Fantasy Basketball 2010: The First Round Dilemma Pt. 1
In 2009-10, there was pretty clear consensus that the top 3 picks (Chris Paul, LeBron and Wade) would all provide great value. In 2010-11, it’s a similar thing, except Wade has been bumped by Kevin Durant. What’s so different about 2010 though, is that I have seen a lot of comments from people willing to forego the picks from 4 right through to about 8 or 9, because the perceived value isn’t there this season.
Why is this the case? A clear message has arrived for this fantasy season heading forward. Dirk is the number four option and it’s not a favorable one. He is closely followed, in not particular order, by Wade, Bryant, Gasol, Granger and in some cases, Williams. In 2009, a very different picture was in vogue. Last year, it was clutch for value, in the form of Kevin Durant and Danny Granger occupying positions in the 4, 5, 6 range across most drafts.
I don’t know why this narrative has emerged this season. Nothing against Dirk, but his numbers aren’t exactly going to surprise anyone this season. They will be solid. They will be consistent. They will be boring. Last season he was 25/8, with 48% from the field and 91% from the line alongside 1 block, .9 steals and .6 threes per game. This season, you can pencil all of that in again, with a slight down tick in steals, threes and boards. These are fine numbers for fantasy basketball…. just not at number 4. At number 6 or 7, it makes a lot more sense. Personally, I will be taking Kobe over Dirk if forced to this season, but I will be taking neither of them at number 4. For me, the choice comes down to Wade or Stephen Curry (I have an inbuilt receptor which hates Pau Gasol and will never draft him while Deron Williams and Danny Granger cannot be trusted with such grand responsibilities).
In both of these cases, the risk/reward factor is what strengthens their draft position.
The case for Wade:
Despite what anyone will tell you, no-one knows what is actually going to happen on the Heat team this season. LeBron might average a triple-double. Chris Bosh might turn into a decent defender (are you laughing yet?) and Dwyane Wade might become the greatest closer the NBA has ever seen purely because of the pressure which will not be applied to his every move. It all depends on three things for Wade. How many points/assists he gives up to LeBron, how many extra steals/threes he can manage if the pace increases and how many minutes he sits because of 20+ point leads in the 4th quarter. Personally, I feel it is going to take some time for this team to gel properly. Sure, they will win a lot of games, but it will not be easy in any sense of the word. I think the pace will increase substantially and I think all of this benefits Wade. I say his numbers will bottom out to about 23/5/5 however his FG% will rise to 48%+, together with more threes, 2+ steals and hopefully a block. Let’s call this a pimped out Kobe Bryant. All of these things are better than Dirkalicious and the only real threat in my eyes is if it all comes together quicker than expected and his minutes plummet to under 34/game. The real thing at play here is the unknown aspect. The risk you take with Wade might well pay off much better than anyone is expecting. At the same time, even with drop offs in every category, he is still at worst, late first round talent. Think of this as an investment in property, as opposed to a Ponzi scheme.
The case for Curry:
This all really comes down to one thing. Will Don Nelson stay for the season, or will he leave at some under determined point in the future? Curry was the number ONE option in fantasy basketball in last season’s playoffs and that says a lot when you have Kevin Durant going off for 30 and 10 every night. You just don’t get these numbers anywhere else; 26 points, 8 assists, 6 boards, 3 threes, 48%-89% and 2.6 steals. It’s like combining Rajon Rondo’s PG ability with Ray Allen’s SG ability and throwing in the points and rebounds just for fun. It wasn’t fair. These numbers are not to be expected as a constant for the 2010-11 season but they are a very good indication of what can occur for Curry in various parts of the season ahead. With the David Lee addition to the team, the pick n’ roll game will step up another level. The only thing which precludes Curry from automatically being picked up at this spot is the coach and the system he brings with him. New owners at Golden State might not tolerate a 8-30 start to the season despite fantasy owners deploring them to maintain the status quo. Adjusting Curry’s stats to ‘average’ NBA pace still produces some very solid categories, but it is not top tier first round talent by any means. This is a greater gamble but then again, if Curry even registers a small sophomore leap, it’s a gamble which could rock your world.
For mine, the risks associated with Curry are greater in the short term however Wade scares the crap out of me come fantasy playoffs if the Heat have secured a solid lead in the East. At this stage I’m leaning towards Wade but will very possibly change my mind over the coming months. And if we get one or two spots lower in regard to Curry, it’s not even a debate anymore. You take him and ride him all the way into the sunset.
Next up, we’ll debate Granger and Williams. If I find space in my small black heart, we might also cover Gasol at some stage in the distant future.
(Note: no Dirk Nowitzki’s were harmed during the production of this blog post)
Fantasy Basketball and that time of the year
Are all your friends talking about fantasy football and how awesome it is because they just drafted Chris Johnson? Chumps. It’s that time of the year for fantasy basketball where all news is boring news (see: Carmelo Anthony and the Nuggets and figuring out why so many people care about Rudy Fernandez despite him being a minimal role player at best).
Jason finished up our two man mock draft over at fbasketballblog. Here is round 13. I was going to do a full blown recap, but for a August mock draft, I thought it was a bit excessive. Instead, I’ll go with the best and worst picks in my eyes. First, Michael Beasley as a 6th rounder? Seriously, what was I thinking? While I was trying to slot him into a real ‘fantasy’ team (this sentence doesn’t make sense thus far), it was an epic fail. The T’Wolves actually have some talent as opposed to last year and Beasley hasn’t exactly shown much to date even as the second option on a shitty team. D- for this pick. Jason snagged Monta in the third round. It isn’t in the same ball park as the B-Easy variety, but I still think this is pretty high for a scorer who is going to be reduced to the third option on the Warriors team which has great uncertainty around the coach. But, I can live with it. Also, Dwight Howard should really make an appearance in the first round but each to their own. Good picks? D-Will at #8 even though I would have taken him above Granger and Gasol personally but still some people aren’t sold. The fact that he does nearly everything shouldn’t put you off people. Turkoglu in the 5th is a risky in the extreme but I LOVE it. Same with Ray Felton. Bogut in the 4th was probably my best as he is top shelf these days. It was good fun reading what another person thought about the direction of individual teams and how certain players matched up. So cheers Jason, until next year. Speaking of, see this post if you are interested in a mock draft next Thursday.
Since I have nothing original to say, I’m going to take the liberty to comment on other people’s work. I am trying to slog away at a beginners guide and player list, but it’s still awhile away yet.
Over at a relatively new blog (from what I can tell), Life is Just a Fantasy… Basketball Blog, there is a whole bunch of stuff about individual players and what the coming season holds for them. He likes Reggie Williams but has a distinct distaste for Greg Oden (Shame!). Perhaps some of you know my like of all things which came out of the 2007 draft and that’s why I shed tears when I see predictions ranging from the 10th to the 12th round in most people’s predictions. It’s his time to shine and it’s going to happen. That’s all I’ll say at this stage. Just be glad when your 8th round pick starts putting up 12-12-3 every night.
Give Me The Rock have their awesome, fantastically wonderful NBA schedule up already. This year it comes with improvements in the form of the entire NBA schedule, a weekly fantasy schedule, a daily schedule and a team comparison chart. I dunno what more you could ask for? Some pizza pie I suppose. Also, Nels breaks down the Denver Nuggets and Erik tackles the Milwaukee Bucks, nearly making up for the fact he wrote off Andrew Bogut last season… =) I agree with both these guys on most things except I never touch Chris Anderson (mostly because he scares the shit out of me) and I’m not loving Drew Gooden because Luc Mbah Morte is an athletic freak of nature who is going to dominate defensively in the near future and Scott Skiles loves defense. Also, Drew Gooden will have moved teams by Mid-November.
Fantasy Basketball Daily breaks down the SG position for this season. Unsurprisingly Kobe and Dwyane feature on the list. Somewhat more surprisingly, O.J Mayo comes in at #6. I love it, but I think most people will wait on him and go for the likes of Kev-Mart, Manu and Ray-Ray before they touch Mayo. He is also high on Mike Miller. If you are in need of three’s at any point, grab him and start smiling wildly. For Facebook fans, here is the new Fantasy Basketball Daily fan page.
And finally, Dr. A over at Rotoworld has a new Q&A column up which I’m sure most people have already seen if you read anything about fantasy basketball. Some of the questions are daunting indeed. On the Darren Collison question, I think he ranks ahead of Mo Williams, Aaron Brooks and John Wall. Of course, this depends on if you value assists more so than FG% or TOs.
Come next week, there will be some actual creative writing instead of rounding up other people’s hard earned keyboard strokes. Since there are other sites doing collective teams and in-depth positional looks, I will try and focus on a few things which get overlooked from my perspective. Like how an ageing Jason Kidd is still infinitely times better than anything Devin Harris will attempt on a basketball court in the 2010-11 season and a few strategy pieces which need rehashing (point guards and power forwards is so 2006).
Two Man Mock – Round 12
Jason handed out cookies in Round 11. He is a big softy when it comes to being nice. For Round 12, all you get is a link to Round 1 (because if this is your first time, you need an introduction) and a big picture of pick number 133. Please note we are not going to update or change anything for the trade which just went down and any into the future (but please also note my predictive $kills by picking up Collison in the 10th round one day before he got traded). This is my last round in this draft. I’m going to go out with a bang and pick the best people left on the board at each pick, as that’s what I try and do in Round’s 12 and 13 in normal drafts (also try and spot any starters still left on the board who have been overlooked). Now, back to that picture…
Old School, Josh, Old School.
133. Josh Childress (D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B. Jennings, J. Salmons, M. Okur, B. Diaw, D. Collison, D. DeRozan): The kid out of Stanford didn’t like it much at the Hawks when he was last in the NBA so he left to play in Greece. Good for some. But now he is back and he has ended up at the Phoenix Suns, a place where mere mortals become fantasy legends. In 2007-08 with the Hawks, he put up 12/5 with a few extras thrown in and one wicked FG% – 57%. With more experience, you would think he could build on that, especially in the Suns system. But then again, Jarred Dudley, Grant Hill, Hedo Turkoglu, J-Rich and Hakim Warrick will all have some things to say about that in the playing time discussion which will occur. He has a proven ability to put some points on the board and is never going to kill you with poor turnovers or percentages. Plus, you get that afro all season long, even if it sits on your bench.
134. JaVale McGee (G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall, C. Butler, E. Turner, E. Brand, C. Frye, M. Conley): You know JaVale. Sure you do. He plays for Team USA these days. It’s a sad situation but whatever. This 7’0 beast is just waiting to destroy the NBA. Last season he struggled to do anything but freed from the shadows of Brendan Haywood after he was shipped to the Mavs, McGee did show some promise at the end of last season, averaging 13 points and 8 boards in the last 8 games of the season on only 23 minutes per game. With no-one else actually being able to play Center for the Wizards, this is as good as it gets for McGee and fantasy owners in the 12th rounds in search of height. Anyone with 4 capital letters in their name can’t be all that bad as well and if anything, this team needed some more height (/* sarcasm). But if anything happens to one of the 5 PF/C’s on this team who are before him, the owner can rest easy that JaVale has his back (public service announcement: in honour of McGee amazingly making Team USA, for the rest of the this round all players will have 4 capitalised letters in their name).
135. ThAdeus YoUng (D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge, T. Ariza, A. Miller, M. Miller, T. Williams, A. Johnson): Before he went down towards the end of last season, Thaddeus was crushing his opponents. He scored double digits 49 times last season (the Sixer’ only won 17 of those games though), to end up with 13.8 points and 5.2 boards per game. It was this third season and many fantasy owners are probably a tad disappointed he hasn’t amounted to more yet. He doesn’t block, didn’t shoot very well last season (47% and 69% as a Forward) and seems to be stuck with nowhere to go. That’s all pretty negative but even if he gives you 12/5 at this stage, you are not going to be super disappointed. Plus, when Elton Brand and AI9 suffer long season-threatening injuries before Christmas, his stock will rise again. If you combine the last two draft picks for this team (Amir and Thaddeus), you nearly get a pretty good NBA player.
136. AnDerson VaReja0 (S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett, E. Gordon, C. Landry, A. Harrington, J. Calderon, Ma. Williams): I don’t know how he slipped to here. No LBJ. No Big Z. At worst he will end up with 11 boards a game, lots of bandages from falling over so much and the stupidest hair in the NBA. Andy, as he is affectionately known by those few people who actually like him, could make a massive leap this year but my gut says he will fall over on route because the wind picked up a bit. He will play 35+ minutes which equals more steals and blocks, both of which he could average 1.5+. Very handy at for this position. Further, while he is ‘offensively challenged’ to be polite, he should manage at least 10 points per game as J.J Hickson can’t do it all.
137. TaYshaun PrInce (D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin, J. Nelson, R. Stuckey, J.R. Smith, G. Oden, M. Chalmers): We are really scrapping the barrel at this point. Tayshaun (apart from also being a member of a previous Team USA) is one of those fantasy players I have an unexplained dislike for. Maybe it’s his blandness. 13/5/3 every year. Repeat. However now that T-Mac has joined the Pistons (please note his absence on this list… Jason… don’t even think about it), he might have to share whatever crumbs he still gathers in Detroit. He provides some very light cover for Blake Griffin as they are similar sort of players, if you ignore the athleticism, charm and ability to make basketball look fun from Griffin. Sorry to all those Prince lovers out there, but I just don’t get it.
138. JaMario MoOn (P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson, J. Holiday, R. Hibbert, K. Azubuike, T. Outlaw): Talking of players too cool to name, I think our man Mr Moon fits snug in this team. There will be a bit of speculation about Jamario this season and everyone wonders what happens to the Cavs after LeBron leaves town. To be truthful, no-one really knows. He did everything and now he is gone, someone is going to have to step up. Moon is a good a bet as anyone else. He can stretch the floor with his distance shooting, is very athletic and can steal/block when given the opportunity. He could end up playing a lot of minutes at SF alongside Hickson and Varejao to try and move the ball up and down the floor as quickly as possible. That’s what I’d do and my two coaching championship trophies (under 12 girls division 2) I think attest that my opinion actually means something. If Azubuike, Outlaw and Moon all get some minutes this season, this team is going places fast. Then again, if they sit on the pine, there is some pretty serious trouble ahead.
Yes Please (Photo: NBAE/Getty Images)
139. WeSley JoHnson (D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford, P. Millsap, T. Parker, R. Lopez, L. Odom, B. Udrih): Here is a real cool cat. You wanna make a big impression? Rock up to the NBA draft rocking that outfit to the right. Despite being drafted by one of the craziest GM’s who ever lived, big Wes is ready for the NBA. After spending an eternity at College, he is ready to hit the big time. He likes to score, hit the long ball and can block too. Well, he could do all that against undersized players in College who hadn’t reached puberty yet. At a minimum he is worth a pick in the late rounds because he is a pretty solid chance to wrack up 1.5+ threes and 10-12 points. This of course all depends on the how the minutes are divided up at Minnesota this season, but it doesn’t hurt to take a bit of a chance and hope for the best. He shores up three’s to consolidate on Granger’s strengths and is a patchy, possible diamond in the rough type pick.
140. RoNnie BrEwer (K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola, R. Allen, L. Barbosa, C. Maggette, G. Monroe, R. Artest): There is only one certainty here. Steals. Lots and lots of steals. It doesn’t matter where Brewer plays, the result is always the same. Last season for Utah he managed a touch over 30 minutes, but managed to grab 1.6 per game. In the five games he played for Memphis, he grabbed a steal every 12 minutes (and shot 23% from the field…). I don’t like him for anything else, but with Monta, Felton, Kobe, Artest and Barbosa, this is turning into a break and enter kind of team. There is also the added bonus that if Luol Deng goes down, which is a more than reasonable proposition, you get bonus steals as his minutes shoot up.
141. DrEw GoOden (D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley, V. Carter, Y. Ming, D. Cousins, W. Chandler, E. Okafor): We’re going big here. Dr. Ew joins Okafor, Yao and DeMarcus as late round selections for this team. Playing for the Bucks is not a bad sign for Gooden, but the rate at which he moves teams (8 in 8 seasons) does mean that he might be playing elsewhere by the time you finish this article. For the Clippers last season, Gooden put up decent numbers, 15/10, over 24 games. He also shot an amazing 92% from the free throw line on 4.2 attempts per game which is like gravy. I don’t expect that at the Bucks but even if he gets in that vicinity, this owner won’t be complaining.
142. CaRlos DeLfino (C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, Mo Williams, C. Kaman, G. Arenas, A. Bynum, A. Kirilenko, S. Dalembert, A. Morrow): Anthony Morrow got me excited as this teams last pick, then he became the starting SG at the Nets after Courtney Lee left so I decided to add some impact by backing him up with extra three’s. Carlos hit 1.8 per game last season as he sat out on the line and dropped bomb after bomb. Admittedly this kind of killed his FG% (40.9 for the season) but he also kicked in 11 points and 5 boards, really helping out a lot of owners who picked him up off the waivers as he caught fire. As the Bucks grow as a team, his role will probably reduce but I still think he will be good for 1.5+ per game. He is probably still on cloud nine after beating the Hawks last year in Game 4 as he buried 6 of 8 from distance while also condemning Coach Woodsen.
143. KeNyon MaRtin (L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng, R. Lewis, T. Splitter, B. Gordon, J. Flynn, D. Favors): When you search ‘Kenyon Martin Injury Update’ in google and get hits from 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, you recognise this pick, even in Round 12, comes with some risk. As in, he might not play another game. Ever. He is questionable for the start of training camp and has no date set on a recovery. Hmm. When you are turning 33, this is not exactly a positive sign. But if he gets healthy, he dude can ball. Even in a shortened season (54 games) last year, he averaged 11.5/9.5 with 1+ blocks and steals. This is a long way from his hey day, but it’s pretty good production where you can grab it. Considering this team is already set for the season ahead, these types of picks can really add some value down the track.
144. BrEndan HaYwood (K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry, M. Thornton, T. Thomas, Ge. Hill, S. Ibaka, A. Biedrins): You can’t teach height. Heywood is 7’0. Lesson over. Despite the Mavs potentially playing small ball with Dirk at the 5, the trade for Tyson Chandler and the pretty uneventful 28 games last season which Haywood played for the Mavs, there is a sense of inevitability with this pick. 8 points, 9-10 boards, 2 blocks. Pretty simple. Team Delicious didn’t really need another big man but I couldn’t resist trying to build that lead in blocks, the hardest category to gather stats in. Biedrins, Ibaka and Haywood will provide plenty of those and also some trade bait along the way if required or injuries hit.
And so it was. My part concludes in this epic two man draft which has spawned two weeks and counting. I’ll have a few looks back at where things could’ve improved along the way once everything is wrapped up by Jason with Round 13. It’s been an interesting challenge to draft with two different people. I thought a couple of times I was steering a direction only for it to be flipped completely, but the old adage, 2 heads are better than 1, is true in fantasy basketball just as it is in other facets of life. Below is an updated team list… minus cookies.
Team Delicious: K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry, M. Thornton, T. Thomas, Ge. Hill, S. Ibaka, A. Biedrins, B. Haywood
Team Bulls 2.0: L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng, R. Lewis, T. Splitter, B. Gordon, J. Flynn, D. Favors, K. Martin
Team Bang Bang: C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, Mo Williams, C. Kaman, G. Arenas, A. Bynum, A. Kirilenko, S. Dalembert, A. Morrow, C. Delfino
Team Ipecac: D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley, V. Carter, Y. Ming, D. Cousins, W. Chandler, E. Okafor, D. Gooden
Team Tru Warier: K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola, R. Allen, L. Barbosa, C. Maggette, G. Monroe, R. Artest, R. Brewer
Team Stolen Block Party: D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford, P. Millsap, T. Parker, R. Lopez, L. Odom, B. Udrih, W. Johnson
Team Too Cool to Name: P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson, J. Holiday, R. Hibbert, K. Azubuike, T. Outlaw, J. Moon
Team Big Time: D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin, J. Nelson, R. Stuckey, J.R. Smith, G. Oden, M. Chalmers, T. Prince
Team Frail: S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett, E. Gordon, C. Landry, A. Harrington, J. Calderon, Ma. Williams, A. Varejao
Team Dope: D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge, T. Ariza, A. Miller, M. Miller, T. Williams, A. Johnson, T. Young
Team Future: G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall, C. Butler, E. Turner, E. Brand, C. Frye, M. Conley, J. McGee
Team Know Your Limits: D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B. Jennings, J. Salmons, M. Okur, B. Diaw, D. Collison, D. DeRozan, J. Childress
Darren Collison Just Became Liquid Gold
There have already been many fantasy reactions to the Pacers/Hornets/Rockets/Nets deal which went down last night. Fantasy Hoopster thinks Roy Hibbert is a big winner, Fantasy Knuckleheads believes it pushes Grangers value even higher, while there is green, yellow and red all over the page at fBasketballBlog (even Josh McRoberts gets a mention!). But while everyone seems to like the move for Mr Collison, I don’t get the impression this is going to really rocket him up many ranking boards to the level of Russell Westbrook or even Devin Harris. This might be a bit harsh as I haven’t seen any numbers attached to him draft wise, yet the excitement that was around for the David Lee trade doesn’t seem to be replicating in this case. Is this fair?
Collison was quite a sensation last season. The 21st pick in the draft out of UCLA, he ended up on the Hornets as an afterthought for backing up Chris Paul. When Paul went down, Collison stepped up. Despite averaging 4.1 turnovers per game as a starter, this was offset by the gaudy numbers elsewhere. 18.8 points, 9.1 assists, 3.5 boards, 1 three, 1.4 steals and seriously impressive shooting percentages – 48.5% and 85.2%. Remember, this wasn’t just for 5 or 10 games. This was a data set of 37, playing over 40 minutes a night. Sorry if you think otherwise, but those are late second round numbers in my book for a point guard.
Do I think those numbers will be put in Indiana? Don’t be stupid. On the New Orleans team minus CP3, he quickly became the first option on offense, with Marcus Thornton providing help on the perimetre and David West helping out inside. With the Pacers, he will be lucky to be the primary number two option, behind Danny Granger. Granger has been doing it all nearly on his own and last season resorted to just bombing away from distance. He doesn’t need to do that anymore, but he will see just as much of the ball. Probably just in better looks. Collison will also have to involve Roy Hibbert as much as possible as the Pacers look to develop the big guy now that Troy Murphy has disappeared. Plus, the Pacers have Hansbrough, Dunleavy, Stevenson, Rush and George who will be in the rotation at various points and need their touches. Despite all this, Collison should be the second option.
With that established, what type of production do we expect in Indiana and is it worth getting a little but more excited about? If we account for a substantial increase in output from Roy Hibbert (11.7 points last season) and even a touch more scoring from Granger as he comes into the season hopefully fully healthy (24.1 ppg in 2009-10), we still have a lot of room to move. Murphy dropped 14.6 points per game last season. Some of this will go to Hibbert, but they play a very different style of game (outside softy vs. inside hard man). I’ll say Hibbert peaks at 15 points per game this season. Granger should return to his best, which was 26.8 ppg in 2008-09. So that leaves about 9 Troy Murphy points (as the second scoring option on a team). We’ll throw in Earl Watson’s 8.0 points as a starter as well. That’s 17 points. Now, using my very non-mathematical logic, let’s add another 5 points because Collison has shown he is a pimping player and much better than Troy Murphy or Earl Watson. 22 points. To be fair, we need to take away points for those others mentioned before. So minus 5 points for those guys to split between them in addition to their averages last season. That leaves 17 points. Not a bad start.
Assists. At the Hornets, who play at the 15th quickest pace factor in the league, Collison averaged 9+ game with fellow starters Thornton, Peja, West and Okafor. At the Pacers, who last season played at the 2nd quickest pace factor in the league, our boy will line up with Dahntay Jones, Granger, Hansbrough (possibly) and Hibbert. The pace factor is near 5 possessions higher per game and I will subjectively assert that the starting line up’s are about even (Granger is far superior to West, while the other Hornets probably outrank the other Pacers by a small margin). I don’t think he will play 40 minutes+ per game at the Pacers, so that is a negative in the assist column. After summing all that together, the assists should come out at about 8-9 per game depending largely on how Collison and Granger connect with each other.
Therefore we are looking at potentially a 17/8 type of guy, who can also knock down the three and with the higher pace factor, should push his steals up towards 2+ per game. Not bad numbers at all. In fact, they are damn impressive.
Of course, it’s easy to speculate on stuff like this and then see it all come crashing down in flames when the actual season starts thanks to poor chemistry or an inability to carry that kind of form throughout an entire 82 game season. But if you like a point guard who scores, dishes, provides other tasty extras and you like to gamble a little bit, Collison in the late 3rd to early 4th round sounds about right to me. People inevitably sleep a little bit on players when they are in new situations but all the signs point to a very productive season for the newest Pacer.
PS: I recognise the nature of my analysis might not be ‘scientific’ enough for some people. However remember that this is not a science. No-one predicted that Steph Curry would be first round talent last season and some people were even sceptical on Durant in the top 5. This is my personal best guess on the situation.
Things are getting real: The (Fantasy) NBA Schedule Arrives
Well boys and girls, the NBA schedule was released today and what a day it is. This might not mean much to your average fan, but it fantasy guru’s all over the internet it means the first look at what will determine many things to come this season. When you set your weekly line ups, make sure you are checking these things out.
I’ll have something to put up as a tool just for ease of use, but it won’t be available for awhile. So while we wait for that, let’s take a peek at what two others have already achieved in a very short time frame.
First up, Doneycat over at Tales Of 9 Cats has dumped his early analysis on us. Manual counting? For The Win. As he poignantly observes in his dot points there are 3 teams this season with a 5 game week as opposed to last season when it was just the lonesome Bucks. His post comes accompanied with scheduling grids just for your pre pre-season analysis. A big tick from me.
A little bit more high tech, but not as many ghetto points, NBA Stuffer has some rest days analysis. While this doesn’t actually help you that much in regards to setting rosters, it does tell you a lot about those teams which might rest up players because they are about to play an epic amount of games in a row. For example, who has the most amount of 1 rest days? The Lakers (no surprises there) and Suns, each with 38. This is compensated for the fact that they both only have 15 2/3+ day rest breaks. Compare this to the Bucks who only have 22 single day breaks, but more than make up for this with 24 2/3+ day breaks. The major factor here is TV scheduling I feel. But this is pretty important stuff if you are into your hardcore fantasy. You can also break it down by opponent team breaks for charting out how strong the opposition will be.
I’m sure a lot more (free) schedulers will pop up over time. When I stumble across them, I’ll try and remember to link to them so you can choose the one you want to use.
Also, please note. Many websites will offer you their best attempt at a ‘scheduler’ help tool for some small price. But there will be a heap of free stuff, just as good (if not better) available from fantasy hoops sites around so don’t fret and have a little patience while people put them all together. As some examples, GMTR did an amazing google docs of the 2009-10 schedule last year which was nice and simple to bookmark and check while Basketball Free for All had a top shelf downloadable excel spreadsheet which blew my mind and was a bit more detailed (but not as easy to quickly check).
Two Man Mock Draft – Round 10
Round 10. Some would say, the most pivotal round of the draft. You can spot those people a long way away. Their first nine picks sucked. For the rest of us, this is a chance to take some chances or shore up support in one or two categories with some specialist players who can make a bit of an impact. It is also where you will see most ‘sleeper’ candidates start being nabbed (although obviously this can occur earlier as well). The things I look for at this stage in the draft? Potential and the ‘comeback season’ from players who might have slipped off the radar but have done well in the past. I was excited by the new visuals in Round 9. I was also pleased to see the poll results at this stage (I promise I have only voted once Jason). Rashard Lewis? Your dead to me mate. Looks like Luol Deng is the man for the 6th round after all. Make sure you go over and check it out. And another thing. Rounds 1-8 can be found here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here. In order.
109. Darren Collison (D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B. Jennings, J. Salmons, M. Okur, B. Diaw): You might be worried Collison isn’t going to play enough minute to justify a 10th round pick and you might be proven right at the end of the season. But Colliwobbly has upside in two distinct ways. He is backing up Chris Paul, who after last season obviously has a question mark over his head with regards to longevity and more importantly, he is going to be used as part of a three man rotation (Paul and Thornton) at the guard. Mo Pete has left town leaving these three amigos to run New Orleans. Their big men aren’t good enough to command attention (sorry David West, you just don’t cut it in my books) so it’ll be up to these little guys to make it work. Collison showed he can still make things happen in his 39 games as a sub, slashing to the basketball. I expect around 26-28 minutes per game over the course of the season, perhaps even more. This is good enough for 10-12 points and approximately 5-6 assists. A little pricey for the 10th round but as soon as Chris Paul sneezes, his value will sky rocket.
110. Channing Frye (G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall, C. Butler, E. Turner, E. Brand): Frye has taken a bit of a hit in fantasy circles this season for some unbeknown reason. He still plays with Steve Nash. There are no major additions to the Suns front court to replace Amar’e (if anyone pipes up name Hakim Warrick, I will personally hunt you down). Sure, he went pretty cold in the playoffs last season but who really cares? In the regular season he was good enough for 2+ threes, 11 and 5. Nothing bad there. I see pretty much the same this season, except probably about 1.6 threes instead. He nearly throws in a bonus steal (.9) and block (.8) every game as well. This team is a strange mix of defensive monsters (Howard, Wallace) with pure offense (Blatche, Bulter, Frye). I’d be pretty pumped heading into the season with this team (except you Caron Bulter – you are forever in the bad books).
111. Terrence Williams (D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge, T. Ariza, A. Miller, M. Miller): I wanted to take Brad Miller here, just for a hat-trick, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. There is a bit of a log jam at the SG/SF spot in New Jersey after they decided to spend their money this summer on ‘free’ agents instead of the big fish. Courtney Lee, Morrow, Outlaw and even Jordan Farmar will clog up minutes here. But T-Will is the bomb diggy and true talent always shines through. He is a triple-double threat and can bring the house down if he so chooses. Just because he didn’t listen to Kiki V. doesn’t mean you should exclude him from your fantasy thoughts. New coach Avery Johnson don’t take no crap and Williams will ship up and begin to dominate this season. Look for a major leap across all categories. In April, Williams averaged 14/7/6. I wouldn’t expect those gaudy numbers for a season, but it shows promise and possibility.
112. Jose Calderon (S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett, E. Gordon, C. Landry, A. Harrington): This team needed another point guard and Calderon is the man for it. Listen, I’ve met Jarrett Jack, and while he is a nice guy who poses for photographs better than any other basketball I’ve met, he can’t cut the mustard in Toronto. He is not a starting quality point guard. On the other hand, Calderon is. Even in only 26 minutes per night last season, the Big Cheese managed 10 points, 6 assists and one three pointer. He shoots the ball amazingly well from the field (48% last season) and can dominate the court at will. That’s what will happen in the worst case scenario. The best part? There is a good chance he will get traded. The bad part? No-one knows where. This instability is not good but then again, that’s why this is pick #112 and not #25 like last season.
113. Greg Oden (D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin, J. Nelson, R. Stuckey, J.R. Smith): When I see pictures of Greg Oden (no, not those pictures), I start humming the intro track on Jay-Z’s Blueprint, “the ruler’s back”. With Oden, I feel like I am waiting for the inevitable… not another knee injury or stress fracture, but the 14/12/2 that I know is just around the corner when he can work out how not to foul. Heck, he doesn’t even have to do anything except stand on the court to effect the game, but most of the time, as witnessed by his 86 fouls per 36 minutes, he can’t even manage that. Regardless. This is the season. This is the one. Everything comes together. The Blazers become relevant again. I’m excited. Plus, Oden fits this team like Stockton fitted Malone. The mix of small men, smaller men and Brook Lopez really needed a bit of Oden grunt. Just like it took Xena Warriors Princess 3 seasons to really get off the ground, Oden is ready to deliver in the 4th.
114. Kelenna Azubuike (P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson, J. Holiday, R. Hibbert): Unlike last round I picked, this round my heart is really invested. I think Oden has me a little too excited. Azubuike? Apart from the best name in the NBA (sorry Dwyane), Azubuike has a legit shot at being 1-1-1 (three/steal/block) talent in the 10th round. You throw in 10 points, 5 boards and pretty impressive FG% and you have a winner. With the attention focused nearly universally on Amar’e, the 2 and 3 men for the Knicks are going to run riot up and down that court as puppet master Mike presses the ‘faster’ button repeatedly. In 2008-09, his last major injury free year, KA averaged 14/5 for a Golden State despite having to contend with noted black holes (Jackson, S) for the ball. This year is gravy compared to that. 1-1-1 is really what this team needs as the scoring and boards are there, but the little intangibles still make up 3 categories every week. There are still a few issues here, but nothing a good 11th round pick can’t fix.
115. Lamar Odom (D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford, P. Millsap, T. Parker, R. Lopez): It’s pretty hard to have a favorite Laker but if someone held a gun to my head, I would chose Lamar. Big, dopey looking, knows that he can’t have a good Khardashian so he settles for a mediocre one. That’s my type of multiple NBA champion right there. And did you know he loves candy? Odom might not produce at first, in fact you can probably count on him not producing, but eventually he’ll find his groove and when Andrew Bynum gets injured, he’ll have a field day. Odom played in all 82 games last season, clocking up nearly 10/10 every night (10.8/9.8) as well as 3 assists, .7 threes, .9 steals and .7 blocks. Not bad for a dude who doesn’t really give a rat’s ass about anything. The only reason he went to this team was his ability to build on already established strengths. Granger/Smith/Nene/Millsap are all steal/block+ type of guys and Odom only helps that, along with some pretty decent points and boards. This team looks more scary everytime I check it out. Sure, the owner will be scouring the waivers for signs of assists as soon as PG’s start dropping, but those things tend to work themselves out in the end. Can I quickly say as well, I love the Robin Lopez pick. He is going to tear it up this year.
116. Greg Monroe (K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola, R. Allen, L. Barbosa, C. Maggette): After three players in a row who could fit the various types of shooting guard mould, I needed to get some size back into this team. Munroe, the #7 pick in this years draft, is a snug fit. He has some of the sweetest hands in the post you are likely to see. As passing big men go, there might not be a better one by the end of the season (even including Darko Milicic doing his best Chris Webber impression). If the Pistons are serious about starting a-fresh (which might not be the case, Joe Dumars has been lacking a lot of seriousness since about 2007) then Monroe will walk into a starting spot. This should be the case. But it might not be. At Summer League, he struggled to assert himself in the post and settled for too many outside looks. He has to get inside, get dirty and play some ball, like he did for Georgetown. Only then will his talents rise through the murky waters of 3rd grade fantasy Centers and into our hearts. Hopefully this happens sooner rather than later. Please note: The Pistons are probably the worst team for fantasy prospects this season. If Rodney Stuckey is your best player, you ain’t getting it done.
117. Wilson Chandler (D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley, V. Carter, Y. Ming, D. Cousins): Chandler would have gone a lot higher if it wasn’t for those pesky Golden State players coming to the party. He showed promise last season as a semi-talented swing man who could score when the game was free flowing and he had ample opportunity. His near 48% from the field looks like a bit of an aberration but he should still present this type of value this coming season. He is a New York Knick who probably doesn’t excite that many people this season after the slight disappoint of past campaigns for fantasy owners. I don’t see 35 minutes in the equation either. He gives this team some more punch and doesn’t hurt any categories, which can be a bit of an issue with certain high round picks.
118. Samuel Dalembert (C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams, C. Kaman, G. Arenas, A. Bynum, A. Kirilenko): I notice a bit of a trend here. I’ve taken Bosh, Kaman, Bynum and now Dalembert. If anything else, at least this team will know how to rebound. I wasn’t very high on Sammy D as soon as the Kings nabbed DeMarcus Cousins in the draft. But over time, I think I have come around a little. He is an established player who showed real flashes of solid basketball last year. He should have no worries seeing off the smaller Jason Thomson for minutes. He hasn’t missed a game in 3 seasons and despite playing a smaller role for the Sixer’s last season, that was because they were crap and the head coach was a nut job. Dalembert is never going to give you lots of points, but his boards and blocks are substantial and something you won’t find from many others at this point in proceedings. With Cousins playing down low with him, it might even open up some doors for extra stat padding. Much like Dalembert, at first I wasn’t too hot on this team, but I really like the last four picks and I think there is some solid structure and direction happening here which is always a good thing for fantasy teams.
119. Jonny Flynn (L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng, R. Lewis, T. Splitter, B. Gordon): Even if LBJ does average near double-digit assists, this team still needs a little but of love in that department. Flynn is nearly the last point guard who was a starter last season still left on the board. He didn’t do much to earn this spot, instead sort of falling into it. In fact, he only averaged 4.4 assists per game. Things should be a bit better this season with Luke Ridnour backing him up instead of Ramon Sessions. If he doesn’t nudge past 5+ per game, there is something wrong. Like the majority of sophomore point guards, he should lift his minutes per game, alongside his scoring and assists while shooting a better FG% (41.7 last season, yuck) and less turnovers (2.9 in only 29 minutes). Flynn is not going to set the world on fire at any point soon but he is handy to fill in some gaps late in the draft. 5+ assists per game is still 18-20 per week which will more often than not be the difference at the end of the week. This team is stacked in many other areas (boards, points, blocks, threes) so this doesn’t hurt in the slightest.
120. Serge Ibaka (K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry, M. Thornton, T. Thomas, Ge. Hill): I know I probably shouldn’t have. But gosh darnit, I really wanted to. Air Congo as the Thunder faithful love to call him managed to play 18 minutes per game in his rookie campaign but his playoff performances won him many plaudits which should transform into increased minutes. This is a pure roll of the dice pick. I really don’t know if he will be able to produce substantial value at this stage but the potential is all there. In those 18 minutes per game, he managed 1.3 blocks and 5.4 boards. Give him an extra 7 minutes a game and he is a legit force to be reckoned with in the right team. Furthermore, this is a little bit of insurance against Camby and Thomas who don’t have the best track records when it comes to playing all the games of the season.
So we come to the end of Round 10. A look below shows the teams in their latest new uniforms. While some people are probably shaking their heads at some of these picks, please remember this isn’t a ‘pick the best available player list’ but a way to form teams which would look more like real fantasy teams, each with their own unique styles and each with their flaws which are inevitable at some point in a draft of 156 players. Look out for the last three rounds at fBasketballBlog and around here in the near future.
Team Delicious: K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry, M. Thornton, T. Thomas, Ge. Hill, S. Ibaka
Team Bulls 2.0: L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng, R. Lewis, T. Splitter, B. Gordon, J. Flynn
Team Bang Bang: C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams, C. Kaman, G. Arenas, A. Bynum, A. Kirilenko, S. Dalembert
Team Ipecac: D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley, V. Carter, Y. Ming, D. Cousins, W. Chandler
Team 5: K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola, R. Allen, L. Barbosa, C. Maggette, G. Monroe
Team Stolen Block Party: D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford, P. Millsap, T. Parker, R. Lopez, L. Odom
Team 7: P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson, J. Holiday, R. Hibbert, K. Azubuike
Team Big Time: D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin, J. Nelson, R. Stuckey, J.R. Smith, G. Oden
Team Frail: S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett, E. Gordon, C. Landry, A. Harrington, J. Calderon
Team Dope: D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge, T. Ariza, A. Miller, M. Miller, T. Williams
Team Future: G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall, C. Butler, E. Turner, E. Brand, C. Frye
Team Know Your Limits: D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B. Jennings, J. Salmons, M. Okur, B. Diaw, D. Collison
Overrated In a Napoleon Dynamite kind of way: Fantasy Basketball at it’s most awkward
Whats the most overrated film you have ever seen? It might have actually been a decent film, but despite the best efforts of your friends to convince you otherwise, you just don’t think it’s the next To Kill A Mockingbird (the actual greatest film of all time). For me, it has to be Napoleon Dynamite. Funny? Yes. Hilarious? No. And what’s with all the stupid red indie t-shirts? Get bent Napoleon Dynamite. Anyway, to try and draw a comparison, these are just a few players who I think will be overrated in the upcoming season.
Let me make it clear before I begin. They don’t suck. Some will even get drafted pretty early. Just I think, personally, many of them will go way before their time because of their name, past achievements or the inevitable hype machine which surrounds certain players.
Stephen Jackson: I hear your cries. He’s so awesome. No-one else at the Bobcats knows how to shoot. Ray Felton has left which will boost his assist totals. I understand all this. But here are the underlying foundations of the S-Jax bandwagon. The Bobcats are the most offensively challenged NBA team. Even though they might score more points than other teams at times, this is purely by fluke. With this new found offensive responsbility will come a drop in FG% (from 42.3%, if that’s even possible), an increase in turnovers (hello 4+ per game to lead the league) and more worries about moodiness than any manager can handle. There is a real possibility he will put up 20/5/5, but for that chance, you will have to snap him up in the third round. The risk? He ends up averaging 17/4/4 with two category killers. Yuck. Overrated factor: The Matrix Reloaded.
Darko Milicic: There has been a lot of talk about Milicic recently thanks to his new contract. TrueHoop has a bet and HP wrote one of my favorite articles of the off-season about him. All of this equals predictions verging on the range of stupid. I’ll lay this one on you. My housemate (let’s call him LITTOGA – love in the time of Gilbert Arenas) is a pretty big fantasy fan. He freely admits he hasn’t been following the off-season that strongly but laid down the claim that Darko could average 4+ assists per game this season. 4!!!! This was later revised to 3 after a little thought. Let’s check out the facts. The T’Wolves offense is as much of a triangle as David Khan’s forehead. Milicic has never averaged more than 1.8 assists per game (this was last season in 24 games with Minny). Darko has played for 5 teams in 5 seasons. I’ll accept that he could perhaps have his best season ever, say 10 points, 8 boards, 1.5 blocks, 2 assists but this still isn’t good enough to crack the majority of fantasy leagues before the 12th round. Lesson: Trust the past. Overrated factor: John Mayer’s Fourth Studio album (no-one actually rates it at all, just your weirdo housemate. True story.)
John Wall: There will be disagreement here. However wait until you start playing on the shiny Yahoo mock draft toy and see Wall’s name start coming off in the mid-fourth round in September and watch it creep up to the third by late October. It’s going to happen. And sure, you can go ahead and pick him there if you like watching your money disappear late at nights in dark casino’s, but the fact is, he is an untested point guard in a strange back court situation. It’ll be like having the good jesus and bad jesus sitting on your shoulders with Hinrich and Arenas. Hinrich looks smart, says the right things, plays the right part and tries to teach while Arenas seems to be having all the fun, pulling all the ladies and getting all the laughs. If I was an impressionable 19 year old kid, I know what I’d be doing and it doesn’t involve listening to classical music post-game with the big K-dog. Wall will be a talented PG this season, but if you even think of taking him before 2nd tier picks like Earl Baron Davis, Derrick Rose or even my boy Ray Felton, your dreaming sunshine. Overrated factor: Sarah Palin, circa July 2008.
Hedo Turkoglu: The big Turk has escaped the rotten land of Canada for the more yellow pastures of Arizona and everyone thinks it’s a great move! More minutes, more smiling, more Steve Nash. It’s all good. But it’s only a certain amount of good if you get my drift. Remember, this is the same Hedo who liked to dance up a storm the night before games in Toronto and once so utterly confused people with his ‘ball’ speech for no apparent reason. Anyway, more factual evidence is required I feel. Forget 2008-09 (16/5/5, 1.7 treys) and start thinking about 2010-11 (14/6/4 with 1.2 treys). Sure, the difference isn’t amazing but it’s enough to not start thinking about the big bad Turk until a bit later than the jerk who just took him in the 4th round. Overrated factor: Heineken beer.
Manu Ginobili: Yeah, I’m look at you Jason. Don’t shake your head silently at your computer screen. Manu is a freak. The things he does on the Spurs when no-one else wants to do it is incredible. The problem is, sometimes Timmy D and Tony P do show up, and then he sort of cruises through games in 2nd gear. Last season was actually very productive for Manu. 16/4/5 with nearly 2 treys, wicked FT% and 1.4 steals. That’s delicious in 28 minutes a night. However it’s not third round delicious especially when you consider he still missed 7 games but that was somehow his lowest since 2003-04. Injuries, upcoming talent (George Hill, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair) all mean less touches for old dudes and the slow but inevitable transformation of the San Antonio Spurs. I would still be a Manu taker, but only in the mid-late 4th round and only if your team desperately needs assists/treys from a 2 guard spot. Overrated factor: The American Soccer Team (a draw with England isn’t anything to celebrate just quietly)
Monta Ellis: Here is where the fun begins. Monta is my prediction for one of the biggest drop offs in individual output this season. The Warriors are now firmly Stephen Curry’s team. Monta will see as much ball as Curry allows. Curry’s individual brilliance will be first option, closely followed by David Lee in the front court with a distant Monta number three on the pecking order. This isn’t necessarily a bad spot to be when your at the Warriors for fantasy production, but Mr Moped is going to seriously struggle to put up 25 points per game this season. 20 points? Sure. More than 5 assists? Never again. 3.8 turnovers? He will probably still manage even without the ball handling duties. You can bank the steals and an ever increasing three point production, but as a 2nd round pick? This scares the shit out of me. Overrated factor: Tony Romo, circa August every year.
I’ve got another 4 names sitting just below, but I might save them for a slow news day next week. If anyone can guess all 4 though, you can have a cookie. Hints: One brash young upstart, one overpaid 3 point camper, only one Atlanta Hawk (that’s a surprise) and one Team USA player who turns 86 at some point this season.
Other stuff….
GiveMeTheRock does the Charlotte Bobcats (also their latest player rankings)
Breaking down the Miami Heat, Guns N’ Roses Style over at FantasyBasketballDaily
The last round of Damn Lies and Statistics mock draft
This is a pretty interesting topic over at Matt Buser’s forum. First round H2H rankings. Some interesting speculation to say the least. Favorite quote to date? “Dwight Howard is the most overrated fantasy player of all time imo.”
Speaking of Mr Buser, an updated Yahoo Big Board
Some links amongst other things
I don’t have much else to say after that mock draft post below (keep scrolling…) but I have had a pretty ineffective day studying which has a very causative relationship to the amount of fantasy basketball stuff I read.
Anyway, it looks like Hardwoord Paroxysm has got itself a new fantasy analyst, if that is the right term, which it isn’t. Allen Law, aka Djturtleface from FreeDarko fame, has a new column which promises to be weekly, and more importantly, a bit of a different look at fantasy teams. Reading his dot points at the bottom, I’m pretty excited to follow this. Here is the first post.
TalesOf9Cats has a new interview up, this time with Jason from fBasketballBlog and the DIME magazine fantasy specialist. It’s engaging and has some pretty interesting stuff. I really like the Q&A format. It’s something original and gives good insight into how others think, together with a dose of personality, which can often be missing in fantasy basketball talk. Here is the interview.
This is the greatest fantasy trophy in the world. Pity about the price but if you are super serious, check it out.
There are many ‘untruths’ about fantasy basketball. This is one of them, talking about there being no bad draft position in fantasy basketball. Seriously, if you argument is that you will voluntarily take draft spot #12, you are a dick. Plain and simple. This up coming season for instance, I would LOVE a top 3 pick. After that, I would prefer a 10-12 pick, because stuff dealing with working out where to pick Dirk/Kobe/Wade/Granger etc. Plus, I know I can still get Amar’e or Curry at #10 and that’s all that matters.
Damn Lies and Statistics have moved onto the 9th round of their 4 man mock draft. There are some interesting decisions (remembering it’s roto). I like Oden, Hibbert and Thomas, but I am very wary of Calderon and JaVale McGee. I mean, c’mon man, McGee?? I saw that kid in the flesh last season and he looked like he would struggle in a game of pick up. Hopefully he is improved and the starting spot at the Wizards gives him fantasy value but I like my 9th round centers with a bit more meat on them. Note: they still haven’t picked Vince Carter. A sign of the future I feel.
Finally, for those of you into podcasts. I know most people know of The Disciples of Clyde and don’t they need to help getting more listens, but it’s seriously one of the best out there for casual and hardcore NBA fans. It’s fun, easy to comprehend and the ability to connect with ‘regular fans’ is amazing. I really enjoy it. Plus, the music is wicked good. Here is the latest episode (#101).
Two Man Mock Draft – Round 8
My last round was a mixed bag of emotions for Jason over at fBasketballBlog. Thanks for nothing Michael Beasley and Luol Deng. To catch up, here is Round Seven and you can scroll down a bit for past rounds.
At this point, I’ll also point out what I think have been some of the better picks so far and some of the surprising aspects to date. Jameer Nelson (#80) in the last round could turn out to be a real steal. Carter is only getting to be more useless and if Nelson can even produce 80% of his steller 2008-09 season, he’ll be a worthy player this season. I loved Ray Felton (#53) in the 5th. I think this is the perfect spot for him, as if you wait any longer, you will definitely lose him. It’s not just the D’Antoni affect either. He had so much promise coming into the league and this should be his opportunity to really showcase his entire skill set. A few surprises? Manu Ginobili in the 3rd round kind of freaked me out, but I can see how it could work with a massive front court of Wallace/Howard if everything goes right. I surprised myself by waiting on Luol Deng till the very end of the 6th round as I love his game and think the addition of C-Booz might boost things for him. But maybe I’m just tripping. Notable players still on the board after 84 picks (but perhaps not for long): Tony Parker and Carl Landry, both proven fantasy plugs for the middle rounds in recent seasons. I’ll have some more commentary after Round 13.
This is what happens when you draft Gilbert Arenas. There is a special place on the internet reserved for these people. I hope I never stumble across it.
To mix things up, I’ll try and make this round a bit safer because I have been hurling down a mountain on one ski in the past couple of rounds. Not to say I won’t do it again, just this round seems like a good time to consolidate what is good and fill in gaps with safer options before the completely mind boggling picks of the late rounds occur.
85. Memo Okur (D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B. Jennings, J. Salmons): Some people would say this is a risky pick because of past health issues (he has missed 29 games over the past three seasons) but I feel it is safe because you know EXACTLY what you are going to get and can therefore plan around this. The floor for Okur is good percentages, 13/7 with 1+ three. It’s like a glove with this team. Nash, Jennings and Jackson have the small things covered and there seems to be a bit of a glut of smalls around the 105th pick mark, so we can cover more there. With Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson both undersized, the Jazz are going to rely on Okur even more than times gone by. This group of players might not be the most exciting to grace the floor, but as a collective unit, you could do a lot worse (listen up team four, we’ll get to you later).
86. Evan Turner (G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall, C. Butler): This was a really hard pick. I was looking for a pure scorer type of player. Here is a tip – get your scoring before the 8th round. While the three existing bigs on this team are going to crush opponents, there is a derth of scoring options and when you get to the 8th, there isn’t much left. I’m not sold on Turner, but he was better than the other options in my opinion. He lit up the college scene last year and has a big body which will help with his adjustment to the NBA. Andre Iguodala does him no help in fantasy terms, either does the as yet undrafted Jrue Holiday/Lou Williams guard combo. But if Turner can show he is the best player out of these guys (and he is), he will have little trouble demanding the ball when required… which will be all the time. This team is now an odd mix of super talented big guys while gambling on the small guys to pull their weight (Manu, Wall, Turner). I’d be worried if I were the owner, which I am in a strange kind of non-committed kind of way.
87. Andre Miller (D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge, T. Ariza): It pains me to lump Miller in with this team of cool cats. 34 years old, playing for the most boring franchise in the league, Miller is the antithesis of cool. But. He hasn’t missed a game in 3 seasons. This team needed another point guard (and it wasn’t going to be Tony Parker). He gets the rack and beefs up the overall strength of the team. Ariza was a great pick up for steals and threes (which Miller lacks both of relative to other point guards) and they will complement each other. It’s a good idea in the later rounds of the drafts to ‘pair-up’ picks to cover more bases. Despite the glut of guards at Portland, I don’t see his minutes dropping below 30/game and this seems to be about the right spot for his talents.
88. Carl Landry (S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett, E. Gordon): I worry a lot about Duncan and Bogut. Then I keep reading and KG slaps me in the face. Considering I drafted two of those three, this pick is about righting that injury risk. Landry might not be exciting. He definitely isn’t going to do anything unexpected. The best we can hope for on a pretty loaded Kings front court is approximately 13-14 points, 6 boards and a few steals all mixed together with some very efficient shooting percentages. It’s pretty easy to ignore stats like those, but at this stage of the draft, I feel he is the safest option left on the board for his position because he has already shown his game. Even if DeMarcus Cousins becomes a 20/10 monster (which I highly doubt), Landry will still be chipping away and will even benefit from the extra space on the floor which he opens up. After all that, I think I have talked myself into this team being one of the juiciest to date.
89. Rodney Stuckey (D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin, J. Nelson): Let it be known I feel dirty typing Rodney Stuckey if it is anywhere near a figure with only two digits. However I’m trying my heart out to play it nice and safe here and he is the top ranked player still available. It does make back-to-back point guards but at least they are proven in some sense of the word. There was once a time when Stuckey was going to be the next big thing. The 2008 playoffs were a long time ago though (in fantasy time) and he is now a definite 3rd tier point guard. His 40% from the field is mind blowing bad and it really hurts you because of the sheer amount of attempts per game he jacks (15 last season). He has shown the ability to score though and is your typical 15/5 with extra steals type of guard which I think fantasy players should normally steer clear of. In this case, D-Will and Nelson really did need some extra assistance and the big guys have things covered in most areas. I’m not giving myself good marks for this pick, but there is still a flash of potential that Stuckey can get things together and make some kind of mark this season. The Pistons need a leader now that Rip Hamilton has been reduced to bench duty and with some new young tall timber coming in, there is the chance of a new start in Detroit.
90. Jrue Holiday (P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson): The last three picks for this team have really boosted the scoring potential. The need for another point guard was pretty prominent as even Rondo can’t do it all. I am wary of Holiday because of the log-jam he is at thanks to Lou Williams. It must also be hard playing with Iguodala who likes to think of himself as some kind of undersized point-forward at times but as he grows in his sophomore campaign, I like his chances of really making a run at some good facilitation work in Philly. Per-36 minutes he averaged a touch under 6 assists per game last season and has good enough long distance shot to do some damage. It remains to be seen what happens to the Sixer’s back court but he should play a very important part going forward. This team is ready to really wrack up the steals and threes and if we can build on blocks heading down the straight, things are very positive.
91. Tony Parker (D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford, P. Millsap): I held out as long as I could (can you see the inbuilt bias against point guards yet?). Parker smells like trouble this season but at #91 you are severely minimizing the risk you have just taken on. As George Hill grows, Parker drops off. He played 56 games last season but more importantly, only just clocked 30 minutes per game. This meant this assists dropped by 1.2 and his scoring by 6 points. None of this is good but we are looking at it through a lens tainted by his freakish play in the earlier stages of his career. 5+ assists per game is still very solid at this stage of the draft and there is the guarantee that he plays at worse 28+ minutes. Hopefully this is enough for owners. In terms of this team, it was either go small here or totally forget about assists and steals. I nearly did that but Rose, Crawford and even Granger/Smith would be losing too much relative value. You would think steals/blocks/boards and threes are all solid without Parker, whose job is to bump up the assists and get the team over the line with 15 points per game.
92. Leandro Barbosa (K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola, R. Allen): The run of point guards was getting too much for me to handle. Barbosa has been one of my favorite players and it’s a massive shame that he was injured last season and then traded. Luckily enough, the Raptors play a very up tempo style of basketball and someone has build stats with all those possessions. In his last full season, he averaged 15+ points and 2+ threes. While a tad similar to Ray Allen in pure statistical output (at his best), I have high hopes that he will push up his assists and steals as well at the Raptors. It need not be by much, but another 2.5 assists and 1+ steals on this team doesn’t hurt anyway. This is the way to built a small ball team without any standout point guard. It might not be very text book, but I really dig it. Bryant/Ellis/Felton make up a very solid core of guards which are well complemented by Allen and Barbosa who push up the efficiency and knock down shots. Some might consider this a reach as Barbosa might fall a fair bit further but I’m a big believer in taking what you want regardless of others because you never know what will be available to you at the next pick.
93. Yao Ming (D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley, V. Carter): When Jason calls out for a center, I like to think I have the right goods to bring to this party. Mr Ming may not be second round material these days but according to recent reports he is on the road to recovery and should be fighting fit at first day of training camp. In case you have forgotten, here is Yao’s stat line from the 2006-07 season: 25/9.4/2 blocks, 52%-86%. Yummy. For all those people groaning into their keyboards, I realise this is not ever going to happen again. But here is something you can bank. 16 points, 8.5 boards and 1.5 blocks. Yeah, I said it. All those people picking up DeMarcus Cousins while the cross their fingers that he gets anywhere near those numbers? Yeah they crazy. I know those numbers come with a MASSIVE question mark about health and stress fractures, but at this stage this team had little option. They don’t have anyone who can block. They don’t have someone who will threaten 10+ boards on a nightly basis. Now they have both of these things. And if it all goes south? They can sell team name jerseys on their blog to China FTW.
94. Andrew Bynum (C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams, C. Kaman, G. Arenas): Speaking of big guys who love spending time on the pine, welcome Andrew Bynum! Lets run through the good things first. Last season he played 65 games, which was nearly as many as the previous two combined. He played 30 minutes a night. He played through pain (Kobe has been teaching him tricks, he played all 15 games for the Lakers last December and while he only logged 27 minutes per night average, it’s a great sign he toughed it out). He averaged career highs in points (15), FT% (74%) and FGA (10.6). This is all great news. Now for the bad. He is still playing with Gasol and Odom who are used heavily to protect Bynum from himself. Even when he does string together a bunch of games, you never feel safe when he is occupying your center spot. His turnovers are rising (1.8 last season) and his boards (8.3 last season) aren’t rising as expected. He also has this knack for putting in monster games and following them up with absolute crud. He really should be averaging more blocks and a high FG% but this isn’t the end of the world. Like Yao, but to a lesser extent, there is risk associated with this pick but you have to remember, players do get over injuries sometimes. Who predicted Andrew Bogut last season for instance? For this team, he gives them grunt in the middle with those extra boards and blocks, which Chris Bosh might be too flaky to count on.
95. Tiago Splitter (L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng, R. Lewis): Any team with LBJ on it doesn’t need to be sensible in the 8th round. These are where the advantages of having a top 3 pick really start bearing fruit. Because James does so much with the ball (assists, boards, points), he is like having this awesome combo guard-forward who you don’t need to compensate for in the late rounds. This team is pimping at the moment. They are rock solid across nearly every category. That’s why it’s time to start picking the cherries which aren’t quite ripe yet, but will age flawlessly in your fridge. Splitter was the MVP of the Spanish league last season. According to an April installment of my favorite odd-ball NBA post, ShamSport’s ‘Where are they now’, Splitter averaged 16.4 points and 7 boards while playing only 27 minutes in the Spanish League with whoppingly (I know this isn’t a real word) good percentages (60-79). Now, I don’t know about you, but this sounds like my kind of Center. He immediately slots into starting Center at the Spurs thanks to his experience in Europe and he starts helping everyone around him. With Duncan at PF, he will have opportunity galore to get easy looks under the basket. I’m drooling just thinking about it and he might even make the Spurs watchable on the TV. He turns this team into an above-average big man unit to a beastly one which will crush opponents on the boards while his percentages will shore up any mishaps from Mr Deng or Mr Roy (both my picks). [Friendly sidenote which in no way is meant to offend: I disagree with Jason about the relative worth and end of season statistical output of Lewis over Deng. This season could be known in Chi-town forever more as Ding Dong Deng if my dreams of regular smack downs come to reality. Also, Rashard Lewis is a hack. End of argument.]
96. Tyrus Thomas (K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry, M. Thornton): My man crush on Tyrus continues. As this is my favorite team in the mock, I kind of wanted to cheat and put Splitter here for the sake of making my own personal team, but I felt that was definitely defeating the purpose of a two man mock draft. Instead, I went with the enigma that is Thomas. Chicago was a cruel place for young Tyrus growing up. So many expectations were placed on his brittle shoulders. In short bursts, he would demonstrate his ability but this just frustrated fans and fantasy owners even more so when he failed to show up for the majority of his games (not literally of course). But the Bobcats are a whole new ball game. They are defensive specialists who love to slow the ball down. Even playing only 21 minutes per game while carrying an injury, Thomas managed 10 points, 6 boards, 1.5 blocks and nearly 1 steal per game. Imagine if he actually plays 30 minutes a game? Plus, as a bonus, you get him at extremely great value because he has pissed off so many other owners that they won’t touch him. Yahoo has him penciled in as their starting PF. Regardless of what actually happens, it will be a real adventure peeking through your fingers to glimpse at box scores when he is involved. This team is stacked with scorers, has thrown away assists and filled with promise. This is my dream team. Jason, don’t stuff it up =)
And with that, I’m spent. A re-cap below. I have started naming teams, I hope nobody minds. I know, they are childish but every team should have a name. Feel free to suggest away and I’ll change them accordingly.
Team Delicious: K. Durant, T. Evans, A. Horford, P. Pierce, M. Camby, J. Terry, M. Thornton, T. Thomas
Team 2: L. James, B. Roy, C. Billups, J. Noah, K. Love, L. Deng, R. Lewis, T. Splitter
Team Bang Bang: C. Paul, C. Bosh, J. Johnson, R. Gay, M. Williams, C. Kaman, G. Arenas, A. Bynum
Team 4: D. Nowitzki, J. Kidd, A. Iguodala, A. Jamison, A. Brooks, M. Beasley, V. Carter, Y. Ming
Team 5: K. Bryant, A. Jefferson, M. Ellis, M. Gasol, R. Felton, L. Scola, R. Allen, L. Barbosa
Team 6: D. Granger, J. Smith, N. Hilario, D. Rose, J. Richardson, J. Crawford, P. Millsap, T. Parker
Team 7: P. Gasol, R. Rondo, T. Murphy, Z. Randolph, K. Martin, O.J. Mayo, J.J. Hickson, J. Holiday
Team 8: D. Williams, B. Lopez, D. West, D. Gallinari, H. Turkoglu, B. Griffin, J. Nelson, R. Stuckey
Team Frail: S. Curry, C. Anthony, T. Duncan, A. Bogut, D. Harris, K. Garnett, E. Gordon, C. Landry
Team Dope: D. Wade, A. Stoudemire, A. Bargnani, B. Davis, A. Randolph, L. Aldridge, T. Ariza, A. Miller
Team Future: G. Wallace, D. Howard, M. Ginobili, R. Westbrook, A. Blatche, J. Wall, C. Butler, E. Turner
Team 12: D. Lee, S. Nash, C. Boozer, S. Jackson, J. Green, B. Jennings, J. Salmons, M. Okur
The Case For, The Case Against: Free Throw Dumping In Round Two
Dumping FT% in the 2nd round
Over at Damn Lies and Statistics, they are having a 4 man expert mock draft (warning: roto style, may induce sleep). In their look at Round Two, a real trend sticks out. People are willing to draft FT% killers. In that specific post, they include Dwight, J Smoove, Rondo and Iguodala. Tyreke Evans might pop up as well. Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m all for drafting these players in the 2nd round (actually, this is a lie but I like to at least try and start out even handed), but this is just a look at some of the underlying reasons why people will make these decisions. Of course, try and keep in mind that in H2H leagues, it is widely assumed that it’s OK to dump a category (or two if your brave) because of the strictly mono e mono aspect relative to roto leagues.
What are some of the factors towards this trend? Well, we can start with the fact that once you get past round 1 in nba drafts, every player is going to have some deficiencies. Jason Kidd doesn’t score, Steve Nash doesn’t defend, Brandon Roy doesn’t play 82 games (this one is worse). So it’s OK that they are no good at FT%? Not quite.
The percentage categories in fantasy basketball are pretty special. While the others (points, boards, threes, blocks, steals, assists, turnovers) are all purely based on empirical totals, it is impossible go to backwards once you have accrued stats in these categories (apart from turnovers, where going forwards is going backwards, but that is a discussion for another day). With percentages, one bad day from your star can literally ruin the entire week. Think about when Kevin Durant shoots 6 from 25, instead of an average 9 from 19 performance. Those 19 missed shots in theoretical game one have created such a gulf that unless the rest of your team is made up of Gasol brothers, you can nearly kiss goodbye to the category for the week. While his FG% will average out over the course of a season, H2H is week to week, which doesn’t help you.
With FT%, this is even more important due to the disparity between players who take a large volume of free throws. While a good fantasy players who shoot 55% from the field might make 8-10 baskets a game, good players who shoot 48% will generally take a higher number. With free throws, this doesn’t occur. Let’s look at the top 5 field goal attempts vs. the top 5 free throw attempts from 2009-10.
Field Goal Attempts: Durant (794), James (768), Nowitzki (720), Wade (719), Bryant (716). Highest: James .503 – Lowest: Bryant .456
Free Throw Attempts: Durant (840), Howard (816), James (773), Wade (702), Stoudemire (632). Highest: Durant .900 – Lowest: Howard .592
Of qualified players, there are only 38 players between James and Bryant for field goal shooting while there are 129 players between Durant and Howard (and 73 between Durant and Amar’e).
So what you may ask? It’s extremely hard to overcome a bad free throw shooter relative to other categories. Other players can make up gaps from your best players in other categories, but free throws is different. Basically, the rule is that the player must have other mind blowing stats to overcome this big hole in their game.
That’s where the other side of the debate comes into it’s own. Some of these players can dominate so thoroughly in other categories that it doesn’t make one iota of difference if you lose free throws by 30% every week. Dwight Howard is one of those players. League leading in blocks and boards, plus a pretty handy FG% to boot. Yes please. Rajon Rondo is another. He is only going to get more fantasy relevance in that extremely old Boston team as the season progresses. Pick away I say. I’m not sure if Josh Smith or Andre Iguodala qualify in the same way, but they only took 5.2 attempts each game last season so who knows.
In the end, this trend seems to just be the done thing because that’s how the majority of the experts rate FT% and it’s impact on your team. I am more sceptical and probably won’t be taking any of the above players (apart from Smith if he falls far enough) in any of my drafts. Maybe this is showing my ignorance, but it is what it is.
Here are some other things which might make more sense than what you just read:
A look ahead at the possibilities for Blake Griffin this season.
Fantasy Point Guard Rankings from FantasyBasketballDaily.
Damn Lies and Statistics are into the 6th round of their 4 man mock draft, which includes Doc A from Rotoworld.
Furthermore, GMTR should have some more team previews up soon, while Jason at fBasketballBlog will have Round 7 of our Two Man Mock Draft soon.
