Just One More Thing…
I was listening to the album by Drake the other day. I wasn’t excited. Here is a sample (from Fireworks):
I want to witness love / I never seen it close
yeah, but I guess I gotta find it first
Where is this going you ask? Well, I had heard a lot of hoo-ha about this album and I had some tiny expectations. Not many mind you, just a few small ones. Like a few good beats. Some agreeable lyrics. That type of stuff. Instead, I got this. Pretty disappointing. And this relates to fantasy basketball how? As I’m doing this mock draft after a bit of time away from thinking about numbers and individual ball players, it made me think. Which of these players am I pretty ho-hum about because they are lacking that… special something. Like Drake, these players really want to please me (awkward) but it just doesn’t happen. So I’m going to suggest ways for them to make me listen.
Rudy Gay: Get a Ruben Patterson mask, give it to O.J Mayo and tell him to jump out at Zach Randolph. It’ll be funny. I promise. Not only that, but his scoring and rebounding will gain about 25%, finally making him worth that 3rd round pick everyone says he is.
J.J Reddick: Despite the massive new contract, Reddick is still stuck behind Vince Carter on the depth chart. This one is easy. Sign up for one of those internet diploma things which you can complete in less than 10 hours (lots of time when you are only playing 17 minutes a night) and when complete, leave it in his locker. There is nothing VC likes more than a graduation ceremony. Repeat. That’s 7th round material, eat your heart out Ray Allen.
Joel Anthony: Life is pretty grim when you have Chris Bosh and Juwan freaking Howard ahead of you on the depth chart. But you know what? Juwan has a history. Of allegedly stealing sun glasses. It would almost be hilarious if he wasn’t earning millions of dollars per season, but whatever. It’s already summer time down at South Beach. So step outside, go purchase that now suddenly on special #4 Raptors jersey and get seen stealing. This one’s for Canada and all those good sun glasses wearing folks out there.
Kirk Hinrich: Finally, poor old Kirk. Kicked out of lovely Chi-town just for his delicious contract. And where does he find himself? In the back court of doom. Not only does he have to suit up with Mr. Bang Bang himself, but John Wall ain’t no sweetheart either. Breaking and Entering. Community Service. Good Behaviour Bond. The best way to make him rage and do something silly? Keep telling him the completely unbelievable truth. That JaVale McGee, that tall dude who hangs around practice but doesn’t really do that much and scares the kids, that guy nearly made the Team USA roster. He won’t believe. I can’t believe it. But it’s the truth. That’d push anybody over the edge (for his own personal safety and fantasy value, just don’t tell Gilbert…)
Some (of the many) myths about the 2010-11 Fantasy Basketball Season
“Surely nobody saw the sorry collection of talent I overpaid to assemble proceed to underachieve spectacularly. At least, I hope nobody saw that.”
According to Doc Funk, this is what Bryan Colangelo is saying when he talks about the ‘failings’ of Chris Bosh. More power to you Mr Funk. But to totally take this quote out of perspective, it applies to so many other things in life apart from bad Toronto Raptor player contracts. Like fantasy picks. Over-priced, half-baked players (not just Michael Beasley) who get by on past achievements and their good looks (and not just Joakim Noah). The rankings have started to appear but the mainstream, like everything else mainstream, often gets the easiest things wrong because popularity trumps smarts these days in almost every arena. So let’s break down some of the myths about certain fantasy players for the upcoming season.
Tyreke Evans > Rondo/Kidd: This just doesn’t add up for me. The Kings have all of a sudden become a pretty impressive list. They have added a legit power forward beast in DeMarcus Cousins who is going to be demanding the ball. Carl Landry is slotting in off the bench. Sam Dalembert is going have a ridiculous TRB%. At the start of last year it was the Jason Thompson sleeper contest. This year he is hardly talked about, indicating their depth. Francesco Garcia is back from his bouncy ball injury and Omri Casspi has grown up another year and is ready to showcase in cities apart from just New York. Evans isn’t going to get the opportunity to go improve on his 20/5/5 which by the way, was ONLY achieved because the whole organisation from the GM and coach down were spoon feeding him minutes to get to those stats. In March, he averaged a minute and a half more than his season average, despite playing for a team without a chance at making the playoffs. Everyone marks down Derrick Rose not being able to hit three’s, but Evans only managed .5 per game. Plus at the guard, like Rondo, he is destroying your FT% (75% on 6.5 per). The difference? Rondo is a legitimate triple double threat every single night whereas Evans is still learning the game on a beefed up team. Let it be clear. I’m not Evans hater. I just don’t see him above Kidd or Rondo on the PG pecking order this season. Point guards are meant to steal and get assists. Extra scoring and boards never hurt anyone, but if you can’t do the fundamentals of your position to an extremely high standard, you lose marks and fantasy value in my books.
Gilbert Arenas anywhere near Mo Williams (as seen on the Buser big board): This scares me. If there is only one player who could symbolize a Do Not Draft list, it would be Arenas. Two seasons destroyed by knee injuries. One season destroyed by gun charges. At least when Yao goes down he does it with style. Mo Williams has never been the man. He only lasted one season at the Jazz and with the Bucks there was always someone in front of him (Michael Redd of all people). Of course, at the Cavs all he has had to do is occasionally bring the ball up, knock down a couple of free throws per game and camp outside the three point line. This all changes. Mo Williams is THE MAN in Cleveland. Antwan Jamison is too old, J.J Hickson is too young. He is going to have a major season. And everyone is going to wait for him to fall for them. Be brave, take him early. And if you are even thinking about Arenas before the late 5th round, go watch some John Wall mix tapes and get back to me.
Paul Millsap not being awesome: If the last one scared me, this CBS ranking page is like a all consuming black hole. Now I know CBS uses some whacky points based system which is impossible to understand, but here are a few of the names of the ‘forwards’ before Millsap (who comes in at #56… not total… excluding all guards and centers). Corey Brewer; Thad Young; Shawn Marion; Grant Hill; and my personal favorite, the afore mentioned Jason Thompson at #47. Now Millsap isn’t going to light it up this season even with Boozer having exited stage right. Okur and Al Jefferson will soak up minutes, but this is the same Millsap who played in every game last season and managed 11.6 points/6.8 boards/1.2 blocks with 53% from the field in less than 28 minutes. With more opportunity (and that’s what he will get this season), these numbers will spike. But even if they didn’t, that list of hacks still shouldn’t be appearing on any rankings list come October.
Cheer up Perk, you don't have to sit with Mr. Glum anymore (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)
Bill Walker playing more minutes than Kelenna Azubuike: You remember Bill Walker right? Sure you do. Celtics bench warmer. Good at looking glum. Has crazy eyes. Well, he arrived in NYC last season and found out that he was actually allowed on the court long enough to score some points. However, this Yahoo depth chart (dated 29 July) must be some sort of sycophant because it has him as the starting two guard! Sheesh. I guess all that time backing up Ray Allen must have taught him to shoot right? Well he did manage to knock down some three’s in the 27 games he did play but this was because Chris Duhon was the next best shooter after Gallo. But now this Knicks team doesn’t need Walker and his ability to mop up minutes while others are injured or should not be playing. Azubuike though, he can straight up ball. Injured for the majority of last season with the Warriors, the year before he was an actual effective player. 32 minutes per game, 14 and 5, with near 1-1-1 extras. Nothing to jump up and down about, but a lot more than anything you will see from Bill Walker this season.
—
In some non-fantasy stuff. I just want to say, there are some very funny people on the internet. I know this stuff has probably been seen before, but it makes me laugh and on the off chance others haven’t seen it, check it out.
Followed closely by;
http://jeskeets.tumblr.com/post/866956695/kids-have-no-idea-how-much-money-nba-players-make
The real reason CP3 is staying with the Hornets.
Other basketball related stuff;
Best contracts under $40m by Hardwood P.
Fantasy outlook for the Rockets by GMTR.
And best of all, three fantasy experts (no, really) in the form of Jeff Andriesse, Tom Lorenzo and Greg Fox are having a live blog in about 3 hours by my count (Noon, American Eastern Standard Time). Check it out at Damn Lies and Statistics.
Those players you love to hate
Everyone who watches basketball loves to hate certain players. There are the Kobe haters, the LeBron haters (suddenly a lot more of these) etc. This is normally because the player is not on their team and tall poppy syndrome is forever high among casual fans. Just like George can’t believe Ted Danson makes $800,000, I don’t believe these players make useful fantasy additions and, no matter what spot they are in the draft, I will NEVER ever take them (again). In fact, the negative karma these fella’s have picked up along the way will consign you to a season of damnation. Like Indiana Pacers post Malice in the Palace damnation.
Mike Dunleavy Jr: There was one a time when Mike was an awesome basketball player. That time was long ago. He is now 30 and has managed to miss 79 games over the last two seasons. But worse than that? The games he actually did play. Slow. Inefficient. Boring. Which is why when I saw this forum post at Rotoworld with some dude (#4) saying he might go in the 7th round, my cereal jumped out of it’s bowl. Dunleavy did did me in two seasons ago when I took him in the middle rounds and he proceeded to play in 18 games for the season. I know it’s petty to hold a grudge, but I would buy a Carlos Arroyo jersey before I ever draft Mike Dunleavy.
Tayshaun Prince: Maybe it’s just his Yahoo mug shot, but there is something not quite right about Prince. A 6’9 dude who was born in Compton and plies his trade on the streets on Detroit should just be better, tougher and more aggressive than Prince. I see the equivalent of a walking mop whenever I watch a Pistons game and it annoys the hell out of me. These are all pretty superficial emotions I am feeling so here are some fantasy facts. Prince has never averaged more than 5.8 made field goal attempts per game (which happened to occur last season). 5.8? That’s how many Wheat-Bix Brett Lee has for breakfast, not the amount of field goals I want from my mid-late round draft pick. CBS fantasy had him pegged with an average draft rank of 86 last season. Basketball monster put him at 116 after the season had finished. At least when Jose Calderon ends up at 126, you know he at least had a chance to do something special. There was hope. There was life. Tayshaun gives you none of that. He is a great big jar of below average fantasy mediocrity. Yuck.
David West: This one I can’t actually rationally explain (unlike the others you snicker). In my first fantasy draft, I grabbed West in the 6th or 7th round I think. I didn’t know who he was. After a bit of research, I was pretty happy with myself. A diamond in the rough as it were. But then I traded him for an inexplicit reason and West is paying for that personal error ever since. West is the 18th pick in the uber 2003 draft class. He is also a perennial 3rd round fantasy pick. But this selection carries with it much baggage. Last season, with CP3 not around much, his field goal attempted shrunk by nearly 2 shots per game. Surely with the best player on the team sitting on the pine, the 2nd best player needs to step up, demand the ball and dominate games like J.R ‘Earl’ Smith at a summer league game. But that never happened. The Hornets instead looked to their promising young guns and Emeka Okafor who could hardly stand on one leg.
Mike Conley: This 4th pick out of the 2007 draft was so good in his rookie year, the Grizzles reached for combo guard the next year (Mayo) just as a little bit of protection, at the time giving up a much needed big man (Kevin Love). Conely is interesting as normally I love guys that have stamina and love to play lots of games per season. He has only missed two games in the last two seasons. What but actually occurs when he is on the court? Not much. Despite being a shot-adverse PG (less than 10 shots per game over three seasons), he still can’t manage to find assists (5.3 last season, a career high). A lot of this has to do with the Griz and their style of play. However I don’t care for niceties like that. See ya Mike Conely. (As a sidenote: Did you know Hasheem Thabeet will earn more money this season than O.J Mayo? Think about it. Thank you rookie pay scale.)
Kevin Martin: I end this bile of pessimism by mentioning someone who is probably on a whole bunch of these lists. But let me tell you, my story is better than yours. Last season, Martin had a scorching start. I was so excited after I drafted him nice and early that I was already looking past his injury plagued history and somehow rooting for the Kings. Then he got injured. And re-injured. If he had of played even above-average for those first days of the season, I would have been waving nicely to him in the rear view mirror. But those threes (3.6 per game). And that delicious FT% (.856 on 9.9 per game). How could I drop him? I couldn’t. Until he went to the Rockets. And injured himself again. Let me re-cap very quickly because it hurts so much. I held Martin for 32 games of zero production throughout the season. I dropped him eventually in late March. My Finals opponent picked him up and the disgusting son of a bitch scored 63 points in his last two games of the season. I lost my final 5-4. I lost points by 16. While I will forever blame Stephen Curry because he is a freak, Kevin Martin holds a special place in my heart as well.
I know you have these players as well. The irrational hatred for a player just because you can. I already feel better for sharing.
Two Man Draft – Round Two
Now that Jason over at fBasketballBlog has kicked off our two man draft, I’ll be tagging in and jumping to the second round. The idea here is not to make a simple list of players from 1 through to 156 (12 teams, 13 picks) but to try to think like owners and create teams which would be viable in the cut throat world of fantasy hoops. Some teams will be ‘all rounders’, while others will end up specializing in certain categories.
Shawn Kemp. No, he doesn't make an appearance in this draft, but I wish he did.
Before we begin, let it be known I have a bias against point guards and this is purely H2H stuff.
13. Steve Nash: While I dislike point guards, when you take David Lee and his lack of blocks, you don’t have much of a choice. Nash is the best left on the board. He is a perfect fit in the Suns system, and even without Amar’e on the pick ‘n roll, he will get his numbers. Mostly this is for assists but I see Nash taking a total leadership role this year which includes a higher scoring load, helping out points and threes. The Lee/Nash one-two hit puts this team in a great place to compete across all categories except blocks. With such a solid foundation, specialist players can be picked up later on to fill gaps.
14. Dwight Howard: You’ll be lucky to pick Howard up here in most leagues, but if you have the chance, you should take it. D12 rocks the entire package at the Center spot. Last year, he led the league with 13.2 boards and 2.8 blocks per game. Everyone knows about his deficiencies but with Gerald Wallace as the other pick, it’s time to start forgetting about free throws. Remember, there are still 8 other categories. Blocks are the hardest numbers to find in fantasy ball, but this team has already chalked up a significant advantage there. The underrated fact about Howard? He has only missed 3 games in the last 3 seasons. That’s fantasy gold.
15. Amar’e Stoudemire: New York basketball was built for Amar’e. In the form of Steve Nash, he has lost his Robin, but this Knicks team is begging for him. As I type, he is in Israel getting his Hebrew on. With Gallo playing the three man, AntRand sitting in the middle and Raymond Felton (a very misunderstood point guard) feeding him the ball, I’m excited for STAT this season. This fantasy team already has Dwyane Wade, and adding Amar’e creates that size advantage, building on Wade’s above average blocks for his position. For a big man who can give you 20/10 production, he doesn’t hurt you anywhere (2.6 turnovers, 77% FT in 09/10). He is definitely over his injury concerns after playing all 82 games last season.
16. Carmelo Anthony: Stephen Curry can do it all, so Melo is the perfect round two player who might not be much of an all round type of player, but knows how to make an impact in specific categories. Melo was a bonafide MVP candidate last season before Christmas. He is the purest scorer in the game, dropping a career high 28 points per game last season. His main strength is FT% (83% on 8.9 attempts). While some scorers struggle when their teams are slumping, Anthony is clutch when playing iso and lives for the big moments. Even if the Nuggets are up and down, like the end of last season, Anthony was still a staple for many fantasy champions. Curry and Anthony together allows this team to focus on big stats down the line.
17. Brook Lopez: The good things – Has never missed a game. Shoots 81% from the free throw line as a Center. Managed nearly 19 points per game despite the Nets only winning 12 games in 2009-10. The not so good – On a team full of nobodies, can only manage 13 shots per game. Blocked less shots in his second season despite playing 6 minutes more per game. Shot less than 50% from the field last season. This season is his for the taking, with a new coach and some good new teammates who will contribute to wins but won’t dominate the stats. In fantasy terms, that’s delicious. BroLo should be a 20/10 guy this season and because of his efficiency with the freebies, he is a rare type of player. Good centers are the hardest players to get. D-Will and Lopez are not going to take over the world this season, but you don’t win fantasy with your first two picks and this is a great start.
18. Rajon Rondo: When I first did this, Rondo was about 5 spots lower. But then I thought about it. What happens when you throw three old dudes together, with a sole focus on the playoffs, surround them by mid level talent and stop gaps (Hello Jermaine O’Neal) and try to keep it all together with an alien? The alien dominates. The only reason Rondo is not a top tier PG is his inability to hit free throws and he lack of three’s. However in the playoff’s last season, Rondo hit 37.5% from distance. I wouldn’t expect him to turn all Ray Allen on owners, but don’t be surprised when he has 2-3 per week. Who knows about his FT% though, that’s just rubbish. But as one of the highest rebounding point guards (4.4 per game) and near league leading thief (2.3 per game), he is a highly valued guard. Plus, he still has upside as the rest of his team will continue to fall off as they age. Perfect fit for Gasol if you follow the point guard/power forward strategy. Always remember, point guards who can’t shoot three’s is not the end of the world as so many experts think as three’s is one of the easiest categories to pick up in the latter rounds and on the waiver wire.
19. Josh Smith: A lot of players don’t like Josh Smith. But last season he turned a significant corner. Not only did he play 81 games, but he stopped taking three pointers. This was his biggest weakness and as a result, his FG% was over 50 last season. He does the dirty work (1.6 steals, 2.1 blocks) which many others don’t, but doesn’t suffer in the more voluminous categories (15.7 points, 8.7 boards). He is consistently bad at free throws, but with Danny Granger on board, there should be no issues here. Smith is the perfect second round option at this stage as he helps out nearly everywhere for a SF/PF. As a bonus, he had a career high 4.2 assists per game last season.
20. Al Jefferson: This is probably the first real reach. Jefferson is an unknown quantity at this point in time. He disappointed oh so many owners last season and I would be surprised to see him at this position in most drafts. But that unknown factor is also a bucket load of potential upside. In his first two seasons at the T’Wolves, he averaged 20+/10+ with blocks, steals and a healthy FT% to boot. The Jazz places him with one of the best point guards in the league which he has never experienced before, and while he will still be undersized, he is the best Center left on the board. Building on Bryant’s foundation for this team, Jefferson is a legitimate first tier center when healthy, which is hopefully all season.
21. Jason Kidd: I’m a bit wary of drafting two team-mates 1st and 2nd, but Kidd doesn’t really know how to stop. While there are reporters out of Dallas that he will be utilised less this season than those past, I’ll have to see it to believe it. He actually slightly increased his playing time and points per game last season. At 37, that’s impressive. He won’t score a ton, but that’s why Dirk is there. What he will do, hit the deep ball, dish out dimes, board and steal, are perfect for this spot. The more I think about it, the more these two tick every box when combined.
22. Chris Bosh: I’ve already written about Bosh and his potential here. You should be looking at 21/8 with a bunch of efficiency which I believe justifies this spot. He is a solid PF/C, missing only blocks as a facet of his game. Chris Paul and Chris Bosh is text book point guard/power forward strategy. Easy to consolidate around in future rounds and very hard to match up against. While quite conservative (and some would say boring), it is virtually risk free if injuries do not present.
23. Brandon Roy: This is first round talent stuck in a fragile body which scares off most owners. While I took him at 13 last year, probably a tad too soon, this year he is in free fall. But ask yourself what has changed? No new team-mates. No change in coach. This season’s Portland team is very similar to last years and that means Roy is a fantasy sneak if you can stomach the risk involved with the injury factor. With LBJ doing everything known to man on a basketball court, Roy will complement and extend this across nearly all categories. He is Kobe-light, but without the guarantee of 82 games.
24. Tyreke Evans: Durant is a hard pick to match up with, but if you go first, you get the benefit of double dipping at the 24/25 spot. So I’ve done the easy thing and picked the best available player. I’ll leave it up to Jason to really complement these two players with a third awesome option. I’ve seen predictions for Evans as high as 12 (!) but I still think he has a long way to go fantasy-wise. He might even fall back a step or two this season. DeMarcus Counsins will take some offense, as will the development of other young players on the roster, such as Omri Casspi. I don’t doubt Evan’s talent, just that with a roster which is getting pretty crowded, it looks like he will have to share the ball move this season. That said, great value at #24 and will fit like a glove with KD to cover all the bases.
So, to finish up. Durant/Evans, LBJ/Roy, CP3/CB4, Dirk/Kidd, Kobe/Jefferson, Granger/J Smoove, Gasol/Rondo, D-Will/Lopez, S Curry/Melo, Wade/Amar’e, Wallace/Howard and Nash/David Lee.
Over to you Jason…
Stephen ‘Fair Dinkum’ Curry
In a thread over the ‘the RX forum’, there is a post from a guy who took part in a recent RotoWorld Mock Draft for their magazine. It’s very good reading and I would recommend reading it in full for anyone interested in how drafting works for the ‘experts’. However just towards the end, the question is raised. Should Stephen Curry be ranked in the first round, and then, should he be ranked above Kobe Bryant? As Curry single handedly defeated my fantasy team on the last day of the season in 09-10, this question intrigues me. I have said before that I would be willing to take him in the top 5, but this position changes every time I re-think it.
The biggest thing about Curry for me is not his ability to put up stats, but the total unpredictability of what will occur this season. For young, up and coming players in their sophomore year, the gold standard has become Kevin Durant. Here are his rookie year stats followed by his second season.
1st season: 20.3 points (43% on 17.1 attempts, 87.3%FT on 5.6 attempts), 0.7 threes, 4.4 boards, 2.4 assists, 1 steal, .9 blocks, 2.9 turnovers
2nd season: 25.3 points (47.6% on 18.8 attempts, 86.3%FT on 7.1 attempts), 1.3 threes, 6.5 boards, 2.8 assists, 1.3 steals, .7 blocks, 3.0 turnovers
That is some jump. However Durant was a player in a unique situation. He was a superstar in his own right and did not have teammates to defer to. I believe Curry is in very much the same boat. This Warriors team is already his. Monta Ellis is playing second fiddle (when not crashing his moped), while David Lee will slot right in and do as directed. The rest of the team is made up of D-Leagues and scrubs.
Curry started off as a timid player, unable to find his groove. In November 2009, he only played 29 minutes per game, succumbing to the Don Nelson game theory model of coaching. He shot 41% from the field, scored less than 10 points per game and had an assist to turnover ratio of nearly 2:1. Yet as the season wore on, even Nelson was forced to admit that this team would eventually end up as Curry’s. In the final eight games of the season, his limitless potential as a fantasy prospect bore fruit. While the Warriors did often play with only 6 or 7 players, Curry showed what could be glimpses of the future. 26 points, 8.1 assists, 4.3 threes (!), 6.4 boards and 2.6 steals per game. While this was a phenomenal stretch of play which will not be repeated at length this season, it does demonstrate that in the right situation, Curry has a place in the very top tier of fantasy players. Much like Durant was under valued in each of his first three seasons fantasy wise (he always out performed his average draft rank), Curry might well be the same, despite most people having him in the first round.
Google Image search result page two for Monta Ellis. Oddly fitting.
In relation to specific question posed about Kobe, there are some obvious key points of different. You know exactly what you are getting with Kobe (25/5/5 with extras kicked in). This isn’t the case with Curry and the Warriors system. The team has new owners, a coach who hasn’t done well since 2006 and a young core. If Nelson leaves or gets fired, Curry loses a lot of value very quickly. This won’t happen with Kobe. Conversely, Kobe is most probably going to sit/rest towards the end of the season. He has a history of being banged up but still playing on regardless. This has to stop eventually as he is entering his 15th season. He only played 25 games from February through to April in 2010.
At this point in time, I’m leaning more and more towards taking Curry above Bryant. His upside is too much to pass up, and the gambler within me says yes. He has a chance to be historic for a sophomore, especially if he starts the upcoming season as he finished the previous one.
How much does it hurt? Chris Bosh moves on
From what I’ve read recently, most people will still be happy to take LeBron James as a number two pick, while Dwyane Wade is no slouch either, coming in at between six and eight. However, Chris Bosh has gone from first round lock to barely scrapping into the second round. Is this a fair assumption? Let’s check it out.
In Toronto, Bosh earned his fantasy meal ticket primarily because of three things. In 2009-10, he dropped 24 points a game, added 10.8 boards and had excellent percentages (.516FG on 16.6 attempts and .797FT on 8.4 attempts). The other categories (blocks, three’s, assists, steals, TO) were all pretty stock standard for a PF/C, so let’s leave them alone for the moment.
Not the first option anymore, but still a solid fantasy player (Image from SLAM 8/25/08)
How will these numbers move in Miami? Two levels here, easy to predict and hard to predict. Easy first. The percentages are safe. Unless he forgets how to hit 18 foot jumpers and free throws, and if he did, Dwyane Wade would not be a happy camper, then these numbers are if anything going to rise. When you have Wade and James giving you the ball, hogging all the attention from the defense, it’s a safe bet to think that FG% will nudge up by 2-3%. Locked it. Furthermore, opposing teams are going to be in all sorts of foul trouble from the 2nd quarter onwards vs. the Heat, especially big men who get tangled up when the driving to the hoop party really begins. That means, that while the opportunity to create freebies on shots will decrease personally for Bosh presuming he gets a reduced number of looks, it will be easier to score and opportunities will come in non-shooting situations. Thus, those 8.4 attempts might fall a tad, but nothing to be worried about (in the 7-8 range).
To the problems. Rebounds. 10.8 is a lot of boards. The Raptors played a pretty up tempo basketball style, with lots of opportunities to score. The Heat were slowly last season in possessions per game, but should get faster this year. That said, Wade and James are both high rebounding players and the addition of Big Z is not going to help matters either. In Toronto, Bosh only had Andrea Bargnani to grab a pathetic 6 boards a game. Despite only starting in 6 of his 63 games last season, Z still managed 5.4 boards per game. So when we take into account these factors, it is more than reasonable to think that Bosh might only average between 7.5 and 8.5 boards a game, which is a pretty substantial hit and puts him on a level with a whole bunch of pretty average big men such as LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden (who only needed 23 mins/g to achieve it). If your chasing quality boards in the second round, I would look past Bosh and perhaps at David Lee or Gerald Wallace.
For me, scoring is much more a mystery. 16.6 field goal attempts per game seems like a lot. But given the context of the Raptors, it really isn’t. There wasn’t another player chucking up that many and for a dominant offensive big man, it’s a little disappointing. At Miami, Bosh will be the only inside presence, much like at the Raptors, but he prefers those dinky jump shots which he is very good at. It really depends how teams decide to play the Heat. With double teams, Bosh will get more looks. However he is going to be the third option on this team, no if’s or butt’s about it. 13 attempts per game, at a slightly higher percentage should still create 20+ per night and I think this will happen. The Heat will be lucky to get 30 points from players apart from their Big Three (Chalmers, Miller, Z, Jones, Haslem, Arroyo etc), so even if Wade and James drop 25 each, Bosh still needs to play his role, which will be substantial.
Finally, I think that Bosh will be the one to stay on the floor a little bit longer than others when games are over or in junk time. There is nothing scientific behind this, just a feeling. Bosh is clearly a good enough player to carry teams for stretches, as we saw in Toronto, so this will happen in Miami. Why not make that time to rest Wade and James? It makes sense and even if it’s just for 2-3 minutes per night averaged out over the season, that’s good for a bump in stats.
In the end, I think we are looking at approximately this: 21 points, 52.5% and 80.5%, 7.9 boards, with the other standards thrown in (2.9 assists, 1+ block and less than 2.5 turnovers). If you like your big men efficient, lean and mean, that’s good enough for the second round in my books. If you prefer players who dominate multiple categories but give up in others (Howard for example), then you will probably not be a fan this season.
And Toronto fans? You still have the former number one pick, the Italian Stallion himself, Andrea “Man On Campus” Bargnani.
Things are looking up for the Raptors
A Guarantee
Unlike Mo Williams, I like to think I can deliver on my guarantee’s. I won’t make many of them, in fact, they will be very few and far between. But, here is the first for season 2010-11.
That file contains my draft notes from season 2009-10. I think the total time spent on creating it was approximately 37 minutes. Spelling mistakes and all. It’s not recommended reading although there might be a few chuckles at certain points. My personal favourite, which I think I have referenced before, “Yi (17-9? Treys)”. Optimistic? Yes. Thoughtful? No.
Anyway, the reason I bring this up is that I plan on doing a better set of notes this year, but also organising them into some kind of ‘draft guide’ which will be publically available. I’ll upload it on the side of the site when it’s done (aiming for early October). If there is any particular subject which people wish to know my thoughts on (not promising expert analysis here), then leave a note and I’ll make sure to include it. It won’t be as comprehensive as some draft guides (Yahoo, Basketball Prospectus, GMTR to name just a few) but if you are just a casual fantasy basketball fan, you are my audience.
I’ll also be running a few leagues, if there is any interest. I had a great time in the GMTR readers league last season, but would love a league with a bit more chatter, trades and personality (read: abusive smack talk). That’s still a few months away yet, but keep it in mind if you feel you would be to be berated by my friends who think they know more than you about fantasy basketball.
Over the next week or two, Jason (from fbasketballblog) and I will be doing a series of posts which aim to build a 12 team league over 13 rounds. We hope it makes sense, but it might all fall apart. Jason will be up first, with Round 1 up next week sometime, after which, I will respond with Round 2. Repeat.
Finally, thanks to Trey Kerby at Yahoo’s BDL blog for the shout out. It’s really good to see big websites still offering to help out the unknowns in the blogsphere. Much appreciated.
Where rankings are made
While most fantasy basketball enthusiasts are busy watching their baseball team or having a real life in the summertime, other, more evil hearted people, are conspiring against your team already. 3 months before the season has even nearly begun. Who are these people? Well, if something is wrong with sports, together with the blogosphere having disregard for it, it is only one of two things… Rugby League or ESPN. And since Rugby League should never be mentioned again, we’ll stick with ESPN.
Often those at the top are victim of tall poppy syndrome. See Rudd, Kevin. And often those emotions are completely unwarrented. However I feel safe in saying after ESPN’s last couple of big basketball stories (The Decision, the production of the NBA Finals), that in this case they completely deserve it. But why are they trying to destroy your fantasy team in mid-summer? I don’t know. The proof is here though. The ESPN Fantasy Basketball top 150 rankings. But Brian McKitsh is so cute? But ESPN is the only thing I use when I do my draft prep? Be damned people.
Here are but three issues with the above list (the July 19 Version).
1) There is no preface whatsoever about what type of rankings these area. Roto? H2H? 9 cats? No trade? Lots of trades? Incompetent owners? By having a quick glance, I can nearly deduct that it’s a Head to Head league because Dwight Howard is at number 7 and there is no asterisk near his name. You might casually say, this isn’t a big deal. But this is a MASSIVE deal. ESPN and Yahoo are the two biggest fantasy sites on the net. Nearly all beginners would be getting 95% of their advice from these sites and lists just like this. For Fantasy Basketball to ever grow into a real rival to the MLB or NFL, this sort of stuff has to be sorted out. If, into week three, you see that Dwight Howard is actually going to bust your balls in your newly minted Roto league and he was your first pick, how are you going to feel? Ask Tom Brady owners from two seasons ago. Some people will just have fun regardless, but some will not. They will not come back. They will not play again. It’s pretty simple in my books. A nice two sentence preface about what the list actually represents would go a long way in fantasy basketball circles.
2) Rajon Rondo (#22) and Chris Bosh (#23) have swapped spots since the last update (date unknown but after the Decision). Why did this occur? None of the 21 players above the list swapped places. No-one fell. No-one rose. However Rondo was deemed to have inched ahead of Bosh. Because of… His rad shoes? Well, maybe. But we can’t be sure as there is no explanation for this. I understand the need to get stuff out quickly, meet deadlines and keep things concise so people will read them, but what I don’t understand is how this list works and why people move up and down, because there is no commentary alongside it. And ESPN fantasy basketball analysis can be VERY good, when it takes the time and get’s it right.
3) Risk Aversion in the highest form. The two standouts for me here are Troy Murphy (#43) and Greg Oden (#150). Murphy might not be an amazing player. He is slow, doesn’t really contribute to winning actual basketball games and finds defending is sometimes just too hard. However, he is money in fantasy basketball. M-O-N-E-Y. I know people drop off after awhile, but this a dude who finished top 15 ranked (Yahoo Average Rankings) over the past two seasons and is in a CONTRACT year. C’mon people. 43? Wedged in between Joakim Noah and Baron Davis? B-Diddy??? It makes my blood boil. If you want the best big man to hit open three pointers and grab 10+ boards per game, look no further. The best small ball center in the league. Bar none.
This is where people might start losing me. Greg Oden has killed owners in the past. In fact, anyone who has ever drafted him, has been hurt eventually by his inability to stay on the court. But hear me out. Despite averaging 4.0 fouls per 22 minutes last season, listen to these November numbers. 12.9 points, 64% FG, 7.8 boards, 2.1 blocks AND he doesn’t kill your FT% (66.6% on a low 3.5 attempts for career). OK, so he is no Pau Gasol. True. But this kid (and he is still a kid) is on schedule for 5v5 practice in september and full ability by training camp. Yes, he has been injured. But you know what? So was Andrew Bogut for 4 seasons and now he is ranked #29. Greg Oden has disappointed in the past. But this is a guy who is built to play NBA basketball. He is deft on his feet, swift for a 7 footer and can just be beastly on the defensive end. Don’t reach for him in the 5th round, but the 10th round isn’t out of the question.
This is not meant to sound too harsh on ESPN. They have standards, editors and all sorts of crap I don’t understand. They also have a brand. However I think, despite the fact it’s only a game, as the gorilla in the room, there should be some more explanation around this type of stuff. These lists set the tone for everyone else. Bloggers read them and slowly turn conservative. Beginners read them and might never come back. From here, other lists are dreamed up and populated.
That’s enough ranting. I was planning on something much more positive, but that’ll have to wait until next time (no more stumbling across ESPN in the future).
In the meantime, links!
FantasyHoopster is back at it, as he couldn’t resist the urge to blog in the summertime. Nice. But please note, I do not condone any talk of Anthony Lin after last summer’s Anthony Randolph debacle.
GMTR are working their way through the NBA teams already. And with zingers like this, “At this point, if you’re interested in getting Ford for your pick-up team, Larry Bird wants to speak with you.”, how could you resist? I don’t wanna sound like a LeBron groupie, but Nels and Patrick really set the standard, even in mid-july.
I’ve only just been introduced to Daniel Eade on Twitter, and I don’t agree with much he has to say about LBJ, but it’s an interesting perspective regardless.
A super piece from FBasketballBlog on some myths and truths about fantasy basketball. He’s on the money with the majority of the strategies as well.
Until next time.
