Apologies Mr Gasol
I owe an apology to Pau Gasol. Back in August I wrote this, saying Gasol was going to drop off this season as compared to last. I mostly wrote it because I REALLY wanted to use the picture from Rolling Stone.
Even worse, because I secretly wanted a piece of the Gasol family, I drafted Marc with the 33rd pick. I say worse, because despite his good form, I traded him for Brook Lopez who continues to abuse me with his dopey comic ways while not performing on the basketball court.
Anyway, the point of this is that I just traded for Pau Gasol. I thought the day would never come. You could call me a classic Laker hater. I can’t stand Kobe Bryant (that jaw thing pushed me over the edge) and the current collection of douchebags assembled in LA astounds me. To get Gasol, I gave up my rock so far this season, Tony Parker together with Danny Granger and Dorell Wright (I also got DJ Augustin, but more on that later). This was done on a whim, mostly expecting the trade to be rejected. But I couldn’t resist trying to nab Gasol to compliment my efficient big man team – KG, Camby, Nene, the previously mentioned Brook Lopez. And now Gasol. With Durant as the centerpiece, I’d say the team is borderline complete.
Getting back to Gasol. My main points against Gasol prior to the season starting were; He wasn’t interesting, he is soft, he is a dick, and he cannot play as well as 2009-10. 3 out of 4 ain’t bad.
But he certainly can play as well as last season, perhaps even better. This season, Gasol has increased his assists and blocks while lowering his turnovers. He is shooting slightly less FG% (down 2% to 51%) while his boards have slipped by 0.4 and his points have increased by 0.2. He has hit 43 of his 48 free throws in January. Did I mentioned that he hasn’t missed a game yet?
PAU GASOL! Why did I ever doubt you? Please do not seek your revenge by transforming into Shawn Bradley.
On a side note. Looking at my original roster for the season, only four players remain. Durant, Nene, KG and Gallinari. Strange. What’s not strange is that my team has ended up just like all my other teams. Efficient big men, dumping assists. I promise myself next year I’ll try something different.
The worst game of the season
According to the peeps I follow on Twitter, the Washington/Sac-town game was atrocious. Ugly fouls, an inability to keep time, a distinct lack of defence. However, the ever optimistic account of the NBA used more fantasy friendly terms, describing the epic battle of sub .500 teams as a ‘wild win’.
What exactly does ‘wild’ mean? Here are a few thoughts. DeMarcus opened up by going 0-6 from the floor. ‘Sisco Garcia had a season-high 26 points. Nick Young (THE NICK YOUNG!) dropped 43 including 7 from down town. January 2011 will forever be known as the time when the Wizards used all 12 players including Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin. It doesn’t get much better for fantasy. Except… it does.
There is a myth out there that scoring and a million possessions per game maketh a fantasy player. Two theories are used frequently to uphold this supposed fact. They are the ‘Golden State Warriors theory of relatively little defence’ and the D’Antoni effect. Many a fantasy nerd will proscribe avidly to these two methods of thinking. One, that a random GSW player will be awesome that season because they will play 40 minutes and score a shit load of points. The other, any team coached by Mike D’Antoni is not going to worry about a half court offense, leading to higher possessions and more chances to accumulate precious box score statistics.
My thoughts are not in compatible with these two situations. For example, like every other dummy this season, I can see Dorell Wright is God’s gift to the waiver wire. Proveth theorum numero uno – with the small caveat of Reggie Williams who I remember at draft time was meant to be that player. Also, you cannot deny the D’Antoni effect on players such as Ray Felton, Landry Fields and Wilson Chandler. Felton and Chandler struggled before being turned into up and down machines, running the floor all day. However, again, there is the inevitable failures such as Anthony Randolph and to some extent this season, Danilo Gallinari who is struggling to click as the tempo has been raised from even last season.
BUT. The real issue is not with these two facets of fantasy NBA – it’s that people see this and presume because their possessions per game as so ridiculously high, this must be true for all teams and when teams start to play up tempo, it automatically produces fantasy results. Bringing us back to the Sacramento/Washington game and check out the rest of the box score after we move past Nick Young and Fransisco Garcia.
The previously mentioned DeMarcus Cousins had 8 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals and a block. Not bad until we see he shot 4-19 from the field and missed 4 free throws (2-6). This is the other side of fast paced, up and down basketball. Shots won’t drop. Turnovers appear (3 for DMC). John Wall might have dropped 22 points and 9 assists but he killed his fantasy value with 6 turnovers and 6 from 19 from the field. JaVale McGee, averaging over 2 blocks per game for the season was only able to swat one shot, whereas you might except 4-5 with the extra possessions and shitty front court from Sac-town. Apart from rebounds, steals and points, this type of basketball has absolutely no guarantees for fantasy purposes. Fringe players get hot, ride a streak then go cold again. FG% suffers, normally reliable players turn the ball over. Did I mention I get angry when the hot players are accidentally on my opponents roster? There is that too.
Anyway, I suppose what I’m trying to say is that points and rebounds and steals do not make a fantasy team (unless you play in the Carmelo Anthony fantasy league – 4 cats, plus FT%). A game full of defence might not bring the stars out to play, but if we look at the Minnesota/San Antonio game, we see a different picture. You might be screaming that of course there are better fantasy players in this game (Parker, Manu, Duncan, Love, Mili… OK, just joking). But that doesn’t obscure the fact that it was a 107-97 slop fest in which the teams shot a combined 42% from the field. However, the game produced more threes, just as many steals and only 2 less blocks – on 34 less possessions!
I’m not advocating abandoning fast paced basketball for fantasy players. They definitely can score a shiteload of points, giving you boosts across multiple categories. It’s just that it’s a very simple explanation for success. There is a reason that players like Luke Ridnour, Nic Batum and Ray Allen have value and it’s not because they play in run and gun offences. Too often this is overlooked in favour of the dude who drops 30 points because he took 20 shots in a ‘wild win’.
—
This shirt made me laugh. A lot.
This dude is smoking crack when he says he traded Howard and Harris for Billups, Jackson and Tyrus Thomas. His FG% and Turnovers just got destroyed and who knows what will happen to Billups. However I like the pick ups (Monroe is pimping right now) so it’s definitely worth a read.
Please go and give some credence to the fbasketball blog Fantasy All-Star ballot. I hear you can win a ticket to the big (fantasy) draft in October (on the internet).
The Kitson Cup**
I used to think of myself as a very humble person in all aspects of my life. But for some reason, fantasy basketball brings out the inner jerk in me. Therefore, I will use this opportunity to gloat. I am currently sitting pretty in all three of my fantasy leagues. I know the best thing everyone likes to read about on blogs are other people’s fantasy teams, so let me begin.
From the start, is Dorell Wright the answer to all of life’s problems, or just most of them? The man is a machine. After picking him off the waivers about 7 weeks ago, I haven’t lost a game. I thought I misread his line last week when my stat-tracker said he had over a 100 points shooting at over 59% with 18 threes. But I didn’t. The team I was playing only managed 18 three pointers all week. At this stage of the season, it seems Dorell = Derrick Rose + Gilbert Arenas. Tasty. I really didn’t think anyone in GSW apart from Curry and maybe David Lee would be any good this season. Monta put that to shame and now Wright is steaming.
As I type this, Brook Lopez is currently 1-4 from the free throw line. How is this happening? I traded for Lopez and Blatche when I gave up on Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans earlier this season. At the time I thought it was the steal of the century, however as time progresses, I am more and more uncertain. Blatche plays one good game for ever 3 bad ones and Lopez has caught a terrible case of the seemingly infectious ‘Bargnani’ syndrome. Something so terrible, the player is unable to gather more than 6 rebounds per game. Considering I love BroLo, I’m not going to give up, I just feel dudded everytime I see his O-rank of 15. There is something really satisfying for me when I own players over more than one season. It’s like being a long-term relationship. When that person is Kevin Durant, nearly all of the time spent together is awesome. Unfortunately this is hardly ever the case. But in your heart of hearts, you know it’ll work out in the end, even if Tim Duncan has seemingly stopped playing from the December-March period of the season.
While Lopez is frustrating, at least he is on my team. The thing I will remember most about this season happened before a game was even played. Smack bang in the middle of our draft, about 2 hours after we had commenced, rounds 7 and 8approached. As I had the first pick, I took Gallinari. I needed a point guard. Just one, but I had seen the Rooster in person at the Garden and owned a $25 tshirt with his name! I told myself it’s OK, I’ll nab one in 15 picks. I had my heart set on Baron Davis (don’t ask me why, I’m just attracted to that incredible beard). He was snatched early. OK, no worries. Then the dreaded run of point guards began. Manu (kinda a PG), Brooks, Mo-mo, Devin Haris, GILBERT! I kept telling myself it was OK because I knew about Raymond Felton and no-one else did. I was already jumping with joy before he was taken right out of my hands by the jerk picking before me. A season dealt a terrible crushing blow before it even began. O.J Mayo was my consolation prize (this kind of sums up my draft). It doesn’t matter if I win every league this season, this will be the thing I remember most in years to come.
Onto more positive news. I am currently leading a bloggers league made up of a bunch of people from various fantasy basketball blogs. Probably because no-one else seems that interested in it. 14 teams seemed like too many when drafting but now that I’m at the top, it doesn’t seem like enough. Tippy from FantasyBasketballDaily is currently sitting one point behind me. While he makes money from playing cash games (which international players are cruelly excluded from), I sit and dream of what could’ve been. My team is made up of Grant Hill, Luke Ridnour, Francesco Garcia and Ben Wallace. I actually don’t know how I have even won one week. But there you go. Raymond Felton is part of this team. After the horrible first draft, I reached for him in the 4th round of this one. Looks like an amazing pick in hindsight however at the time it was 4am in the morning and I was just trying to keep my body awake by doing something dashing.
The problem regarding blogging and fantasy basketball for me is that when the season starts, I don’t really know what to do. Rotoworld seems to be the ultimate source of player updates, which are extremely important. A couple of other sites provide daily rounds ups (none better than GMTR and FBD). What is left? Incoherent ramblings such as this? A narrative of my personal experiences? A weekly over view of who killed it and who definitely didn’t? I think this is one of the main reasons why fantasy NBA has never made it to the ‘mainstream’. You don’t see fantasy stuff survive on sites like the Basketball Jones, Ball Don’t Lie or the TrueHoop network. It seems to be a very niche internet community which struggles to define how it fits in with the broader basketball world. Unlike MLB or the NFL, there isn’t (or at least doesn’t seem to be to me, at a computer in regional Australia) a solid link between the casual basketball fan and the fantasy nerd.
I’m going to go with incoherent ramblings until something better rears it’s ugly head in my mind.
Finally, if you own Roy Hibbert… suck it up sweet heart.
And very finally, I watch/listen to the Basketball Jones nearly every day for awhile now but this latest episode to me was one of the best for comedic gold.
**Every August to me is a special time of year. It is when the Fantasy English Premier League comes to life. I live amongst a group of friends whose mission in life is to watch as much EPL as possible. Personally, I can’t stand soccer. However, if it’s fantasy and it’s sports, I’ll give it a go. Two seasons ago, I managed to win their converted league during the very last game week (Malouda!). Now they have a trophy for it and it’s called the Kitson Cup. The reason I mention this at is because the name stems from an ability to play the ‘wild card’. In EPL, as opposed to the NBA, multiple teams can pick the same player and the competition is judged on aggregate points from the players in your team. However, once a season, you can trade as many players as you wish and totally revamp your entire team. This is the wildcard. I don’t know how this would ever work in fantasy NBA where people draft, but for those wallowing in the deep end of their respective leagues, it’s a great opportunity to give the season a whole new meaning.
Fantasy Round Table: Week 2
This weeks fantasy round table asks the question: What do you think of Stephen Curry going at an average of 7.9 in Yahoo drafts? That’s above Danny Granger, Deron Williams, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Amar’e Stoudemire, and David Lee… What do you think of Curry’s prospects compared to those other potential first round picks?
For the full collection of answers, head across to GMTR and read everyones response. I forgot to list everyone last time, so I’ll do it now. Ryan from Lester’s Legends hosted the first week, followed by Nels and Patrick this week at GiveMeTheRock. Also involved are; Jeff and Tom from Damn Lies and Statistics; Jason from fBasketballBlog; Tommy from Hoopsworld; Justin from Life is just a Fantasy Basketball Blog; Adam from Razzball; Will and Daniel from Rotoprofessor; and Nate from Rotoexperts. It’s a great group and hopefully there are some good insights throughout the season. To the question!
I’ll say this right at the top, I’m a big believer in Stephen Curry. He is more than just a special talent. His squad will continue to play Nellie-ball (albeit at a slightly reduced rate), he will improve with increased experience, he has better teammates surrounding him (mainly David Lee in the middle who was a pick n’ roll monster at New York) and he does everything you could ask for and more.
I love his potential to build on all the right point guard categories (points, assists, 3ptm, FT%, steals). You just cannot just the type of numbers he put up last season anywhere else. I know it’s only 8 games with a depleted roster, but check out his April 2010 stats: 26 points, 8 assists, 6 boards, 3.1 3ptm, 47%-89%, 2.6 steals and even 0.4 blocks (3.1 turnovers). This isn’t just a very good collection of numbers… it ranked as the number 1 option for the entire league in that period (and for the final 4 weeks of the season) despite Durant averaging about 33/10. It’s just sick.
But more than any other reason, I think Curry’s prospects are so high because of the general unknown factor regarding nearly everyone else. After one of the most active off-seasons in recent memory for player movement and squad upheaval, it’s no wonder people are unsure of certain players. Granger has a new point guard and is already injured. Williams has lost his most potent offensive friend (Boozer) who was replaced by someone who commands the ball to be effective (Jefferson). Stoudemire and David Lee are both in new environments. Dwight Howard still can’t hit free throws (but a caveat here, in H2H leagues you should take him above Curry) and Pau Gasol has never been a fantasy favorite.
In any other season, Curry doesn’t deserve to go so high. But the combination of his almost unlimited potential, his recent production history at the end of last season and the shaky ground which many other top fantasy players find themselves in leads to a fairly high average draft position. I can safely say if I have any pick from 5 through to 12 and he is still on the board, I will be taking him over some of his more esteemed colleagues.
Fantasy Basketball Nexus
I just wanna test out google with that heading, and moving onto more important things….
Some jerkoff on twitter has the following ‘top post’:
“@Cazzball If you finish last in a fantasy NBA league, you’ve actually won. #RandomThought”
Advice? Don’t pay attention to that guy, but read up on the links below!
I don’t have much time for the BleacherReport, but this is good stuff on Tyreke Evans.
A round up of sleeper lists from 6 different sites.
Tom Lorenzo continues his excellent series of who would you rather pick. This edition, Barbosa, Batum, Wright or Childress.
Jason at fBasketballBlog has already linked up this one, but it’s so good I feel the need to spread the good word far and wide. SleeperBot let’s you rank and tier players so easily then email it to yourself it’s almost unfair that it’s a free website. This is a MUST for any fantasy fanatic.
MFBarkley has a new podcast (#2) and maybe it’s just me, but I find it pretty hilarious to listen in on other guys chatting randomly about basketball. More fantasy please, but it’s all good.
I’m itching to do my drafts this weekend and beyond. Have three lined up over the next week. Bring it on!
Boring, Boring, Boring: Predictable Fantasy Players 2010-11
It’s round 12. You are sweating from your shitty computer overheating. You have run out of water/beer/vodka (circle as appropriate) but don’t want to get up because it’s pitch black apart from the dim lights of your screen. You just recently drafted a combination of DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Oden, Yao Ming, Wilson Chandler and Terrence Williams. You don’t know how it happened. You didn’t exactly aim for the most inconsistent bunch of flaky chumps this side of the 2009-10 Minnesota Timberwolves but it’s time to put your team back on track with some proven, although slightly boring, older hands. Deep breathes people, it will be OK;
Probably won’t be available in Round 12 but I liked the back story;
The statistical production of Ray Allen has been falling ever so slowly but so, so surely. Expect no less this season. On the plus side, he will not miss games, he will get his looks, he will be efficient. There is a reason this is titled boring, boring, boring and Ray Allen epitomizes this more than any other player in the league. He’s not flashy or in your face, he just does what he does, quietly yet predictively. I like O.J Mayo better this season but when it gets to that stage of the draft where Allen is on the board and you need a lock, there isn’t a better option at shooting guard.
Jason Terry is apparently overrated and has a ridiculously high ADP for his value according to these guys. Terry gets his minutes. Even with those role players last season he managed 33+ per game. He looks dropped off (-3 points) as did his long shots (-0.5). You just know though when you draft him, 1+ steal, 1.5+ steals, a delicious FT% on a pretty good number of attempts (3-4 per game) and super low turnovers. I must admit #65 is probably too high for my liking.
The Thunder can easily justify giving up max money to KD but the 2nd biggest story down in OKC this off-season is the lack of extension offered to Jeff Green. Maybe he isn’t getting it done on the court. As a fantasy owner though, you should know that he is playing for cash and that’s always a bonus. The problem with Green is his regression in his third season. Less points, boards and assists. Terrible drop off in 3FG%. It’s time to re-invent his game and it’s going to be pretty. You can bank the 15/6 and be confident he will be the 1/1/1 talent everyone recognises. And that’s about it. Lots of people avoid him for H2H (thinking he is a pure Roto stud) yet I don’t see it. Someone who chips in everywhere and is super consistent. The only reason people be hating is due to higher expectations and unfair comparisons.
The Truth, Paul Pierce, is another old dude who is going to drop off this season but the type of drop off is pretty predicable. Last season: 18/4/3, 1.5 3PM and 1.2 steals, 47%-85%. This season, same but reduced. 16 points, 3.5 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.2 3PM and 1.0 steals. Same percentages. You get the idea. It’s pretty simple. In Excel form it would look something like this: Production=(Previous Stats)/(Previous Age+365 days). Don’t input that bad boy into your spreads unless you want a nice #value? cell. In fact, you should probably forget about the Truth right now because some chump is going to take him waaay too early based on past reputation.
More typical 12th round suggestions;
Mike Conley is a dud, sorry Memphis fans. The number four pick from 2007 just cannot produce on the big stage. Conley is fine for 12/5 with about 45%. He’ll hit his three and grab a steal but nothing extra. He is lucky that the O.J Mayo @ PG was epic fail or his career would be spent on the bench. For fantasy 12th round purposes though, he is perfect. He can be your third back up PG who sits there all year, looking pretty. Don’t think of it as a wasted pick. There is even a little dash of upside if Rudy Gay, Mayo, Randolph and Gasol all go down with ‘flu-like symptoms’ for months of end.
For some unbeknown reason, whenever I see Beno Udrih’s name in print, I automatically pronounce it ‘Udrick’. Dunno why, just always have. Moving on. A lot of people will automatically assume because Tyreke Evans is a stud, anyone playing in the back court with him would be worthless. Wrong. Uridh averaged a career high in points and threes and tired his career highs in steals and assists last season. He played a solid 31 minutes a game. He is still the starting point guard on an up and coming team. Not exactly the first option but there will be a stackload of opportunity to manufacture some production. You can bank some pretty similar stats from last season (13/5 with steal/three). Not special, but worthy at the right (deep) spot.
Brendan Haywood is not exactly in a good place right now. After he moved to the Mavs last year he only averaged 26 minutes per game. Now he will be splitting time with Tyson Chandler. Yet in those 26 minutes, he still managed to construct 8 points, 7.5 boards and 2 blocks per game. Not bad at all. Keep an eye on him if you are going big and it starts to get a bit risky. He is nice insurance in case anything else goes wrong.
Like Haywood, Jarrett Jack is not loving his career right now. Sure he is the starting PG but it’s at possibly the worst team in the NBA and he has one of the best European point guards sitting right behind him. Despite all of this crap, Jack has obviously taken ‘Point Guard 101′. In 27 minutes per game last season he averaged 11.4 points and 5.0 assists. He has a wicked three point shot (+40% on 2.4 attempts) and shoots solid percentages (48/84 last season). All in all, he is like everyone else on this list. Wouldn’t cause a ripple in most places but plods along and gets the job done. When you are throwing up your late round flier of ‘random rookie pg x’, just pause one second and think if you have perhaps taken too many risks already? You probably haven’t but what the hell…
My housemate, myself and some bloke looking decidedly fed up by our shitty camera man
A worthy cause
Normally I like to think of the internet as a giant, free, ball of goodness. Then you think a little bit harder at your favorite sites and you quickly realise that certain people put in an amazing amount of work to maintain them and keep them awesome and up to date. This is the case is nearly everything which isn’t run for profit and purely for the joy of seeing others enjoy your work or the reward you get from writing, perhaps to escape real life which gets too hard sometimes.
Anyway, my favorite fantasy basketball site is GMTR and unlike last year, they aren’t putting a price on their fantasy advise, despite it being kick ass awesome. More fittingly (at least in my humble eyes), they are asking for donations. Nearly every punk on the internet has a paypal account, so it’s pretty easy, even if it’s only a couple of dollars. As an example of their work, this stuff on effective shooting is probably the one of the most useful and original spreadsheets I have come across this year.
Moving on from the gooey stuff, here are some other links;
Center rankings from Fantasy Hoopster. This stuff is awesome, Centers are the hardest spot to get right in drafts and Fantasy Hoopster has nailed it in this post.
FantasyBasketballDaily has all the updates on the latest bit players, including injuries, starting spots and other stuff.
fBasketballBlog has his take on the top 5 potential busts of the upcoming season. I agree with it all (except where is Rashard Lewis?)
Damn Lies and Statistics does the New Jersey Nets. It’s hard to make the Nets exciting, but there is some success here.
Finally, good luck to everyone drafting this weekend and in the week ahead. Remember, prepare… then throw it all out the window when you see some upside! It’s a philosophy where you might not win but you’ll have fun.
Potential WOW possibilities for fantasy 2010-11
There are always surprises in any given NBA season. Who would’ve thought last season Gerald Wallace would actually play that many games? How about rookies who actually make an impact which wasn’t happening in the past? It’s a surprise because it wasn’t expected (duh) but there are some possibilities which you can dream about and try to visualize. The following are ranked from most probable to least probable in my eyes and should be taken with the appropriate grain(s) of salt. The levels are my attempt to categorize and anyone on this list will provide a little to a lot of risk but the reward if it comes off is delicious.
“Brett Favre deciding to keep playing”: You really won’t be that surprised in this happens because it probably will, only with a shit load of ESPN coverage attached to it. LeBron James could average a triple-double. It’ll be amazing if he does, but will anyone think after the fact that he didn’t have it in him? Lots to be angry about, a renewed motivation to succeed and national coverage up the wazoo. John Wall has shown it all summer and now well into the pre-season but people still have him pegged as a 5-6th rounder most places I look (did see him in the 20s for one draft). Is it impossible to imagine him finishing in the top 20 this season with averaged close to 17 and 9 along with all the gravy? Not really. After the likes of Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry last season, you know rookies have the ability to put up the big numbers, it’s just a matter of time. That doesn’t make it any less impressive.
“Michael Jordan keeping his mouth shut until Christmas”: This is a bit less likely to happen however as the owner of a franchise, you never know. Every time I see the name Derrick Rose in the off-season, it’s always accompanied by the words “improved jump shot”. Despite this happening about every September, there is nary a shred of evidence. But surely it’s going to arrive one day? You can’t shoot 1000 shots a day and regress. Well, maybe you can, but not if you have Rose’s ability. I’m not believing this until I see it, but if you wanna go out on a limb, this is the last facet of his game which will transform him into a fantasy monster. Anthony Randolph must be happy for a new home but he has some stiff competition for minutes in NYC which is a rarity. With Amar’e manning the power forward role and Turiaf/Mozgov chewing up minutes at Center, it’s going to be interesting to see where he fits in. He has a history of not living up to the hype but on sheer athleticism he will get his shot. You’ll need to grab him before #60 I reckon in most leagues despite him being a complete 50/50 at this stage. Elton Brand is not having the same about of hype. People got burned bad last year by punting on him and it seems like no-one is ready to trust him. With an average draft rank at the moment of 88.7 (yahoo leagues), it’s not like you have to reach for him. But with Coach Collins looking to beef up his role and re-establish him as a go to man, it’s not like it’s a totally crazy pick. He has history of performing and while he is over 30, I can see a lot of upside relative to that average pick.
“The 0-5 49ers clinch their division by New Years Eve”: It’s amazing to think that this is an actual possibility but that’s just how bad the NFC West is this year (sorry for non-NFL fans). This isn’t even the worst category! Well, you might cringe at some of the names coming up but I really think there is a 20-30% chance of them hitting the big time (again) and dominating for long stretches of time. Vince Carter is not the guy he used to be. He is wasting shots, turning the ball over and doesn’t know how to be the crunch time scorer Orlando really lacks. But that said, he can still put the ball in the hoop when he tries, can pass a ball and chip in all around the court. If his motivation is high, if Orlando have it’s groove on from the start of the season AND if they are as pissed off about the Heat as they tell everyone, then Carter is going to be a nice addition. People are really ripping on him (and deservedly so) and he is in free fall in most draft lists. But you don’t just lose talent, it just rests dormant until the right time. I’m not expecting this to work out well but if it does, Carter will be a prominent piece on many fantasy rosters which end up winning their respective comps. Some people don’t care about contract years. Silly fools. Andrei Kirilenko is coming into his contract year and needs to perform if he is going to get another payday. The dude can’t rely on his body anymore and he is never going to average those past insane 5+ combined STL/BLKs yet he still holds value. Obviously a lot depends on his body. I can see him slotting onto this Jazz team though like a glove. He doesn’t have the pressure to score a bunch of points (D-Will, Jefferson will be the main options) while still being surrounded by fairly weak defensive players (or below average rebounders). I say AK has that small window to make a big splash at some stage during the season, stringing together some pretty impressive weekly totals. Andrew Bynum is probably a top 3 player on ‘Do Not Draft’ lists at the moment. It’s painful to own him. Week after week, his potential is there in flashes but the amount of games he missed or plays very limited minutes kills owners every matchup. Yet there is this inescapable feeling I get in my bones about him. He is so young, so talented and so freakin’ tall. He is still the future of the Lakers if they want him to be. I don’t have a very high opinion of his body being able to stay connected in all the right places….. but. It’s always the but. The potential is basically limitless. Plus, you can grab him in Round 9-10 in most leagues these days because of his history. I’m not advocating, just dreaming.
“Landing on the Hudson River…. when it’s frozen”: This will not happen unless divine intervention occurs on the basketball court. Still, if it does happen, just sit back and admire because you won’t be able to do anything else. I have always had this crazy fantasy which sits at the back of my head whenever I see Dwight Howard mentioned. Secretly, he knows how to hit free throws. He is just waiting to unleash it because he is such a stand up bloke and doesn’t want to destroy morale in the league by being so utterly dominant. Now I know this is outlandish and, to be frank with myself, pretty stupid on many levels. But if I can teach my under 12 kids to shoot free throws, then one day, Howard is going to wake up and be able to hit free throws. He just has to. It’s like gravity or some shit. It doesn’t have to make sense but there are a whole bunch of laws which only really smart people understand. Getting a bit off topic, but the one thing which gives me the shits more than anything about professional basketball players is not being able to hit their free throws! There is no-one stopping you, no-one abusing you. Just you and the basket. If you have to take 5000 per day over the off-season, then you do it. One person who can hit free throws and is over 7 foot is Yao Ming. Now it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Yao didn’t play a game last year and has walking disaster written all over him this year (limiting minutes, no back to backs, lots of support around him). How much is too much to ask for.. 55 games? 65? 70+? I’m not sure but if I see him anywhere near a draft spot around round 9, I know I’ll be there is a hurry because if everything does go right (and I realise I’m living in a fantasy here), he is going to provide first round value. %’s, points, boards, blocks. There is not much better than that. Perhaps my optimism is blinding me as I walk down towards th sunset yet I care not for at the moment, as I am blissfully unaware of the dangers ahead. All I see is a 1.37% chance of an 82 game season which draws me in, closer and closer.
Asleep at the wheel
Nearly every site has a sleeper list. Some of the better ones I have seen are GMTR and Razzball’s collection of posts (and there are more here and here). However I feel I need my 2 cents on everything so I’ll proceed via TIERS! Everywhere I look I see them dominating fantasy sites. In that spirit I will tier my sleepers.
Sleep walkers: Those players who aren’t really sleepers because EVERYONE KNOWS ABOUT THEM. This category is led by two players Linas Kleiza and Roy Hibbert. Kleiza is light sleeping because he found himself on a roster which has been gutted by the departure of one player (I don’t know how this even happens, but it did!) and somehow being the only player with the ability to rebound at the required rate for his position. He will score points, hit threes, rebound and generally be a good influence on someone else’s team, because they will have reached on him. Roy Hibbert on the other hand is set to explode all over the state of Indiana. The Georgetown alum is going to generate a lot of headlines this season. He has issues with fouls but hopefully he sorts that stuff out. He will probably be gone by the time you think about drafting him as well, but if you are SUPER keen, jump on him early as a reliable backup big man who could just go insane. The third player who should be here just because he is a rookie is DeMarcus Cousins. But as Tippy at FantasyBasketballDaily recently said, “If you had any thoughts of grabbing DeMarcus Cousins cheap in your draft, please wake up, that dream just ended.” in reference to Samuel Dalembert’s injury concerns. He’ll only need a short period to stamp his dominance on the game and become an established starter.
Light sleepers: Let’s get a bit more adventurous. D.J Augustin used to be everyone’s favorite ‘up and comer’ before it turned out he wasn’t any good and couldn’t even beat out Raymond Felton for the starting PG gig. Now he has that opportunity but all I can see is disappointed owners who end up cursing their 11th round draft pick. Mike Miller is in a totally different boat. He actually once player pretty good. He can also shoot the lights out, which makes it kinda strange he didn’t shoot the ball in Washington. You would’ve thought NBA players like to do that sort of thing. Oh well. There is where the definition of a sleeper becomes hazy. I think he qualifies because he is going to be AMAZING and lead the league in threes but for some reason still languishes way down on draft boards. Greg Monroe is not posed for such a feat. But he will be starting for the Pistons in the not too distant future as his potential shines through. People are aware of this guy and will take fliers in the very late rounds but you should get in first as a stash and wait player to really pay dividends in the 2nd half of the season. Don’t leave quality like this in the free agent pool if you have bench spots. Lastly for my light sleepers (although there are a whole bunch of other players who could qualify here) is Kelenna Azubuike. Enough people know about him to realise that he is injured at the moment and there is a bit of a congestion at the shooting guard spot in New York. However…. he could be so ridiculously awesome this season for a late round pick that you need to consider him.
The beard. Plain and simple...
Deep sleepers: The only thing you need to know about James Harden is that when you search his name in goggle, the first result to come up is ‘james harden bust’. That means that nearly everyone thinks he is a bust, resulting in his low average draft position. This year should not only see the sophomore surge for Harden, but also he will eventually either start or get enough minutes to be considered the teams 6th man. This means more threes, more steals and more points. Also, more beard.
Michael Beasley does not have the biggest fan club in the NBA. In fact I don’t think I know anyone who actively likes him. Poor attitude, drugs, extremely high expectations – they’ll all ruin a career, especially one so young. So I think it’s for the best that he has a new start somewhere out of the way. Lucky he got traded to Minnesota then. All Beasley needs is 32 minutes a night to highlight his potential. He could be a 1-1-1 threat combined with the ability to be a number one option on a poor team. This alone should ensure that he is drafted. Kyle Korver might not start but he’ll play 25+ minutes and he’ll have a great point guard giving him the rock. What more could you ask for? Well, I can think of a few things but this will do. Shooting Guards who don’t do much don’t make great sleepers but someone has to carry that offense while Boozer is out and he could have a really good start to the season.
In A Coma: Have you heard Brad Miller’s name mentioned once this off-season (excluding any article by Trey Kerby)?. The dude must have signed hi contract in Houston and decided to live underground for the past three months. Let it be known. Miller is the primary back up center to the man who did not play one single game last season. A man who is only allowed to play 24 minutes per game and perhaps not at all on back-to-backs. A man who can fall over in a stiff breeze. Brad Miller is your man in this case. I care not for the Patrick Patterson’s and Luis Scola’s of the world when Miller can be spreading the floor and icing games at the free throw line. It’s NBA blasphemy to say anything good about Darko Milicic so I’ll make it short. He is big. He is still young. He looks like he finally found a team where he will fit in. He will start. Apparently my housemate reckons he can pass better than any big man in the NBA and will average at least 4 assists per game. This makes him a round 4 pick in my books but I think you’ll be able to stash him in the final rounds. Francisco Garcia might have had the most freakiest and freak accidents last season but that doesn’t mean you are allowed to ignore him altogether. This dude is talented wrapped up in the perfect SF body. 1-1-1 potential dripping with extra goo. You could do much worse than ‘Cisco sitting on your bench waiting to explode.
