Boring, Boring, Boring: Predictable Fantasy Players 2010-11
It’s round 12. You are sweating from your shitty computer overheating. You have run out of water/beer/vodka (circle as appropriate) but don’t want to get up because it’s pitch black apart from the dim lights of your screen. You just recently drafted a combination of DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Oden, Yao Ming, Wilson Chandler and Terrence Williams. You don’t know how it happened. You didn’t exactly aim for the most inconsistent bunch of flaky chumps this side of the 2009-10 Minnesota Timberwolves but it’s time to put your team back on track with some proven, although slightly boring, older hands. Deep breathes people, it will be OK;
Probably won’t be available in Round 12 but I liked the back story;
The statistical production of Ray Allen has been falling ever so slowly but so, so surely. Expect no less this season. On the plus side, he will not miss games, he will get his looks, he will be efficient. There is a reason this is titled boring, boring, boring and Ray Allen epitomizes this more than any other player in the league. He’s not flashy or in your face, he just does what he does, quietly yet predictively. I like O.J Mayo better this season but when it gets to that stage of the draft where Allen is on the board and you need a lock, there isn’t a better option at shooting guard.
Jason Terry is apparently overrated and has a ridiculously high ADP for his value according to these guys. Terry gets his minutes. Even with those role players last season he managed 33+ per game. He looks dropped off (-3 points) as did his long shots (-0.5). You just know though when you draft him, 1+ steal, 1.5+ steals, a delicious FT% on a pretty good number of attempts (3-4 per game) and super low turnovers. I must admit #65 is probably too high for my liking.
The Thunder can easily justify giving up max money to KD but the 2nd biggest story down in OKC this off-season is the lack of extension offered to Jeff Green. Maybe he isn’t getting it done on the court. As a fantasy owner though, you should know that he is playing for cash and that’s always a bonus. The problem with Green is his regression in his third season. Less points, boards and assists. Terrible drop off in 3FG%. It’s time to re-invent his game and it’s going to be pretty. You can bank the 15/6 and be confident he will be the 1/1/1 talent everyone recognises. And that’s about it. Lots of people avoid him for H2H (thinking he is a pure Roto stud) yet I don’t see it. Someone who chips in everywhere and is super consistent. The only reason people be hating is due to higher expectations and unfair comparisons.
The Truth, Paul Pierce, is another old dude who is going to drop off this season but the type of drop off is pretty predicable. Last season: 18/4/3, 1.5 3PM and 1.2 steals, 47%-85%. This season, same but reduced. 16 points, 3.5 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.2 3PM and 1.0 steals. Same percentages. You get the idea. It’s pretty simple. In Excel form it would look something like this: Production=(Previous Stats)/(Previous Age+365 days). Don’t input that bad boy into your spreads unless you want a nice #value? cell. In fact, you should probably forget about the Truth right now because some chump is going to take him waaay too early based on past reputation.
More typical 12th round suggestions;
Mike Conley is a dud, sorry Memphis fans. The number four pick from 2007 just cannot produce on the big stage. Conley is fine for 12/5 with about 45%. He’ll hit his three and grab a steal but nothing extra. He is lucky that the O.J Mayo @ PG was epic fail or his career would be spent on the bench. For fantasy 12th round purposes though, he is perfect. He can be your third back up PG who sits there all year, looking pretty. Don’t think of it as a wasted pick. There is even a little dash of upside if Rudy Gay, Mayo, Randolph and Gasol all go down with ‘flu-like symptoms’ for months of end.
For some unbeknown reason, whenever I see Beno Udrih’s name in print, I automatically pronounce it ‘Udrick’. Dunno why, just always have. Moving on. A lot of people will automatically assume because Tyreke Evans is a stud, anyone playing in the back court with him would be worthless. Wrong. Uridh averaged a career high in points and threes and tired his career highs in steals and assists last season. He played a solid 31 minutes a game. He is still the starting point guard on an up and coming team. Not exactly the first option but there will be a stackload of opportunity to manufacture some production. You can bank some pretty similar stats from last season (13/5 with steal/three). Not special, but worthy at the right (deep) spot.
Brendan Haywood is not exactly in a good place right now. After he moved to the Mavs last year he only averaged 26 minutes per game. Now he will be splitting time with Tyson Chandler. Yet in those 26 minutes, he still managed to construct 8 points, 7.5 boards and 2 blocks per game. Not bad at all. Keep an eye on him if you are going big and it starts to get a bit risky. He is nice insurance in case anything else goes wrong.
Like Haywood, Jarrett Jack is not loving his career right now. Sure he is the starting PG but it’s at possibly the worst team in the NBA and he has one of the best European point guards sitting right behind him. Despite all of this crap, Jack has obviously taken ‘Point Guard 101′. In 27 minutes per game last season he averaged 11.4 points and 5.0 assists. He has a wicked three point shot (+40% on 2.4 attempts) and shoots solid percentages (48/84 last season). All in all, he is like everyone else on this list. Wouldn’t cause a ripple in most places but plods along and gets the job done. When you are throwing up your late round flier of ‘random rookie pg x’, just pause one second and think if you have perhaps taken too many risks already? You probably haven’t but what the hell…
My housemate, myself and some bloke looking decidedly fed up by our shitty camera man
Potential WOW possibilities for fantasy 2010-11
There are always surprises in any given NBA season. Who would’ve thought last season Gerald Wallace would actually play that many games? How about rookies who actually make an impact which wasn’t happening in the past? It’s a surprise because it wasn’t expected (duh) but there are some possibilities which you can dream about and try to visualize. The following are ranked from most probable to least probable in my eyes and should be taken with the appropriate grain(s) of salt. The levels are my attempt to categorize and anyone on this list will provide a little to a lot of risk but the reward if it comes off is delicious.
“Brett Favre deciding to keep playing”: You really won’t be that surprised in this happens because it probably will, only with a shit load of ESPN coverage attached to it. LeBron James could average a triple-double. It’ll be amazing if he does, but will anyone think after the fact that he didn’t have it in him? Lots to be angry about, a renewed motivation to succeed and national coverage up the wazoo. John Wall has shown it all summer and now well into the pre-season but people still have him pegged as a 5-6th rounder most places I look (did see him in the 20s for one draft). Is it impossible to imagine him finishing in the top 20 this season with averaged close to 17 and 9 along with all the gravy? Not really. After the likes of Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry last season, you know rookies have the ability to put up the big numbers, it’s just a matter of time. That doesn’t make it any less impressive.
“Michael Jordan keeping his mouth shut until Christmas”: This is a bit less likely to happen however as the owner of a franchise, you never know. Every time I see the name Derrick Rose in the off-season, it’s always accompanied by the words “improved jump shot”. Despite this happening about every September, there is nary a shred of evidence. But surely it’s going to arrive one day? You can’t shoot 1000 shots a day and regress. Well, maybe you can, but not if you have Rose’s ability. I’m not believing this until I see it, but if you wanna go out on a limb, this is the last facet of his game which will transform him into a fantasy monster. Anthony Randolph must be happy for a new home but he has some stiff competition for minutes in NYC which is a rarity. With Amar’e manning the power forward role and Turiaf/Mozgov chewing up minutes at Center, it’s going to be interesting to see where he fits in. He has a history of not living up to the hype but on sheer athleticism he will get his shot. You’ll need to grab him before #60 I reckon in most leagues despite him being a complete 50/50 at this stage. Elton Brand is not having the same about of hype. People got burned bad last year by punting on him and it seems like no-one is ready to trust him. With an average draft rank at the moment of 88.7 (yahoo leagues), it’s not like you have to reach for him. But with Coach Collins looking to beef up his role and re-establish him as a go to man, it’s not like it’s a totally crazy pick. He has history of performing and while he is over 30, I can see a lot of upside relative to that average pick.
“The 0-5 49ers clinch their division by New Years Eve”: It’s amazing to think that this is an actual possibility but that’s just how bad the NFC West is this year (sorry for non-NFL fans). This isn’t even the worst category! Well, you might cringe at some of the names coming up but I really think there is a 20-30% chance of them hitting the big time (again) and dominating for long stretches of time. Vince Carter is not the guy he used to be. He is wasting shots, turning the ball over and doesn’t know how to be the crunch time scorer Orlando really lacks. But that said, he can still put the ball in the hoop when he tries, can pass a ball and chip in all around the court. If his motivation is high, if Orlando have it’s groove on from the start of the season AND if they are as pissed off about the Heat as they tell everyone, then Carter is going to be a nice addition. People are really ripping on him (and deservedly so) and he is in free fall in most draft lists. But you don’t just lose talent, it just rests dormant until the right time. I’m not expecting this to work out well but if it does, Carter will be a prominent piece on many fantasy rosters which end up winning their respective comps. Some people don’t care about contract years. Silly fools. Andrei Kirilenko is coming into his contract year and needs to perform if he is going to get another payday. The dude can’t rely on his body anymore and he is never going to average those past insane 5+ combined STL/BLKs yet he still holds value. Obviously a lot depends on his body. I can see him slotting onto this Jazz team though like a glove. He doesn’t have the pressure to score a bunch of points (D-Will, Jefferson will be the main options) while still being surrounded by fairly weak defensive players (or below average rebounders). I say AK has that small window to make a big splash at some stage during the season, stringing together some pretty impressive weekly totals. Andrew Bynum is probably a top 3 player on ‘Do Not Draft’ lists at the moment. It’s painful to own him. Week after week, his potential is there in flashes but the amount of games he missed or plays very limited minutes kills owners every matchup. Yet there is this inescapable feeling I get in my bones about him. He is so young, so talented and so freakin’ tall. He is still the future of the Lakers if they want him to be. I don’t have a very high opinion of his body being able to stay connected in all the right places….. but. It’s always the but. The potential is basically limitless. Plus, you can grab him in Round 9-10 in most leagues these days because of his history. I’m not advocating, just dreaming.
“Landing on the Hudson River…. when it’s frozen”: This will not happen unless divine intervention occurs on the basketball court. Still, if it does happen, just sit back and admire because you won’t be able to do anything else. I have always had this crazy fantasy which sits at the back of my head whenever I see Dwight Howard mentioned. Secretly, he knows how to hit free throws. He is just waiting to unleash it because he is such a stand up bloke and doesn’t want to destroy morale in the league by being so utterly dominant. Now I know this is outlandish and, to be frank with myself, pretty stupid on many levels. But if I can teach my under 12 kids to shoot free throws, then one day, Howard is going to wake up and be able to hit free throws. He just has to. It’s like gravity or some shit. It doesn’t have to make sense but there are a whole bunch of laws which only really smart people understand. Getting a bit off topic, but the one thing which gives me the shits more than anything about professional basketball players is not being able to hit their free throws! There is no-one stopping you, no-one abusing you. Just you and the basket. If you have to take 5000 per day over the off-season, then you do it. One person who can hit free throws and is over 7 foot is Yao Ming. Now it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Yao didn’t play a game last year and has walking disaster written all over him this year (limiting minutes, no back to backs, lots of support around him). How much is too much to ask for.. 55 games? 65? 70+? I’m not sure but if I see him anywhere near a draft spot around round 9, I know I’ll be there is a hurry because if everything does go right (and I realise I’m living in a fantasy here), he is going to provide first round value. %’s, points, boards, blocks. There is not much better than that. Perhaps my optimism is blinding me as I walk down towards th sunset yet I care not for at the moment, as I am blissfully unaware of the dangers ahead. All I see is a 1.37% chance of an 82 game season which draws me in, closer and closer.
Injuries are for jerks
I want to preface this rant by saying it is purely subjective and I have not even tried to justify it by looking up an hours worth of stats. I’ll call it a gut check and we’ll go from there.
Injuries to your players in Fantasy basketball are bad. But they are not the end of the world, especially if those players have unique skill sets. And it is within this space that I believe the vast majority of fantasy guru’s overestimate the negative of a particular player if they have even a pretext of injury history, remembering I don’t give a shit about Roto leagues. This is purely H2H and it is also based on there being at least some bench spots.
What brought this stunning revelation to my attention was staring at a couple of names. Andrew Bogut and Troy Murphy. Across a wide range of opinions this off-season, I have seen their names dowsed in petrol, lit and left to burn. I scream silently at my computer, making silly faces along the way whenever I see this occurring. I can nearly understand it on some semi-rational understanding of fantasy basketball but then I snap back to my own little world and I scream (silently of course) some more. These two players, one being a member of the rarest of fantasy species, a true center and the other an elite outside big man threat, bring a cache of skills which are extremely unique.
Andrew Bogut might not have been the best center in fantasy basketball last year but he was a bloody good one who produced nightly for that Bucks team hell bent on proving a bunch of people wrong. He also missed the fantasy playoffs thanks to a god-awful injury which could only happen to Australia’s best ever NBA player and now he seems to be paying for that via his ADP. Yet what is the reality of the situation? He is gearing up for his first pre-season game this weekend. He says himself he will be playing in pain all season but that he will make it work. Now, in fantasy terms Bogut still played 69 games last season. That means he missed 13 which is all of 3.5 typically game weeks. He was a mid-tier center, drafted at about 70. Yet, if someone told me today that Bogut would play 65 games this season, I would still take his 15/10/2 over other Center options who average less but have a lesser injury risk (Examples of current higher ADP: Paul Millsap, Andrew Bynum, LaMarcus Aldridge). Why? Because if you are lose 3 game weeks by a total of 20 boards and 5 blocks, your team doesn’t deserve to competing. There are other ways to fill that void but for those other 18 game weeks, you are best placed to dominate the competition.
The same goes for Troy Murphy. He has played 3 straight seasons of low 70ish games. He starts this season with a lower back strain. But you know what else? He averages a bucket load of threes and 10+ boards per game. Any other takers in that category? Nope. He puts your small ball team so far over the top in most situations, those 8-10 games pale into insignificance. Obviously if his back is more serious, fair enough, and drop him down a couple of ranking spots. Yet too many people are willing to completely write players off because of missed games. In H2H, it takes a week of concentrated domination in 5 categories to earn a ‘W’. One player, with the exception of perhaps the top 3-4, make that difference. A good team can absorb the hit in games missed, but make it count three-fold when that player is on the floor and producing.
I’m not advocating drafting every player with an injury risk that you happen to love. I’m saying that you can deal with these players if you use and draft them strategically. The upside of Bogut and Murphy are their talent and ability to produce big, fairly unique numbers. You can guarantee that production if you lock in an early draft pick. You can lessen the risk by drafting a back up plan, by handcuffing bench players, by trading later in the season and a host of other options. All of this mitigates the original risk and allows you to easily draft a player who might have the potential for injury. Just think of very recent examples. Anyone who ‘took a chance’ on Gerald Wallace last season (paid off in spades). Anyone who jumped on board the Marcus Camby bandwagon. The dude everyone probably laughed at when they selected Nene. You can bet the exact same things will happen this year with regard to the above players mentioned and the likes of Blake Griffin and Yao Ming (who is already playing well past his designated minutes per game).
Anyone can get injured, but with a little bit of planning and dynamic thinking, you can walk the ground where others fear to tread and reap the rewards.
The little things in life
What’s the best thing about fantasy basketball in the two weeks before the season starts? Sifting through mock drafts? Looking at what the experts reckon about your favorite player? Draft day? These all pale in comparison to the sheer excitement generated from the unknown. Because, as the following (true) story will demonstrate, everyone is correct at this stage of the season.
My work days can be pretty dreary. Sitting at a computer all day. Staring at the whitewash walls. Reading bureaucratic rubbish. It’s all there. Yet often they are sparked by the sneakiest of emails. Slyly written comments designed to infuriate even the most placid of people. Thankfully, yesterday was one turned from a dreary day into a hilarious day when this quote hit my inbox:
“Maybe I’ll draft the entire Wizards starting 5 and watch you implode when they win 60 games.”
Now, to most people… OK, to nearly every single fantasy basketball player alive, this wouldn’t be worth two seconds of your time. But this spawned nearly a day and half of discussion centered around the Wizards, Gilbert Arenas and fantasy basketball in general.
To set the scene. My house-mate is a one-eyed Wizards fan who believes Gilbert is the greatest athlete to ever grace the streets of downtown D.C. Right now, I am staring at a giant Arenas poster which adorns his door. As soon as you walk in the front door, bang, Gilbert is staring straight at you with some great big, freaky looking dark eyes. Anyway, this is what occurred over the course of the afternoon:
“Could “international blogger extraordinaire” give us his opinion on one Andray Blatche? 8pts, 2 3ptm, 4 rebs, 3 dimes, 1 blk, 1 steal at the half against a full strength Hawks team. Yummy – he definitely gets drafted between pick 30-40. Zards’ by 14 at the half (sans Arenas)”
Countered by:
“Blatche prediction: 15 points, 7 boards, 2+ steals/blocks, 0.7 threes.
Comment: Susceptible to poor behaviour and uncertainly surrounding injury. Just locked up contract extension. Possible lack of motivation. Nothing special here. Move along now.
Draft: Late 5th round.”
Just to make things more interesting, an unfortunate soul who gets included in these email conversations asked about Hibatchi and his predictions for the coming season. To wit;
“Stats: 20ppg, 2 3s, 3 rebs, 4 ast, 1.3stl
Penny has finally dropped with Arenas – he’s dropped the goofy gimick and is taking his game seriously. Will slot over to the SG spot (his true position) and will benefit from having a pass first PG leading the break and enjoying open 3 shots. Is fit and healthy, and while he will always be limited by his knee injuries, will outperform Kevin Martin who is rubbish. How many SGs can average 5+ assists? AND 2 3ptm a game?
Drafted? 3rd-4th round
The end.”
Now, I have to admit this had my chuckling after the opening sentence. My love for KevMartin was getting walked all over for no good reason. I could not take this lying down!
“17 points, rubbish FG% (as usual), poor FT% for a SG (75%), 2.5 boards, 3.8 assists (not 5+), 1.7 threes, 1.5 steals, 3+ TURNOVERS.
The fake moody Gilbert Arenas blows up by weel 5 after he isn’t getting as much as the ball as he wants. The offense stagnates. Worst 3FG% in career as he starts chucking up the ball whenever he touches it. Misses 15+ games to due moodiness and nagging injuries.
“How many SGs can ave 5+ assists and 2+ 3ptm?” Maybe O.J Mayo. Not Gilbert Arenas.
Drafted: Late 6th round. After Ray Allen, Kevin Martin and OJ MAYO. Game over.”
Anyway, this is a small picture of my world at work (for a very small percentage of the time it must be added). Perhaps this is a tad self-indulgent for a fantasy page (apparently the first rule of fantasy sports is no-one cares about your team/league) but I couldn’t really give a damn. The truth is that both Blatche and Arenas probably lie somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. Both have an opportunity to perform in environments which they haven’t seen in before (Arenas as the full time off guard and Blatche as a starter) and if everything goes right, the Wizards might even crack a solid playoff birth. Who knows? What I do know is that talking smack about fantasy basketball in the days just before the season starts is the best way to spend a day, bar none.
13 Predictions
I see lots of lists everywhere I look on basketball blogs at the moment. The internet + fantasy + basketball = lists. Why aren’t I getting in on that action I asked myself? Probably because I don’t do anything the easy way was the response. BUt times, they are a changing. So here is a proper list, with an arbitrary number of points on a specific subject.
13) Kevin Martin will play more games than Gilbert Arenas and also have more fantasy value. Boom. Take that email argument from two days ago. This came out of a discussion with my Gilbert Arenas loving house-mate who thinks that Arenas is about to turn into the next incarnation of Pistol Pete Maravich. Apparently when John Wall is the savior, miraculous things happen to players who have lost their way. I call absolute balony on the grandest of scales. I do think Arenas will provide fantasy value but a top 5 SG? Nope. Lead the league in 3PTM? Nope. He will continue to shoot a terrible clip for FT% and manage a way above average TO rate for a SG. Kevin Martin on the other hand is about to light it up, Rockets style. He is playing for a smart coach and embedded in the highest basketball IQ team in the league. He has zero pressure on his shoulders with Yao and Brooks running the show. I can easily see 20+ points per night, with multiple threes, a wicked FT% and best of all, a career high FG%. He will miss time but 70+ games is to be expected.
12) DeMarcus ‘Boogie’ Cousins will win fantasy rookie of the year. This is mainly because of what he won’t do, as opposed to what he will do. John Wall will also put up big numbers, but like every rookie point guard to ever have played, his FG% will be somewhere in the dirt and his turnover numbers will be through the roof. Cousins has the advantage of being a big man who comes in as the most NBA ready rookie of those selected in the lottery. For fantasy, this means relatively low turnovers, higher FG% while still doing things like score, board and block. There are no negatives here people unless he has a brain explosion. The more I see of Cousins, the more I get this feeling that Sac-Town are going to fall in love with him and Evans running the place ragged. While he might initially battle for minutes, by Week 6 he will be playing 30+ night in, night out. You can’t keep a good thing down.
11) Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James will all average within 4 points of each other. Every time the Heat get mentioned, all I see are camera flashes and smirks on faces accompanied by a loud groan from the NBA masses. It has already reached that point. However this is not just a story about one player. Or two. It’s going to be about all three. People will look back and Chris Bosh could well be the reason why this all worked out fine, or why it all crashed in flames. He has to want it at least a thousand times more than his play in Toronto suggests. He will get his points in all kinds of manners which we can’t even understand yet. Left unguarded under the basket, dropping 18 foot jump shots with no-one chasing him down, alley-oops from distance. This season will have it all for Chris Bosh and that means points, points and more points. I’ll put it officially at 22.9 per game, which would be more than enough to stay within the margin of Wade and James. It also makes him a very attractive fantasy option, one of a handful of 20/10 guys out there. He still probably can’t block, but those points will be some of the most efficient in the league.
Baby Davis didn't make the cut for 2010-11 predictions
10) Jameer Nelson will storm back into some form and be one of those pesky point guards that seems to have a blinding week for your opponent but against no-one else. Two seasons ago, despite playing only 42 games, Nelson was the bee’s knees as a second tier point guard. He has never been one for a cache of assists but he has the ability to turn it on when required. In that 2008-09 season, he averaged 2 3ptm, 1+ steal and amazing efficiency. His drop off has been pretty substantial since then, as he struggled with injury and the arrival of Vince Carter. But Nelson is the glue guy for Orlando this season. Carter hasn’t proved anything and may get moved before the deadline. Rashard Lewis is stuck in major funk from which I don’t think there is an escape. The thing is, this Magic team is only good enough when it really counts when Jameer is in top gear. Chris Duhon and Jason Williams are capable but small spells will be the order of the day. If the rumors about Dwight Howard’s offensive game (I think I’ve heard this one before though) are true, it’s only going to contribute. I’m not advocating you take Nelson anywhere in particular for your squads just that he’ll bounce back and cause some pain for opponents at some point during this season. He is too good not too.
9) The proliferation of the 1-1-1 guy. Last season we only saw two players actually record more than 1 three, 1 steal and 1 block every game over the course of the season and they are called Durant and James. Many others were close, but close sorta don’t cut it in my books. This season, there will be a rash of 1-1-1 players crowing their talents from the treetops. A certainty you can add to the list is Dwyane Wade. But let us focus on some more low key guys. Whatever you think about Channing Frye, as he seems to be a pretty polarising player in fantasy circles, he should average more than 27 minutes a game and in turn, nudge up his steals (0.8) and blocks (0.9) from last season to walk on hallowed turf. Andrea Bargnani should easily make this list but can’t steal a ball worth a damn. Last season he only managed 0.3 per game. Lazy? Perhaps but if he is going to be ‘da man’ in Toronto, this will have to change. There are a pair of Knicks (Gallo and Azubuike) who will be there about. If you are a Rudy Gay believer (and I’m not) then his 0.8 3ptm and 0.8 blocks totals are disappointing for a player of his ability but I don’t see him busting many balls on the court given his massive pay day. The most promising candidates though are those who were short, but only managed to play limited minutes. Nic Batum and Michael Beasley fit the bill here. And a flier? Troy Murphy only averages 0.4 blocks per game but playing alongside Brook Lopez and coming across with help defense could, in some far off fairy land, bump this total up.
8) Serge Ibaka will start for the Thunder and become the Chris Anderson for the next decade. The playoff series against the Lakers was Ibaka’s coming out party. Despite losing that series, Air Congo as he is affectionately known to OKC supporters was a monster. Against the best big combination in the league and the eventual NBA champions, Ibaka held his own defensively for long periods of time (25 minutes per game) over the 6 games. He isn’t exactly an offensive mega star in waiting but with Durant and Westbrook as teammates it’s not exactly an issue. But he can block. And block and block. So, instead of picking Chris Anderson with that 11th round pick, aim for Ibaka in the 10th instead just to make sure you nab him.
7) Old guys will continue to make fools of the haters out there. I’m talking mostly about three guys. Marcus Camby, Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. For the past two years I have been railing against anyone who brings their names up, deriding them for believing in players who cannot keep doing what they do. Yet they keep on keeping on regardless of what anybody says. Perhaps this is my personal mea culpa, an apology to what I believe have been overrated old fantasy stars but in reality they are just plain fantasy stars like everyone else. Steve Nash led the league in assists last year. Marcus Camby finished the season with a top 25 overall fantasy rank regardless of what system you use. Jason Kidd has missed 3 games in the past 2 seasons while throwing down three pointers with alarming regularity (+2 per game) and amazing accuracy (+40%), not to mention the 9+ assists and 5+ boards. Each of these guys have slid down draft boards over the past month because of concerns about age but what makes this year so much different? Nothing.
Steve Nash as he was originally intended
6) Twitter will make you more competitive in your league. If you are reading this blog, you probably know what twitter is. That said, unless you are a junkie, this isn’t going to apply to you. You know those people, scanning their phones every 15 seconds not because they got a text message from an actual friend but because they racked up another 3 @ replies. Those people. Well, they have an advantage over you and your reliance on Rotoworld to update you on the latest player movements, injuries and form. You are officially 1-2 hours behind the twitterati who if this were last season, have already picked up Darren Collison as Chris Paul is still sitting on courtside wondering what just happened. Twitter explodes at key moments because someone is always watching the news as it’s happening and this news spreads like wide fire, first on Twitter then to other parts of the internet and finally to the mainstream. If you think catching the scores on SportsCenter when you get home is going to cut it in 2010-11 for your fantasy news, you have another thing coming my friend.
5) Elton Brand will be the player who most outperforms his Average Draft Position. I know this is a big call considering it’s normally some rookie or super back up who was not even drafted in the vast majority of leagues, but I think Brand is just going to kill it this season. This comes from someone who dislikes watching 76er games so much, if it happens to be one of the two televised games that week in Australia, it doesn’t get tivo’d. Doug Collins is on the record as a big Brand supporter. He is fully recovered from his injury. All signs point to a massive boast. One the other side, his name is often mentioned as a 4th or 5th option at PF and nowhere I read is even the least bit excited in him. Perhaps wisely, but I don’t understand how a player with as much talent as he obviously does can continue to suck for so long. 34+ minutes, 19/9 with 2+ blocks.
4) As opposed to the above, Paul Pierce will be the most disappointing player related to his ADP. On the latest yahoo big board he is late 4th round. Pierce was a great player. He led his team when it was going through the worst era of the franchise. He led the league in scoring. He adapted his game when necessary over the past three seasons. But he looks OLD. With KG fit and better than ever (compared to the last two seasons anyway), Rondo taking on more and more responsibility and the combination of Ray Allen and Nate Rob in the backcourt and Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal in the front spells the least reliance on Pierce since he was a rookie. He will still get minutes, still do that annoying head fake, draw the contact crap that has been his bread and butter for years but the excitement and the bang for your buck is way over. 14-15 points with filler (2-3 assists, 3-4 boards, 1.2 3ptm) is fine for the Celtics this season but the problem is, that’s not 4th round material.
A picture tells 1000 words
3) Kid Delicious (aka Kevin Durant) will be the most dominant fantasy player since Garnett’s 2003-04 season. The gap between KD and whoever ends up as the 2nd option is going to be spectacular (barring injury). Sure, he is a consensus number one pick everywhere you look, but his dominance is going to be unbelievable. Box scores are literally going to explode with goo half way through the 3rd quarter. I’m big on going over the top, so let’s not stop at the 2000 word count. Toss out the pencil, grab your permanent marker and write this down: 33 points, 9.5 boards, 50/40/90 with 1.8 threes, 3+ steals/blocks. Eat it Chris Paul. (post script: as I was finishing this post up, this was on twitter about KD and partying. EXACTLY why he is number 1)
2) Tyreke Evans will play beautiful, exquisite basketball for the Kings but this will not translate into first round talent. I just saw this tweet from Steve Alexander (head of Rotoworld NBA) saying that he is going late first round/early second round in all of his drafts. Which makes me sick. There is no doubt he is an ungodly talent on the basketball court but one quarter of pre-season hoops against the Clippers does not mean he can shoot threes or make free-throws all season long. Sorry, just the truth.
1) Luol Deng will continue his domination of Rashard Lewis. This one is for my boy Jason over at fbasketballblog who is forever doubting the talents of Britain’s greatest export. If you are still reading, I’m sorry to end on such a middle of the road kind of thing but this is going to become my singular achievement for the season after the inevitable collapse of my fantasy teams by about week 15. Deng has been biding his time but now it has arrived. He has always flirted with being a major piece of the puzzle and now that Derrick Rose has matured a little, Joakim Noah is a beast in the middle and Kyle Korver is running around jacking threes, Deng is left to hit his stride and carry his load on offense. While Rashard Lewis might be making $19.5 MILLION US DOLLARS this season (this point needs to be emphasised over and over again with every bricked three point attempt), he cannot compete!
Other people’s good work
Jeez people produce some solid fantasy analysis in October. This period is a bit like the week before NYEs. Everyone is excited for a mad party, the planning goes to the next level and it’s just a generally good period. Hopefully the start of the NBA season produces more than my standard NYEs party (the shame of being in bed before the fireworks go off).
Prime examples:
GMTR produce 25 Centers and things get ugly towards the end. As is standard everywhere I read, Andrew Bogut and Greg Oden are undersold because of ‘injury concerns’ (OK, maybe there is a grain of truth to this but I want to BELIEVE!) while Marc Gasol seems to be made of gold.
LIJAFBB is high on Nic Batum and I am in grand agreement. The dude can flat out ball. I’ve never been a LaMarcus fan but perhaps ’tis the season?
FbasketballBlog takes on the Denver Nuggets and earns a green mark of respect from me. Team previews are horrible to read when done wrong, but this site produces in spades… short, sharp, simple. Fantasy analysis the way it should be (he also links to AWESOME pictures on his twitter account)
FantasyBasketballDaily has all your injury updates. For the record, his dislike of Yao Ming is not shared here but Nic Batum also gets a mention here. He will soon be wide awake to the fantasy world.
Razzball hits up pairings for the first round. I particularly like his take on Danny Granger about going big, it’s like a match made in heaven. But unlike them, I would be very willing to take Amar’e. They say “nerve-wracking winter”, I say “Unlimited potential”. These guys always have solid conversations rolling on the bottom of their threads too, so hit up the comments!
For some non-fantasy related goodies, I really can’t go past Doc Funk. His latest had me in tears when it came to Vince Carter and LeBron James. Good stuff.
And finally, I’m sure you’ll know Trey Kerby but thank god he has moved on from BDL to a more natural home. Hopefully we get more of this all season long.
Why Keith Smart is not actually that smart
It’s been a strange month for fantasy basketball followers. So many questions, so few answers. Is Carmelo really going to play for the worst franchise in the modern era? Is Shaq actually going to help my fantasy team anymore than he is going to help Boston (ie: not a lot)? Did I make a mistake by drafting Greg Oden in the 5th round after he said he wasn’t going to play in the opener (nahhh)?
But for me, the two biggest questions are splitting my world apart at the seems. For the last 4 months, I have been spruiking Stephen Curry as the second coming of a strange Rajon Rondo/Anthony Morrow combination of awesomeness. To anyone who would listen (and I mean the three guys on my regular email chats who have little choice), I have been saying how I will draft him at #4 just because I can. After drafting Dwyane Wade #2 in 2008 and Kevin Durant at #4 last season, I feel ready to fully proclaim to the entire fantasy basketball world I am god’s gift to first round analysis. This was to be the icing on the freakin cake. I had started remembering where all the ‘experts’ had Curry on their lists (typically between 6 and 12). But that’s not HIGH enough I screamed to myself in front of a computer screen. While listening to the modest natured lyrics of Kayne West, I liked to imagine Mid-December when Curry had just produced another 40-13-8 game despite GSW losing by about 15. My smile was wide, my taunts stinging in their wittiness. The world was a glorious place in mid-december 2010 for my fantasy team.
Lo and behold. On one swift September night, my dreams were dashed. Keith Smart. My new nemesis. Do you know that his head coaching record is 9-31??? Even Don Nelson was better than that. Sure, it was with the Cavs the season before they got LeBron, but whatever. Today, I read this:
Smart said his style will be more structured than Nelson’s. His rotation, scheme, and use of players will be more traditional. That figures to be most evident on defense.
What?!?! He does realise he is coaching the Warriors right? This is exactly like when Kayne went all 808s on everyone. To add insult to injury, apparently Curry thinks the leaders in the locker room right now are David Lee and Scooter Boy. Well, isn’t that just dandy. Anyway, getting a bit more serious. Curry has definitely had a bit of a hit in value by recent events. I don’t like the chatter about less minutes, more defense and generally trying to win games instead of just accumulating stats. My first round resume might have to hibernate for the season because I am too depressed at the moment to even think about what happens if I land the 4th pick in my draft in 3 weeks. I am still in a frame of mind about just drafting him anyway and sticking the finger up at anyone who disagrees. But I feel my resume would suffer mightily.
(other notes from extremely limited research: the warriors have not had an all-nba player since 1994 when Sprewell was a first teamer; andris biedrins is a co-captain but didn’t get mentioned by Curry because he can’t shoot free throws; and most amazing of all… Jeremy Lin is freakin’ 6’3 and 200lbs… this kid is going to be a monster – apart from that last one, I’m trying to say that the Warriors suck)
The other question for me…. WHAT THE HELL DID MATT BUSER WRITE SUCH A SIMPLE TO UNDERSTAND STRATEGY ARTICLE THAT ALL OF MY FRIENDS HAVE NOW READ??? Thanks for nothing Matt. But lucky for me, he missed a couple of strategies. The first, obviously enough, is to ignore turnovers. Oh wait. That’s not a strategy. It’s what every single ESPN writer advises you to do because they are fucking morons. It’s also what all my friends do anyway (see what I did there? Clever). But really, where is the ignore rebounds strategy? Maybe Buser had a deadline to meet, but seriously, how could that one not work. Kevin Love? Overrated. Ben Wallace? Possible the worst selection in the world. Drew Gooden? Please send me your cash. So, here is the Weakside Help guide to winning your league by ignoring rebounds;
Draft Deron Williams. This is the only value you will get in the first round.
Proceed to draft Josh Smith (2nd – you still need blocks/steal and he will be scoring this season), Steve Nash (3rd) and Andrea Bargnani if he is still available in the 4th, otherwise go for Kevin Martin or J-Rich, as both are set for monster seasons. Yeah, I went there.
This is where it gets tricky. You know you really wanna grab Channing Frye, but also know that he is a massive chump and swore you would never again have him on your roster. You should have thought about that before deciding to dump boards my friend. He is a must have in any strategy as ridiculous as this. At some point, throw in a sharp shooter or three (Ray Allen, Marcus Thornton or Baron Da…. Allen or Thornton will do). Now we need some blocks and FG%, without over paying for redundant rebounds. Did someone say Tyrus Thomas? Yeah I did. Round it out with big dudes who like to play small, or small guys who like to play small. My boy Luol Deng, Al Harrington, Nicolas Batum, Andre Miller and Kelenna Azubuike (only because I love his name)
Really. I don’t understand why no-one has ever done this before. I mean, if someone tweeted me this;
“@fourpointplay Guess what? Just drafted the maddest team eva – Williams/JSmoove/Nash/Bargs/Frye/Allen/Thornton/TyTHomas/Deng/Harrington/Batum/DreMiller/Kelenna…. Say WHAT!?”
I’d be super impressed that they; a) hacked twitter and somehow made the longest recorded tweet in the world, and b) actually thought they had any idea they knew what they were doing….
My point? Strategies are all well and good. Just make sure you know what you are doing and don’t pick a bunch of players someone suggests. Each team requires building and you are not always going to have the option to pick whoever you want in a specific round.
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While I haven’t blogged in awhile, I have still been reading a bunch of really good stuff out there. Can I just say, I love giggling at fantasy basketball posts and the below links made me giggle because…
of the awesome picture of Keanu wearing a helmet
people thinking Dwight Howard isn’t worth a first round H2H pick (and the thought of Jameer Nelson actually being able to get past Rajon Rondo)
I love Al Thornton’s new nick name…
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I was going to run a Weakside Help fantasy league this season, but since I have not blogged for a month and whatever, I presume no-one is actually reading this post so I think I will postpone till next year. If you are a bit of a loner and don’t have anywhere to play, head over to Razzball who are running three leagues. I’m sure GMTR will also run leagues. Whatever you do, don’t play in public chump leagues. If it’s really that bad, leave a comment and we’ll see if we can get one going.
The Triple Double Threat
There are many things in fantasy basketball which light a fire in my belly. Brook Lopez, Greg Oden’s blocks per36, Kevin Martin at the free throw line. All delicious, all the time. But there is something even greater than all of those put together and that is the player who earns the right to be called a Triple-Double Threat (TDT). The TDT is a mysterious individual. Sometimes short, sometimes slow. Sometimes he will appear from nowhere, dazzle with his talents and then disappear for weeks on end. Now they are not the be all and end all of Fantasy ball, but 10+ in three different categories is something to behold and has the ability to totally swing a game week for the better.
For the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season, there are some old timers, some new players and some surprises who could become the next TDT. They include;
Jason Kidd: Old Man River used to be the ultimate Triple Double machine. But last season, he topped out only twice. Reason? He couldn’t score enough baskets to reach 10 points. Kidd reached double digits 4 times in Boards and Assists without making it to 10 points. Poor effort on his behalf, but it shows he still has the fire within him to be a true TDT. Personally, I prefer my threats to be a bit bigger, a bit scarier and a more angry. Kidd fits none of these categories at all. Plus, he plays with Dirk. I bet that locker room is a barrel of laughs.
Rajon Rondo: The little green alien is the man these days when it comes to potential TDT. He had two triple-doubles in the playoffs alone last season, to go with his 2 from the regular season. However there were another four times last season when he was less than 3 combined boards/assists away from a triple-double. Did you hear that the Celtics aged even more during the off-season, except for their point guard? All this means more stats, more speed and more everything from the little guy. The TDT title is his to lose at this point, which is admittedly 8 weeks before the season even starts.
Andre ‘Don’t call me Iggy’ Iguodala: If you have to tell people to stop calling you something, you are a bit of a joke. AI9 as he prefers to be called (seriously?!) might not have actually accrued a trip-doub last season but was a constant threat, an important part of the TDT make up. Despite averaging 5.8 assists per game, Iggy only managed to break the 10+ assists four times in 2009-10. That means that, a) he is very consistent with his assists, and b) he is angry at me for calling him Iggy. With Evan Turner on board, together with the evolution of Jrue Holiday, I think his prospects for more stat stuffing triple-doubles might have diminished, however he can be the token guy who always makes a list like this.
Dwight Howard: D12 is the first player to make the list for something other than the stock standard points/boards/assists combo. The big fella doesn’t quite have the touch to rack up the assists, so instead uses two hands every night to count his blocks. Like Iggy before him, Howard didn’t actually manage a triple-double last season, but he did block 7+ shots four times, giving himself every chance. I’d love to see the big man do it as his smile would be wide enough to cover Stan Van Gundy’s belly.
Stephen Curry: As mad dog Nelson continues to bark orders which his players ignore, Stephen Curry continues to amass gigantic totals of everything. Lots of people used to get on board Chris Paul to get a quad-doub (4 categories with double digits for you mathematically challenged ball junkies), but my money is on Curry. The man steals a ball quicker than Iguodala falls over, which is very quickly. That said, Curry only actually achieved one trip-doub last season, so he is still a fair way from going to even greater heights.
Terrence Williams: T-Will is the next big thing in New Jersey, which is to say, he is relatively small fry to the rest of us. But man can the kid ball. When given the opportunity at the end of last season, he averaged 14 points, 7 boards and 6 assists over 7 games in April. The dude is a smooth operator who will surprise many this season with his ability to create stats from nowhere. A true sophomore TDT.
Boris Diaw: It pains me to put him alongside these other players but according to Hoopedia, he is “He is lauded for his unselfish, but assertive play, and his versatility also makes him a triple-double threat”. I have never seen anyone laud him for his assertive play, but whatever. They go on for a whole paragraph about his previous triple-doubles. There is another reason he makes this list. In 2008-09, he had a pretty nice stat line of 14/7/7/7… until you realise that one of those 7′s was his turnovers. Perhaps the only player in the league who is able to threaten a negative trip-doub, that being 10+ turnovers.
Some of these players are highly regarded first round picks in fantasy ball, others are just drifting along hoping you will pick them up so they can reach for that elusive goal of becoming a TDT.
(For the record, I know LBJ is probably going to average a triple-double this season. He is also a dick, thus gets no love)
Fantasy Basketball pop quiz
Did you know that last season, according to Basketball Monster rankings in 9 cat leagues, Kobe Bryant was ranked 13th?! That’s right, just in front of Troy Murphy and sitting pretty behind Chris Bosh. Were owners who took him at the 4 spot last season happy with that return? Probably not. He did fade off with his broken finger but no excuses here! Give that he is one year older, that the Lakers finally have a point guard who can actually be a point guard when required instead of hitting one big shot every 4 playoff games and the fact that Andrew Bynum is going to destroy everyone in his path this year, I would wait on Kobe a little bit longer than normal this draft. If you have a thing for Kobe, he will still produce but I’m going to call his decline into 2nd round value a permanent thing this coming season. Think a 2008-09 Paul Pierce. Get’s it done when required but suffers overall.
Did you know that Larry Sanders for the Bucks averaged 3.2 blocks per game at Summer League? Sure, it’s SL but still, that is pretty epic. And as the news reports of Andrew Bogut sink in, you can be certain that Coach Skiles will give up some minutes for the big rookie. In his third and final year at VCU, he was a 14 and 9 guy with 2.6 blocks per game. He has the size and college experience to make a fantasy impact from the get go. A real steal in the very late rounds or straight off the waiver (but be quick!) as your season gets going. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a Ben Wallace type of season from last year, lots of boards and blocks but not much on the offensive end. He also shows a flash of outside shooting ability, shown by his willingness to shoot the deep ball (1.2 attempts per game in Summer League).
Did you know that Charlie Villanueva is a freaking chump and you should not touch him with a 10 foot pole? I don’t care what anyone says about him going in the late rounds, you ask any owner from last year what they think of him and then go and look at the Pistons roster and you will find your answers. Greg Monroe, Austin Daye and my boy Jonas Jerebko are all young developing talent who could actually prove to be good players, unlike the ridiculously over paid chump who wears the number 31. I would prefer to pick no-one in the 13th round and wait to fill my spot after the first games of the season than have Charlie V sitting on my bench.
Finally, did you know that Yahoo Fantasy NBA has opened up for 2010? Bookmark it just over here. It’s actually only about 8 weeks till the season starts. Hot damn and I haven’t even done a prelim ranking list yet. Better get onto that. The front page tells me I finished 10th in the GMTR readers league and 2nd in the Self Esteem League. 2010 is the start of a dynasty, I can feel it in my bones. Hot tips: Tiago Splitter, Ray Felton and Yao Ming.
I’m in fBasketballBlog’s mock draft tomorrow morning so next up I’ll post some thoughts on good picks, bad picks and just downright crazy picks (I’m looking at you Doneycat)
OH! And before I forget. Is Fantasy Sports Insurance the greatest thing ever? Or am I just delusional?
New Fantasy Pastures: Leandro Barbosa and the Toronto Raptors
I was trying to produce something super fancy just now to amaze people but the last hour of my life was lost in a simple coding mistake. It’ll have to wait. Instead, let’s look keep looking at a few individual players. While Pau Gasol didn’t far too well in our attempt at character assassination, we are going to become a bit more positive and check out Leandro Barbosa who in the summer has shifted from the fantasy friendly beaches of Phoenix to the chilly shores of Toronto.
He may not be as fast as he once was, but things are definitely going to improve for LB and the Raptors.
Barbosa has always been able to score the ball, especially as his whole NBA career has been with the Suns. At his peak, Barbosa was a FreeDarko favorite who transcended the game. In 2006-07 he averaged 20 points, 4 assists and 2.6 threes. This was his high point (and the Suns) and since then, there has been a lot left to be desired. So much so, that last season he was pretty invisible, playing in 44 games but only managing 18 minutes and 9 points per game. This had much to do with the build up of young talent at the Suns such as Dragic and Dudley as his injuries which wouldn’t seem to leave him alone. Should fantasy minds be thinking he is a super injury risk after missing 38 games last season and 12 the season before that? Well he is playing in the FIBA World Champs next month and just yesterday put in a pretty solid effort against the Australian team (29 minutes, 14 points /2 threes). The campaign for the national team should actually put owners at ease as it puts some playing time into his game and ensures he should be ready for the NBA come October. It worked for Dwyane Wade in 2008 and there is no reason why it can’t work for Leandro in 2010.
But will the move to Toronto actually be any good for his fantasy game? We hear a lot about the Raptors and their inability to do much at all. Apart from Chris Bosh and sometimes Andrea Bargnani, not much happens north of the border. Jose Calderon is hot then so very cold. Hedo couldn’t make it work. Lots of bit players split stats (Jack, DeRozen, Johnson) but never are able to make a solid contribution which is worth anything other than a waiver wire pick up. They did have the 5th most points in the league last season, but that is very deceptive as their pace factor was a mid range 13th. They rank last in defense which is a serious disgrace when teams like the Wizards and Nets are around. From this, we can pretty conclusively draw that there is no real ‘Toronto’ factor at work unless it is a detrimental one.
However, the optimist within me really likes Barbosa this season. He should be the starting two guard but can always be the 6th man like he was at the Suns. The Raptors do get the ball up and down the floor as witnesses with their scoring. Calderon and Jack aren’t exactly leading the way, so there should also be times where Barbosa becomes the general on the floor. He has shown in the past he can pass, but it’s questionable if he wants to play that role. I can see more than a few highlight reels appearing involving him and either Weems or DeRozen as those kids have some serious hops and with the Brazilian Blur flying down the wings, at least the Toronto crowd might get a little excited at times. LB is not going to set the world on fire but he is going to make an impact. I’d pencil him in for 14-15 points, 3.5 assists and a solid source of threes. He will also chip in with steals and has a pretty decent FT% but only gets to the line max 3 times per game. It’s not going to blow your mind but there is also the chance he thrives in Toronto and becomes a serious player. God knows the Raps are in need of some help and icons. And if nothing else, when you draft him in the appropriate round, you can share with your friends this link, one of the funniest things I think I have ever seen.
Others aren’t so keen on him. GMTR says “Expect Barbosa to average in the neighborhood of 25-27 minutes a game with about 15 points with 1.5 threes a game”. FantasyBasketballDaily, “He was traded to Toronto, but finds himself in a crowded guard rotation with Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Linas Kleiza and DeMar DeRozan”. I think he will play 30+ minutes and really settle into life alongside some pretty average players. He is quick and can do his own thing.
Draft range: 62 (earliest) – 90 (latest, only if you play in a league which thinks missing 10 games is akin to playing for the Clippers)
