How much does it hurt? Chris Bosh moves on

From what I’ve read recently, most people will still be happy to take LeBron James as a number two pick, while Dwyane Wade is no slouch either, coming in at between six and eight. However, Chris Bosh has gone from first round lock to barely scrapping into the second round. Is this a fair assumption? Let’s check it out.

In Toronto, Bosh earned his fantasy meal ticket primarily because of three things. In 2009-10, he dropped 24 points a game, added 10.8 boards and had excellent percentages (.516FG on 16.6 attempts and .797FT on 8.4 attempts). The other categories (blocks, three’s, assists, steals, TO) were all pretty stock standard for a PF/C, so let’s leave them alone for the moment.

How will these numbers move in Miami? Two levels here, easy to predict and hard to predict. Easy first. The percentages are safe. Unless he forgets how to hit 18 foot jumpers and free throws, and if he did, Dwyane Wade would not be a happy camper, then these numbers are if anything going to rise. When you have Wade and James giving you the ball, hogging all the attention from the defense, it’s a safe bet to think that FG% will nudge up by 2-3%. Locked it. Furthermore, opposing teams are going to be in all sorts of foul trouble from the 2nd quarter onwards vs. the Heat, especially big men who get tangled up when the driving to the hoop party really begins. That means, that while the opportunity to create freebies on shots will decrease personally for Bosh presuming he gets a reduced number of looks, it will be easier to score and opportunities will come in non-shooting situations. Thus, those 8.4 attempts might fall a tad, but nothing to be worried about (in the 7-8 range).

To the problems. Rebounds. 10.8 is a lot of boards. The Raptors played a pretty up tempo basketball style, with lots of opportunities to score. The Heat were slowly last season in possessions per game, but should get faster this year. That said, Wade and James are both high rebounding players and the addition of Big Z is not going to help matters either. In Toronto, Bosh only had Andrea Bargnani to grab a pathetic 6 boards a game. Despite only starting in 6 of his 63 games last season, Z still managed 5.4 boards per game. So when we take into account these factors, it is more than reasonable to think that Bosh might only average between 7.5 and 8.5 boards a game, which is a pretty substantial hit and puts him on a level with a whole bunch of pretty average big men such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden (who only needed 23 mins/g to achieve it). If your chasing quality boards in the second round, I would look past Bosh and perhaps at David Lee or Gerald Wallace.

For me, scoring is much more a mystery. 16.6 field goal attempts per game seems like a lot. But given the context of the Raptors, it really isn’t. There wasn’t another player chucking up that many and for a dominant offensive big man, it’s a little disappointing. At Miami, Bosh will be the only inside presence, much like at the Raptors, but he prefers those dinky jump shots which he is very good at. It really depends how teams decide to play the Heat. With double teams, Bosh will get more looks. However he is going to be the third option on this team, no if’s or butt’s about it. 13 attempts per game, at a slightly higher percentage should still create 20+ per night and I think this will happen. The Heat will be lucky to get 30 points from players apart from their Big Three (Chalmers, Miller, Z, Jones, Haslem, Arroyo etc), so even if Wade and James drop 25 each, Bosh still needs to play his role, which will be substantial.

Finally, I think that Bosh will be the one to stay on the floor a little bit longer than others when games are over or in junk time.  There is nothing scientific behind this, just a feeling. Bosh is clearly a good enough player to carry teams for stretches, as we saw in Toronto, so this will happen in Miami. Why not make that time to rest Wade and James? It makes sense and even if it’s just for 2-3 minutes per night averaged out over the season, that’s good for a bump in stats.

In the end, I think we are looking at approximately this: 21 points, 52.5% and 80.5%, 7.9 boards, with the other standards thrown in (2.9 assists, 1+ block and less than 2.5 turnovers). If you like your big men efficient, lean and mean, that’s good enough for the second round in my books. If you prefer players who dominate multiple categories but give up in others (Howard for example), then you will probably not be a fan this season.

And Toronto fans? You still have the former number one pick, the Italian Stallion himself, Andrea “Man On Campus” Bargnani.