The worst game of the season
According to the peeps I follow on Twitter, the Washington/Sac-town game was atrocious. Ugly fouls, an inability to keep time, a distinct lack of defence. However, the ever optimistic account of the NBA used more fantasy friendly terms, describing the epic battle of sub .500 teams as a ‘wild win’.
What exactly does ‘wild’ mean? Here are a few thoughts. DeMarcus opened up by going 0-6 from the floor. ‘Sisco Garcia had a season-high 26 points. Nick Young (THE NICK YOUNG!) dropped 43 including 7 from down town. January 2011 will forever be known as the time when the Wizards used all 12 players including Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin. It doesn’t get much better for fantasy. Except… it does.
There is a myth out there that scoring and a million possessions per game maketh a fantasy player. Two theories are used frequently to uphold this supposed fact. They are the ‘Golden State Warriors theory of relatively little defence’ and the D’Antoni effect. Many a fantasy nerd will proscribe avidly to these two methods of thinking. One, that a random GSW player will be awesome that season because they will play 40 minutes and score a shit load of points. The other, any team coached by Mike D’Antoni is not going to worry about a half court offense, leading to higher possessions and more chances to accumulate precious box score statistics.
My thoughts are not in compatible with these two situations. For example, like every other dummy this season, I can see Dorell Wright is God’s gift to the waiver wire. Proveth theorum numero uno – with the small caveat of Reggie Williams who I remember at draft time was meant to be that player. Also, you cannot deny the D’Antoni effect on players such as Ray Felton, Landry Fields and Wilson Chandler. Felton and Chandler struggled before being turned into up and down machines, running the floor all day. However, again, there is the inevitable failures such as Anthony Randolph and to some extent this season, Danilo Gallinari who is struggling to click as the tempo has been raised from even last season.
BUT. The real issue is not with these two facets of fantasy NBA – it’s that people see this and presume because their possessions per game as so ridiculously high, this must be true for all teams and when teams start to play up tempo, it automatically produces fantasy results. Bringing us back to the Sacramento/Washington game and check out the rest of the box score after we move past Nick Young and Fransisco Garcia.
The previously mentioned DeMarcus Cousins had 8 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals and a block. Not bad until we see he shot 4-19 from the field and missed 4 free throws (2-6). This is the other side of fast paced, up and down basketball. Shots won’t drop. Turnovers appear (3 for DMC). John Wall might have dropped 22 points and 9 assists but he killed his fantasy value with 6 turnovers and 6 from 19 from the field. JaVale McGee, averaging over 2 blocks per game for the season was only able to swat one shot, whereas you might except 4-5 with the extra possessions and shitty front court from Sac-town. Apart from rebounds, steals and points, this type of basketball has absolutely no guarantees for fantasy purposes. Fringe players get hot, ride a streak then go cold again. FG% suffers, normally reliable players turn the ball over. Did I mention I get angry when the hot players are accidentally on my opponents roster? There is that too.
Anyway, I suppose what I’m trying to say is that points and rebounds and steals do not make a fantasy team (unless you play in the Carmelo Anthony fantasy league – 4 cats, plus FT%). A game full of defence might not bring the stars out to play, but if we look at the Minnesota/San Antonio game, we see a different picture. You might be screaming that of course there are better fantasy players in this game (Parker, Manu, Duncan, Love, Mili… OK, just joking). But that doesn’t obscure the fact that it was a 107-97 slop fest in which the teams shot a combined 42% from the field. However, the game produced more threes, just as many steals and only 2 less blocks – on 34 less possessions!
I’m not advocating abandoning fast paced basketball for fantasy players. They definitely can score a shiteload of points, giving you boosts across multiple categories. It’s just that it’s a very simple explanation for success. There is a reason that players like Luke Ridnour, Nic Batum and Ray Allen have value and it’s not because they play in run and gun offences. Too often this is overlooked in favour of the dude who drops 30 points because he took 20 shots in a ‘wild win’.
—
This shirt made me laugh. A lot.
This dude is smoking crack when he says he traded Howard and Harris for Billups, Jackson and Tyrus Thomas. His FG% and Turnovers just got destroyed and who knows what will happen to Billups. However I like the pick ups (Monroe is pimping right now) so it’s definitely worth a read.
Please go and give some credence to the fbasketball blog Fantasy All-Star ballot. I hear you can win a ticket to the big (fantasy) draft in October (on the internet).
Boring, Boring, Boring: Predictable Fantasy Players 2010-11
It’s round 12. You are sweating from your shitty computer overheating. You have run out of water/beer/vodka (circle as appropriate) but don’t want to get up because it’s pitch black apart from the dim lights of your screen. You just recently drafted a combination of DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Oden, Yao Ming, Wilson Chandler and Terrence Williams. You don’t know how it happened. You didn’t exactly aim for the most inconsistent bunch of flaky chumps this side of the 2009-10 Minnesota Timberwolves but it’s time to put your team back on track with some proven, although slightly boring, older hands. Deep breathes people, it will be OK;
Probably won’t be available in Round 12 but I liked the back story;
The statistical production of Ray Allen has been falling ever so slowly but so, so surely. Expect no less this season. On the plus side, he will not miss games, he will get his looks, he will be efficient. There is a reason this is titled boring, boring, boring and Ray Allen epitomizes this more than any other player in the league. He’s not flashy or in your face, he just does what he does, quietly yet predictively. I like O.J Mayo better this season but when it gets to that stage of the draft where Allen is on the board and you need a lock, there isn’t a better option at shooting guard.
Jason Terry is apparently overrated and has a ridiculously high ADP for his value according to these guys. Terry gets his minutes. Even with those role players last season he managed 33+ per game. He looks dropped off (-3 points) as did his long shots (-0.5). You just know though when you draft him, 1+ steal, 1.5+ steals, a delicious FT% on a pretty good number of attempts (3-4 per game) and super low turnovers. I must admit #65 is probably too high for my liking.
The Thunder can easily justify giving up max money to KD but the 2nd biggest story down in OKC this off-season is the lack of extension offered to Jeff Green. Maybe he isn’t getting it done on the court. As a fantasy owner though, you should know that he is playing for cash and that’s always a bonus. The problem with Green is his regression in his third season. Less points, boards and assists. Terrible drop off in 3FG%. It’s time to re-invent his game and it’s going to be pretty. You can bank the 15/6 and be confident he will be the 1/1/1 talent everyone recognises. And that’s about it. Lots of people avoid him for H2H (thinking he is a pure Roto stud) yet I don’t see it. Someone who chips in everywhere and is super consistent. The only reason people be hating is due to higher expectations and unfair comparisons.
The Truth, Paul Pierce, is another old dude who is going to drop off this season but the type of drop off is pretty predicable. Last season: 18/4/3, 1.5 3PM and 1.2 steals, 47%-85%. This season, same but reduced. 16 points, 3.5 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.2 3PM and 1.0 steals. Same percentages. You get the idea. It’s pretty simple. In Excel form it would look something like this: Production=(Previous Stats)/(Previous Age+365 days). Don’t input that bad boy into your spreads unless you want a nice #value? cell. In fact, you should probably forget about the Truth right now because some chump is going to take him waaay too early based on past reputation.
More typical 12th round suggestions;
Mike Conley is a dud, sorry Memphis fans. The number four pick from 2007 just cannot produce on the big stage. Conley is fine for 12/5 with about 45%. He’ll hit his three and grab a steal but nothing extra. He is lucky that the O.J Mayo @ PG was epic fail or his career would be spent on the bench. For fantasy 12th round purposes though, he is perfect. He can be your third back up PG who sits there all year, looking pretty. Don’t think of it as a wasted pick. There is even a little dash of upside if Rudy Gay, Mayo, Randolph and Gasol all go down with ‘flu-like symptoms’ for months of end.
For some unbeknown reason, whenever I see Beno Udrih’s name in print, I automatically pronounce it ‘Udrick’. Dunno why, just always have. Moving on. A lot of people will automatically assume because Tyreke Evans is a stud, anyone playing in the back court with him would be worthless. Wrong. Uridh averaged a career high in points and threes and tired his career highs in steals and assists last season. He played a solid 31 minutes a game. He is still the starting point guard on an up and coming team. Not exactly the first option but there will be a stackload of opportunity to manufacture some production. You can bank some pretty similar stats from last season (13/5 with steal/three). Not special, but worthy at the right (deep) spot.
Brendan Haywood is not exactly in a good place right now. After he moved to the Mavs last year he only averaged 26 minutes per game. Now he will be splitting time with Tyson Chandler. Yet in those 26 minutes, he still managed to construct 8 points, 7.5 boards and 2 blocks per game. Not bad at all. Keep an eye on him if you are going big and it starts to get a bit risky. He is nice insurance in case anything else goes wrong.
Like Haywood, Jarrett Jack is not loving his career right now. Sure he is the starting PG but it’s at possibly the worst team in the NBA and he has one of the best European point guards sitting right behind him. Despite all of this crap, Jack has obviously taken ‘Point Guard 101′. In 27 minutes per game last season he averaged 11.4 points and 5.0 assists. He has a wicked three point shot (+40% on 2.4 attempts) and shoots solid percentages (48/84 last season). All in all, he is like everyone else on this list. Wouldn’t cause a ripple in most places but plods along and gets the job done. When you are throwing up your late round flier of ‘random rookie pg x’, just pause one second and think if you have perhaps taken too many risks already? You probably haven’t but what the hell…
My housemate, myself and some bloke looking decidedly fed up by our shitty camera man
A worthy cause
Normally I like to think of the internet as a giant, free, ball of goodness. Then you think a little bit harder at your favorite sites and you quickly realise that certain people put in an amazing amount of work to maintain them and keep them awesome and up to date. This is the case is nearly everything which isn’t run for profit and purely for the joy of seeing others enjoy your work or the reward you get from writing, perhaps to escape real life which gets too hard sometimes.
Anyway, my favorite fantasy basketball site is GMTR and unlike last year, they aren’t putting a price on their fantasy advise, despite it being kick ass awesome. More fittingly (at least in my humble eyes), they are asking for donations. Nearly every punk on the internet has a paypal account, so it’s pretty easy, even if it’s only a couple of dollars. As an example of their work, this stuff on effective shooting is probably the one of the most useful and original spreadsheets I have come across this year.
Moving on from the gooey stuff, here are some other links;
Center rankings from Fantasy Hoopster. This stuff is awesome, Centers are the hardest spot to get right in drafts and Fantasy Hoopster has nailed it in this post.
FantasyBasketballDaily has all the updates on the latest bit players, including injuries, starting spots and other stuff.
fBasketballBlog has his take on the top 5 potential busts of the upcoming season. I agree with it all (except where is Rashard Lewis?)
Damn Lies and Statistics does the New Jersey Nets. It’s hard to make the Nets exciting, but there is some success here.
Finally, good luck to everyone drafting this weekend and in the week ahead. Remember, prepare… then throw it all out the window when you see some upside! It’s a philosophy where you might not win but you’ll have fun.
Draft Day Essentials
I bet you have a shiteload of draft stuff slowly assembling on your computer somewhere. Probably positional lists, definitely a top player list and, if your nerdy enough, some select tables from basketball monster informing you about that elite 12th round pick that everyone else has overlooked.
But if that’s all you have, your in trouble. There are many essentials on draft day which you cannot find on the Yahoo Fantasy site. They are the intangibles which get your over the line in a tight spot or help you decide on whether Rudy Fernandez deserves that 13th pick.
Favorite Jersey: The most obvious one, regardless of an online draft or a real, in the flesh experience, is your treasured jersey. Professionals might scoff at this because they don’t actually watch basketball but they are shmucks and deserve your scorn (in the upcoming section). For the last three years I have been hunting a Shawn Kemp SuperSonics yellow/green away jersey from the early 1990′s. When I eventually get my hands on it, my league is over. From the moment you put it on, you feel comfortable. Warm and fuzzy even. You might only wear it once a year, but hot damn, you’ll do it justice today. That is unless, you adorn one of the bazillion Kobe Bryant tops which ensure this world eternal damnation. This year, I’m going with my Danilo Gallinaro t-shirt to change things up. I look forward to crushing Mr Reversible Vince Carter just like last season.
Lucky Charm: I figured out the reason why I have come 2nd over the past two seasons. I had no lucky charm. That all changed the day I walked into probably the worst arena in the NBA, the Izod Center, Middle of Nowhere, New Jersey. While watching the Nets get beat up by Kevin Durant and the Thunder wasn’t the worst NBA game I ever saw, it was pretty awful. Lucky for me, at half time, I bought the biggest cup of drink in the world. This cup is plastic, white and has a red strip about 3/4 of the way up which reads, “Nets”. Real imaginative. I carried that cup from New Jersey, back to New York and all the way back to Australia. If I don’t make the playoffs, that cup is history. The point of this is that you need a lucky charm if you really wanna make a push for the epic win. If your jersey is your lucky charm, you may as well stop reading this because, to quote the product on a drunken night spent in a dorm room, “isssss ovaaaaaaa!”
Smack Talk: Draft day wouldn’t be a draft day without smack talk. The more vicious, the better. My efficiency at work has been slipping through the floor in the past couple of weeks as the emails begin to ramp up after a quiet off-season. I get constant reminders (thanks Cal) about Yi and his (in)ability to hit threes. The best put downs work on past mistakes. You know your friend who drafted Andre Miller in the 6th round last year because he didn’t realise he had been traded to Portland? That’s the kind of thing you have to bring up again and again on draft day, just to get in his head. A classic put down works wonders. It instantly transforms the room into giddy laughter, makes your opponent feel small and weedy (always a plus) and gives you an immediate sense of satisfaction. Whoever you pick next is sure to dominate the rest of the season regardless of their murky drug history (Michael Beasley, come on down). This is draft day at it’s best.
The Back Hand Compliment: Some people would class this as a continuation of smack talk, but they would be wrong. More subtle, it’s like a critique of the latest stage show you saw. When it comes to the 2nd round and someone pounces on Brandon Roy, mention he is an awesome player… for the 60 or so games he can manage every year. Smirk (note: this does not work if you have just chosen Gerald Wallace).
Amusing Picture Link: This one obviously works better for online drafts (and if you know how to link to pictures when sitting around a table, things are a little unfair). The best thing about this is that depending on whether you think certain players are going to be good or bad this season, you can tailor the picture. Probably the best picture link this season will be some witty reference to the Amar’e picture adorning the most recent ESPN Mag. I know you can’t resist a snide comment.
If you have a live, in the flesh draft (which everyone should experience with their friends at least once in their life), make sure you include a pick time limit. This is ESSENTIAL. There is nothing worse than waiting for some jack-ass to pick Jason Kidd after mulling it over for 15 minutes. As if you’d pick him in the first place…. Beer helps in this situation.
The Triple Double Threat
There are many things in fantasy basketball which light a fire in my belly. Brook Lopez, Greg Oden’s blocks per36, Kevin Martin at the free throw line. All delicious, all the time. But there is something even greater than all of those put together and that is the player who earns the right to be called a Triple-Double Threat (TDT). The TDT is a mysterious individual. Sometimes short, sometimes slow. Sometimes he will appear from nowhere, dazzle with his talents and then disappear for weeks on end. Now they are not the be all and end all of Fantasy ball, but 10+ in three different categories is something to behold and has the ability to totally swing a game week for the better.
For the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season, there are some old timers, some new players and some surprises who could become the next TDT. They include;
Jason Kidd: Old Man River used to be the ultimate Triple Double machine. But last season, he topped out only twice. Reason? He couldn’t score enough baskets to reach 10 points. Kidd reached double digits 4 times in Boards and Assists without making it to 10 points. Poor effort on his behalf, but it shows he still has the fire within him to be a true TDT. Personally, I prefer my threats to be a bit bigger, a bit scarier and a more angry. Kidd fits none of these categories at all. Plus, he plays with Dirk. I bet that locker room is a barrel of laughs.
Rajon Rondo: The little green alien is the man these days when it comes to potential TDT. He had two triple-doubles in the playoffs alone last season, to go with his 2 from the regular season. However there were another four times last season when he was less than 3 combined boards/assists away from a triple-double. Did you hear that the Celtics aged even more during the off-season, except for their point guard? All this means more stats, more speed and more everything from the little guy. The TDT title is his to lose at this point, which is admittedly 8 weeks before the season even starts.
Andre ‘Don’t call me Iggy’ Iguodala: If you have to tell people to stop calling you something, you are a bit of a joke. AI9 as he prefers to be called (seriously?!) might not have actually accrued a trip-doub last season but was a constant threat, an important part of the TDT make up. Despite averaging 5.8 assists per game, Iggy only managed to break the 10+ assists four times in 2009-10. That means that, a) he is very consistent with his assists, and b) he is angry at me for calling him Iggy. With Evan Turner on board, together with the evolution of Jrue Holiday, I think his prospects for more stat stuffing triple-doubles might have diminished, however he can be the token guy who always makes a list like this.
Dwight Howard: D12 is the first player to make the list for something other than the stock standard points/boards/assists combo. The big fella doesn’t quite have the touch to rack up the assists, so instead uses two hands every night to count his blocks. Like Iggy before him, Howard didn’t actually manage a triple-double last season, but he did block 7+ shots four times, giving himself every chance. I’d love to see the big man do it as his smile would be wide enough to cover Stan Van Gundy’s belly.
Stephen Curry: As mad dog Nelson continues to bark orders which his players ignore, Stephen Curry continues to amass gigantic totals of everything. Lots of people used to get on board Chris Paul to get a quad-doub (4 categories with double digits for you mathematically challenged ball junkies), but my money is on Curry. The man steals a ball quicker than Iguodala falls over, which is very quickly. That said, Curry only actually achieved one trip-doub last season, so he is still a fair way from going to even greater heights.
Terrence Williams: T-Will is the next big thing in New Jersey, which is to say, he is relatively small fry to the rest of us. But man can the kid ball. When given the opportunity at the end of last season, he averaged 14 points, 7 boards and 6 assists over 7 games in April. The dude is a smooth operator who will surprise many this season with his ability to create stats from nowhere. A true sophomore TDT.
Boris Diaw: It pains me to put him alongside these other players but according to Hoopedia, he is “He is lauded for his unselfish, but assertive play, and his versatility also makes him a triple-double threat”. I have never seen anyone laud him for his assertive play, but whatever. They go on for a whole paragraph about his previous triple-doubles. There is another reason he makes this list. In 2008-09, he had a pretty nice stat line of 14/7/7/7… until you realise that one of those 7′s was his turnovers. Perhaps the only player in the league who is able to threaten a negative trip-doub, that being 10+ turnovers.
Some of these players are highly regarded first round picks in fantasy ball, others are just drifting along hoping you will pick them up so they can reach for that elusive goal of becoming a TDT.
(For the record, I know LBJ is probably going to average a triple-double this season. He is also a dick, thus gets no love)
Fantasy Basketball 2010: The First Round Dilemma Pt. 3
In this final part of our series, I’m going to glance at something many people shy away from because it looks too ghastly and unworkable. He’s heavy and he ain’t my brother… Dwight Howard ladies and gentlemen! In the Yellow corner, we have Pau Gasol, who despite being beaten over the head by my big stick when I was angry last week, has kindly agreed to show up again (for more beating). After reading all those Roto biased lists around the mainstream fantasy sites, you might already be blinking. How can we compare these two? Well, let me tell you. A well constructed team built around Howard will wipe the floor with most of the crud other people try and compete with. This is Head to Head ONLY. Remember that before you start ranting.
(Please note that this post is being written to this song on loop, so excuse me for the bad language)
Let me put it out right out there. I’ve never drafted Dwight Howard and might never do so. However, this isn’t about that. This is about if someone held a gun to your head and said “Howard or Gasol?”, what your answer would be (after clarifying that it wasn’t Marc Gasol because that is sensible). H2H fantasy basketball allows you do dump categories. Categories. Plural. My advice with Howard? Give yourself a competitive advantage and dump TOs along with FT%. This means instead of worrying about people cramping your style with their 3.5 turnovers per game (hello Monta Ellis), you can pick people well before other people even start considering them. Let me explain. You want to pick Stephen Jackson but you know people will laugh at you if you do it before the 4th round. However if you take out his FT% and his TOs, Jackson was ranked #34 last season. So go ahead and take him with your late 3rd round pick. No-one else is willing because he doesn’t conform to their standards of what ’3rd round value’ is, but he suits you perfectly with Dwight.
I know Dwight, I can't even believe we are debating this...
So, now we’ve established the way forward after we pick Howard, why should we pick Howard? Because quite simply, he has been a top 3 Fantasy H2H player in the last two seasons if you remove his FT% and TOs. That’s a pretty good reason right there. With league leading numbers in both boards and blocks, together with a pretty wicked FG%, you can literally bank those categories as long as you don’t pick like David Khan for the remainder of the draft. In some unsolicited advice, here are a list of players who go great with Howard – Rajon Rondo, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Stephen Jackson, Tyrus Thomas (god love him), Tim Duncan, Andrew Bogut, Rudy Gay, Trevor Ariza, Antwan Jamison, Lamar Odom, Blake Griffin and my personal favourite, Andris Biedrins. Sure, most of them are big guys who have trouble with their FT% but you can also trade target guards who are apparently having trouble with their stroke and steal them with lower value players than would otherwise be necessary. Drafting Howard is a great option. But that’s only Part A. Part B is where it all succeeds or collapses in a massive pile of horse crud. On Howard personally, can I just say I also think you will see an uptick in his FT% this season, per offsetting his absolute negative status as a FT% killer. Further, his offensive game gets better every off season and eventually he is going to pull it all together. Remember: He is 25 years old and hasn’t even entered the prime of his career.
I’ve actually tried very hard to like Pau Gasol. He played for years on a pretty average franchise. He did it with esteem and pride. He was not a dick when it came to winning. But despite this, I just don’t like the guy. Call me a hater, but that’s just the way I am. Recognising these facts, I’ll try to stick to the objective truth.
My favourite Pau Gasol picture ever.
Essentially, my argument boils down to this (in the post below about Pau Gasol):
Over the past three seasons with the Lakers, his FG% has steadily dropped from a high of 59% to 53% last season.
You know what I don’t like? A PF/C whose FG% drops consistently over 150 games with the same club. It’s just not very nice. What can we expect this year? Slightly less of everything. Gasol has a career average rebound per game of 9.0. Last season, he averaged 11.3. Yes he did play very well, but can we expect this again from a man who turned 30 in the offseason? Perhaps. But perhaps not. Can we expect his points to be maintained at such a high rate while the Lakers try and develop Andrew Bynum, who only just turned 23? Perhaps. Perhaps not. Will he play more than 75 games after missing 35 over the past three seasons? You know the rest by now. This is what is clear: Gasol is a first round draft pick in the vast majority of leagues. He is a very good fantasy player. He scores, boards, blocks and passes better than any other big man plus he is efficient. But with Gasol, at least in my eyes, you are unsure about his ability to turn it on, week after week, in a fashion that I want my big man to.
The end result? If you are not willing to punt categories, then Gasol is your man by a country mile. However Dwight Howard can be a very successful fantasy pick, even more so if you surround him by other players whose value increases by ignoring their faults. Relatively, it’s riskier – but hot damn, it’s exciting.
Endnote: I realise by putting in a photo with Pau Gasol and a Llama, I am probably not doing him justice. Sue me. If you want a Pau Gasol love blog, you can read all about it here.
C’mon man!
Real quick. ESPN and Yahoo have updated their draft lists and I want to make some mocking observations from my high horse.
I don’t know what Greg Oden did to the ESPN fantasy basketball guys, but he is languishing at #148. Sure, they might not have appreciated his special pictures in their editorial meeting, but this is craziness. If Oden isn’t off your board by #110, your league is adverse to being good. I’ve said it. There you go. Everyone knows he is a risk of breaking a leg again, but if last season with Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry taught us anything at all, it’s that risks are worth taking, especially in the 12th round. I do like T-Will and Anthony Morrow moving up, kudos and Darren Collison at #36 seems a tad high but a gamble, and I love that. We still don’t know if this is for Roto or H2H, or the categories. Please ESPN overlord, grace us with your knowledge.
Yahoo have gone with the old, chuck 4 people’s opinions in together and hope it makes a sensible list. I don’t know if this works particularly well. Example: When Mr Behrens (who I always pronounce in my head Biedrins) picks Derrick Rose at number 18 (I love Rose but 18?!) and everyone else leaves him out of their top 40. Who do I trust here? Anyway, their list is based on 9 cat Roto leagues which explains Howard’s position at #34. Other oddities. Biedrins has Amar’e at #22, Matt Buser has a man crush on Jason Kidd (#16) and Brandon Furston believes Brook Lopez is first round material. Overall, I think it’s a good representation of views and an interesting read. The best bit is that they dig into the top 30 of each position.
Fantasy Basketball 2010: The First Round Dilemma Pt. 2
Last week we checked out the argument for D Wade or Steph Curry in the first round. Given that I then went ahead and trashed my own advice in my first mock draft of the season (taking Curry at 9 and watching Wade go at 10), I don’t know how much stock you should put into the whatever ends up on the lines below. This time round, I think we’ll go with Danny Granger and Kobe Bryant.
Imma put it right out there and say on past form, it’s pretty hard to split these two. Kobe gives you better points, assists and FG%, while Granger has better threes, FT%, blocks and turnovers. The difference it split nearly down the line on boards and steals. Kobe has shown a capacity to play more games per season and that’s why he has tended to be a higher draft pick in the past. But here at weaksidehelp we are all about the future. Kobe was 32 last week. Granger is a relative punk, at just 27. Both first round picks? Yeah OK. But who do you want on your team this season?
Kobe Bryant has never been the fantasy darling of the NBA world. If it wasn’t KG hogging the limelight, it was LeBron James. Now it’s Kevin Durant. Bryant might be the toughest SOB on the court every night but his fantasy production is more akin to a reliable old clock, rather than knockout boxer who lands the massive blows. After playing every game of the 2007-08 and 2008-09 seasons, his broken finger gave him grief last year and he missed 9 games. However the most worrying sign for mine is that despite playing 4.6% more time per game last season than the season before, his stats flatlined. I know Kobe ain’t no standard Shooting Guard, but my senses start sensing when a shooters FG% dips, their 3FG% dips together with a significant increase in turnovers (0.6 more per game). Given the increase in playing time, there should have been a bigger jump in points (0.2), boards (0.2), assists (0.1) and steals (0.1) per game. With his usage up but production stagnant, it’s a nasty sign that the efficiency meter has been switched and the dreaded curse of 1000+ games has set in. I’m not going to write him off and I would still prefer 25/5/5 than a kick in the face, but at the same time, I’m actually worried that his form will continue to slide for fantasy purposes. Steve Blake will be running the point with flair. Matt Barnes will relieve pressure on the other end. In my eyes, it all points to Kobe still being Kobe, but just at a slightly reduced rate and a slightly reduced efficiency. There should be minimum 5 other players ahead of him on draft boards and then there are a whole bunch of 50/50 calls which will swing depending on the individual.
Danny Granger needs to learn how to stay on the court. This wouldn’t even be a discussion if Granger had managed to play 75+ games in the last two seasons. But the fact is, he has missed 35 games over that span of time. That’s a bunch of games to miss as many a fantasy owner will tell you (lesson: if you hear the words “When I took Granger at #4 ahead of Durant last season…”, switch off because the idiot doesn’t know what they are talking about). His reputation is soft as butter. That said, he has a new point guard who actually knows what to do (see you later Earl Watson), Troy Murphy has departed for greener pastures and the young turks of Hibbert, Hansborough and Rush have developed a little more. All of these things point to the Pacers being more competitive this year which I think means good things for his production. No more 4th quarter benchings. Granger becomes the man when it’s tight, which should be more often. His FG% rockets up because he isn’t playing with crud and doesn’t resort to bombing7.1 threes per game (!), basically giving up. I think Granger will be 26/6 this season, with 2.5+ threes, and a real threat for 2.5+ steals/blocks. If his turnovers stay where they are (2.5) and his percentages nudge up, it’s all gravy. Obviously by now you realise I am picking Granger over Kobe for my drafts but let me finish with this.
The answer to this question really sums up what sort of person you are when you play fantasy basketball. You have two choices with pretty similar outcomes statistically based. One has more upside but comes packaged with the greater risk (Granger) while the other has been producing the same high standard for a long time and even factoring in a slight decrease, is still great value at the right spot. I wouldn’t begrudge anyone taking Kobe over Granger but it probably does mean you are slightly conservative with your drafting and don’t like to have any fun (that’s a joke people, chill out). If you take Granger, you are basically a sucker for punishment. You know he misses a bucketload of games but you crave that challenge. Good luck to you my friend.
New Fantasy Pastures: Leandro Barbosa and the Toronto Raptors
I was trying to produce something super fancy just now to amaze people but the last hour of my life was lost in a simple coding mistake. It’ll have to wait. Instead, let’s look keep looking at a few individual players. While Pau Gasol didn’t far too well in our attempt at character assassination, we are going to become a bit more positive and check out Leandro Barbosa who in the summer has shifted from the fantasy friendly beaches of Phoenix to the chilly shores of Toronto.
He may not be as fast as he once was, but things are definitely going to improve for LB and the Raptors.
Barbosa has always been able to score the ball, especially as his whole NBA career has been with the Suns. At his peak, Barbosa was a FreeDarko favorite who transcended the game. In 2006-07 he averaged 20 points, 4 assists and 2.6 threes. This was his high point (and the Suns) and since then, there has been a lot left to be desired. So much so, that last season he was pretty invisible, playing in 44 games but only managing 18 minutes and 9 points per game. This had much to do with the build up of young talent at the Suns such as Dragic and Dudley as his injuries which wouldn’t seem to leave him alone. Should fantasy minds be thinking he is a super injury risk after missing 38 games last season and 12 the season before that? Well he is playing in the FIBA World Champs next month and just yesterday put in a pretty solid effort against the Australian team (29 minutes, 14 points /2 threes). The campaign for the national team should actually put owners at ease as it puts some playing time into his game and ensures he should be ready for the NBA come October. It worked for Dwyane Wade in 2008 and there is no reason why it can’t work for Leandro in 2010.
But will the move to Toronto actually be any good for his fantasy game? We hear a lot about the Raptors and their inability to do much at all. Apart from Chris Bosh and sometimes Andrea Bargnani, not much happens north of the border. Jose Calderon is hot then so very cold. Hedo couldn’t make it work. Lots of bit players split stats (Jack, DeRozen, Johnson) but never are able to make a solid contribution which is worth anything other than a waiver wire pick up. They did have the 5th most points in the league last season, but that is very deceptive as their pace factor was a mid range 13th. They rank last in defense which is a serious disgrace when teams like the Wizards and Nets are around. From this, we can pretty conclusively draw that there is no real ‘Toronto’ factor at work unless it is a detrimental one.
However, the optimist within me really likes Barbosa this season. He should be the starting two guard but can always be the 6th man like he was at the Suns. The Raptors do get the ball up and down the floor as witnesses with their scoring. Calderon and Jack aren’t exactly leading the way, so there should also be times where Barbosa becomes the general on the floor. He has shown in the past he can pass, but it’s questionable if he wants to play that role. I can see more than a few highlight reels appearing involving him and either Weems or DeRozen as those kids have some serious hops and with the Brazilian Blur flying down the wings, at least the Toronto crowd might get a little excited at times. LB is not going to set the world on fire but he is going to make an impact. I’d pencil him in for 14-15 points, 3.5 assists and a solid source of threes. He will also chip in with steals and has a pretty decent FT% but only gets to the line max 3 times per game. It’s not going to blow your mind but there is also the chance he thrives in Toronto and becomes a serious player. God knows the Raps are in need of some help and icons. And if nothing else, when you draft him in the appropriate round, you can share with your friends this link, one of the funniest things I think I have ever seen.
Others aren’t so keen on him. GMTR says “Expect Barbosa to average in the neighborhood of 25-27 minutes a game with about 15 points with 1.5 threes a game”. FantasyBasketballDaily, “He was traded to Toronto, but finds himself in a crowded guard rotation with Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Linas Kleiza and DeMar DeRozan”. I think he will play 30+ minutes and really settle into life alongside some pretty average players. He is quick and can do his own thing.
Draft range: 62 (earliest) – 90 (latest, only if you play in a league which thinks missing 10 games is akin to playing for the Clippers)
