Overrated In a Napoleon Dynamite kind of way: Fantasy Basketball at it’s most awkward

Whats the most overrated film you have ever seen? It might have actually been a decent film, but despite the best efforts of your friends to convince you otherwise, you just don’t think it’s the next To Kill A Mockingbird (the actual greatest film of all time). For me, it has to be Napoleon Dynamite. Funny? Yes. Hilarious? No. And what’s with all the stupid red indie t-shirts? Get bent Napoleon Dynamite. Anyway, to try and draw a comparison, these are just a few players who I think will be overrated in the upcoming season.

Let me make it clear before I begin. They don’t suck. Some will even get drafted pretty early. Just I think, personally, many of them will go way before their time because of their name, past achievements or the inevitable hype machine which surrounds certain players.

Stephen Jackson: I hear your cries. He’s so awesome. No-one else at the Bobcats knows how to shoot. Ray Felton has left which will boost his assist totals. I understand all this. But here are the underlying foundations of the S-Jax bandwagon. The Bobcats are the most offensively challenged NBA team. Even though they might score more points than other teams at times, this is purely by fluke. With this new found offensive responsbility will come a drop in FG% (from 42.3%, if that’s even possible), an increase in turnovers (hello 4+ per game to lead the league) and more worries about moodiness than any manager can handle. There is a real possibility he will put up 20/5/5, but for that chance, you will have to snap him up in the third round. The risk? He ends up averaging 17/4/4 with two category killers. Yuck. Overrated factor: The Matrix Reloaded.

Darko Milicic: There has been a lot of talk about Milicic recently thanks to his new contract. TrueHoop has a bet and HP wrote one of my favorite articles of the off-season about him.  All of this equals predictions verging on the range of stupid. I’ll lay this one on you. My housemate (let’s call him LITTOGA – love in the time of Gilbert Arenas) is a pretty big fantasy fan. He freely admits he hasn’t been following the off-season that strongly but laid down the claim that Darko could average 4+ assists per game this season. 4!!!! This was later revised to 3 after a little thought. Let’s check out the facts. The T’Wolves offense is as much of a triangle as David Khan’s forehead. Milicic has never averaged more than 1.8 assists per game (this was last season in 24 games with Minny). Darko has played for 5 teams in 5 seasons. I’ll accept that he could perhaps have his best season ever, say 10 points, 8 boards, 1.5 blocks, 2 assists but this still isn’t good enough to crack the majority of fantasy leagues before the 12th round. Lesson: Trust the past. Overrated factor: John Mayer’s Fourth Studio album (no-one actually rates it at all, just your weirdo housemate. True story.)

John Wall: There will be disagreement here. However wait until you start playing on the shiny Yahoo mock draft toy and see Wall’s name start coming off in the mid-fourth round in September and watch it creep up to the third by late October. It’s going to happen. And sure, you can go ahead and pick him there if you like watching your money disappear late at nights in dark casino’s, but the fact is, he is an untested point guard in a strange back court situation. It’ll be like having the good jesus and bad jesus sitting on your shoulders with Hinrich and Arenas. Hinrich looks smart, says the right things, plays the right part and tries to teach while Arenas seems to be having all the fun, pulling all the ladies and getting all the laughs. If I was an impressionable 19 year old kid, I know what I’d be doing and it doesn’t involve listening to classical music post-game with the big K-dog. Wall will be a talented PG this season, but if you even think of taking him before 2nd tier picks like Earl Baron Davis, Derrick Rose or even my boy Ray Felton, your dreaming sunshine. Overrated factor: Sarah Palin, circa July 2008.

Hedo Turkoglu: The big Turk has escaped the rotten land of Canada for the more yellow pastures of Arizona and everyone thinks it’s a great move! More minutes, more smiling, more Steve Nash. It’s all good. But it’s only a certain amount of good if you get my drift. Remember, this is the same Hedo who liked to dance up a storm the night before games in Toronto and once so utterly confused people with his ‘ball’ speech for no apparent reason. Anyway, more factual evidence is required I feel. Forget 2008-09 (16/5/5, 1.7 treys) and start thinking about 2010-11 (14/6/4 with 1.2 treys). Sure, the difference isn’t amazing but it’s enough to not start thinking about the big bad Turk until a bit later than the jerk who just took him in the 4th round. Overrated factor: Heineken beer.

Manu Ginobili: Yeah, I’m look at you Jason. Don’t shake your head silently at your computer screen. Manu is a freak. The things he does on the Spurs when no-one else wants to do it is incredible. The problem is, sometimes Timmy D and Tony P do show up, and then he sort of cruises through games in 2nd gear. Last season was actually very productive for Manu. 16/4/5 with nearly 2 treys, wicked FT% and 1.4 steals. That’s delicious in 28 minutes a night. However it’s not third round delicious especially when you consider he still missed 7 games but that was somehow his lowest since 2003-04. Injuries, upcoming talent (George Hill, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair) all mean less touches for old dudes and the slow but inevitable transformation of the San Antonio Spurs. I would still be a Manu taker, but only in the mid-late 4th round and only if your team desperately needs assists/treys from a 2 guard spot. Overrated factor: The American Soccer Team (a draw with England isn’t anything to celebrate just quietly)

Monta Ellis: Here is where the fun begins. Monta is my prediction for one of the biggest drop offs in individual output this season. The Warriors are now firmly Stephen Curry’s team. Monta will see as much ball as Curry allows. Curry’s individual brilliance will be first option, closely followed by David Lee in the front court with a distant Monta number three on the pecking order. This isn’t necessarily a bad spot to be when your at the Warriors for fantasy production, but Mr Moped is going to seriously struggle to put up 25 points per game this season. 20 points? Sure. More than 5 assists? Never again. 3.8 turnovers? He will probably still manage even without the ball handling duties. You can bank the steals and an ever increasing three point production, but as a 2nd round pick? This scares the shit out of me. Overrated factor: Tony Romo, circa August every year.

I’ve got another 4 names sitting just below, but I might save them for a slow news day next week. If anyone can guess all 4 though, you can have a cookie. Hints: One brash young upstart, one overpaid 3 point camper, only one Atlanta Hawk (that’s a surprise) and one Team USA player who turns 86 at some point this season.

Other stuff….

GiveMeTheRock does the Charlotte Bobcats (also their latest player rankings)

Breaking down the Miami Heat, Guns N’ Roses Style over at FantasyBasketballDaily

The last round of Damn Lies and Statistics mock draft

This is a pretty interesting topic over at Matt Buser’s forum. First round H2H rankings. Some interesting speculation to say the least. Favorite quote to date? “Dwight Howard is the most overrated fantasy player of all time imo.”

Speaking of Mr Buser, an updated Yahoo Big Board