Two Man Mock Draft – Round 8

My last round was a mixed bag of emotions for Jason over at fBasketballBlog. Thanks for nothing Michael Beasley and Luol Deng. To catch up, here is Round Seven and you can scroll down a bit for past rounds.

At this point, I’ll also point out what I think have been some of the better picks so far and some of the surprising aspects to date. Jameer Nelson (#80) in the last round could turn out to be a real steal. Carter is only getting to be more useless and if Nelson can even produce 80% of his steller 2008-09 season, he’ll be a worthy player this season. I loved Ray Felton (#53) in the 5th. I think this is the perfect spot for him, as if you wait any longer, you will definitely lose him. It’s not just the D’Antoni affect either. He had so much promise coming into the league and this should be his opportunity to really showcase his entire skill set. A few surprises? Manu Ginobili in the 3rd round kind of freaked me out, but I can see how it could work with a massive front court of Wallace/Howard if everything goes right. I surprised myself by waiting on Luol Deng till the very end of the 6th round as I love his game and think the addition of C-Booz might boost things for him. But maybe I’m just tripping. Notable players still on the board after 84 picks (but perhaps not for long): Tony Parker and Carl Landry, both proven fantasy plugs for the middle rounds in recent seasons. I’ll have some more commentary after Round 13.

To mix things up, I’ll try and make this round a bit safer because I have been hurling down a mountain on one ski in the past couple of rounds. Not to say I won’t do it again, just this round seems like a good time to consolidate what is good and fill in gaps with safer options before the completely mind boggling picks of the late rounds occur.

85. Memo Okur (D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B. Jennings, J. Salmons): Some people would say this is a risky pick because of past health issues (he has missed 29 games over the past three seasons) but I feel it is safe because you know EXACTLY what you are going to get and can therefore plan around this. The floor for Okur is good percentages, 13/7 with 1+ three. It’s like a glove with this team. Nash, Jennings and Jackson have the small things covered and there seems to be a bit of a glut of smalls around the 105th pick mark, so we can cover more there. With Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson both undersized, the Jazz are going to rely on Okur even more than times gone by. This group of players might not be the most exciting to grace the floor, but as a collective unit, you could do a lot worse (listen up team four, we’ll get to you later).

86. Evan Turner (G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall, C. Butler): This was a really hard pick. I was looking for a pure scorer type of player. Here is a tip – get your scoring before the 8th round. While the three existing bigs on this team are going to crush opponents, there is a derth of scoring options and when you get to the 8th, there isn’t much left. I’m not sold on Turner, but he was better than the other options in my opinion. He lit up the college scene last year and has a big body which will help with his adjustment to the NBA. Andre Iguodala does him no help in fantasy terms, either does the as yet undrafted Jrue Holiday/Lou Williams guard combo. But if Turner can show he is the best player out of these guys (and he is), he will have little trouble demanding the ball when required… which will be all the time. This team is now an odd mix of super talented big guys while gambling on the small guys to pull their weight (Manu, Wall, Turner). I’d be worried if I were the owner, which I am in a strange kind of non-committed kind of way.

87. Andre Miller (D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge, T. Ariza): It pains me to lump Miller in with this team of cool cats. 34 years old, playing for the most boring franchise in the league, Miller is the antithesis of cool. But. He hasn’t missed a game in 3 seasons. This team needed another point guard (and it wasn’t going to be Tony Parker). He gets the rack and beefs up the overall strength of the team. Ariza was a great pick up for steals and threes (which Miller lacks both of relative to other point guards) and they will complement each other. It’s a good idea in the later rounds of the drafts to ‘pair-up’ picks to cover more bases. Despite the glut of guards at Portland, I don’t see his minutes dropping below 30/game and this seems to be about the right spot for his talents.

88. Carl Landry (S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett, E. Gordon): I worry a lot about Duncan and Bogut. Then I keep reading and KG slaps me in the face. Considering I drafted two of those three, this pick is about righting that injury risk. Landry might not be exciting. He definitely isn’t going to do anything unexpected. The best we can hope for on a pretty loaded Kings front court is approximately 13-14 points, 6 boards and a few steals all mixed together with some very efficient shooting percentages. It’s pretty easy to ignore stats like those, but at this stage of the draft, I feel he is the safest option left on the board for his position because he has already shown his game. Even if DeMarcus Cousins becomes a 20/10 monster (which I highly doubt), Landry will still be chipping away and will even benefit from the extra space on the floor which he opens up. After all that, I think I have talked myself into this team being one of the juiciest to date.

89. Rodney Stuckey (D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin, J. Nelson): Let it be known I feel dirty typing Rodney Stuckey if it is anywhere near a figure with only two digits. However I’m trying my heart out to play it nice and safe here and he is the top ranked player still available. It does make back-to-back point guards but at least they are proven in some sense of the word. There was once a time when Stuckey was going to be the next big thing. The 2008 playoffs were a long time ago though (in fantasy time) and he is now a definite 3rd tier point guard. His 40% from the field is mind blowing bad and it really hurts you because of the sheer amount of attempts per game he jacks (15 last season). He has shown the ability to score though and is your typical 15/5 with extra steals type of guard which I think fantasy players should normally steer clear of. In this case, D-Will and Nelson really did need some extra assistance and the big guys have things covered in most areas. I’m not giving myself good marks for this pick, but there is still a flash of potential that Stuckey can get things together and make some kind of mark this season. The Pistons need a leader now that Rip Hamilton has been reduced to bench duty and with some new young tall timber coming in, there is the chance of a new start in Detroit.

90. Jrue Holiday (P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson): The last three picks for this team have really boosted the scoring potential. The need for another point guard was pretty prominent as even Rondo can’t do it all. I am wary of Holiday because of the log-jam he is at thanks to Lou Williams. It must also be hard playing with Iguodala who likes to think of himself as some kind of undersized point-forward at times but as he grows in his sophomore campaign, I like his chances of really making a run at some good facilitation work in Philly. Per-36 minutes he averaged a touch under 6 assists per game last season and has good enough long distance shot to do some damage. It remains to be seen what happens to the Sixer’s back court but he should play a very important part going forward. This team is ready to really wrack up the steals and threes and if we can build on blocks heading down the straight, things are very positive.

91. Tony Parker (D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford, P. Millsap): I held out as long as I could (can you see the inbuilt bias against point guards yet?). Parker smells like trouble this season but at #91 you are severely minimizing the risk you have just taken on. As George Hill grows, Parker drops off. He played 56 games last season but more importantly, only just clocked 30 minutes per game. This meant this assists dropped by 1.2 and his scoring by 6 points. None of this is good but we are looking at it through a lens tainted by his freakish play in the earlier stages of his career. 5+ assists per game is still very solid at this stage of the draft and there is the guarantee that he plays at worse 28+ minutes. Hopefully this is enough for owners. In terms of this team, it was either go small here or totally forget about assists and steals. I nearly did that but Rose, Crawford and even Granger/Smith would be losing too much relative value. You would think steals/blocks/boards and threes are all solid without Parker, whose job is to bump up the assists and get the team over the line with 15 points per game.

92. Leandro Barbosa (K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola, R. Allen): The run of point guards was getting too much for me to handle. Barbosa has been one of my favorite players and it’s a massive shame that he was injured last season and then traded. Luckily enough, the Raptors play a very up tempo style of basketball and someone has build stats with all those possessions. In his last full season, he averaged 15+ points and 2+ threes. While a tad similar to Ray Allen in pure statistical output (at his best), I have high hopes that he will push up his assists and steals as well at the Raptors. It need not be by much, but another 2.5 assists and 1+ steals on this team doesn’t hurt anyway. This is the way to built a small ball team without any standout point guard. It might not be very text book, but I really dig it. Bryant/Ellis/Felton make up a very solid core of guards which are well complemented by Allen and Barbosa who push up the efficiency and knock down shots. Some might consider this a reach as Barbosa might fall a fair bit further but I’m a big believer in taking what you want regardless of others because you never know what will be available to you at the next pick.

93. Yao Ming (D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley, V. Carter): When Jason calls out for a center, I like to think I have the right goods to bring to this party. Mr Ming may not be second round material these days but according to recent reports he is on the road to recovery and should be fighting fit at first day of training camp. In case you have forgotten, here is Yao’s stat line from the 2006-07 season: 25/9.4/2 blocks, 52%-86%. Yummy. For all those people groaning into their keyboards, I realise this is not ever going to happen again. But here is something you can bank. 16 points, 8.5 boards and 1.5 blocks. Yeah, I said it. All those people picking up DeMarcus Cousins while the cross their fingers that he gets anywhere near those numbers? Yeah they crazy. I know those numbers come with a MASSIVE question mark about health and stress fractures, but at this stage this team had little option. They don’t have anyone who can block. They don’t have someone who will threaten 10+ boards on a nightly basis. Now they have both of these things. And if it all goes south? They can sell team name jerseys on their blog to China FTW.

94. Andrew Bynum (C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams, C. Kaman, G. Arenas): Speaking of big guys who love spending time on the pine, welcome Andrew Bynum! Lets run through the good things first. Last season he played 65 games, which was nearly as many as the previous two combined. He played 30 minutes a night. He played through pain (Kobe has been teaching him tricks, he played all 15 games for the Lakers last December and while he only logged 27 minutes per night average, it’s a great sign he toughed it out). He averaged career highs in points (15), FT% (74%) and FGA (10.6). This is all great news. Now for the bad. He is still playing with Gasol and Odom who are used heavily to protect Bynum from himself. Even when he does string together a bunch of games, you never feel safe when he is occupying your center spot. His turnovers are rising (1.8 last season) and his boards (8.3 last season) aren’t rising as expected. He also has this knack for putting in monster games and following them up with absolute crud. He really should be averaging more blocks and a high FG% but this isn’t the end of the world. Like Yao, but to a lesser extent, there is risk associated with this pick but you have to remember, players do get over injuries sometimes. Who predicted Andrew Bogut last season for instance? For this team, he gives them grunt in the middle with those extra boards and blocks, which Chris Bosh might be too flaky to count on.

95. Tiago Splitter (L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng, R. Lewis): Any team with LBJ on it doesn’t need to be sensible in the 8th round. These are where the advantages of having a top 3 pick really start bearing fruit. Because James does so much with the ball (assists, boards, points), he is like having this awesome combo guard-forward who you don’t need to compensate for in the late rounds. This team is pimping at the moment. They are rock solid across nearly every category. That’s why it’s time to start picking the cherries which aren’t quite ripe yet, but will age flawlessly in your fridge. Splitter was the MVP of the Spanish league last season. According to an April installment of my favorite odd-ball NBA post, ShamSport’s ‘Where are they now’, Splitter averaged 16.4 points and 7 boards while playing only 27 minutes in the Spanish League with whoppingly (I know this isn’t a real word) good percentages (60-79). Now, I don’t know about you, but this sounds like my kind of Center. He immediately slots into starting Center at the Spurs thanks to his experience in Europe and he starts helping everyone around him. With Duncan at PF, he will have opportunity galore to get easy looks under the basket. I’m drooling just thinking about it and he might even make the Spurs watchable on the TV. He turns this team into an above-average big man unit to a beastly one which will crush opponents on the boards while his percentages will shore up any mishaps from Mr Deng or Mr Roy (both my picks). [Friendly sidenote which in no way is meant to offend: I disagree with Jason about the relative worth and end of season statistical output of Lewis over Deng. This season could be known in Chi-town forever more as Ding Dong Deng if my dreams of regular smack downs come to reality. Also, Rashard Lewis is a hack. End of argument.]

96. Tyrus Thomas (K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry, M. Thornton): My man crush on Tyrus continues. As this is my favorite team in the mock, I kind of wanted to cheat and put Splitter here for the sake of making my own personal team, but I felt that was definitely defeating the purpose of a two man mock draft. Instead, I went with the enigma that is Thomas. Chicago was a cruel place for young Tyrus growing up. So many expectations were placed on his brittle shoulders. In short bursts, he would demonstrate his ability but this just frustrated fans and fantasy owners even more so when he failed to show up for the majority of his games (not literally of course). But the Bobcats are a whole new ball game. They are defensive specialists who love to slow the ball down. Even playing only 21 minutes per game while carrying an injury, Thomas managed 10 points, 6 boards, 1.5 blocks and nearly 1 steal per game. Imagine if he actually plays 30 minutes a game? Plus, as a bonus, you get him at extremely great value because he has pissed off so many other owners that they won’t touch him. Yahoo has him penciled in as their starting PF. Regardless of what actually happens, it will be a real adventure peeking through your fingers to glimpse at box scores when he is involved. This team is stacked with scorers, has thrown away assists and filled with promise. This is my dream team. Jason, don’t stuff it up =)

And with that, I’m spent. A re-cap below. I have started naming teams, I hope nobody minds. I know, they are childish but every team should have a name. Feel free to suggest away and I’ll change them accordingly.

Team Delicious: K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry, M. Thornton, T. Thomas
Team 2: L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng, R. Lewis, T. Splitter
Team Bang Bang: C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams, C. Kaman, G. Arenas, A. Bynum
Team 4: D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley, V. Carter, Y. Ming
Team 5: K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola, R. Allen, L. Barbosa
Team 6: D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford, P. Millsap, T. Parker
Team 7: P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson, J. Holiday
Team 8: D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin, J. Nelson, R. Stuckey
Team Frail: S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett, E. Gordon, C. Landry
Team Dope: D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge, T. Ariza, A. Miller
Team Future: G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall, C. Butler, E. Turner
Team 12: D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B. Jennings, J. Salmons, M. Okur