Fantasy Basketball 2010: The First Round Dilemma Pt. 3

In this final part of our series, I’m going to glance at something many people shy away from because it looks too ghastly and unworkable. He’s heavy and he ain’t my brother… Dwight Howard ladies and gentlemen! In the Yellow corner, we have Pau Gasol, who despite being beaten over the head by my big stick when I was angry last week, has kindly agreed to show up again (for more beating). After reading all those Roto biased lists around the mainstream fantasy sites, you might already be blinking. How can we compare these two? Well, let me tell you. A well constructed team built around Howard will wipe the floor with most of the crud other people try and compete with. This is Head to Head ONLY. Remember that before you start ranting.

(Please note that this post is being written to this song on loop, so excuse me for the bad language)

Let me put it out right out there. I’ve never drafted Dwight Howard and might never do so. However, this isn’t about that. This is about if someone held a gun to your head and said “Howard or Gasol?”, what your answer would be (after clarifying that it wasn’t Marc Gasol because that is sensible). H2H fantasy basketball allows you do dump categories. Categories. Plural. My advice with Howard? Give yourself a competitive advantage and dump TOs along with FT%. This means instead of worrying about people cramping your style with their 3.5 turnovers per game (hello Monta Ellis), you can pick people well before other people even start considering them. Let me explain. You want to pick Stephen Jackson but you know people will laugh at you if you do it before the 4th round. However if you take out his FT% and his TOs, Jackson was ranked #34 last season. So go ahead and take him with your late 3rd round pick. No-one else is willing because he doesn’t conform to their standards of what ’3rd round value’ is, but he suits you perfectly with Dwight.

So, now we’ve established the way forward after we pick Howard, why should we pick Howard? Because quite simply, he has been a top 3 Fantasy H2H player in the last two seasons if you remove his FT% and TOs. That’s a pretty good reason right there. With league leading numbers in both boards and blocks, together with a pretty wicked FG%, you can literally bank those categories as long as you don’t pick like David Khan for the remainder of the draft. In some unsolicited advice, here are a list of players who go great with Howard – Rajon Rondo, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, Stephen Jackson, Tyrus Thomas (god love him), Tim Duncan, Andrew Bogut, Rudy Gay, Trevor Ariza, Antwan Jamison, Lamar Odom, Blake Griffin and my personal favourite, Andris Biedrins. Sure, most of them are big guys who have trouble with their FT% but you can also trade target guards who are apparently having trouble with their stroke and steal them with lower value players than would otherwise be necessary. Drafting Howard is a great option. But that’s only Part A. Part B is where it all succeeds or collapses in a massive pile of horse crud. On Howard personally, can I just say I also think you will see an uptick in his FT% this season, per offsetting his absolute negative status as a FT% killer. Further, his offensive game gets better every off season and eventually he is going to pull it all together. Remember: He is 25 years old and hasn’t even entered the prime of his career.

I’ve actually tried very hard to like Pau Gasol. He played for years on a pretty average franchise. He did it with esteem and pride. He was not a dick when it came to winning. But despite this, I just don’t like the guy. Call me a hater, but that’s just the way I am. Recognising these facts, I’ll try to stick to the objective truth.

Essentially, my argument boils down to this (in the post below about Pau Gasol):

Over the past three seasons with the Lakers, his FG% has steadily dropped from a high of 59% to 53% last season.

You know what I don’t like? A PF/C whose FG% drops consistently over 150 games with the same club. It’s just not very nice. What can we expect this year? Slightly less of everything. Gasol has a career average rebound per game of 9.0. Last season, he averaged 11.3. Yes he did play very well, but can we expect this again from a man who turned 30 in the offseason? Perhaps. But perhaps not. Can we expect his points to be maintained at such a high rate while the Lakers try and develop Andrew Bynum, who only just turned 23? Perhaps. Perhaps not. Will he play more than 75 games after missing 35 over the past three seasons? You know the rest by now. This is what is clear: Gasol is a first round draft pick in the vast majority of leagues. He is a very good fantasy player. He scores, boards, blocks and passes better than any other big man plus he is efficient. But with Gasol, at least in my eyes, you are unsure about his ability to turn it on, week after week, in a fashion that I want my big man to.

The end result? If you are not willing to punt categories, then Gasol is your man by a country mile. However Dwight Howard can be a very successful fantasy pick, even more so if you surround him by other players whose value increases by ignoring their faults. Relatively, it’s riskier – but hot damn, it’s exciting.

Endnote: I realise by putting in a photo with Pau Gasol and a Llama, I am probably not doing him justice. Sue me. If you want a Pau Gasol love blog, you can read all about it here.