Lucky for some: The impact of draft day and recent trades on fantasy values

For every action, there is a reaction. And the same goes in fantasy hoops. It’s great that so many rookies these days can have a significant impact for their teams, right off the bat so to speak. But on the flip side of that coin is the impact on already established players. The following is a bit of a list of players who have been affected, for better or worse, by recent events. I’ve got a very rough projection which obviously doesn’t account for further changes post July 1. We’ll post something similar on the wash up from the free agent bonanza which is approaching so very quickly.

Andre Iguodala:

AI as he prefers to be known has been a pretty consistent fantasy producer. While last season wasn’t his best, he still started all 82 games and dropped 17/6.5/5.8 with 1 trey and 1.7 steals along the way. Hopefully you didn’t draft him for his percentages. But with the arrival of Evan Turner, perhaps the most NBA ready player from the draft, are these precious numbers in danger? New coach Doug Collins is a personal favorite of AI who was in favor of his hiring. This is a good sign. Turner can also apparently play without the need to have the ball in his hands at all times. Another positive. When you throw in the fact that better players around you generally increase individual players efficiency, this looks like a winner. Buuuuut… there is a real chance Turner showcases everything he has from the get go. Rookie predictions are difficult but 16 points and 3.5 assists isn’t out of the question and I think these numbers directly impact on AI. Watch for his assists to drop but his ‘big man’ stats (boards, FG%) to rise as he moves to a permanent three man. Late 2^nd Round.

Danny Granger:

Let me start by saying I love Granger. I have never owned him but have always lusted after him. Does everything a good small forward should do. But the question has to be asked, why did the Pacers draft Granger v2.0 (or v0.2?) in the form of Paul George? Not exactly the best college player (George was named to the 2^nd all WAC team, not the first – And I don’t even know what WAC is) but he still was drafted at #10 due to excellent workouts. Granger is not in any danger of losing his spot, but who knows what will happen to a roster which has a budding young player sitting on the bench and the Pacers start the season 15-30, which I would say is a more than reasonable suggestion. Granger is still an automatic first rounder (albeit with an asterisk due to past injuries) but I don’t like what the Pacers are playing at with moves like this. Late 1^st Round.

Andrea Bargnani:

Bargnani could be the big winner in Toronto this summer in relation to fantasy production. Everyone knows he is perfect for your small ball team, but things could have just improved even more so. Ed Davis might not be the massive monster inside presense which the Raptors require, but he when he does play offense (which isn’t that often), he hates anything outside of 5 feet. Last season Davis took 0.4 jump shots per game, which means Bargs will be hanging out of the perimeter, taking lots of threes, plus doing basically whatever he wants. While he might cop the best big defender each night with Bosh leaving (presumed at this point in time), it should lead to an uptick in all things small ball (points, three’s). 4^th Round.

Sacramento Front Court:

How things change. This time last year it was the Thompson and Hawes show with people waiting in anticipation to draft them. This season, hopefully nothing like that occurs. Hawes has been shipped to Philly while Thompson will be plying his trade alongside Carl Landry, Dalembert (traded for Hawes) and the number five draft pick, self proclaimed best player in the draft, DeMarcus Cousins. So let’s begin quickly by dismissing Thompson. He is going to struggle for minutes on this loaded team and while he will chip in here and there, he is probably only a serious prospect if someone goes down. Cousins really is the wildcard here. He has been labeled many things, many not very nice, but he is confident in his abilities, as are the Kings (and the Pistons who wanted to drafted him as well). I think he will be OK on the offensive end but end up like most rookies and be extremely inconsistent. Nothing seems to impact on Carl Landry too much, whether it be traded, being a 6^th man or playing starter. He is the smallest of the front court and can play small forward. 18 points per game (what he averaged for Sac-Town last season) is too much of an ask, but a solid 15-5 with wicked cruel percentages is nothing to sneeze at. Dalembert is the final piece. He only played 25 minutes per game for the Sixers last year for 8 points, 9.5 boards and 1.8 blocks. Similar stats I see for this season but I would start him at Center and he is known for offensive busts and if he teams up well with Evans who loves to drive into the lane, opportunities could quickly open up. Thompson (undrafted), Landry (8^th Round), Dalembert (12^th Round).

Brook Lopez:

Get on board this train because it leaves the station early. Apart from Kevin Durant, Lopez is my favorite fantasy player. In H2H leagues, he is clearly the 3^rd best Center in the league (after Howard and Gasol), and if you are a punk and love roto leagues, he moves up a spot. And all of this after only two seasons! The trend will continue this year thanks to two extreme improvements to the Nets roster (note: all of this changes if the Net’s pick up an elite big man in free agency). The first occurred when Derrick Favors got drafted, providing some serious help on the inside defensively for Lopez. Then second happened when Yi Jianlian was traded to the Wizards, which provides Lopez with even more opportunity on the offensive end. Yi might not have been very good at actual basketball, but he ate up his fair share of offensive opportunities. BroLo is heading to a borderline first round pick after this season. New coach, new teammates. It all equals good times, like his draft night. Early 2^nd round (20/10 with two blocks).

Washington Backcourt:

John Wall givith, John Wall taketh away. While the #1 pick has done wonders for the Wizards, the organisation has decided to go a bit cuckoo in the process. Gilbert Arenas, whatever value he once had, has been halved again. ESPN has Wall (#44, seriously overvalued) a full 42 spots above Arenas (#86, a touch low) in their current fantasy rankings. Be it injuries, guns or just plain crazy, Arenas has it all. Obviously slotting in at shooting guard, he is going to lose a lot of his assists (7.2 last season), however in the process will drop his turnovers. Add to the mix the addition of Kirk Hinrich, apparently to become some kind of mentor to Wall (and maybe for his defense), and Gilbert just lost his 37 minutes per game as well. Oh well. Say goodbye to his 22 points, 4.2 boards and 1.3 steals. I think his three pointers made (2.0 in 09-10) will be the one aspect which doesn’t adjust too much. For Hinrich, I can’t see him finding 33 minutes per game this season. He is a defense first guy, who will chip in with threes and steals, similar to his role in Chicago. Probably not worth it in standard leagues. Arenas (8^th Round), Hinrich (undrafted).

Other things around the place worth reading:

FantasyBasketballDaily with their take on the Draft

Remembering the disappointment of last season