Draft Day
This is a plea for help and also a self centered call for some comments and conversation on this blog. I think there are some people out there who actually read this and I have some questions for you.
I have three drafts in the next week. One is my favorite day of the year, a live draft with a bunch of mates (offline), the other is a fantasy basketball blogger draft (online) and finally a money league draft which will be my first.
My question is; what do other people to do prepare? I have a bunch of lists. I have positional rankings. Sleepers. Efficient shooters (thanks to GMTR). I have read the rules etc etc. But I always feel that other people do things better and make things easier for themselves.
So what do you to do prepare for your drafts coming up over the next 10 days? Hit up the comments and leave you best suggestions.
Injuries are for jerks
I want to preface this rant by saying it is purely subjective and I have not even tried to justify it by looking up an hours worth of stats. I’ll call it a gut check and we’ll go from there.
Injuries to your players in Fantasy basketball are bad. But they are not the end of the world, especially if those players have unique skill sets. And it is within this space that I believe the vast majority of fantasy guru’s overestimate the negative of a particular player if they have even a pretext of injury history, remembering I don’t give a shit about Roto leagues. This is purely H2H and it is also based on there being at least some bench spots.
What brought this stunning revelation to my attention was staring at a couple of names. Andrew Bogut and Troy Murphy. Across a wide range of opinions this off-season, I have seen their names dowsed in petrol, lit and left to burn. I scream silently at my computer, making silly faces along the way whenever I see this occurring. I can nearly understand it on some semi-rational understanding of fantasy basketball but then I snap back to my own little world and I scream (silently of course) some more. These two players, one being a member of the rarest of fantasy species, a true center and the other an elite outside big man threat, bring a cache of skills which are extremely unique.
Andrew Bogut might not have been the best center in fantasy basketball last year but he was a bloody good one who produced nightly for that Bucks team hell bent on proving a bunch of people wrong. He also missed the fantasy playoffs thanks to a god-awful injury which could only happen to Australia’s best ever NBA player and now he seems to be paying for that via his ADP. Yet what is the reality of the situation? He is gearing up for his first pre-season game this weekend. He says himself he will be playing in pain all season but that he will make it work. Now, in fantasy terms Bogut still played 69 games last season. That means he missed 13 which is all of 3.5 typically game weeks. He was a mid-tier center, drafted at about 70. Yet, if someone told me today that Bogut would play 65 games this season, I would still take his 15/10/2 over other Center options who average less but have a lesser injury risk (Examples of current higher ADP: Paul Millsap, Andrew Bynum, LaMarcus Aldridge). Why? Because if you are lose 3 game weeks by a total of 20 boards and 5 blocks, your team doesn’t deserve to competing. There are other ways to fill that void but for those other 18 game weeks, you are best placed to dominate the competition.
The same goes for Troy Murphy. He has played 3 straight seasons of low 70ish games. He starts this season with a lower back strain. But you know what else? He averages a bucket load of threes and 10+ boards per game. Any other takers in that category? Nope. He puts your small ball team so far over the top in most situations, those 8-10 games pale into insignificance. Obviously if his back is more serious, fair enough, and drop him down a couple of ranking spots. Yet too many people are willing to completely write players off because of missed games. In H2H, it takes a week of concentrated domination in 5 categories to earn a ‘W’. One player, with the exception of perhaps the top 3-4, make that difference. A good team can absorb the hit in games missed, but make it count three-fold when that player is on the floor and producing.
I’m not advocating drafting every player with an injury risk that you happen to love. I’m saying that you can deal with these players if you use and draft them strategically. The upside of Bogut and Murphy are their talent and ability to produce big, fairly unique numbers. You can guarantee that production if you lock in an early draft pick. You can lessen the risk by drafting a back up plan, by handcuffing bench players, by trading later in the season and a host of other options. All of this mitigates the original risk and allows you to easily draft a player who might have the potential for injury. Just think of very recent examples. Anyone who ‘took a chance’ on Gerald Wallace last season (paid off in spades). Anyone who jumped on board the Marcus Camby bandwagon. The dude everyone probably laughed at when they selected Nene. You can bet the exact same things will happen this year with regard to the above players mentioned and the likes of Blake Griffin and Yao Ming (who is already playing well past his designated minutes per game).
Anyone can get injured, but with a little bit of planning and dynamic thinking, you can walk the ground where others fear to tread and reap the rewards.
Zelda in the night
Links:
MFBarkley have a (fantasy) basketball podcast. There aren’t many of these around and I actually really enjoyed listening to this while surfing around. It’s always nice to have three guys in the same room to bounce ideas and zings off people. Hopefully this is a regular occurrence. They do mention John Hollinger a lot though, be warned. It also takes a bit of time to get to the fantasy. If I am allowed one comment, more fantasy, less other stuff but still, I’m not hating.
Some risky picks from Razzball. I don’t agree with nearly any of them (as in being super risky) but it’s a nice read from a different perspective. (How can Robin Lopez be a risky pick? The dude is all laughs. Even if he sits on your bench all year, you can just watch this on loop all day).
I love 1/1/1 articles. And this one is awesome.
Some fantasy basketball, H2H principles you can live by. I reckon most people will have seen this, but for those who haven’t, it’s some quality stuff.
Damn lies and statistics has a breakdown of LeBosh Wade. Maybe because at heart I’m a politics junky, but this for mine is the best quote regarding the off-seas0n: “Not since Stalin, Lenin and Trotsky have we seen such a trio wreak havoc on a nation.”
John Wall. Whats up!? Apparently his Average Draft Ranking according to LIJAFBB
Rotoprofessor breaks down the Small Forward position, perhaps the most over hyped position in fantasy basketball so take heed!
It’s a sign of the times that there are so many good links out there for fantasy ball this season. Gotta love the sheer amount of blogs on the scene.
The little things in life
What’s the best thing about fantasy basketball in the two weeks before the season starts? Sifting through mock drafts? Looking at what the experts reckon about your favorite player? Draft day? These all pale in comparison to the sheer excitement generated from the unknown. Because, as the following (true) story will demonstrate, everyone is correct at this stage of the season.
My work days can be pretty dreary. Sitting at a computer all day. Staring at the whitewash walls. Reading bureaucratic rubbish. It’s all there. Yet often they are sparked by the sneakiest of emails. Slyly written comments designed to infuriate even the most placid of people. Thankfully, yesterday was one turned from a dreary day into a hilarious day when this quote hit my inbox:
“Maybe I’ll draft the entire Wizards starting 5 and watch you implode when they win 60 games.”
Now, to most people… OK, to nearly every single fantasy basketball player alive, this wouldn’t be worth two seconds of your time. But this spawned nearly a day and half of discussion centered around the Wizards, Gilbert Arenas and fantasy basketball in general.
To set the scene. My house-mate is a one-eyed Wizards fan who believes Gilbert is the greatest athlete to ever grace the streets of downtown D.C. Right now, I am staring at a giant Arenas poster which adorns his door. As soon as you walk in the front door, bang, Gilbert is staring straight at you with some great big, freaky looking dark eyes. Anyway, this is what occurred over the course of the afternoon:
“Could “international blogger extraordinaire” give us his opinion on one Andray Blatche? 8pts, 2 3ptm, 4 rebs, 3 dimes, 1 blk, 1 steal at the half against a full strength Hawks team. Yummy – he definitely gets drafted between pick 30-40. Zards’ by 14 at the half (sans Arenas)”
Countered by:
“Blatche prediction: 15 points, 7 boards, 2+ steals/blocks, 0.7 threes.
Comment: Susceptible to poor behaviour and uncertainly surrounding injury. Just locked up contract extension. Possible lack of motivation. Nothing special here. Move along now.
Draft: Late 5th round.”
Just to make things more interesting, an unfortunate soul who gets included in these email conversations asked about Hibatchi and his predictions for the coming season. To wit;
“Stats: 20ppg, 2 3s, 3 rebs, 4 ast, 1.3stl
Penny has finally dropped with Arenas – he’s dropped the goofy gimick and is taking his game seriously. Will slot over to the SG spot (his true position) and will benefit from having a pass first PG leading the break and enjoying open 3 shots. Is fit and healthy, and while he will always be limited by his knee injuries, will outperform Kevin Martin who is rubbish. How many SGs can average 5+ assists? AND 2 3ptm a game?
Drafted? 3rd-4th round
The end.”
Now, I have to admit this had my chuckling after the opening sentence. My love for KevMartin was getting walked all over for no good reason. I could not take this lying down!
“17 points, rubbish FG% (as usual), poor FT% for a SG (75%), 2.5 boards, 3.8 assists (not 5+), 1.7 threes, 1.5 steals, 3+ TURNOVERS.
The fake moody Gilbert Arenas blows up by weel 5 after he isn’t getting as much as the ball as he wants. The offense stagnates. Worst 3FG% in career as he starts chucking up the ball whenever he touches it. Misses 15+ games to due moodiness and nagging injuries.
“How many SGs can ave 5+ assists and 2+ 3ptm?” Maybe O.J Mayo. Not Gilbert Arenas.
Drafted: Late 6th round. After Ray Allen, Kevin Martin and OJ MAYO. Game over.”
Anyway, this is a small picture of my world at work (for a very small percentage of the time it must be added). Perhaps this is a tad self-indulgent for a fantasy page (apparently the first rule of fantasy sports is no-one cares about your team/league) but I couldn’t really give a damn. The truth is that both Blatche and Arenas probably lie somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. Both have an opportunity to perform in environments which they haven’t seen in before (Arenas as the full time off guard and Blatche as a starter) and if everything goes right, the Wizards might even crack a solid playoff birth. Who knows? What I do know is that talking smack about fantasy basketball in the days just before the season starts is the best way to spend a day, bar none.
Fantasy Round Table #1
Some of you might have seen the Fantasy Round Table doing the rounds last season at various blogs. Lester’s Legends sought out participants for this year and I’m glad to come along for the ride.
The first question is how will LeBron’s taking his talents to South Beach affect his fantasy production?
My take is just below but more importantly, this is the link for all the other responses (and there are a whole bunch of people involved this season)
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James is a natural passer and he has fun doing it. Whether it’s those behind the back flicks or the no-look, cross court bullet, it’s like a production for him. It is here that he is the polar opposite of Dwyane Wade, who will be the beneficiary of someone finally being able to find him. Naturally then, a bump in his assists is to be expected, especially when we consider that Chris Bosh is going to be knocking down open 15 footers with regularity. I think this will result in a small change with regard to his pure statistical production. I don’t know if it’ll be high enough to threaten 10 per game, but his career average is 7.0 and I would expect something similar or slightly higher than last season’s 8.6.
LeBron also obviously knows how to score. Averaging just a tick under 30 points last year, he can do it almost any way except efficiently from beyond the arc or at the free throw line. The Heat are going to need to score points to win games (duh) but he has enough talent around him to ensure that it doesn’t have to be 30 a night. Instead of doing everything himself like at Cleveland, the load will be well and truly shared. I wouldn’t be surprised in Bosh ends up averaging nearly as many points as Wade or James when all is said and done (and by nearly, I mean within 4 points). This is probably the one area which could see a substantial (3-4 points) drop off.
Apart from that, I think most things will same. He hasn’t forgotten how to steal, block or rebound the ball. Just like in Cleveland, there is no true Center. However unlike in Cleveland, I expect the Heat are going to be able to win a bunch of games without James needing to be on the court for 40+ minutes night in, night out.
13 Predictions
I see lots of lists everywhere I look on basketball blogs at the moment. The internet + fantasy + basketball = lists. Why aren’t I getting in on that action I asked myself? Probably because I don’t do anything the easy way was the response. BUt times, they are a changing. So here is a proper list, with an arbitrary number of points on a specific subject.
13) Kevin Martin will play more games than Gilbert Arenas and also have more fantasy value. Boom. Take that email argument from two days ago. This came out of a discussion with my Gilbert Arenas loving house-mate who thinks that Arenas is about to turn into the next incarnation of Pistol Pete Maravich. Apparently when John Wall is the savior, miraculous things happen to players who have lost their way. I call absolute balony on the grandest of scales. I do think Arenas will provide fantasy value but a top 5 SG? Nope. Lead the league in 3PTM? Nope. He will continue to shoot a terrible clip for FT% and manage a way above average TO rate for a SG. Kevin Martin on the other hand is about to light it up, Rockets style. He is playing for a smart coach and embedded in the highest basketball IQ team in the league. He has zero pressure on his shoulders with Yao and Brooks running the show. I can easily see 20+ points per night, with multiple threes, a wicked FT% and best of all, a career high FG%. He will miss time but 70+ games is to be expected.
12) DeMarcus ‘Boogie’ Cousins will win fantasy rookie of the year. This is mainly because of what he won’t do, as opposed to what he will do. John Wall will also put up big numbers, but like every rookie point guard to ever have played, his FG% will be somewhere in the dirt and his turnover numbers will be through the roof. Cousins has the advantage of being a big man who comes in as the most NBA ready rookie of those selected in the lottery. For fantasy, this means relatively low turnovers, higher FG% while still doing things like score, board and block. There are no negatives here people unless he has a brain explosion. The more I see of Cousins, the more I get this feeling that Sac-Town are going to fall in love with him and Evans running the place ragged. While he might initially battle for minutes, by Week 6 he will be playing 30+ night in, night out. You can’t keep a good thing down.
11) Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James will all average within 4 points of each other. Every time the Heat get mentioned, all I see are camera flashes and smirks on faces accompanied by a loud groan from the NBA masses. It has already reached that point. However this is not just a story about one player. Or two. It’s going to be about all three. People will look back and Chris Bosh could well be the reason why this all worked out fine, or why it all crashed in flames. He has to want it at least a thousand times more than his play in Toronto suggests. He will get his points in all kinds of manners which we can’t even understand yet. Left unguarded under the basket, dropping 18 foot jump shots with no-one chasing him down, alley-oops from distance. This season will have it all for Chris Bosh and that means points, points and more points. I’ll put it officially at 22.9 per game, which would be more than enough to stay within the margin of Wade and James. It also makes him a very attractive fantasy option, one of a handful of 20/10 guys out there. He still probably can’t block, but those points will be some of the most efficient in the league.
Baby Davis didn't make the cut for 2010-11 predictions
10) Jameer Nelson will storm back into some form and be one of those pesky point guards that seems to have a blinding week for your opponent but against no-one else. Two seasons ago, despite playing only 42 games, Nelson was the bee’s knees as a second tier point guard. He has never been one for a cache of assists but he has the ability to turn it on when required. In that 2008-09 season, he averaged 2 3ptm, 1+ steal and amazing efficiency. His drop off has been pretty substantial since then, as he struggled with injury and the arrival of Vince Carter. But Nelson is the glue guy for Orlando this season. Carter hasn’t proved anything and may get moved before the deadline. Rashard Lewis is stuck in major funk from which I don’t think there is an escape. The thing is, this Magic team is only good enough when it really counts when Jameer is in top gear. Chris Duhon and Jason Williams are capable but small spells will be the order of the day. If the rumors about Dwight Howard’s offensive game (I think I’ve heard this one before though) are true, it’s only going to contribute. I’m not advocating you take Nelson anywhere in particular for your squads just that he’ll bounce back and cause some pain for opponents at some point during this season. He is too good not too.
9) The proliferation of the 1-1-1 guy. Last season we only saw two players actually record more than 1 three, 1 steal and 1 block every game over the course of the season and they are called Durant and James. Many others were close, but close sorta don’t cut it in my books. This season, there will be a rash of 1-1-1 players crowing their talents from the treetops. A certainty you can add to the list is Dwyane Wade. But let us focus on some more low key guys. Whatever you think about Channing Frye, as he seems to be a pretty polarising player in fantasy circles, he should average more than 27 minutes a game and in turn, nudge up his steals (0.8) and blocks (0.9) from last season to walk on hallowed turf. Andrea Bargnani should easily make this list but can’t steal a ball worth a damn. Last season he only managed 0.3 per game. Lazy? Perhaps but if he is going to be ‘da man’ in Toronto, this will have to change. There are a pair of Knicks (Gallo and Azubuike) who will be there about. If you are a Rudy Gay believer (and I’m not) then his 0.8 3ptm and 0.8 blocks totals are disappointing for a player of his ability but I don’t see him busting many balls on the court given his massive pay day. The most promising candidates though are those who were short, but only managed to play limited minutes. Nic Batum and Michael Beasley fit the bill here. And a flier? Troy Murphy only averages 0.4 blocks per game but playing alongside Brook Lopez and coming across with help defense could, in some far off fairy land, bump this total up.
8) Serge Ibaka will start for the Thunder and become the Chris Anderson for the next decade. The playoff series against the Lakers was Ibaka’s coming out party. Despite losing that series, Air Congo as he is affectionately known to OKC supporters was a monster. Against the best big combination in the league and the eventual NBA champions, Ibaka held his own defensively for long periods of time (25 minutes per game) over the 6 games. He isn’t exactly an offensive mega star in waiting but with Durant and Westbrook as teammates it’s not exactly an issue. But he can block. And block and block. So, instead of picking Chris Anderson with that 11th round pick, aim for Ibaka in the 10th instead just to make sure you nab him.
7) Old guys will continue to make fools of the haters out there. I’m talking mostly about three guys. Marcus Camby, Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. For the past two years I have been railing against anyone who brings their names up, deriding them for believing in players who cannot keep doing what they do. Yet they keep on keeping on regardless of what anybody says. Perhaps this is my personal mea culpa, an apology to what I believe have been overrated old fantasy stars but in reality they are just plain fantasy stars like everyone else. Steve Nash led the league in assists last year. Marcus Camby finished the season with a top 25 overall fantasy rank regardless of what system you use. Jason Kidd has missed 3 games in the past 2 seasons while throwing down three pointers with alarming regularity (+2 per game) and amazing accuracy (+40%), not to mention the 9+ assists and 5+ boards. Each of these guys have slid down draft boards over the past month because of concerns about age but what makes this year so much different? Nothing.
Steve Nash as he was originally intended
6) Twitter will make you more competitive in your league. If you are reading this blog, you probably know what twitter is. That said, unless you are a junkie, this isn’t going to apply to you. You know those people, scanning their phones every 15 seconds not because they got a text message from an actual friend but because they racked up another 3 @ replies. Those people. Well, they have an advantage over you and your reliance on Rotoworld to update you on the latest player movements, injuries and form. You are officially 1-2 hours behind the twitterati who if this were last season, have already picked up Darren Collison as Chris Paul is still sitting on courtside wondering what just happened. Twitter explodes at key moments because someone is always watching the news as it’s happening and this news spreads like wide fire, first on Twitter then to other parts of the internet and finally to the mainstream. If you think catching the scores on SportsCenter when you get home is going to cut it in 2010-11 for your fantasy news, you have another thing coming my friend.
5) Elton Brand will be the player who most outperforms his Average Draft Position. I know this is a big call considering it’s normally some rookie or super back up who was not even drafted in the vast majority of leagues, but I think Brand is just going to kill it this season. This comes from someone who dislikes watching 76er games so much, if it happens to be one of the two televised games that week in Australia, it doesn’t get tivo’d. Doug Collins is on the record as a big Brand supporter. He is fully recovered from his injury. All signs point to a massive boast. One the other side, his name is often mentioned as a 4th or 5th option at PF and nowhere I read is even the least bit excited in him. Perhaps wisely, but I don’t understand how a player with as much talent as he obviously does can continue to suck for so long. 34+ minutes, 19/9 with 2+ blocks.
4) As opposed to the above, Paul Pierce will be the most disappointing player related to his ADP. On the latest yahoo big board he is late 4th round. Pierce was a great player. He led his team when it was going through the worst era of the franchise. He led the league in scoring. He adapted his game when necessary over the past three seasons. But he looks OLD. With KG fit and better than ever (compared to the last two seasons anyway), Rondo taking on more and more responsibility and the combination of Ray Allen and Nate Rob in the backcourt and Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal in the front spells the least reliance on Pierce since he was a rookie. He will still get minutes, still do that annoying head fake, draw the contact crap that has been his bread and butter for years but the excitement and the bang for your buck is way over. 14-15 points with filler (2-3 assists, 3-4 boards, 1.2 3ptm) is fine for the Celtics this season but the problem is, that’s not 4th round material.
A picture tells 1000 words
3) Kid Delicious (aka Kevin Durant) will be the most dominant fantasy player since Garnett’s 2003-04 season. The gap between KD and whoever ends up as the 2nd option is going to be spectacular (barring injury). Sure, he is a consensus number one pick everywhere you look, but his dominance is going to be unbelievable. Box scores are literally going to explode with goo half way through the 3rd quarter. I’m big on going over the top, so let’s not stop at the 2000 word count. Toss out the pencil, grab your permanent marker and write this down: 33 points, 9.5 boards, 50/40/90 with 1.8 threes, 3+ steals/blocks. Eat it Chris Paul. (post script: as I was finishing this post up, this was on twitter about KD and partying. EXACTLY why he is number 1)
2) Tyreke Evans will play beautiful, exquisite basketball for the Kings but this will not translate into first round talent. I just saw this tweet from Steve Alexander (head of Rotoworld NBA) saying that he is going late first round/early second round in all of his drafts. Which makes me sick. There is no doubt he is an ungodly talent on the basketball court but one quarter of pre-season hoops against the Clippers does not mean he can shoot threes or make free-throws all season long. Sorry, just the truth.
1) Luol Deng will continue his domination of Rashard Lewis. This one is for my boy Jason over at fbasketballblog who is forever doubting the talents of Britain’s greatest export. If you are still reading, I’m sorry to end on such a middle of the road kind of thing but this is going to become my singular achievement for the season after the inevitable collapse of my fantasy teams by about week 15. Deng has been biding his time but now it has arrived. He has always flirted with being a major piece of the puzzle and now that Derrick Rose has matured a little, Joakim Noah is a beast in the middle and Kyle Korver is running around jacking threes, Deng is left to hit his stride and carry his load on offense. While Rashard Lewis might be making $19.5 MILLION US DOLLARS this season (this point needs to be emphasised over and over again with every bricked three point attempt), he cannot compete!
Trade-based Drafting: The next big thing?
You don’t read much about fantasy trades at this stage of the basketball season. Which is a good thing I think, considering the season hasn’t started yet. Yet it is a large part of the actual season if you play in a switched on league. One trade can make or break your entire season. With this in mind, let’s break down how you can factor in trades to your draft day.
Take it as a given that people will draft to well established lists. You can bet that if ESPN rank a top 10, those top 10 is make up the vast majority of top ten picks in ESPN fantasy basketball leagues, the same goes for Yahoo. I think you can also bank the fact that most people who have any idea what they are doing, will draft to a strategy. Be that going big, small, medium, dumping categories, cuff linking players etc. I would advise you to follow the same path. But go a step further.
I was reading somewhere early tonight (and sorry for forgetting where, but if it was you and you see this, comment below and I’ll link) about Roto strategy and if you somehow manage to grab Kevin Durant with the #1 pick, then get Dwight Howard, presumably with the #24 pick, you are a lock for a top three finish. Thus, another team is basically forced to pick Dwight Howard before that time (which would likely occur). And this got me thinking (uh huh, it happens regularly), if you had pick #23 and were forced to pick him despite not wanting to, how could you manage to off load him at a later date, and sneakily draft to that strategy instead? It’s a tricky question and it takes drafting to another level all together.
It should be pretty easy to work out what each manager is trying to do by the 4th or 5th round. This still leaves up to 8 picks from which to ‘poach’ players from their strategy. Say for example, Team Wigga has just drafted Bargnani and Danilo Gallinari. Tall dudes who shoot the three and don’t rebound (poor strategy on their behalf but whatever). By rounds seven, Team Wigga is wigging out because stocks are thin. By chance, you sit right in front of them on the draft board. You yourself, Team Nifty, are looking for more blocks/FG% but got shafted last round when Greg Oden* got pinched from under your nose (yeah what? let’s take this outside). Thus, with this pending pick, you can very easily still draft Andris Biedrins who is staring at you in the face saying ‘Pick Me!’. Or. Perhaps more controversially, you can say to hell with Biedrins because he is an overpaid hack who couldn’t walk up the court last season, let alone hit a free throw. Instead, you take Rashard Lewis. Not because you think he is about to turn around his shitty career, but because he was Team Wigga’s next pick, you are 100% certain of it.
What are you left with? A piece of jigsaw which doesn’t exactly fit your team because you dumped 3PTM after your first 4 picks were Amar’e, Josh Smith, David West and Andrew Bogut (nice team btw). However, you hold an integral piece of another person’s team who would slot in so nicely on their roster, they are willing to part with other, better players who will produce more than Andris Biedrins ever will.
The positives here are you hold a bargaining chip and depending on who it is and how much the other team (or number of teams) require that chip, determines how much it’s worth. The negatives are the owner probably knows exactly what you were doing and will never part with your prized possession, in this case Greg Oden, just to spite you and your dastardly tricks.
I don’t think there is any easy advice in here which suits every situation. This is fantasy game theory and the variables are pretty significant. The players involved, the attitude of the respective owners, the negotiations, the performance of alternative players etc. However, I think at the right time and used the right way, like any other piece of strategy, it has it’s place. There is always a sucker who loves a particular player but is too stingy to use a particular pick on him only to regret that decision when someone else takes him two rounds later. This fantasy owner is the one to target and extract your pound of flesh. The one caveat I have here is that the deeper your league, the better this works with late round picks. Chances are they are going to be pretty useless for your team, so instead, pick players who have a proven track record at particular, specific categories and then stash them (presuming you have a large bench) as a trade chip for the future when the going gets real. Quid pro quo, the opposite is true for shallow leagues, in the fact this strategy will be a difficult one because of the proliferation of options regarding each player.
* thank you for indulging my fantasy about Greg Oden being a 7th round steal
Draft Day Essentials
I bet you have a shiteload of draft stuff slowly assembling on your computer somewhere. Probably positional lists, definitely a top player list and, if your nerdy enough, some select tables from basketball monster informing you about that elite 12th round pick that everyone else has overlooked.
But if that’s all you have, your in trouble. There are many essentials on draft day which you cannot find on the Yahoo Fantasy site. They are the intangibles which get your over the line in a tight spot or help you decide on whether Rudy Fernandez deserves that 13th pick.
Favorite Jersey: The most obvious one, regardless of an online draft or a real, in the flesh experience, is your treasured jersey. Professionals might scoff at this because they don’t actually watch basketball but they are shmucks and deserve your scorn (in the upcoming section). For the last three years I have been hunting a Shawn Kemp SuperSonics yellow/green away jersey from the early 1990′s. When I eventually get my hands on it, my league is over. From the moment you put it on, you feel comfortable. Warm and fuzzy even. You might only wear it once a year, but hot damn, you’ll do it justice today. That is unless, you adorn one of the bazillion Kobe Bryant tops which ensure this world eternal damnation. This year, I’m going with my Danilo Gallinaro t-shirt to change things up. I look forward to crushing Mr Reversible Vince Carter just like last season.
Lucky Charm: I figured out the reason why I have come 2nd over the past two seasons. I had no lucky charm. That all changed the day I walked into probably the worst arena in the NBA, the Izod Center, Middle of Nowhere, New Jersey. While watching the Nets get beat up by Kevin Durant and the Thunder wasn’t the worst NBA game I ever saw, it was pretty awful. Lucky for me, at half time, I bought the biggest cup of drink in the world. This cup is plastic, white and has a red strip about 3/4 of the way up which reads, “Nets”. Real imaginative. I carried that cup from New Jersey, back to New York and all the way back to Australia. If I don’t make the playoffs, that cup is history. The point of this is that you need a lucky charm if you really wanna make a push for the epic win. If your jersey is your lucky charm, you may as well stop reading this because, to quote the product on a drunken night spent in a dorm room, “isssss ovaaaaaaa!”
Smack Talk: Draft day wouldn’t be a draft day without smack talk. The more vicious, the better. My efficiency at work has been slipping through the floor in the past couple of weeks as the emails begin to ramp up after a quiet off-season. I get constant reminders (thanks Cal) about Yi and his (in)ability to hit threes. The best put downs work on past mistakes. You know your friend who drafted Andre Miller in the 6th round last year because he didn’t realise he had been traded to Portland? That’s the kind of thing you have to bring up again and again on draft day, just to get in his head. A classic put down works wonders. It instantly transforms the room into giddy laughter, makes your opponent feel small and weedy (always a plus) and gives you an immediate sense of satisfaction. Whoever you pick next is sure to dominate the rest of the season regardless of their murky drug history (Michael Beasley, come on down). This is draft day at it’s best.
The Back Hand Compliment: Some people would class this as a continuation of smack talk, but they would be wrong. More subtle, it’s like a critique of the latest stage show you saw. When it comes to the 2nd round and someone pounces on Brandon Roy, mention he is an awesome player… for the 60 or so games he can manage every year. Smirk (note: this does not work if you have just chosen Gerald Wallace).
Amusing Picture Link: This one obviously works better for online drafts (and if you know how to link to pictures when sitting around a table, things are a little unfair). The best thing about this is that depending on whether you think certain players are going to be good or bad this season, you can tailor the picture. Probably the best picture link this season will be some witty reference to the Amar’e picture adorning the most recent ESPN Mag. I know you can’t resist a snide comment.
If you have a live, in the flesh draft (which everyone should experience with their friends at least once in their life), make sure you include a pick time limit. This is ESSENTIAL. There is nothing worse than waiting for some jack-ass to pick Jason Kidd after mulling it over for 15 minutes. As if you’d pick him in the first place…. Beer helps in this situation.
Other people’s good work
Jeez people produce some solid fantasy analysis in October. This period is a bit like the week before NYEs. Everyone is excited for a mad party, the planning goes to the next level and it’s just a generally good period. Hopefully the start of the NBA season produces more than my standard NYEs party (the shame of being in bed before the fireworks go off).
Prime examples:
GMTR produce 25 Centers and things get ugly towards the end. As is standard everywhere I read, Andrew Bogut and Greg Oden are undersold because of ‘injury concerns’ (OK, maybe there is a grain of truth to this but I want to BELIEVE!) while Marc Gasol seems to be made of gold.
LIJAFBB is high on Nic Batum and I am in grand agreement. The dude can flat out ball. I’ve never been a LaMarcus fan but perhaps ’tis the season?
FbasketballBlog takes on the Denver Nuggets and earns a green mark of respect from me. Team previews are horrible to read when done wrong, but this site produces in spades… short, sharp, simple. Fantasy analysis the way it should be (he also links to AWESOME pictures on his twitter account)
FantasyBasketballDaily has all your injury updates. For the record, his dislike of Yao Ming is not shared here but Nic Batum also gets a mention here. He will soon be wide awake to the fantasy world.
Razzball hits up pairings for the first round. I particularly like his take on Danny Granger about going big, it’s like a match made in heaven. But unlike them, I would be very willing to take Amar’e. They say “nerve-wracking winter”, I say “Unlimited potential”. These guys always have solid conversations rolling on the bottom of their threads too, so hit up the comments!
For some non-fantasy related goodies, I really can’t go past Doc Funk. His latest had me in tears when it came to Vince Carter and LeBron James. Good stuff.
And finally, I’m sure you’ll know Trey Kerby but thank god he has moved on from BDL to a more natural home. Hopefully we get more of this all season long.
Pre-season gibberish
What do pre-season games tell us? I’d say roughly about a summer league game multiplied by the rookie/sophomore challenge at the All Star Weekend which produces such glorious games like the Nets and 76ers where the Nets bench players combined to shoot 19 of 43 (34%) from the field. Thank you Jason Kapono for absolutely nothing.
However there are always gems amongst the rough is you are willing to search. I’ll highlight some of my favorites from the first big day of pre-season games and reasons to get excited!
Brook Lopez: Keeping to the Nets theme I have aptly established, BroLo just dominated. Sure, it was against Spencer Hawes and Craig Brackins but 24 points, 7 rebounds with 8-10ft’s in only 22 minutes tells me two things. 1) he knows how to beat up bad opponents which is always handy to rely on, and 2) he has the fire in his belly after Kiki V. was dumped for Avery Johnson. I had the displeasure of seeing Lopez not once, not twice, but THREE freakin’ times in the flesh last season and not once did he play well. His team wouldn’t give him the ball despite him being in the post for a full 10 seconds demanding it, instead chucking it to Yi Jianliang for another mis guided 26 foot three pointer. His coach would sub him out regardless of how the team was doing. And worst, he was in constant foul trouble… even against OKC and the Cavs, who were two of the smaller front courts last season. This is a good sign going forward and I have him locked in as the fourth best center option this year, behind Dwight, Pau and Amar’e (why do Centers get mad first names?). Is there anything better than a super efficient big man? Well, perhaps but it’s pretty gravy.
Terrence Williams: I promise I’ll stop picking Net’s players after this. Also, Wikipedia says him name is ‘T-Will’ but I think it’s boring and unimaginative. His middle name is Deshon and he own’s over 300 pairs of shoes, surely the basketball world can do better? (Shoe-shon? Noshed? Terrence the Menance? suggestions people). Anyway, Williams really impressed with 20 points and 8 assists despite not starting. Coach will see through the thin vaneer that is Anthony Morrow and you can expect more of this play in the future. Williams literally killed it coming down the stretch last year, partially because everyone else had given up on the Nets, but also because he has skillz. I mentioned him in the triple double post a few weeks back and it seems nothing has changed in that time (surprising?). If you like to draft fliers, nab him early because I’m sure you’ll have some competition.
Tyrus Thomas: I was physically ill when I read the Cavs starting 5 for their practice match against the Bobcats (Sessions, Parker, Graham, Jamison, Hollins) but then I fully recovered when I saw Thomas light it up in the way only he can. 3-10 from the field and 5-12 from the line aren’t exactly impressive numbers, but 9 boards, 3 assists, 3 steals and a block are tasty morsels for those of us that crave more than just efficiency. Boris Diaw is not exactly flavor of the month and I can just see Larry Brown leaning on Gerald Wallace and Thomas more and more as the season goes on. He might not start, but 30+ minutes off the bench means his he is more relevant than ever in terms of fantasy production.
(sidenote: this game was atrocious. The teams shot a combined 33.9% from the field on over 150 shots and could only muster up 31 assists for the entire game)
Greg Monroe: What’s the biggest fantasy story of this game? LeBron and his new team of side kicks? Dwyane Wade getting injured within 4 minutes? T-Mac’s epic debut of -16 in 8 minutes without taking a shot? Maybe if the year was 2003, but it’s not. Greg Monroe is the the bee’s knees. A big man who can pass and is as unselfish as they come. Did I mention he can shoot free throws? Ben Wallace is fine to have on the floor for long periods of time when you don’t actually want to win basketball games, but eventually the Pistons will change their attitude (I’m predicting about Christmas) and will attempt to gather some W’s. There are a lot of offensively minded players on this pathetic excuse for an NBA franchise (Hamilton, Stucky, Gordon, Villaneuva etc) but as an incessant optimist, I am hoping that Detroit fans demand Monroe plays more and more minutes as the season progressives because his talent is just too great to leave sitting on the pine. When him and swedish heart throb Jonas Jerebko manage to play nice alongside each other, it’s going to be a real treat.
Kyle Korver: It’s pretty hard to take anything out of a game involving the Bucks when they have Bogut, Maggette, Salmons AND Michael Redd sitting on the bench, but gosh darnit, Ashton Kutcher just looks so good playing basketball for the Chicago Bulls. The worst thing that ever happened to the 2009-10 Bulls was when Ben Gordon wasn’t paid enough money to stay and help Derrick Rose. Korver has learnt the hard way under Jerry Sloan, working out how to play to his point guards strengths, and now should finally shine with the promise of a lot of extra minutes. If you want a solid player who can hit three’s and chip in elsewhere and who might turn into something special, then Korver is your man (also featuring in this game, 20+ minutes from Brian Scalabrine).
Yao Ming: Yes he only played 12 minutes but that’s 12 more minutes than the ENTIRE last season. No field goals, no blocks and 2 turnovers. Not exactly the stuff of dreams but he was against the best Center in the league and hasn’t played proper basketball in 12+ months. I’ll take that. Ming is not going to be fantasy gold like he once was as he will be limited to restricted minutes…. but….. if the Rockets start winning games and he has anything to do with it, you can bet your ass there will be calls for more and by about January, those calls will be irresistible.
The Wizards: I’d love to get on board the bandwagon nice and early, but this is all I’m going to say. This is a train wreck waiting to happen, fantasy wise. Rookies, inexperience, crazies and Yi Jianliang. People, open your eyes! Yes John Wall will be value, but don’t forget every single rookie hits the wall eventually (I am shamelessly giggling uncontrollably right now). No-one else really excites me and if another person says JaVale McGee I will personally hunt them down. Who couldn’t get 6 blocks playing against Dominique Jones and DeShawn Stevenson? The dude once served me a burger in downtown Georgetown (or so says my travelling companion when drunk), I will never take him seriously.
Robin Lopez and Jason Richardson: All the rumors are true. This pair are going to be epic this season. Leave you Channing Frye’s at the door please.
And finally,
Tyreke Evans: Let it be known I have never enjoyed Tyreke Evans. As I don’t watch a lot of Kings games (grand total in the last two years: 0.5), I got annoyed with him quickly when I should of taken him off the free agent list before anyone else. Petty? Yes. Rational? Not exactly. But I’ll admit it. If the dude can hit his free throws this season (not too worried about threes), I might just fall in love. Points, assists, ball control… what else do you need?
