Stephen ‘Fair Dinkum’ Curry
In a thread over the ‘the RX forum’, there is a post from a guy who took part in a recent RotoWorld Mock Draft for their magazine. It’s very good reading and I would recommend reading it in full for anyone interested in how drafting works for the ‘experts’. However just towards the end, the question is raised. Should Stephen Curry be ranked in the first round, and then, should he be ranked above Kobe Bryant? As Curry single handedly defeated my fantasy team on the last day of the season in 09-10, this question intrigues me. I have said before that I would be willing to take him in the top 5, but this position changes every time I re-think it.
The biggest thing about Curry for me is not his ability to put up stats, but the total unpredictability of what will occur this season. For young, up and coming players in their sophomore year, the gold standard has become Kevin Durant. Here are his rookie year stats followed by his second season.
1st season: 20.3 points (43% on 17.1 attempts, 87.3%FT on 5.6 attempts), 0.7 threes, 4.4 boards, 2.4 assists, 1 steal, .9 blocks, 2.9 turnovers
2nd season: 25.3 points (47.6% on 18.8 attempts, 86.3%FT on 7.1 attempts), 1.3 threes, 6.5 boards, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals, .7 blocks, 3.0 turnovers
That is some jump. However Durant was a player in a unique situation. He was a superstar in his own right and did not have teammates to defer to. I believe Curry is in very much the same boat. This Warriors team is already his. Monta Ellis is playing second fiddle (when not crashing his moped), while David Lee will slot right in and do as directed. The rest of the team is made up of D-Leagues and scrubs.
Curry started off as a timid player, unable to find his groove. In November 2009, he only played 29 minutes per game, succumbing to the Don Nelson game theory model of coaching. He shot 41% from the field, scored less than 10 points per game and had an assist to turnover ratio of nearly 2:1. Yet as the season wore on, even Nelson was forced to admit that this team would eventually end up as Curry’s. In the final eight games of the season, his limitless potential as a fantasy prospect bore fruit. While the Warriors did often play with only 6 or 7 players, Curry showed what could be glimpses of the future. 26 points, 8.1 assists, 4.3 threes (!), 6.4 boards and 2.6 steals per game. While this was a phenomenal stretch of play which will not be repeated at length this season, it does demonstrate that in the right situation, Curry has a place in the very top tier of fantasy players. Much like Durant was under valued in each of his first three seasons fantasy wise (he always out performed his average draft rank), Curry might well be the same, despite most people having him in the first round.
Google Image search result page two for Monta Ellis. Oddly fitting.
In relation to specific question posed about Kobe, there are some obvious key points of different. You know exactly what you are getting with Kobe (25/5/5 with extras kicked in). This isn’t the case with Curry and the Warriors system. The team has new owners, a coach who hasn’t done well since 2006 and a young core. If Nelson leaves or gets fired, Curry loses a lot of value very quickly. This won’t happen with Kobe. Conversely, Kobe is most probably going to sit/rest towards the end of the season. He has a history of being banged up but still playing on regardless. This has to stop eventually as he is entering his 15th season. He only played 25 games from February through to April in 2010.
At this point in time, I’m leaning more and more towards taking Curry above Bryant. His upside is too much to pass up, and the gambler within me says yes. He has a chance to be historic for a sophomore, especially if he starts the upcoming season as he finished the previous one.
Henry,
You do know that your linked article was from Dr. A from Rotoworld the other day, right? Just checking.
The premise of your article is quite valid, as it’s a good debate between Kobe and Curry, and Curry’s upside is greater. I’ll even say that Kobe’s downside is greater, as there will be games in the middle and late in the season where Kobe just doesn’t play, screwing you definitely in weekly league, and quite possibly in daily leagues as well.
No I didn’t Doneycat. Do you still have the link? I’ll pass on my thanks.
The best thing about Kobe is his ability and will to play through injury, but I just feel that as bodies get older, this has to stop eventually and resting is inevitable at some point.
Here’s the article Doneycat is referring to: http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NBA&columnid=47&articleid=35799
I love Curry this season as a sure-fire first-rounder, but I still can’t get myself to like him more than Kobe for fantasy purposes. I see Nellie as both a boon and a risk for Curry’s value (though his departure will surely mean a lower ceiling for the sophomore), and with Lee on board, it’s tough for me to see Curry getting all that many more shots/touches.
Kobe’s just the surer thing at this point, though Curry is definitely sexier. Maybe I’m too conservative, but taking Curry in the top five seems incredibly ballsy to me.
I also wouldn’t discount the Miami Heat factor for Kobe. I think that new trio pisses him off and will add fuel to his fury, which can only be good. And if the Heat meet expectations, Kobe will have to play down the stretch to ensure home-court advantage through the Finals.