the picks from 4 right through to about 8 or 9, because the perceived value isn’t there this season.
Why is this the case? A clear message has arrived for this fantasy season heading forward. Dirk is the number four option and it’s not a favorable one. He is closely followed, in not particular order, by Wade, Bryant, Gasol, Granger and in some cases, Williams. In 2009, a very different picture was in vogue. Last year, it was clutch for value, in the form of Kevin Durant and Danny Granger occupying positions in the 4, 5, 6 range across most drafts.
I don’t know why this narrative has emerged this season. Nothing against Dirk, but his numbers aren’t exactly going to surprise anyone this season. They will be solid. They will be consistent. They will be boring. Last season he was 25/8, with 48% from the field and 91% from the line alongside 1 block, .9 steals and .6 threes per game. This season, you can pencil all of that in again, with a slight down tick in steals, threes and boards. These are fine numbers for fantasy basketball…. just not at number 4. At number 6 or 7, it makes a lot more sense. Personally, I will be taking Kobe over Dirk if forced to this season, but I will be taking neither of them at number 4. For me, the choice comes down to Wade or Stephen Curry (I have an inbuilt receptor which hates Pau Gasol and will never draft him while Deron Williams and Danny Granger cannot be trusted with such grand responsibilities).
In both of these cases, the risk/reward factor is what strengthens their draft position.
The case for Wade:
Despite what anyone will tell you, no-one knows what is actually going to happen on the Heat team this season. LeBron might average a triple-double. Chris Bosh might turn into a decent defender (are you laughing yet?) and Dwyane Wade might become the greatest closer the NBA has ever seen purely because of the pressure which will not be applied to his every move. It all depends on three things for Wade. How many points/assists he gives up to LeBron, how many extra steals/threes he can manage if the pace increases and how many minutes he sits because of 20+ point leads in the 4th quarter. Personally, I feel it is going to take some time for this team to gel properly. Sure, they will win a lot of games, but it will not be easy in any sense of the word. I think the pace will increase substantially and I think all of this benefits Wade. I say his numbers will bottom out to about 23/5/5 however his FG% will rise to 48%+, together with more threes, 2+ steals and hopefully a block. Let’s call this a pimped out Kobe Bryant. All of these things are better than Dirkalicious and the only real threat in my eyes is if it all comes together quicker than expected and his minutes plummet to under 34/game. The real thing at play here is the unknown aspect. The risk you take with Wade might well pay off much better than anyone is expecting. At the same time, even with drop offs in every category, he is still at worst, late first round talent. Think of this as an investment in property, as opposed to a Ponzi scheme.
The case for Curry:
This all really comes down to one thing. Will Don Nelson stay for the season, or will he leave at some under determined point in the future? Curry was the number ONE option in fantasy basketball in last season’s playoffs and that says a lot when you have Kevin Durant going off for 30 and 10 every night. You just don’t get these numbers anywhere else; 26 points, 8 assists, 6 boards, 3 threes, 48%-89% and 2.6 steals. It’s like combining Rajon Rondo’s PG ability with Ray Allen’s SG ability and throwing in the points and rebounds just for fun. It wasn’t fair. These numbers are not to be expected as a constant for the 2010-11 season but they are a very good indication of what can occur for Curry in various parts of the season ahead. With the David Lee addition to the team, the pick n’ roll game will step up another level. The only thing which precludes Curry from automatically being picked up at this spot is the coach and the system he brings with him. New owners at Golden State might not tolerate a 8-30 start to the season despite fantasy owners deploring them to maintain the status quo. Adjusting Curry’s stats to ‘average’ NBA pace still produces some very solid categories, but it is not top tier first round talent by any means. This is a greater gamble but then again, if Curry even registers a small sophomore leap, it’s a gamble which could rock your world.
For mine, the risks associated with Curry are greater in the short term however Wade scares the crap out of me come fantasy playoffs if the Heat have secured a solid lead in the East. At this stage I’m leaning towards Wade but will very possibly change my mind over the coming months. And if we get one or two spots lower in regard to Curry, it’s not even a debate anymore. You take him and ride him all the way into the sunset.
Next up, we’ll debate Granger and Williams. If I find space in my small black heart, we might also cover Gasol at some stage in the distant future.
(Note: no Dirk Nowitzki’s were harmed during the production of this blog post)
Fantasy Basketball and that time of the year
Are all your friends talking about fantasy football and how awesome it is because they just drafted Chris Johnson? Chumps. It’s that time of the year for fantasy basketball where all news is boring news (see: Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets and figuring out why so many people care about Rudy Fernandez despite him being a minimal role player at best).
Jason finished up our two man mock draft over at fbasketballblog. Here is round 13. I was going to do a full blown recap, but for a August mock draft, I thought it was a bit excessive. Instead, I’ll go with the best and worst picks in my eyes. First, Michael Beasley as a 6th rounder? Seriously, what was I thinking? While I was trying to slot him into a real ‘fantasy’ team (this sentence doesn’t make sense thus far), it was an epic fail. The T’Wolves actually have some talent as opposed to last year and Beasley hasn’t exactly shown much to date even as the second option on a shitty team. D- for this pick. Jason snagged Monta in the third round. It isn’t in the same ball park as the B-Easy variety, but I still think this is pretty high for a scorer who is going to be reduced to the third option on the Warriors team which has great uncertainty around the coach. But, I can live with it. Also, Dwight Howard should really make an appearance in the first round but each to their own. Good picks? D-Will at #8 even though I would have taken him above Granger and Gasol personally but still some people aren’t sold. The fact that he does nearly everything shouldn’t put you off people. Turkoglu in the 5th is a risky in the extreme but I LOVE it. Same with Ray Felton. Bogut in the 4th was probably my best as he is top shelf these days. It was good fun reading what another person thought about the direction of individual teams and how certain players matched up. So cheers Jason, until next year. Speaking of, see this post if you are interested in a mock draft next Thursday.
Since I have nothing original to say, I’m going to take the liberty to comment on other people’s work. I am trying to slog away at a beginners guide and player list, but it’s still awhile away yet.
Over at a relatively new blog (from what I can tell), Life is Just a Fantasy… Basketball Blog, there is a whole bunch of stuff about individual players and what the coming season holds for them. He likes Reggie Williams but has a distinct distaste for Greg Oden (Shame!). Perhaps some of you know my like of all things which came out of the 2007 draft and that’s why I shed tears when I see predictions ranging from the 10th to the 12th round in most people’s predictions. It’s his time to shine and it’s going to happen. That’s all I’ll say at this stage. Just be glad when your 8th round pick starts putting up 12-12-3 every night.
Give Me The Rock have their awesome, fantastically wonderful NBA schedule up already. This year it comes with improvements in the form of the entire NBA schedule, a weekly fantasy schedule, a daily schedule and a team comparison chart. I dunno what more you could ask for? Some pizza pie I suppose. Also, Nels breaks down the Denver Nuggets and Erik tackles the Milwaukee Bucks, nearly making up for the fact he wrote off Andrew Bogut last season… =) I agree with both these guys on most things except I never touch Chris Anderson (mostly because he scares the shit out of me) and I’m not loving Drew Gooden because Luc Mbah Morte is an athletic freak of nature who is going to dominate defensively in the near future and Scott Skiles loves defense. Also, Drew Gooden will have moved teams by Mid-November.
Fantasy Basketball Daily breaks down the SG position for this season. Unsurprisingly Kobe and Dwyane feature on the list. Somewhat more surprisingly, O.J Mayo comes in at #6. I love it, but I think most people will wait on him and go for the likes of Kev-Mart, Manu and Ray-Ray before they touch Mayo. He is also high on Mike Miller. If you are in need of three’s at any point, grab him and start smiling wildly. For Facebook fans, here is the new Fantasy Basketball Daily fan page.
And finally, Dr. A over at Rotoworld has a new Q&A column up which I’m sure most people have already seen if you read anything about fantasy basketball. Some of the questions are daunting indeed. On the Darren Collison question, I think he ranks ahead of Mo Williams, Aaron Brooks and John Wall. Of course, this depends on if you value assists more so than FG% or TOs.
Come next week, there will be some actual creative writing instead of rounding up other people’s hard earned keyboard strokes. Since there are other sites doing collective teams and in-depth positional looks, I will try and focus on a few things which get overlooked from my perspective. Like how an ageing Jason Kidd is still infinitely times better than anything Devin Harris will attempt on a basketball court in the 2010-11 season and a few strategy pieces which need rehashing (point guards and power forwards is so 2006).
Overrated In a Napoleon Dynamite kind of way: Fantasy Basketball at it’s most awkward
Whats the most overrated film you have ever seen? It might have actually been a decent film, but despite the best efforts of your friends to convince you otherwise, you just don’t think it’s the next To Kill A Mockingbird (the actual greatest film of all time). For me, it has to be Napoleon Dynamite. Funny? Yes. Hilarious? No. And what’s with all the stupid red indie t-shirts? Get bent Napoleon Dynamite. Anyway, to try and draw a comparison, these are just a few players who I think will be overrated in the upcoming season.
Let me make it clear before I begin. They don’t suck. Some will even get drafted pretty early. Just I think, personally, many of them will go way before their time because of their name, past achievements or the inevitable hype machine which surrounds certain players.
Stephen Jackson: I hear your cries. He’s so awesome. No-one else at the Bobcats knows how to shoot. Ray Felton has left which will boost his assist totals. I understand all this. But here are the underlying foundations of the S-Jax bandwagon. The Bobcats are the most offensively challenged NBA team. Even though they might score more points than other teams at times, this is purely by fluke. With this new found offensive responsbility will come a drop in FG% (from 42.3%, if that’s even possible), an increase in turnovers (hello 4+ per game to lead the league) and more worries about moodiness than any manager can handle. There is a real possibility he will put up 20/5/5, but for that chance, you will have to snap him up in the third round. The risk? He ends up averaging 17/4/4 with two category killers. Yuck. Overrated factor: The Matrix Reloaded.
Darko Milicic: There has been a lot of talk about Milicic recently thanks to his new contract. TrueHoop has a bet and HP wrote one of my favorite articles of the off-season about him. All of this equals predictions verging on the range of stupid. I’ll lay this one on you. My housemate (let’s call him LITTOGA – love in the time of Gilbert Arenas) is a pretty big fantasy fan. He freely admits he hasn’t been following the off-season that strongly but laid down the claim that Darko could average 4+ assists per game this season. 4!!!! This was later revised to 3 after a little thought. Let’s check out the facts. The T’Wolves offense is as much of a triangle as David Khan’s forehead. Milicic has never averaged more than 1.8 assists per game (this was last season in 24 games with Minny). Darko has played for 5 teams in 5 seasons. I’ll accept that he could perhaps have his best season ever, say 10 points, 8 boards, 1.5 blocks, 2 assists but this still isn’t good enough to crack the majority of fantasy leagues before the 12th round. Lesson: Trust the past. Overrated factor: John Mayer’s Fourth Studio album (no-one actually rates it at all, just your weirdo housemate. True story.)
John Wall: There will be disagreement here. However wait until you start playing on the shiny Yahoo mock draft toy and see Wall’s name start coming off in the mid-fourth round in September and watch it creep up to the third by late October. It’s going to happen. And sure, you can go ahead and pick him there if you like watching your money disappear late at nights in dark casino’s, but the fact is, he is an untested point guard in a strange back court situation. It’ll be like having the good jesus and bad jesus sitting on your shoulders with Hinrich and Arenas. Hinrich looks smart, says the right things, plays the right part and tries to teach while Arenas seems to be having all the fun, pulling all the ladies and getting all the laughs. If I was an impressionable 19 year old kid, I know what I’d be doing and it doesn’t involve listening to classical music post-game with the big K-dog. Wall will be a talented PG this season, but if you even think of taking him before 2nd tier picks like Earl Baron Davis, Derrick Rose or even my boy Ray Felton, your dreaming sunshine. Overrated factor: Sarah Palin, circa July 2008.
Hedo Turkoglu: The big Turk has escaped the rotten land of Canada for the more yellow pastures of Arizona and everyone thinks it’s a great move! More minutes, more smiling, more Steve Nash. It’s all good. But it’s only a certain amount of good if you get my drift. Remember, this is the same Hedo who liked to dance up a storm the night before games in Toronto and once so utterly confused people with his ‘ball’ speech for no apparent reason. Anyway, more factual evidence is required I feel. Forget 2008-09 (16/5/5, 1.7 treys) and start thinking about 2010-11 (14/6/4 with 1.2 treys). Sure, the difference isn’t amazing but it’s enough to not start thinking about the big bad Turk until a bit later than the jerk who just took him in the 4th round. Overrated factor: Heineken beer.
Manu Ginobili: Yeah, I’m look at you Jason. Don’t shake your head silently at your computer screen. Manu is a freak. The things he does on the Spurs when no-one else wants to do it is incredible. The problem is, sometimes Timmy D and Tony P do show up, and then he sort of cruises through games in 2nd gear. Last season was actually very productive for Manu. 16/4/5 with nearly 2 treys, wicked FT% and 1.4 steals. That’s delicious in 28 minutes a night. However it’s not third round delicious especially when you consider he still missed 7 games but that was somehow his lowest since 2003-04. Injuries, upcoming talent (George Hill, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair) all mean less touches for old dudes and the slow but inevitable transformation of the San Antonio Spurs. I would still be a Manu taker, but only in the mid-late 4th round and only if your team desperately needs assists/treys from a 2 guard spot. Overrated factor: The American Soccer Team (a draw with England isn’t anything to celebrate just quietly)
Monta Ellis: Here is where the fun begins. Monta is my prediction for one of the biggest drop offs in individual output this season. The Warriors are now firmly Stephen Curry’s team. Monta will see as much ball as Curry allows. Curry’s individual brilliance will be first option, closely followed by David Lee in the front court with a distant Monta number three on the pecking order. This isn’t necessarily a bad spot to be when your at the Warriors for fantasy production, but Mr Moped is going to seriously struggle to put up 25 points per game this season. 20 points? Sure. More than 5 assists? Never again. 3.8 turnovers? He will probably still manage even without the ball handling duties. You can bank the steals and an ever increasing three point production, but as a 2nd round pick? This scares the shit out of me. Overrated factor: Tony Romo, circa August every year.
I’ve got another 4 names sitting just below, but I might save them for a slow news day next week. If anyone can guess all 4 though, you can have a cookie. Hints: One brash young upstart, one overpaid 3 point camper, only one Atlanta Hawk (that’s a surprise) and one Team USA player who turns 86 at some point this season.
Other stuff….
GiveMeTheRock does the Charlotte Bobcats (also their latest player rankings)
Breaking down the Miami Heat, Guns N’ Roses Style over at FantasyBasketballDaily
The last round of Damn Lies and Statistics mock draft
This is a pretty interesting topic over at Matt Buser’s forum. First round H2H rankings. Some interesting speculation to say the least. Favorite quote to date? “Dwight Howard is the most overrated fantasy player of all time imo.”
Speaking of Mr Buser, an updated Yahoo Big Board
Some links amongst other things
I don’t have much else to say after that mock draft post below (keep scrolling…) but I have had a pretty ineffective day studying which has a very causative relationship to the amount of fantasy basketball stuff I read.
Anyway, it looks like Hardwoord Paroxysm has got itself a new fantasy analyst, if that is the right term, which it isn’t. Allen Law, aka Djturtleface from FreeDarko fame, has a new column which promises to be weekly, and more importantly, a bit of a different look at fantasy teams. Reading his dot points at the bottom, I’m pretty excited to follow this. Here is the first post.
TalesOf9Cats has a new interview up, this time with Jason from fBasketballBlog and the DIME magazine fantasy specialist. It’s engaging and has some pretty interesting stuff. I really like the Q&A format. It’s something original and gives good insight into how others think, together with a dose of personality, which can often be missing in fantasy basketball talk. Here is the interview.
This is the greatest fantasy trophy in the world. Pity about the price but if you are super serious, check it out.
There are many ‘untruths’ about fantasy basketball. This is one of them, talking about there being no bad draft position in fantasy basketball. Seriously, if you argument is that you will voluntarily take draft spot #12, you are a dick. Plain and simple. This up coming season for instance, I would LOVE a top 3 pick. After that, I would prefer a 10-12 pick, because stuff dealing with working out where to pick Dirk/Kobe/Wade/Granger etc. Plus, I know I can still get Amar’e or Curry at #10 and that’s all that matters.
Damn Lies and Statistics have moved onto the 9th round of their 4 man mock draft. There are some interesting decisions (remembering it’s roto). I like Oden, Hibbert and Thomas, but I am very wary of Calderon and JaVale McGee. I mean, c’mon man, McGee?? I saw that kid in the flesh last season and he looked like he would struggle in a game of pick up. Hopefully he is improved and the starting spot at the Wizards gives him fantasy value but I like my 9th round centers with a bit more meat on them. Note: they still haven’t picked Vince Carter. A sign of the future I feel.
Finally, for those of you into podcasts. I know most people know of The Disciples of Clyde and don’t they need to help getting more listens, but it’s seriously one of the best out there for casual and hardcore NBA fans. It’s fun, easy to comprehend and the ability to connect with ‘regular fans’ is amazing. I really enjoy it. Plus, the music is wicked good. Here is the latest episode (#101).
The Case For, The Case Against: Free Throw Dumping In Round Two
Dumping FT% in the 2nd round
Over at Damn Lies and Statistics, they are having a 4 man expert mock draft (warning: roto style, may induce sleep). In their look at Round Two, a real trend sticks out. People are willing to draft FT% killers. In that specific post, they include Dwight, J Smoove, Rondo and Iguodala. Tyreke Evans might pop up as well. Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m all for drafting these players in the 2nd round (actually, this is a lie but I like to at least try and start out even handed), but this is just a look at some of the underlying reasons why people will make these decisions. Of course, try and keep in mind that in H2H leagues, it is widely assumed that it’s OK to dump a category (or two if your brave) because of the strictly mono e mono aspect relative to roto leagues.
What are some of the factors towards this trend? Well, we can start with the fact that once you get past round 1 in nba drafts, every player is going to have some deficiencies. Jason Kidd doesn’t score, Steve Nash doesn’t defend, Brandon Roy doesn’t play 82 games (this one is worse). So it’s OK that they are no good at FT%? Not quite.
The percentage categories in fantasy basketball are pretty special. While the others (points, boards, threes, blocks, steals, assists, turnovers) are all purely based on empirical totals, it is impossible go to backwards once you have accrued stats in these categories (apart from turnovers, where going forwards is going backwards, but that is a discussion for another day). With percentages, one bad day from your star can literally ruin the entire week. Think about when Kevin Durant shoots 6 from 25, instead of an average 9 from 19 performance. Those 19 missed shots in theoretical game one have created such a gulf that unless the rest of your team is made up of Gasol brothers, you can nearly kiss goodbye to the category for the week. While his FG% will average out over the course of a season, H2H is week to week, which doesn’t help you.
With FT%, this is even more important due to the disparity between players who take a large volume of free throws. While a good fantasy players who shoot 55% from the field might make 8-10 baskets a game, good players who shoot 48% will generally take a higher number. With free throws, this doesn’t occur. Let’s look at the top 5 field goal attempts vs. the top 5 free throw attempts from 2009-10.
Field Goal Attempts: Durant (794), James (768), Nowitzki (720), Wade (719), Bryant (716). Highest: James .503 – Lowest: Bryant .456
Free Throw Attempts: Durant (840), Howard (816), James (773), Wade (702), Stoudemire (632). Highest: Durant .900 – Lowest: Howard .592
Of qualified players, there are only 38 players between James and Bryant for field goal shooting while there are 129 players between Durant and Howard (and 73 between Durant and Amar’e).
So what you may ask? It’s extremely hard to overcome a bad free throw shooter relative to other categories. Other players can make up gaps from your best players in other categories, but free throws is different. Basically, the rule is that the player must have other mind blowing stats to overcome this big hole in their game.
That’s where the other side of the debate comes into it’s own. Some of these players can dominate so thoroughly in other categories that it doesn’t make one iota of difference if you lose free throws by 30% every week. Dwight Howard is one of those players. League leading in blocks and boards, plus a pretty handy FG% to boot. Yes please. Rajon Rondo is another. He is only going to get more fantasy relevance in that extremely old Boston team as the season progresses. Pick away I say. I’m not sure if Josh Smith or Andre Iguodala qualify in the same way, but they only took 5.2 attempts each game last season so who knows.
In the end, this trend seems to just be the done thing because that’s how the majority of the experts rate FT% and it’s impact on your team. I am more sceptical and probably won’t be taking any of the above players (apart from Smith if he falls far enough) in any of my drafts. Maybe this is showing my ignorance, but it is what it is.
Here are some other things which might make more sense than what you just read:
A look ahead at the possibilities for Blake Griffin this season.
Fantasy Point Guard Rankings from FantasyBasketballDaily.
Damn Lies and Statistics are into the 6th round of their 4 man mock draft, which includes Doc A from Rotoworld.
Furthermore, GMTR should have some more team previews up soon, while Jason at fBasketballBlog will have Round 7 of our Two Man Mock Draft soon.
Some (of the many) myths about the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season
“Surely nobody saw the sorry collection of talent I overpaid to assemble proceed to underachieve spectacularly. At least, I hope nobody saw that.”
According to Doc Funk, this is what Bryan Colangelo is saying when he talks about the ‘failings’ of Chris Bosh. More power to you Mr Funk. But to totally take this quote out of perspective, it applies to so many other things in life apart from bad Toronto Raptor player contracts. Like fantasy picks. Over-priced, half-baked players (not just Michael Beasley) who get by on past achievements and their good looks (and not just Joakim Noah). The rankings have started to appear but the mainstream, like everything else mainstream, often gets the easiest things wrong because popularity trumps smarts these days in almost every arena. So let’s break down some of the myths about certain fantasy players for the upcoming season.
Tyreke Evans > Rondo/Kidd: This just doesn’t add up for me. The Kings have all of a sudden become a pretty impressive list. They have added a legit power forward beast in DeMarcus Cousins who is going to be demanding the ball. Carl Landry is slotting in off the bench. Sam Dalembert is going have a ridiculous TRB%. At the start of last year it was the Jason Thompson sleeper contest. This year he is hardly talked about, indicating their depth. Francesco Garcia is back from his bouncy ball injury and Omri Casspi has grown up another year and is ready to showcase in cities apart from just New York. Evans isn’t going to get the opportunity to go improve on his 20/5/5 which by the way, was ONLY achieved because the whole organisation from the GM and coach down were spoon feeding him minutes to get to those stats. In March, he averaged a minute and a half more than his season average, despite playing for a team without a chance at making the playoffs. Everyone marks down Derrick Rose not being able to hit three’s, but Evans only managed .5 per game. Plus at the guard, like Rondo, he is destroying your FT% (75% on 6.5 per). The difference? Rondo is a legitimate triple double threat every single night whereas Evans is still learning the game on a beefed up team. Let it be clear. I’m not Evans hater. I just don’t see him above Kidd or Rondo on the PG pecking order this season. Point guards are meant to steal and get assists. Extra scoring and boards never hurt anyone, but if you can’t do the fundamentals of your position to an extremely high standard, you lose marks and fantasy value in my books.
Gilbert Arenas anywhere near Mo Williams (as seen on the Buser big board): This scares me. If there is only one player who could symbolize a Do Not Draft list, it would be Arenas. Two seasons destroyed by knee injuries. One season destroyed by gun charges. At least when Yao goes down he does it with style. Mo Williams has never been the man. He only lasted one season at the Jazz and with the Bucks there was always someone in front of him (Michael Redd of all people). Of course, at the Cavs all he has had to do is occasionally bring the ball up, knock down a couple of free throws per game and camp outside the three point line. This all changes. Mo Williams is THE MAN in Cleveland. Antwan Jamison is too old, J.J Hickson is too young. He is going to have a major season. And everyone is going to wait for him to fall for them. Be brave, take him early. And if you are even thinking about Arenas before the late 5th round, go watch some John Wall mix tapes and get back to me.
Paul Millsap not being awesome: If the last one scared me, this CBS ranking page is like a all consuming black hole. Now I know CBS uses some whacky points based system which is impossible to understand, but here are a few of the names of the ‘forwards’ before Millsap (who comes in at #56… not total… excluding all guards and centers). Corey Brewer; Thad Young; Shawn Marion; Grant Hill; and my personal favorite, the afore mentioned Jason Thompson at #47. Now Millsap isn’t going to light it up this season even with Boozer having exited stage right. Okur and Al Jefferson will soak up minutes, but this is the same Millsap who played in every game last season and managed 11.6 points/6.8 boards/1.2 blocks with 53% from the field in less than 28 minutes. With more opportunity (and that’s what he will get this season), these numbers will spike. But even if they didn’t, that list of hacks still shouldn’t be appearing on any rankings list come October.
Cheer up Perk, you don't have to sit with Mr. Glum anymore (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
Bill Walker playing more minutes than Kelenna Azubuike: You remember Bill Walker right? Sure you do. Celtics bench warmer. Good at looking glum. Has crazy eyes. Well, he arrived in NYC last season and found out that he was actually allowed on the court long enough to score some points. However, this Yahoo depth chart (dated 29 July) must be some sort of sycophant because it has him as the starting two guard! Sheesh. I guess all that time backing up Ray Allen must have taught him to shoot right? Well he did manage to knock down some three’s in the 27 games he did play but this was because Chris Duhon was the next best shooter after Gallo. But now this Knicks team doesn’t need Walker and his ability to mop up minutes while others are injured or should not be playing. Azubuike though, he can straight up ball. Injured for the majority of last season with the Warriors, the year before he was an actual effective player. 32 minutes per game, 14 and 5, with near 1-1-1 extras. Nothing to jump up and down about, but a lot more than anything you will see from Bill Walker this season.
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In some non-fantasy stuff. I just want to say, there are some very funny people on the internet. I know this stuff has probably been seen before, but it makes me laugh and on the off chance others haven’t seen it, check it out.
Followed closely by;
http://jeskeets.tumblr.com/post/866956695/kids-have-no-idea-how-much-money-nba-players-make
The real reason CP3 is staying with the Hornets.
Other basketball related stuff;
Best contracts under $40m by Hardwood P.
Fantasy outlook for the Rockets by GMTR.
And best of all, three fantasy experts (no, really) in the form of Jeff Andriesse, Tom Lorenzo and Greg Fox are having a live blog in about 3 hours by my count (Noon, American Eastern Standard Time). Check it out at Damn Lies and Statistics.
Those players you love to hate
Everyone who watches basketball loves to hate certain players. There are the Kobe haters, the LeBron haters (suddenly a lot more of these) etc. This is normally because the player is not on their team and tall poppy syndrome is forever high among casual fans. Just like George can’t believe Ted Danson makes $800,000, I don’t believe these players make useful fantasy additions and, no matter what spot they are in the draft, I will NEVER ever take them (again). In fact, the negative karma these fella’s have picked up along the way will consign you to a season of damnation. Like Indiana Pacers post Malice in the Palace damnation.
Mike Dunleavy Jr: There was one a time when Mike was an awesome basketball player. That time was long ago. He is now 30 and has managed to miss 79 games over the last two seasons. But worse than that? The games he actually did play. Slow. Inefficient. Boring. Which is why when I saw this forum post at Rotoworld with some dude (#4) saying he might go in the 7th round, my cereal jumped out of it’s bowl. Dunleavy did did me in two seasons ago when I took him in the middle rounds and he proceeded to play in 18 games for the season. I know it’s petty to hold a grudge, but I would buy a Carlos Arroyo jersey before I ever draft Mike Dunleavy.
Tayshaun Prince: Maybe it’s just his Yahoo mug shot, but there is something not quite right about Prince. A 6’9 dude who was born in Compton and plies his trade on the streets on Detroit should just be better, tougher and more aggressive than Prince. I see the equivalent of a walking mop whenever I watch a Pistons game and it annoys the hell out of me. These are all pretty superficial emotions I am feeling so here are some fantasy facts. Prince has never averaged more than 5.8 made field goal attempts per game (which happened to occur last season). 5.8? That’s how many Wheat-Bix Brett Lee has for breakfast, not the amount of field goals I want from my mid-late round draft pick. CBS fantasy had him pegged with an average draft rank of 86 last season. Basketball monster put him at 116 after the season had finished. At least when Jose Calderon ends up at 126, you know he at least had a chance to do something special. There was hope. There was life. Tayshaun gives you none of that. He is a great big jar of below average fantasy mediocrity. Yuck.
David West: This one I can’t actually rationally explain (unlike the others you snicker). In my first fantasy draft, I grabbed West in the 6th or 7th round I think. I didn’t know who he was. After a bit of research, I was pretty happy with myself. A diamond in the rough as it were. But then I traded him for an inexplicit reason and West is paying for that personal error ever since. West is the 18th pick in the uber 2003 draft class. He is also a perennial 3rd round fantasy pick. But this selection carries with it much baggage. Last season, with CP3 not around much, his field goal attempted shrunk by nearly 2 shots per game. Surely with the best player on the team sitting on the pine, the 2nd best player needs to step up, demand the ball and dominate games like J.R ‘Earl’ Smith at a summer league game. But that never happened. The Hornets instead looked to their promising young guns and Emeka Okafor who could hardly stand on one leg.
Mike Conley: This 4th pick out of the 2007 draft was so good in his rookie year, the Grizzles reached for combo guard the next year (Mayo) just as a little bit of protection, at the time giving up a much needed big man (Kevin Love). Conely is interesting as normally I love guys that have stamina and love to play lots of games per season. He has only missed two games in the last two seasons. What but actually occurs when he is on the court? Not much. Despite being a shot-adverse PG (less than 10 shots per game over three seasons), he still can’t manage to find assists (5.3 last season, a career high). A lot of this has to do with the Griz and their style of play. However I don’t care for niceties like that. See ya Mike Conely. (As a sidenote: Did you know Hasheem Thabeet will earn more money this season than O.J Mayo? Think about it. Thank you rookie pay scale.)
Kevin Martin: I end this bile of pessimism by mentioning someone who is probably on a whole bunch of these lists. But let me tell you, my story is better than yours. Last season, Martin had a scorching start. I was so excited after I drafted him nice and early that I was already looking past his injury plagued history and somehow rooting for the Kings. Then he got injured. And re-injured. If he had of played even above-average for those first days of the season, I would have been waving nicely to him in the rear view mirror. But those threes (3.6 per game). And that delicious FT% (.856 on 9.9 per game). How could I drop him? I couldn’t. Until he went to the Rockets. And injured himself again. Let me re-cap very quickly because it hurts so much. I held Martin for 32 games of zero production throughout the season. I dropped him eventually in late March. My Finals opponent picked him up and the disgusting son of a bitch scored 63 points in his last two games of the season. I lost my final 5-4. I lost points by 16. While I will forever blame Stephen Curry because he is a freak, Kevin Martin holds a special place in my heart as well.
I know you have these players as well. The irrational hatred for a player just because you can. I already feel better for sharing.
